A beautiful Friday in Saratoga.

Well, the weather was beautiful, but the betting wasn't. Had to borrow $10 to buy this nice DraftKings Travers program.

But we have 14 more chances to make some money today.

Don’t be afraid to take some swings today.

Ideas on the Travers and the rest of the card below.

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Race 13 - The 2025 Travers

We went through this compact field in the Friday Four-Pack.

As a racing fan, I want this to be a good race. I want Magnitude to show up and give Sovereignty all he can handle.

Magnitude is fast, draws inside, and comes into this race fresh. I could see a scenario where he goes right to the front and tries to wire this group - he seems talented enough to do it.

The problem I have is that just to his right, you have Bracket Buster, who is also fast early. I can’t imagine they’re going to concede the lead to Magnitude. So either they go fast early and set it up for Sovereignty, or you’re betting at 2-1 or so that Magnitude can rate, where we have seen his best races have come running alone on the front end. I can’t see him getting that trip today. A 2-1 price tag isn’t enough for me to play him.

So you have these two battling on the front end, while Junior Alvarado and Sovereignty can bide their time. Already 2 for 2 at the distance, it looked like he was just getting going in the final furlong of the Jim Dandy. Reportedly working well, and Mott has had this spot pointed out for months. His only loss in 2025 was when he was not fully cranked in that Florida Derby and ran into Tappan Street; he’ll be 100% ready today.

I expect he’ll take control at the top of the stretch and win the 2025 Travers. I’ve come around on Strategic Focus for second, able to sit off the early pace and finish the race strongly with his newly equipped blinkers. If I play exactas, he’d be my choice with the favorite.

It feels like there are two camps: Camp Magnitude and Camp Sovereignty Coronation Party. I’m in the latter.

4-3-1 in the Travers.

Edit - initially wrote 5-3-1 because I’m a moron

As for the rest of the deep, deep Travers Day card

Race 1
Plenty of turf breeding on #4 Quiet Power. Watch the board to see if any of the other firsters are taking money. #6 Bottas has some buzz we probably should not ignore.

4-3-6

Race 2
Mike Maker gets to cut back #8 Vesting, and I’ll use prominently. Phil Antonnaci has had a great meet, and #3 Then is a player here, too.

8-3-1A

Race 3
Again, watch the board to see who takes the money. #3 Touch of Magic is a half to Guarana and appears to be working well.

3-5-4

Race 4
#1 Speightful Storm ran into a hot pace last time and can be involved here today with a better setup. Great numbers for trainer Paul Barrow when he adds blinkers.

1-7-10

Race 5***
#10 Silsbee had the trip from hell last time in the Galway and makes a lot of sense here. Marvelous Madison might be better sprinting and in an interesting price to use.

10-4-8

Race 6
Some track buzz on #1 My World, and I don’t think that 8-1 will hold. I’ll try #8 Stimulate as at FTS for Bill Mott. Again, watch where the money goes.

8-1-4

Race 7
#1 Play with Fire is no great price, but was wide last time on a day where inside speed was good.

1-3-4

Race 8
Draw a line through the last race on dirt, and #10 Summer Whirl looks very playable here. I’m using the #13 Roagna, had a bit of a trip.

10-13-2

Race 9 - The Personal Ensign
The scratch of Bernietakescharge will make things easier for #1 Randomized on the front end. Likes Saratoga, has the rail, and can win this race. Thorpedo Anna is a star, but will be overbet and is not as good as she was last year at this time.

1-6-7

Race 10 - The Allen Jerkens
Use as many as you can. A very difficult race to take a huge stand in. All of the three Baffert horses look good. Patch Adams is fast and drew well. Smoken Wicked looks like the real deal. In the end, I’ve always believed Chancer McPatrick would love this trip and win this race. Gets to cut back here and should have plenty of pace to run at.

4-2-1

Race 11 - The Ballerina
Most of my Pick 5 will go through #9 Hope Road. She can sit just off or go to the front and has always shown talent. Halina's Forte and My Mane Squeeze will find their way onto some backup tickets.

9-8-4

Race 12 - The Forego
Book’Em Danno is the horse to beat, I get it. But why can’t Most Wanted - cutting back and after chasing Fierceness two-back - win this at a price for Brad Cox? Should sit a nice trip off the speed and appears to be training well.

1-4-7

Race 13 - The Travers (see above)

Race 14 - The Get Out Race
Trainer Mike Maker deadly first off the claim and #4 Fire Agate can help us cash some tickets to close out the day. Note the #13 gets in is a player.

4-13-9-1

Just have to be right a few times to have a big day.

Good luck if you’re playing. And safe trips for all.

And Happy Travers! 🏇🏻🏇🏻🏇🏻

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I bet just one race on Friday’s card at Saratoga.

I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve bet one race, or zero races even, on a Friday card at Saratoga over the last…I don’t know, 20 years?

Saratoga is my favorite race meet of the year. I pour hours of work into each summer, trying to score a few times and win for the meet. It becomes both time-consuming and life-consuming.

But I couldn't muster any love for Friday’s card. It was a bad Saratoga card littered with six maiden races. There was just one winner that paid over $9.90 - a horse trained by Lisa Bartkowski, who worked for Phil Serpe but has run just six horses in her career as a trainer…and now two of them have won!

With no trip horses I was betting back and nothing appealing in the PPs, it was an easy pass day for me, even though it was a Friday at Saratoga.

But in racing - as in life - today is a new day.

NYRA has given us a super interesting 12-race slate with a bunch of fun betting races, at least on paper. The weather looks great. And we have the Kentucky Derby winner getting back to work in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun.

I give Brad Bryant and Mohegan Sun a lot of credit. As casinos and racetracks continue to push away the horseplayer, they just keep embracing them. They support racing through partnerships with NYRA to have their name on races like the Jim Dandy and the Woody Stephens.

And they continue to support horseplayers with events like Saturday’s Race Player’s Appreciation Day.

Just like you can count on one hand the number of Fridays I’ll pass on a Saratoga card, you can do the same with the number of racebooks or even racetracks in America that will be giving away thousands of dollars in free bets to their customers.

Mohegan Sun will be on Saturday, as they celebrate horseplayers in New England. And we need it, considering Massachusetts has said no to racing again, and the closest race track is 200 miles away in Saratoga Springs.

Looking forward to talking about the races with ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile and some loyal racing fans later Saturday at Mohegan.

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Just have to be right a few times to win today. Let’s look at Saturday’s card from Saratoga.

Race 1

Was between Otto the Conqueror and Friar Laurence, and I’ll go with the bigger price. Trainer Linda Rice had been good at claiming horses from Kentucky and running here. And it’s clear to this horseplayer that Kentucky and Churchill Downs have a much stronger dirt program than the NY circuit. This one beat Payne at a similar level last fall - Luis Saez also rode that day.

5-4-2

Race 2

A half to $800k earner, Kimbear, I’ll tab Further Ado on top. Shipped to Saratoga with a few bullet earned training at CD. Trainer Brad Cox 2yo, first-time starter, dirt, sprint SAR: 6 for his last 21, 29%, $3.81 ROI. Last five years 19% same category just at Saratoga. Soldier N Diplomat looks logical. Forever Man has some runners in his family, including 700K earner Corningstone.

6-4-7

Race 3

After bobbling last time and failing to get involved early, I’ll try Brave Buck in this low-level claimer. This guy made a small bid into the turn, then the jockey just held him together in the stretch. His race two-back wins this, and Irad sees fit to take the call. Tarpaulin had a tough start last time and fits here.

4-8-6

Race 4

Won’t spend much time trying to beat Arthur’s Ride. Last year’s Whitney winner has already shown he can win off a long layoff and has run well at Saratoga. Trademark was a pretty good horse a few years ago, and maybe his win last time woke him up a bit. Trainer Oliver had a lot of choices and shipped here with a horse that has early speed. Interesting exacta player.

1-2-3

Race 5

In an open turf sprint, I’ll try 10-1 Ready Set Twirl. Best career race came on the turf three back. Next time…well, that was not Prat’s finest ride of 2025. Now he drops in class and should be able to sit off the leader Korrongo. Trainer Malanie Giddings has two wins this meet, one of those in a turf sprint with this same jockey. Beyers fit and should be a price. Don’t settle for the chalk here.

11-9-6

Race 6

The ML favorite is trained by a trainer who is a 20% winner on the year but just a 10% winner here at Saratoga over the last five years. So, I was actively looking to bet against. I landed on #1 Roagna. Has run competitive races at this level for a year-plus. Last start was an obvious summer prep for a trainer who is 1-6, second off the layoff with these 6-month-plus breaks on the turf. BUT, he’s 4 for 6 hitting the board with those runners, with the only two failing to do it 49-1 and 57-1, respectively. Ready to fire his best race at a price, and that’s enough for me to take a swing. Have a soft spot for James H. Bond and Bond Stables, to be sure.

1-8-12

Race 7

The only filly in here with experience, Varja, also looks super quick from the gate. The trainer has strong second-start numbers and is clearly the horse to beat. Watch the board to see which firsters are getting bet. Immortalize and Tennessee Belle appear to be logical choices based on pedigree.

4-8-2

Race 8

In a statebred race on the dirt, why not a Finger Lakes shipper? Blamicker ran big last time. We’ve already seen 2x next-out winners from that race, and four runners who seem to validate the Beyer. Trainer used to pop with some prices here, but has just two wins in the last three Spa Summers - both in dirt sprints and both making their first start of the meet. Has a 23% hit rate with shippers over the last five years under these owners. Sir Kartrite might improve with Lasix for a good trainer.

4-8-9

Race 9

The three runners from the Wild Applause look tough here in this spot. Classic Q won that race, but did so on an inner turf course that was kind to speed horses on the inside. Meanwhile, Lavender Disaster had to stalk that one on the outside of the track. And Play with Fire could never run down the early speed. I like both of those better than the ML favorite here, and I’ll take the better price on top. If it’s not one of those three, maybe Good Long Cry at a price, as that one has faced good company and gets back to grass.

4-5-9

Update - Scratched into the 4 here, too bad.

Race 10 - The Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun

I’m probably being cute, but I’ll try to for the small upset with Baeza. He should have more early speed than the Derby winner on a track that plays well to inside/speed runners at this trip. Training very well for this race, and I love the confidence the connections are showing by shipping him here for this spot. This is a horse that still has some upside.

Sovereignty, of course, is the most likely winner and horse to beat. Training well, likes Saratoga, and should be able to sit a good trip. My thought is that he might not be fully cranked, as this is a clear prep for the Travers. He was in a similar spot in the Florida Derby when he was second to Tappan Street. I could see today’s race playing out like that one, where he runs well but is just second-best. It might also be true that his 85% is better than anyone’s 100% in here, and he just rolls. But at 3-1, I can back Baeza and sleep at night.

I’ll use the Top 2 as ‘As’ in the mandatory Pick 5 that ends with this race. I’ll play against Classic Q in the Lake George and hope to get my value back that way.

Mo Plex will be the early speed and he might be able to hang for a share. Sandman will be overbet, and Hill Road is just a slower version of Sovereignty.

1-5-3

Race 11

Don’t know how much of it was actually the jock’s fault, but a rough trip from Tahila at this level last time. Switches to a jockey who the trainer has three wins with already this summer. 6-1 would be a terrific price. Sassetti gets his own jockey upgrade and has run okay in two turf starts, the last one with some trouble early.

4-2-6

Race 12

Trainer Joe Sharp is a crazy 6 for 14 to start the 2025 Saratoga meet, and I like his horse here #8 Majorca. Best races have been showing speed, and this one adds blinkers after just missing at this level two-back. Sharp 25%, blinkers on, first off the claim, last five years. That includes a winner on the turf.

Edit - Tough scratch, but the race has definitely changed. I’ll take a shot with #6 Majestic Michael. Had early speed, and Justify had been a good influence on turf. Trainer is 3 for 7 early in her training career going dirt to turf. Go to the front and don’t look back.

6-10-7-11

🎪 Should be a fun card. Good luck if you’re playing, and safe trips for all. 🏇🏻

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Well, this was a new one.

When you hear people (like me) suggest that horse racing is not a serious sport, this is what they (we) mean.

Of course, it’s the second time in five months that they had to cancel at the Big A thanks to issues next door at the Resorts World Casino. From October -

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) has canceled Friday’s nine-race card at Belmont at the Big A, due to an ongoing maintenance issue at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.

Earlier Friday, Resorts World Casino treated the roof with a product that has created air quality issues on the building’s top floor which is occupied by live racing officials. As a result, Friday’s card is canceled in its entirety.

From the outside, it seems kind of silly, I know. But the people who make the sport go - the bettors and the owners - got royally stuck here. The owners entered their horses, only to be told there was no racing because of LOUD MUSIC. And the bettors who spent time and money handicapping the card and putting in the work had no races to bet.

There are plenty of other examples showing the sport is not serious, like the note from Sam Houston racecaller and sharp horseplayer Nick Tammaro this week.

He was a guest on Steve Byk’s show and suggested that “50-60%” of the total handle at Sam Houston is being bet by the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups. He used an example of a horse going into the gate at 5-2 and going off at 2-5. That’s insanity. This is in addition to the fact that because Sam Houston is not part of HISA, you can’t bet their races online. Bad stuff all around.

But this one—the races being canceled because a major race track could not communicate with its casino neighbors and the music was too loud—needs to be pointed out as another silly moment for the Sport of Kings.

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Did we give out the ice-cold superfecta in the Florida Derby here last week?

I like Bill Mott. I like Sovereignty. I’ll be happy to consider him in the Derby, but not at 8/5 today. I’ll take Tappan Street and hope that the talent Cox apparently sees is able to shine through at close to that 5-1 ML. The price play will be Neoequos - if he can set a sensible pace, he can hit the board at 10-1. Upgrade that one if speed is a plus today at Gulfstream.

9-10-1-8

It looks like we did! Ice-cold super in the Florida Derby. Thanks for the DMs, texts, and messages here. It's a nice result. I should have played the Super Hi-5, as my five contenders ran in my 1-2-3-4-5 order. I'm still down for the season on the Derby Trail, so I should probably shut up now.

17: 6-3-2
$102 in // $99.72 out
-$2.28 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
-2%

UAE Derby Instant Reaction

So they just ran this race as part of the Dubai World Cup.

Luxor Cafe didn’t run in this race, but his form was flattered when two horses he beat handily last time - Admire Daytona and Don in the Mood - ran first and third in this race Saturday morning.

There appears to be a very strong rail today on this track, so I don’t know what to make of the results other than to say that they make Luxor Cafe look like a more interesting Derby prospect, should he make the trip from Japan. I hope he does.

I thought the Heart of Honor ran a big race just to get beat and run second.

Flood Zone, who upset the Gotham Stakes last time, did no running at all and is likely out of any Derby picture. His result might also change your opinion of the Gotham and, in turn, some of the runners in today’s Wood Memorial.

I don’t think we saw the Derby winner in this race.

Wood Memorial (GII)

Aqueduct • New York, NY, USA 100-50-25-15-10
April 5, 2025 | 6:10 PM EDT
FS2, FanDuel TV

This is a fun race.

Note that some rain is in the forecast today in Ozone Park, NY, but we’re expecting a fast track. Looking at the Track Trends, there does not appear to be a consistent bias on wet tracks this season at the Big A. But if you notice one today, respond accordingly.

Sharp move by Bob Baffert to ship #1 Rodriguez here to NY. He’s run pretty well in all four of his career starts against the best horses in California. He deferred the lead to stablemate Barnes last time and ended up between horses for much of the race early on. Journalism went right by him and Citizen Bull like it was a walk in the park, but he might be really good. I don’t like the idea of him passing horses, but if Mike Smith sends from the rail, maybe he could wire here. Player.

Who else is going to press early? #5 Sand Devil stumbled last time, grabbed the lead, then saw 17-1 Flood Zone go by late. With a clean break, I’m betting this one is involved from the bell. I wonder if the added distance might be an issue for this son of Violence. Price will be okay, but this guy may be headed for a cutback. I liked this Linda Rice trainee a little more before Flood Zone bombed in the UAE Derby.

#7 Grande is also likely to be part of the pace here. I feel the same way about this guy that I felt about Todd Pletcher’s Disruptor last week - there’s some talent there, but he’s faced no real competition in a pair of starts. I guess he could move forward, but a few of these would have to not show up for him to win it. And at 5-1? No thanks.

I am interested in #11 Statesman for Shug. He’s taken his time with this guy, and it’s paid off with back-to-back wins. But a few issues. 1. Like Grande, he’s faced no one. 2. His last two races have been with Lasix, which he won’t have today. The positive is that the distance should be no issue, he has a solid foundation under him, and he’s likely to make a run late. Enough to win? Doubtful. But he’s a player on the bottom of trifecta tickets, for sure. Maybe even exactas.

#12 Omaha Omaha is 25th in the current Debry Points standings, and I am 100% convinced they’ll take back, make a run, and try to run into the number late to get points and make the Derby starting gate.

The horse I’m going to pick is #2 Captain Cook. Visually, this guy has been very impressive to me over his last two starts. Last time going this same distance, he was parked three-wide off the speed. Manny Franco looked super confident going into the stretch, and this guy responded when challenged by Surfside Moon. He was accelerating away from that one at the end. The trainer has handled this one with uber confidence, and I’m expecting a big effort here today.

I can see Rodriguez and Sand Devil going at it early, giving Captain Cook a few targets. And if Grande gets involved, maybe the race is fast enough for the closers to be players late.

2-1-11-12

Note I had Sand Devil third here before the UAE Derby…I might be overreacting by putting him outside the Top 4.

Blue Grass (GI)

Keeneland • Lexington, KY, USA 100-50-25-15-10
April 5, 2025
April 8, 2025

It was a tough break for racing fans who planned a trip to Opening Weekend at Keeneland, as Friday and Saturday’s cards were moved to Monday and Tuesday. Based on the rainfall in the last 72 hours, they made the right call.

I’ll be handicapping this race in video form on Tuesday morning and will post that video in the Substack Notes. You’ll also find it in the new “Video” tab on the SubStack App, which is pretty cool. Just have to be subscribed.

The Blue Grass is being run on a Tuesday - also pretty cool.

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Santa Anita Derby (GI)

Santa Anita Park • Arcadia, CA, USA 75, 37.5, and 18.75 (only five runners)
April 5, 2025 | 7:46 PM EDT
FanDuel TV, CNBC

Quick rant before my actual rant.

Note to the Daily Racing Form,

I am a consumer of your products, including the Clocker Report. On a day like today, when you offer works for Santa Anita, they should 100% include a horse like Rodriguez, who has been training at Santa Anita but is running in the Wood in New York. Your clocker has those works; just include them in the Santa Anita works! This happens all the time and is silly, especially in 2025. I might even send an email to customer service. Who knows?

Signed,

Your Pal Mut

Anyway, the actual rant. This is an important race. But having two trainers training four of the five entrants is a brutal scene for handicappers.

The story of the race is #1 Journalism. He was able to sit off a pair of Bob Baffert horses in the San Felipe, only to power home like a good one late. I am no workout expert, but his work on March 22 looked like a “wow” work and signals he’s coming into this one strong. That San Felipe was fast on every speed figure and with a similar trip to last time, he’s the winner here today. A big win here stamps him as the clear Derby favorite.

He ran down #3 Barnes in that one. Then Barnes got outworked by Cornucopian, who ran that silly race in Arkansas. Now Barnes’ other stablemate, #2 Citizen Bull, is showing up here. Both horses want to be on the lead. Citizen Bull already has enough points to get into the Derby - Barnes does not. Barnes does seem natually faster early so maybe he goes and they try rating Citizen Bull today?

Maybe a clue from some good reporting by Brad Free in the Daily Racing Form:

Citizen Bull’s pace rival in the Santa Anita Derby is stablemate Barnes, an impressive sprint winner in his first two starts. His stock dropped after he finished second to Journalism in the two-turn San Felipe. Baffert changed equipment on Barnes and removed blinkers in workouts, trying to teach him to ration his speed.

The works without blinkers did not go well. Barnes was outworked March 17 and March 23. Baffert re-equipped Barnes with blinkers for a Monday work. He settled behind a sacrificial workmate and then blew past.

So they put the blinkers back on Monday and still had him rate. It's a tough call, but maybe that’s the plan again on Saturday. Citizen Bull is a good horse, and a win here might make HIM the Derby Favorite. Tough if he’s able to cruise on the lead…

BUT, then you have the other two horses in the race, the same guy, John Shirreffs, also trains THEM BOTH. #5 Baeza has real talent but probably wants to stalk. So is his other horse #3 Westwood in there to try and soften up the Baffert speed early? Or is he in just to help fill the race? Maybe both?

Given all that, it’s hard to risk big money here: there are too many annoying variables.

I’m hoping we see Journalism and Citizen Bull throw down in the lane. I’ll hope there’s enough pace to set it up for Journalism late. I’m tossing Barnes after all this blinkers on/blinkers off/bad works stuff, and I’ll play Baeza 3rd and hope the trips out - he’s one to think about for the Preakness if he comes up short here today.

1-2-5

Four weeks from the Derby - time to get to work. Back here in the SubStack notes to handicap the Blue Grass on Tuesday.

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.

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Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian crushed last Sunday in a MSW race at Oaklawn on Rebel Day. He got a 101 Beyer, a 108 on Equibase and a 125 on TFUS, making his race as fast as any race run by a three-year-old this year. Baffert, of course, trained Triple Crown winner Justify - that one broke his maiden in February of 2018. This guy cost over $1 million at auction and is bred to be a good one: he’ll have to be to make the Derby off just a MSW race and say, the Arkansas Derby. But it is Baffert…

I wrote this four weeks ago here in Derby Prepping, pointing out that this year’s Derby Trial was so lacking in any sort of star power (buzz, really) that a maiden winner going 6F was a big story.

Four weeks later, Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian is indeed the story of the weekend. He’s entered in the Arkansas Derby and has been installed as the 7/5 ML favorite off just one career race. His chances here have been the biggest story in horse racing this week as it pertains to the 2025 Kentucky Derby.

One reason is the aforementioned lack of a ‘buzz horse’ on this year’s Trail: people want to see a WOW performance this time of year, and we have not really gotten it. Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and subsequent strong workout stamp him as the clear favorite in my opinion, but people don’t seem excited about him. Maybe it’s because he’s based in California and doesn’t have a big-name trainer. But his 108 Beyer puts him atop any real Derby list, and that’s deserving.

The second reason is Cornucopian’s trainer, Bob Baffert. He trained the superhorse and Triple Crown winner Justify, who had just two career races before winning the Santa Anita Derby. He’d go on to win the Triple Crown. Fair or not, this one is getting Justify comparisons.

With Baffert’s three-year Derby ban over, he’s eligible to run this year and likely to have at least one horse in the field. But his Arkansas Derby runner has the most buzz of any horse this weekend - maybe even this spring.

Took two swings at two prices last week - Vassimo (14-1) is just too slow. He’s Not Joking (11-1) was terrible and deserved that DRF comment line, "Never a factor.” We’re back in the red for the season. Boo.

15: 5-3-2
$90 in // $86.52 out
-$3.48 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
-3% ROI

Florida Derby (GI)

Gulfstream Park • Hallandale Beach, FL, USA 100-50-25-15-10
6:42 PM EDT
FanDuel TV, CNBC

It feels like this field has five contenders and five also-rans.

#2 Cool Intentions, #3 Smoken Boy, #5 Indecisiveness, #6 Jimmy’s Dailys and #7 Enterdadragon are the outsiderrs. Jimmy’s Dailys looks talented but also looks like a sprinter. Enterdadragon has a sharp trainer, but this is a tall ask, and his one dirt race was bad. He broke in at the start in that race but it was not that bad.

#1 Neoequos ran third in the Fountian of Youth and was on the pace. While there were only five dirt races that day, note that NO horses that were on the lead at the half-mile marker held on to win. This guy held third that day and came back with a big work on March 16. His trainer had been known to win with a price; he has speed and the rail, and maybe the track was against his last time. Maybe I’m telling myself a story, but this guy will be on the bottom of tickets and a backup in any horizontal plays. A player.

#4 Disruptor has just two career races but is 4-1 in this spot. The $1.15 million son of Gun Runner should be fine stretching out, but note that while Todd Pletcher is good with three-year-olds going sprint to route on the dirt (24%), that number drops to 8% (2 for 24) in graded stakes races. Pletcher is still looking for his Derby Horse, and owner Mike Repole will be watching closely with his St. John’s team bounced from the NCAA Tournament. Tough read here.

#8 Madaket Road ran pretty big to set the quick pace and then hold second in the Rebel. His March 16th work was strong, and Baffert sees fit to take the blinkers off here - he’s 4 for 10 with similar moves the last five years. If Mike Smith can get him to settle early, he could be there at the wire.

I like #9 Tappan Street. I thought he ran just as well as Burnham Square in the Holy Bull given his inexperience. He beat Multiverse in his debut and that one came came right back to win then almost won a stake, catching a 90 Beyer. He has a big closing kick, but he also has the speed to stay involved early. Super Trainer™️Brad Cox is taking his time with this guy and he’s been working well with the talented Saudi Crown. Has a shot today and one to think about for the remainder of 2025.

We picked #10 Sovereignty last time and got paid at almost 3.5 to 1 - no such luck on the price here. That was a significant effort off the layoff for Bill Mott, and he’s already got enough points to line up in the Derby starting gate. These outside posts at Gulfstream are challenging, even for closers. And if I think closers had an advantage in the Holy Bull, maybe this guy might be dressed up in this spot vs. this field. FWIW - Mott just 2 for 27 (7%) with three-year-olds on the dirt, going to route of ground, making second start off of layoff like this.

Colin Sheehan is a host on the Trust the Prophets Horse Racing Channel. He’s been on Sovereignty for months. I asked him what he thought about today’s race, knowing his ‘Derby horse’ already has the points to get into Derby 151.

“It's an interesting race today for a few reasons, and not winning isn’t a concern. For one, Sovereignty doesn’t need the points to qualify for the derby, and although winning the Florida Derby is a nice feather in the cap, it’s not the end goal.

It’s also interesting to see how he runs from the 10 post, a post at a mile and an eighth that has not been kind to past runners at Gulfstream. For Sovereignty, it shouldn't be as big a problem as he can drop back, save ground, and make his big run. But with it being a “disadvantage,” I’ll be looking to see how he handles some adversity because we know on Derby day that’s what he will face.

Lastly, he doesnt have his normal rider Junior Alvarado aboard. It will be interesting to see how he responds under someone unfamiliar with him. Some may question the quality of the field, but there are enough variables here to provide a test within the race, regardless of the ultimate result.

At the end of the day, I’m looking for him to show the ability to move thru traffic late and display that big stride, eating up lengths on the competition in the stretch with a solid top-three finish, which would satisfy my desire for him to remain my derby horse.”

Appreciate the thoughts from Colin. You can watch his shows on YouTube at this link. I do.

I like Bill Mott. I like Sovereignty. I’ll be happy to consider him in the Derby, but not at 8/5 today. I’ll take Tappan Street and hope that the talent Cox apparently sees is able to shine through at close to that 5-1 ML. The price play will be Neoequos - if he can set a sensible pace, he can hit the board at 10-1. Upgrade that one if speed is a plus today at Gulfstream.

9-10-1-8

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Arkansas Derby (GI)

Oaklawn Park • Hot Springs, AR, USA 100-50-25-15-10
7:48 PM EDT
FS1, FanDuel TV, CNBC

All eyes on #9 Cornucopian. Johnny V gets aboard, and the task should be simple - break clean and get to the front. The nice thing about most of these Baffert horses is that there’s not much guessing about the plan. Based on his first race and recent workouts (he looked much better than another Baffert horse, Barnes, on March 17), this guy is ready to run a big one. Yes, he’s short on experience, but note that Baffert is a guady 32% (11 for 34) going MSW win right into a stakes race the last five years. The one to beat.

And what’s great about this post is the only other speed, #5 Speed King, drew inside. So if that one wants to go, Johnny V can sit right off and stalk for the outside - that’s actually been a good trip this meet at Oaklawn. I suspect Speed King will go here after trying to rate last time, and there’s a world in which he could be in the mix late at 15-1. Maybe he and the Baffert are 1-2 around the track?

I like #6 Sandman. He’s going to come with a run, and he’s had some excuses. I expect he’ll make a run here again but based on the pace numbers, he’ll be last early.

The best story of the Derby Trail season is probably #8 Coal Battle. Trained by the little-known Lonnie Briley, this guy just wins. He’s 5 for 5 on dirt, and he’s shown the ability to either play on the lead or come from off the pace. Should be able to sit just off the two speeds and will be in range late…I just don’t know if he’s good enough as they stretch out again.

Trainer Steve Asmussen went on Steve Byk’s show last week and told everyone that Tiztastic would win the LA Derby- he was right. He went on this week and said #3 Publisher would win here. Blinkers on in this spot has not been a good move (0-9, just one in the money). Wet track would good for him and Prat aboard is interesting…but not for me.

#7 Monet’s Magic is 20-1 for a reason, but he had two good races before a tough trip in the Southwest. For the bottom of trifecta tickets.

I’m buying the hype. I think Cornucopian is talented and drew great in this spot. Can take off from the bell or sit off Speed King. He’s my pick. I can see Speed King getting into the exacta here and happy to play some 9-5s. Sandman has a solid foundation and a check here probably gets him into the Derby for Mark Casse.

9-5-6-7

Five weeks from the Derby…let’s go!

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.

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We’ll get to the handicapping in a second.

Got this DM on Wednesday night. And indeed, it checks out.

#4 Always Adriana was 16-1 going into the gate in Wednesday’s finale at Gulfstream Park. She breaks on top and gets to the lead.

First flash of the odds - 6-1. That’s right, 16-1 to 6-1 in the span of about 40 seconds.

This is wrong.

The fix is simple - stop taking bets a minute before the race. Or at least, like NYRA, block win bets from the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups with two minutes to post: I’ve written about this and talked about this here and on X.com for two years.

You can bet on any of eight NCAA College Basketball games on Saturday and be assured of your price when you make your bet: you will not be able to say the same if you’re betting Fair Grounds, Gulfstream, or a dozen other tracks this weekend.

Look, players are okay with some variance—you have to factor that in when it comes to parimutuel betting. But 16-1 to 6-1 is NOT OK, especially when the “projected odds” used by Gulfstream had the horse as 13-1. Even 13-1 to 6-1 feels criminal. 

Many of us have pointed this out and asked racing executives to make changes. Now, it’s time for the handicappers with a big TV platform—Jonathon Kinchen, Randy Moss, Andy Serling, Paul LoDuca, and the FanDuel TV stars—to say something!

You’re asking bettors to listen to you, watch your shows and videos, listen to your podcasts, and support your sponsors. How about supporting the players by saying something about this?

Will the track executives be annoyed? Sure, but that’s okay. You’re not going to get fired for supporting the customer. And if you are, you’ll be a hero. Pat Cummings and the NYRA folks can only do so much.

I keep hoping that the great Steven Crist will come out of retirement and write about this, but he’s done more for the player than 99.9% of racing media. Chuck Simon was happy to stand up and point out racing’s issues; his voice is severely missed.

It's time for someone with a bigger platform than a SubStack newsletter and a few thousand X.com followers to take the baton and fight for the player.

In 2025, what happened this week at Gulfstream needs to stop being such a common occurrence for the horseplayer.

Bob Baffert’s Getaway Car was dreadful in the Virginia Derby. Upgraded American Promise the way the track was playing, but not enough. And for the second time this Derby Trail season, I let the lousy workout opinion of a few racing media members cloud my judgment. Won’t happen again.

I liked Render Judgement as a price, and that one delivered, running second at big odds. But still a loser for the record-keeping.

13: 5-3-2
$78 in // $86.52 out
+$8.52 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
11 % ROI

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Grade II Louisiana Derby
Fair Grounds • New Orleans, LA, USA
Points: 100-50-25-15-10
6:42 EST (FanDuel TV/CNBC)

Fun, fun race. It is the latter of the two today, but let’s start here.

If you’re just looking at the Beyer Speed figures in the Daily Racing Form, then the 7/2 morning line on #1 John Hancock probably feels a little short. Every other horse in the field, save for one, has run faster on Beyer than this SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox trainee.

If you look at his numbers on TimeForm, which take the pace of a race into account when giving out a speed figure for a horse (and race), then he has the best number here. That’s thanks in part to the fast pace he battled last time in winning the Sam F. Davis stakes over Owen Almighty. That one came back to win the Tampa Bay Derby pretty handily, earning a 93 Beyer in the process.

He’s only had two races, but there is real talent here. Today, he gets the rail and should be going right from the bell. The inside is usually good at Fair Grounds, and that’s been backed up this meet by the data Ryan over at the Betting the Odds Substack has been keeping track of. Ryan’s putting some real work in to help the horseplayer make smarter bets.

Betting The Odds

How To Play Louisiana Derby Week at Fair Grounds

Fair Grounds Track Profile Week 17…

Read more

a year ago · Ryan

His numbers show that coming into the week, dirt route winners came from the 1-3 posts 53% of the time. Looking at the charts this week, six of the first seven dirt routes were again won by the three inside posts. Then, on Friday, you had three runners win from outside posts going a mile or more. Those three horses paid $7, $5 and $3, so they were logical. But it’s worth noting for Saturday, and I’ll be interested in how the track plays early in the card. There are four races on the dirt at a mile or longer before we get to this race. If the rail is strong, this guy is an upgrade for sure.

This is a long-winded way of saying that this guy is a legit player, even if you think he’s light on Beyer.

#6 Build is the morning line's 4-1 second choice. He has a couple of races that put him in the mix here. And the Risen Star is worth talking about. This guy launched a big (early) wide move around the turn. I’m guessing jockey Luis Saez saw the 43-1 shot Magnitude on the lead and figured he would blow right by. But Magnitude kept on going …and he was glued to a rail that’s been good at Fair Grounds. Built had a wide trip and got just beat for second by an oncoming Chunk of Gold. That one, who was also 43-1, rode that sweet rail all the way home to just get second. Off that trip and the potential bias he fought, Built is a player here.

I’ll say the move to blinkers is not a strong move for the trainer - just 1 for 24 adding blinkers, three-year-olds, on the dirt - and that one winner was wearing blinkers the first time out. A concern.

#2 Chunk of Gold is a toss for me off that last effort.

D. Wayne is back in here after winning last week’s prep, and #5 Caldera will take some money. He’s run faster as the races have gotten longer, and he shows two bullet works coming in. His runner-up to Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby looks less impressive after that one stunk in the VA Derby. I won’t be betting, which means I’m once again putting Mr. Lukas in the winner’s circle.

Let’s talk about #7 Vassimo. I liked this one in the Risen Star. He broke okay from the rail and was hustled out of there by Irad. He lost position on the backstretch and was flanked on each side for about half a mile. Heading into the far turn, he started dropping out of it. I thought he was done. With a wall of horses in front of him, Irad swung him out late, and as all the other horses were tiring, this guy was still coming. He came home faster than every horse other than the winner, Magnitude, who was glued to what might have been a strong rail. This guy was out in the middle of the track.

He’s a huge horse, and if you gave me 10-1, I’d bet him to win the Belmont Stakes right now. But he’s 12-1 in here, getting blinkers, and can get into the number today. Todd Pletcher 21 for 102 (21%) first-time blinkers, on the dirt, three-year-olds. When you filter for Graded Stakes, he’s 1 for 11, with Forte being the winner of the Jim Dandy a few summers ago in Saratoga. A player at a price.

#9 Instant Replay is also a player in here, the second of two for Cox. His 2025 debut was solid - my problem is he spent most of that race on the rail before mowing down Furio late. Looked impressive and got a 93 Beyer, but can’t help thinking he benefitted from the trip on the rail.

#8 Furio is a complete toss off that last effort.

#10 Hypnus….I guess he had some trouble late in the Rebel, but he had a good trip into the stretch and even without some traffic trouble, I don’t think he was getting into the Top 3.

If he’s able to break cleanly and get to the front at a sensible pace, I think John Hancock is the most likely winner. But I see some other speed in here that should juice things up early. Vassimo, blinkers on, can sit off the early vanguard and hopefully get more of an inside trip late. He’ll have to move forward, but that’s why he’ll be a good price, even with Irad aboard. I’ll take a shot and put him on top. Built should be right there, along with Instant Replay.

7-1-6-9

Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks
Turfway Park • Florence, KY, USA
Points: 100-50-25-15-10
6:25 EST

Hand up - there’s no worse synthetic handicapper in the country. If and when North American racing goes 100% rubber tire surface, I’ll be out. Please consider all of this as I walk through the Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Eight of the twelve horses here are coming in off a race on dirt or turf, not the Tapeta surface they’ll run on today. It adds an extra level of unknown to a race that already looks pretty wide open.

#9 Poster will probably go off the favorite, and I get it. Has run well on turf and dirt. Trainer Harty 19% (5 for 26) going dirt to synthetic - and he’s been a good synthetic trainer the last five years. Off the pace running style should suit him well here, too. Just don’t expect to get a price.

#3 California Burrito won the prep for this, but he got an easy lead there and held on late. Has to stretch out in this spot and will not get the same trip. Easy pass for me. I’d much prefer the runner-up, Baby Max, who should be able to sit a good trip. Or the third-place finisher, Maximum Promise, who was the only horse running late in that one and should get a better setup here. But there are a few prices I’m more interested in.

#12 He’s Not Joking ran well last year on the synthetic surface at Woodbine. Trainer Josie Carroll is very good and has a lot of experience with horses on Tapeta. She gets this one back to that surface after a couple of tries in graded company on dirt. Carroll is a solid 2 for 6 going dirt to synth with three-year-olds in stakes races the last five years. Note that Carroll has hit the board with seven of nine runners at Turfway this meet, and this one has a good workoiut coming in. And at 15-1 in an open race? I’ve made worse bets. MUCH worse.

#5 Flying Mohawk owns the best TimeForm number on turf coming into this. This one has back-to-back good races on the green - the last start was especially good, given the slow start. The trainer is just 1 for 20 going turf to synthetic, but at 15-1, again, I’ve made worse bets.

I’ll be taking a stand against the speed in here and have no interest in California Burrito. Poster might be the most likely winner, but I don’t want 3-1 in here. I’m going to trust in Josie Carroll and hope He’s Not Joking improves off some good races last year on Tapeta. Again, he should be a price, and I’ll take it as a good sign if this one takes some money tonight in Florence, KY.

12-9-10-5

Just six weeks until Derby 151. Time to lock in.

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.

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Day 1 of the National Horseplayers Championship is in the books.

A Chicago financial advisor, Dan Piazza, leads after the first day of the 26th NHC.

There in 70th place, just inside the cut-line of the Top 10% that would advance on to Day 3, (I think) is the second of two entries held by Elio Imborone, aka Mr. Ice of Barstool Sports fame.

His good friend and Barstool founder Dave Portony has given his advice for picks on that entry, at least based on his social media posts. Those posts saw a combined well over a million views on X.com Friday, giving the NHC their biggest social media boost…ever.

As I have written and discussed for two years in this newsletter, Dave, Elio, and Barstool are great for the growth of the sport—and you saw that front and center yesterday. I saw plenty in horse racing’s industrial media complex finally (and begrudgingly) admit that yesterday. Expect to hear it much more if The Syndicate makes it to the final table on Sunday. I wrote about this just yesterday.

Elio’s other entry sits in 651st place and will need a big move today to get into the Top 10%.

The boys and the rest of the NHC field will have plenty of chances on the tournament’s ‘movement day’ - they’ll have to bet 12 optional races and eight mandatory races. There will be chaos all day in Vegas.

A reminder that America’s Best Racing (ABR) will broadcast live this weekend from the NHC, with streaming video and handicapping coverage starting at 5 p.m. EST on Saturday. You can watch Dan Tordjman and Co. live on YouTube starting then.

With good racing across the country, it should be a great day to watch, wager, and cheer on the boys.

I have been lucky to work with people in sports betting and sports entertainment that realize there is still a place for the horseplayer in 2025. Mike and his team at The Brook in Seabrook, NH have built out a great place to watch and wager on the races. You can find old Seabrook, Rockingham Park, and Suffolk Downs regulars there seven days a week firing away on the races. The raceboom has an old school feel to it, with all the newer amenities you’d want when playing the races.

The first Kentucky Derby Party I ever attended was in the ballroom at Mohegan Sun. Racebook Manager Zach Montoya would go out of his way to take care of his players and give them a great place to play - he’s a big reason why people have been betting horses at Mohegan Sun for 20-plus years….and refuse to go anywhere else in Connecticut. He’s the best.

Brad ‘Bomba’ Bryant took over the expanded sportsbook a few years ago, when sports betting became legal in CT. Before I met him, I assumed they would only cut back on racing and push sports. I was wrong.

Rather than cut back on racing, he’s expanded on it, tuning his sportsbook into the biggest racebook on the East Coast for Derby, Belmont, and Breeders’ Cup.

He and his team are expanding it again this year, creating a Three-Day Kentucky Derby/Kentucky Oaks Extravaganza.

It will start with a free Kentucky Derby handicapping seminar on Thursday night in the FanDuel Sportsbook. I’ll be there and on Derby Day once again with my guy, ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile. And this year, jockey Chantal Sutherland will join us to handicap the races all weekend and give racing fans her insights from years of riding at some of the biggest race tracks in the world.

It will once again be a great Kentucky Derby at Mohegan Sun, and I hope to see some of you there.

Leading up to Derby 151, Brad and Mohegan Sun are running a Winner’s Circle Promotion, where someone is going to win a Woodford Reserve 150th Kentucky Derby Baccarat Edition Luxury Bottle, valued at over $12,000.

You can qualify by betting just $50 at the track that’s holding the Derby Prep race each Saturday in the Mohegan Sun Sportsbook, now through April 12th. You can collect multiple entries each week.

It’s a great excuse for me to sneak down there in a couple of weeks. All the details are right here. It’s a cool promotion that, again, rewards horseplayers.

As more and more casinos and venues are pushing the horseplayer out, places like Mohegan Sun and The Brook have become the exception - they’re welcoming the horseplayer and giving them a great place to spend the day.

Those are the places I want to support with my wagering dollars.

When we’re bad, we’ll write it. Same goes for when we’re good. And so far this Derby season, we’ve been pretty good.

12: 5-3-2
$72 in // $86.52 out
+$14.52 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)
20% ROI

Hoping to keep it going on the newest race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Virginia Derby
1 1/8 miles on the dirt
Colonial Downs • New Kent, VA, USA
5:10 EST on FanDuel TV

It seems like CDI just…invented this new race to give one of their tracks a Derby Prep race? I mean, it’s their race and they can do whatever they want, but it doesn't sit well with me.

The race - formerly a turf race run in the summer - will now be run on the dirt and award 50-25-15-10-5 Derby points to the top 5 finishers. Let’s look at the field, including a major scratch plus two others.

#1 Calling Card (15-1) - This guy? Again? I bet him in the Gotham and he did no running - that was just two weeks ago. Now he’s back, going from the one-turn mile to the one-turn mile and an eighth? I’m a big Mike Maker fan and if I had to guess, this guy shows more speed here, but I can’t back him on top off that last effort.

#2 John Hancock (3-1) - He’s going to scratch out of this spot and in the Louisiana Derby.

#3 American Promise (12-1) - I’m pretty confident this guy is going to the lead here. His best races have come on the front end…the scratch of John Hancock leaves this race devoid of a real pace setter…and it’s D. Wayne Lukas. With the scratch inside, he’s a player for a Top 3 spot and might be a price. I just don’t know if he’s good enough.

#4 Omaha Omaha (10-1) - Has a habit of finding trouble at the start of races. But to his credit, he’s been able to make a run late even after those tardy beginnings. Don’t think he gets a great setup and some decent turf pedigree here. Peyton Manning fans might be betting here, but I’ll pass.

#5 Studlydoright (15-1) - His one fast race came in a five-horse field. The only horse to run back from that race ran in a restricted race next time, then was dusted in open company in his subsequent start. Looks too slow.

#6 Getaway Car (9/5) - Horse to beat by a wide margin. They can be involved early or sit right off at what looks to be a meddling pace. Has battled the best horses out west - including the current Derby favorite Journalism. I don’t see another one that good in this group. Irad gets aboard and Bob Baffert rarely ships out to random (sorry, Colonial) spots to lose. You’re not getting a price here but he fits this Derby Prep very well.

#7 Rapture (5-1) - SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox runs this one here and scratches the other. Was beaten by a Todd Pletcher horse I like on debut, then came back to crush next time out - ran pretty fast there, too. Horses have come back to run okay out of that spot. You saw in the Gotham how these Cox horses can magically show more speed from one start to another. Player.

#8 Authentic Gallop (10-1) - Another in here with just one Beyer speed figure that stands out as competitive. Trainer Tom Amoss just 10% over the last five years with three-year-olds going a route of ground on the dirt in any stakes race. Showed some fight late in his last race, to his credit.

#9 Render Judgement (12-1) - Did no running in the Risen Star so they’ll try blinkers here. Beat American Promise and has been right there with a pretty good horse in Built. Trainer McPeek 3 for 33 putting blinkers on for the first time, three-year-olds on the dirt. Nice 4F drill for this race. Bred to run all day and interesting at a price underneath.

#10 Georgia Magic (30-1) - Expensive purchase ran good on debut but has not been able to back that up. A few okay works coming in and some trouble in his last start, but would be a shocker in this spot.

I’m confident that with John Hancock's scratch, American Promise will go here. I’m less confident in his ability to see out the nine furlongs, even around just one turn. Authentic Gallop and Calling Card might show speed too.

It should allow Getaway Car to sit just off the speed - or if Irad sees they’re going slow - take it to them from the bell. He’s faster than these and has faced better. Rapture could get the same trip and with improvement off his last race, should be right there.

I wish I had a goofier opinion, but Baffert found a good spot to get this one enough points to get into the Derby. I’ll use Render Judgement as my price play and in any vertical wagers.

Scratch Update - Maybe Calling Card coming out will benefit American Promise…look when I fade a D. Wayne speed horse I usually lose. IF it seems like speed is good today at Colonial, he could be an upgrade. We’ll see later today.

6-7-9-3

Good luck with your bets Saturday and safe trips for all. Let me know who you’re betting in the comments.

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The biggest race each year in America is undoubtedly the Kentucky Derby.

The most popular horse in America - Thorpedo Anna - will not be in the Derby starting gate this May. And while I’m not sure where exactly she’ll be running Derby weekend, you can find her this Saturday in Hot Springs, AR. The reigning Horse of the Year is set to launch her 4-year-old season in the 1 1/16-mile Azeri Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

While the NBA, NBA media, and basketball fans debate who the “Face of the NBA” is, there is no debating that Anna, “The Grizzly Bear,” is the equine face of horse racing in the United States.

There were fans in Saratoga on Travers Day just to see Anna take on the boys in the mid-summer Derby. A month later, she was the main draw on the Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion Day card at Parx. I saw dozens of people decked-out in some sort of Anna tee-shirt or outfit that morning in Pennsylvania, waiting for her to take the track later that afternoon.

Racing is a betting sport at its core. Without the bettors, there is no horse racing in North America. But you still need stars in the game. The Kentucky Derby is such an anticipated race each May, in part, because fans are hoping to see a star emerge from that year’s crop of three-year-olds.

Fierceness…Sierra Leone…White Abbario (maybe?): those are some of the bigger-named older horses that might have some recognition outside the bubble that is horse racing. Thorpedo Anna is a bigger name than all three of those combined.

Credit to trainer Ken McPeek for making sure fans knew when she was working out last summer at Saratoga: he’s done a good job in helping to make her a star,

She had a tremendous 2024 and was a deserving winner of the Horse of the Year title. But more important than that honor, she’s one of the few horses in training that by herself can get fans to the racetrack or to the closest screen to watch her do her thing.

As racing’s grip on the mainstream public continues to wane, stars like Anna are more important than ever for the sport.

🏇 This week, Barstool Sports’ Dave Portnoy announced a new name for the horses that run in his stable, Go Go Greys. The post announcing it over on X.com saw over 700K views.

While Anna might be the biggest equine star in racing, the most influential fan/bettor might be Portnoy. The founder of one of the biggest brands in America, Portnoy has long been a horseplayer. His videos on social media, going to big racing days (with his tag team partner Elio Imbornone) and betting on the races, are some of if not the most viewed in all of racing. When a grey horse wins, you can bet someone will post at Dave on X.com

As he’s made millions from Barstool and other ventures, Portnoy has invested in the sport, becoming an owner and supporting different racing charities and initiatives.

Tom Brady hanging out with owner Mike Repole and watching Mindframe dominate last week at Gulfstream was great to see - but it won’t push new fans into the game.

Portnoy promoting the sport will. I’m confident you’ll see plenty of that new “Go Go Greys” merch at a track near you come the spring meet at Keeneland. And for sure this summer at Saratoga. And many of those trackgoers will be there for the first time, following the Barstool/Portnoy lead.

In fact, I think you’ll see this as soon as next week, when his friend Elio is set to play in one of the two biggest handicapping tournaments of the year, the NHC in Las Vegas. If he makes a deep run into Sunday, the third and final day of the event, it will be the most talked-about NHC in recent memory.

And it would be good for the sport - just like Anna’s return to the track on Saturday.

🏇🏻 I’m taking this as a good sign for horseplayers. Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve received a pair of survey requests from DK Horse - the DraftKings horse betting platform.

The questions have been focused on what’s important to the horseplayer when it comes to betting on the DK Horse mobile app. These have been lengthy surveys that seem designed to help create a better app for the horseplayer.

I don’t think they’re doing this out of the goodness of their heart - they’re trying to make money! And if they can convert, say, a NYRA Bets user over to DK Horse - well maybe that person will find their way over to the DraftKings sportsbook app. Or the DraftKings Pick 6 games. Or in some states, the DraftKings casino.

But I don’t care why they’re doing it; I’m just glad they are. When you look around the industry, you can count on one hand the groups (ADWs included) that prioritize the player. More rebates, more free tools to wager and free past performances should all be initiatives we should be pushing for as horseplayers.

Hopefully these DK Horse player surveys are a sign that DraftKings is looking to give us a better place to bet - that would be a welcome change of pace from the rest of the industry.

What app do you use to bet on horses? Comment below and let me know.

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🏇 In my lifetime as a horseplayer, the best track announcer will always be Tom Durkin. No one will top him, ever. The best.

In that next group is the longtime voice of Del Mar, Trevor Denman.

Denman, 72, announced his retirement this week. Per the release, his retirement is effective immediately, meaning Denman will not call this summer at Del Mar, or any future Breeders’ Cups.

Jasom Beem, the very good announcer at Tampa, noted this week how race callers of the past had their own distinct voices and character. Denman certainly did, with his signature “they hit the wirrrree toogetherrrrr” my favorite.

He, like Durkin, told a story with his calls. And his voice will be greatly missed this summer at Del Mar.

A strong weekend for the Derby Prepping picks with two winners and a runner up. As such, we find ourselves in the black with an 11% ROI through 11 prep races.

11: 4-3-2
$66 in // $72.92 out
+6.92 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)

Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby
1 1/16th miles on the dirt
FS2 and FanDuel TV (5:34 PM)

Just one race this weekend and a smaller group, so let’s take a look at the entire field.

#1 Owen Almighty (5-1) - Battled on top of a fast pace last time in the prep for this, only to get run down late by a Brad Cox trainee. Is quick enough to be involved early and might actually get a target to run at with Broduer in here. Speed has been good at Tampa - that helps - as does getting Irad here. We might even get Irad at a price. A player for the top spot and a good price.

#2 Chancer McPatrick (8/5) - The G1 Hopeful winner makes his 2025 debut after a wide trip in the BC Juvenile. I’m putting him in the winner’s circle by saying this, but I want no part of him today. I’m sure there have been some comparisons to Sierra Leone, who returned as a three-year-old equipped with blinkers for trainer Chad Brown and won the Risen Star to launch a strong 2024 campaign. But Sierra Leone only had a 70-day break on that spot - this return off a 127-day break is rare for Chad under these conditions (0-2 last five years). Blazing Sevens whiffed on a similar return a few years ago. Not sure he wants two turns, is a closer on a track playing to speed and he’s coming off a big layoff…pass for me.

#3 Hill Road (4-1) - See above - this guy has the same layoff issues as Chancer. Ran on late in the BC Juvenile, but there’s some evidence that track was helpful to closers. Not sure how to evaluate him off that effort when he had two turf races before that. Dirt pedigree, sure, but a true wild card. The late-running style will not help him here. Handicapper Barry Spears thinks he’ll be closer to the pace today...we’ll see. That could/would help him here.

#4 Broedur (15-1) - Know him early as his speed should ensure an okay pace here. But he has not faced much in his career and is light on figures. Maybe hangs around for a piece if he’s able to set a sensible tempo and the speed is strong on the Tampa dirt on Saturday.

#5 Filoso (15-1) - Another closer on a track that has played to speed. Returns with blinkers for a trainer that I don’t bet often…well, at all. This guy did beat American Promise to break his maiden at Saratoga last August.

#6 Naughty Rascal (20-1) "- “Beat” Owen Almighty when that one got DQ’d back in January. Also beat the talented Rookie Card in that spot. Is probably up against it here, but was on that pace last time. Hard to make a very compelling case.

#7 Patch Adams (2-1) - There he is! SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox tries to get Patch Admas back on track after a trip in the Southwest. Battled in a tough duel on debut before coming back to crush in his second start. Add in that last start and this guy has really done nothing wrong in three starts. Fast enough early to get the lead or stalk the leaders outside. Numbers are right there and with a good trip, can take the feature at Beemer Bay.

Chad Brown has 18 entries on the Tampa card on Saturday: he’s going to win multiple races. I’m hoping - and betting - that this is not one of them. Both his horses will be coming off huge layoffs, closing on a track that favors speed and are going to get bet.

Owen Almighty and Patch Adams look primed for big efforts. I’ll be using both as As in the Late Pick 5, but for pick purposes, I’ll take the better price of Owen Almighty. I also like the experience he has over the track and the inside post. I’m guessing one of the two Chad runners comes flying for third. 20-1 Naughty Rascal would be my “price” use if playing deep tris or supers.

1-7-2-6

Back next week to handicap a new race on the Derby Trail, the Virginia Derby at Colonial. Word is a nice group will line up for the one-turn, nine-furlong race.

Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.

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It speaks to the lack of that “wow” performance (with Risen Star winner Magnitude off the Derby Trail with an injury) so far on the 2025 Derby Trail, that racing fans are still seeking out MSW and ALW winners as their potential Derby Horse.

Bob Baffert’s Cornucopian crushed last Sunday in a MSW race at Oaklawn on Rebel Day. He got a 101 Beyer, a 108 on Equibase and a 125 on TFUS, making his race as fast as any race run by a three-year-old this year. Baffert, of course, trained Triple Crown winner Justify - that one broke his maiden in February of 2018. This guy cost over $1 million at auction and is bred to be a good one: he’ll have to be to make the Derby off just a MSW race and say, the Arkansas Derby. But it is Baffert…

Thursday at Gulfstream, the Todd Pletcher trained Grande made it 2 for 2 in his career, getting an 87 Beyer going a mile and an eighth in an easy ALW win. He’s bred to run all day, owned by Mike Repole, and will probably get a shot to win one of the Grade 1 preps next month and see if he’s good enough. The Wood Memorial makes a lot of sense.

We’ll see how much actual clarity we get from the three preps today. One of them has just six runners - three of those trained by the same guy. Another is a one-turn mile that looks like a fun race, but not sure it’s built as a real Derby Prep.

A reminder - we’ll be doing this each Saturday through the Kentucky Derby. Please share with other fans of racing who are looking for Derby content leading up to the First Saturday in May.

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Went for a few prices that didn’t pan out last week. We’re sitting squarely in the red with the on-top picks through eight prep races.

8: 2-2-2
$48 in // $38.32 out
-$9.18 (based on a mythical $2 WPS bet on our top pick)

I don’t sit down looking to pick any favorites, but you have to play the hand you’re dealt in these races - not all of them are great money-making endeavours. The goal is to be ready to crush on Derby Day 2025.

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All three Derby Preps this weekend offer big points - 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers of each race. This is a reminder that those 50 points to the winner should be enough for the Derby starting gate: 35 points was enough in 2024 and 40 points got you in the 2023 Derby.

Grade 3 Gotham Stakes
1-turn mile
FS2, FanDuel TV (4:18 PM EST)

Fun race, even if it is a one-turn mile.

All eyes on Linda Rice and #5 Sand Devil. The Broman homebred is 3 for 3 coming into this spot and a deserving 9/5 on the morning line. Has run fast at one turn and as luck would have it, he gets a one-turn mile here with a chance for 50 points and a likely spot in the Derby starting gate.

Right to his inside is another undefeated horse, the 4 for 4 #4 Sacrosanct. This one has stayed in NY for SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox. Cox has done well recently with his NY Team in late winter/early spring (Slip Mahoney, Hit Show) and this guy appears to be training big for this one.

Those two are trying open company for the first time, whereas #3 Calling Card returns to NY - he broke his maiden here at this track/distance before trying the G3 Lecomte. I thought he had a bit of a trip at FG. Had to steady very early then found traffic into the first turn. He was very wide late and did not impact the finish. As not entered back in the Risen Star, then scratched out of the Derby Prep last Saturday at Turfway, to run here at the track he broke his maiden. Player at a price.

#9 Garamond is a little slow on paper, but I thought he looked okay in that debut at Tampa. Like another Chad Brown horse, Praetor, this one has been working up a storm at Payson Park for Juddmonte.

#7 Flood Zone comes out of a race where the two horses that have run back on dirt have seen their Beyers drop by 19 and 13 points, respectively. Seems like a fake number, even with SuperTrainer™️Cox taking over.

A half-brother to super horse Thorpedo Anna, #8 McAffee looks a little slow on paper, but sometimes that does not seem to matter with Dutrow horses

This is a home game for Linda Rice. She has the fastest horse. She excels at stretch-outs. I don’t love the price, but Sand Devil seems a very likely winner. Sacrosanct is a major player for Cox. Biggest wild card is Garamond, but I won’t be shocked when Calling Card runs will here for a sharp trainer.

5-3-4-9

Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
1 1/16-mile
FanDuel TV/CNBC (5:44 PM EST)

A quick note about today’s Derby Prep at Gulfstream. From DRF, “Gulfstream Park has lengthened the run-up in races run at 1 1/16 and 1 1/8 miles on dirt an extra 85 and 53 feet respectively which should somewhat lessen the disadvantage of drawing outside posts in those races including Saturday's G2 Fountain of Youth and the G1 Florida Derby”

This will make today’s race a little bit longer and should also negate the disadvantage of being in the outside posts. If you’ve been someone who has been upgrading the inside posts at this distance at GP (hand up, me) this is worth watching today and on Florida Derby Day.

#5 Solid Left ran in a race here on Thursday and is OUT of this one.

I suspect #3 Burnham Square will go off favored here. He’s been a different horse since he put the blinkers on two-back. He won on the lead, has won from off the pace and has won at Gulfstream. That Holy Bull win came over a nice one in Tappen Street - but the rest of that field looks pretty suspect. Note he was also glued to the rail for most of that race while Tappen Street was wide and took a bump on the backstretch. Fits, but so do some others.

#2 Sovereignty comes into this with a back story. He ran in a loaded MSW race at Saratoga last summer. He returned to BAQ and ran into a Chad Brown horse (Praetor) that ran a 90 Beyer that day - that one has been working up a storm for his return at Payson. Then as a maiden, he crushed the G3 Street Sense last fall, in a race that included the talented Sandman. Any step forward off his 2024 campaign and he’ll be very dangerous here. These types of layoffs returning in a graded stake have not been good for trainer Bill Mott. But on paper, a player if he’s cranked up.

#6 River Thames has run two fast races at Gulfstream and ends up here as a potential Derby horse for Todd Pletcher. The dam was quick but never even tried a route of ground. There’s talent, sure, but won’t he have to battle #7 Neoequos for the lead? That one is quick early and can’t imagine they’ll try and rate here.

#1 Gate to Wire could benefit from speed duel and should get a nice trip on the rail here. # 8 Keep It Easy goes for a trainer who is 0-8 over the last five years with this type of layoff, on the dirt, with 3 YO returning in a stakes race.

#3 Burnham Square looks logical here, but I’ll land on #2 Sovereignty as the top choice. They should go fast enough early to give him a pace to run at and at 3-1 in this field, that seems fair. I’m indeed worried he’s not 100% for this race and Mott is just trying to get him ready for the Florida Derby. If he opens at a big price - say 5 or 6-1, that would be a bad sign.

2-3-1

Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes
1 1/16-mile
FanDuel TV/CNBC (6:43 PM EST)

This is not much of a race to handicap, but you can make the case that the San Felipe is the most likely race this weekend to feature the 2025 Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite.

But let’s be honest - with Bob Baffert training three of the six entered here, and those three showing the most early speed on the always valuable Timeform US Pace Projector - this is a really annoying race to try and handicap.

Because while he’s the speed on paper, maybe Bob wants to rate #3 Barnes today. He’s 2 for 2 and atop multiple Derby Top 10 lists. Super talented, he tries two turns for the first time. Even money for a reason and comes in with big hype. Fast enough to wire this group for sure…

OR maybe Bob wants to send #3 Rodriguez, who let his stablemate Citizen Bull get the lead last time and that one was able to wire. The race before that, Rodriguez earned 100 Beyer going straight to the front - maybe that’s his best chance to win so he goes early.

Oh look, there’s a third Baffert in the field. #1 Mellencamp is also fast early and has the rail - oh but the owners of that one also own #3 Rodriguez.

Like I said, very annoying race.

The confirmed closer in the group is #2 Journalism. He ran well, beating a Baffert horse at this distance last time at Los Al. That race has proven okay looking back through charts. And visually, he looked like he was getting better late at Los Al and the numbers say he’s improved with added distance.

I can’t imagine I’ll be betting this race, given you're at the mercy of what the Baffert horses do early. If one of the 30-1 shots flashes some speed early and forces Barnes and Rodriguez to go faster than they want to, that could set up Journalism to make a big run in the lane. He has a win at two-turns already and he won’t be the favorite in here against the Baffert duo. Good enough for me.

2-3-4

A lot of Derby points up for grabs for Saturday. Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.

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The Derby Trail Giveth and the Derby Trial Giveth Taketh away.

Okay, that’s probably a little too much.

But like clockwork, we lose talented horses every year en route to the Kentucky Derby.

In the case of Magnitude, the Risen Star Stakes runaway winner last Saturday, we lost a horse that ran fast enough to be included in some pretty impressive company.

Over the last 15 years, only four horses had registered 108+ Beyer speed figures in a prep race and then made the Derby starting gate.

• California Chrome - Derby winner.

• Bodemeister - Derby runner-up.

• Materiality - 6th in the Derby with a slow start

• Fierceness - 16th in the Derby with a slow start from post 16

Magnitude’s freak at Fair Grounds added some juice to what has been a pretty drab Derby Trail heading into the final week of February. Now, as our friend Matt Bernier points out, he’s just another “What if…” on the Road to Derby 151.

Our chalk picks are officially in the red through six races on the Derby Trail.

6: 2-2-1
$36 in // $34.40 out
-$1.60

We’ll have some prices to play this weekend. They might still lose, but they won’t be 9/5.

John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park
1 1/16-mile on Tapeta
FanDuel TV (8:55 PM EST)

The 1 1/16-mile race on Turfway Park’s Tapeta track offers points on a 20-10-6-4-2 basis toward a berth in the Kentucky Derby.

A few issues with this race.

1. It’s not an elevated event, so the Derby points available don’t match up to other races as we get into March.

2. It’s on the synthetic Tapeta surface, so the results are not an indication of any guaranteed success on the dirt main track at Churchill Downs.

So you end up with pretty weird fields in this race. It’s not a race I’ve put much stock in when it comes to the Derby, even with Rich Strike coming out of it to win Derby 148 in 2022. But on paper, it’s a good betting race Saturday night.

2-1 ML favorite #9 First Report is not going to run here and as a result, it feels like a pretty open event.

#10 Coming in Hot will probably end up going off as the favorite. He’s been a different horse since going to the Tapeta surface and the Beyers reflect that. He’s never run this far and the trainer has not been great with horses going to sprint to route, so I’ll be in no rush to back him at a short price.

#7 Baby Max is the other that will come down off the 6-1 ML with the scratch of the favorite. He ran well last time going a mile here, but the comment Perfect Trip is dead on. Got a sweet trip and won easily - but he’s likely to face more adversity and more talented horses tonight in Kentucky.

I’m more interested in a couple of horses that did not run well in their most recent starts.

#4 Calling Card broke his maiden at Aqueduct by 17, before running into the talented Sandman in his next start. Trainer Mike Maker thought enough to run him in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes, where I thought he had a bit of a trip. Had to steady very early then found traffic into the first turn. He was very wide late and did not impact the finish. Rather than go on the Risen Star off a bullet work, Maker sends him here. We know how Magnitude ran back from that race…I’m not expecting Calling Card to run that well but I do like him at anywhere near his 10-1 ML price.

#12 Maximum Promise comes out of that same race and probably ran a tad better than Calling Card that day. He was back and against the rail for most of the race. He made his run late, looked like he was just spinning his wheels, and then showed some life through the finish line. Like Calling Card, he skips the Risen Star and ends up here for a trainer that has popped with some nice prices on synthetic.

#3 Studlydoright has faced some of the better of this crop on the East Coast and has yet to embarrass himself. His ‘off’ effort in the Hopeful can be chalked up to hitting the gate at the start. These are local Maryland connections that could have stayed home and been 8/5 in the Miracle Wood Stakes on Saturday afternoon. Instead, they ship here for a shot at Derby points. Interesting and usable at a price.

The other interesting price was #8 King of Ashes. He just broke his maiden but did so impressively, getting up for the win at today’s distance after a tough start. His two races on synthetic have been fine and I could see him getting a piece a a big price today.

These are tough races to handicap and there is a lot of guesswork, so I’ll land on a trainer who has won this race before and a horse that might offer some decent odds Saturday night.

4-12-3-7

Scratch Update: With our top choice scratched, we’ll just elevate the other selections and add longshot King of Ashes. We will be against the likely favorite Coming in Hot.

12-3-7-8

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The Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park
1 1/16-mile on dirt
FS2 and FanDuel TV (Sunday, 6:23 PM EST)

#10 Bullard would have been a player here at 5-1, but he spiked a fever and will scratch. What remains is still a competitive group of 13 running Sunday, thanks to Oaklawn moving the race as cold weather had impacted Hot Springs, AR over the last week.

This is an elevated event, so 50-25-15-10-5 Derby points to the top five finishers. The winner is almost assured a spot in the starting gate for Derby.

At least on paper and without the benefit of the updated scratches, there is a lot of speed in here. #11 Speed King has done nothing but go to the front in all three of his races - is today the day they try and rate? Maybe, since they have to figure #8 Innovator is blasting off, too. He ran big and in a fast-paced race in the Lecomte, only to get run down late. Can’t imagine D. Wayne’s instructions are anything but “go.” Note his two best races came on a wet track.

#9 Smoken Wicked comes out of sprint races where he made the lead so why would he not go? Like I said, a lot of speed.

ML favorite #3 Sandman would be the one to benefit if a speed duel develops. He has the best TFUS Late Pace rating and would be happy to see them battle on the front end. Fits in here for sure but at a short price—the horse to beat assuming a good trip.

I picked #5 Madaket Road last time and I don’t see any excuse for this flat third-place finish (even if Baffert did run 1-2-3 in there). Maybe the track was playing to speed that day in California? If you think so, you have the excuse and a reason to bet. Given Baffert and Irad, 9-2 seems high for what you’ll get at post-time.

#7 Dreaminblue has taken a step forward on TFUS speed figures in every race. He was really impressive last time but now he’s stretching out against a good field. Talented, but seems up against it in this spot.

#1 Coal Battle might sit a good trip here. He’s 4 for 4 on dirt and seems versatile enough to either be part of a tepid pace or sit off a fast one. Given the low-profile connections, you’re guaranteed a decent price.

You might even get a decent price on the much higher-profile connections involved in #2 Admiral Dennis. This guy is also light on speed figures, but that doesn’t matter with SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox.

So, *puts on a tinfoil hat* I think there is a case to be made that on Jan 20 (last time Admiral Dennis ran) there was a real bias for closers at Fair Grounds. Just looking through the charts for that day, multiple horses who showed speed but could not hold on - those horses have come back to run MUCH better next time out: many of them improving their speed figures.

Admiral Dennis was near the pace, grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch, and held off Vamos Carlitos. That one came back to bomb the next time out in the Risen Star but benefitted that day from being a closer. We’ve seen some other late-runners from that card also come back and run worse.

Admiral Dennis has run well in three of four starts and if you project forward off that last effort and account for the track that day, he can be right there. PLUS, it’s Brad Cox.

#13 Tiztastic dealt with some traffic last time and had kind of an awkward trip, and gets a major jockey upgrade here. Note the trainer lit up the tote board last week with Magnitude.

This is a fun race. I think Sandman is the most likely winner, especially given a quick pace. But I’m gonna land on my weird opinion that Admiral Dennis might be better than that last race indicated and pick him on top. I’ll be betting to win at 10-1 or better—hard to get a big price on the best dirt trainer in the country. Speed King would get an upgrade if other speed scratches out before Sunday.

2-3-11-1

The Rebel card is a good one Sunday. Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.

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I am not giving up.

I posted the video above a year ago after Risen Star Weekend - and then again yesterday on X.com - and I wrote about it in yesterday’s Friday Four-Pack newsletter.

Many of the responses were similar to the one above from Staggie - there are people who believe that it’s over for horse racing and we’re in the ‘slow drip til it all runs out’ stage of the game.

For now, I refuse to believe that.

For one, there’s too much money involved. Second, some very smart people around the game realize the danger of allowing CAW groups to have such a severe advantage over the average horse player.

I can tell you some of those people saw yesterday’s video and reached out - I’m hopeful their voices will be heard among industry leaders and we see real change for the better in 2025.

This a reminder that NYRA has the most player-friendly, CAW barriers in place - they’re blocked out of the win pool with 2 MTP, and they can’t play in the late Pick 5, Pick 6, or Cross Country Pick 5. You’ll see their action in exactas, for sure, but NYRA has made some effort to make it better for us.

Unfortunately, today at Fair Grounds, I expect to see some version of the video above a few times - they have become notorious for late odds drops in the win pools.

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After two weeks of Derby Trail picks, let me tell you, we are on fire with the top choice. 🔥🔥🔥

4: 1-2-1
A mythical $2 WPS bet on all four cost you $24. It returned $24.80. Folks, we are up .80¢

How am I giving you these picks for free???

Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds
FanDuel TV (730 PM EST)

Thanks to its placement on the calendar and mile and an eighth distance, The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes has become a major player on the Kentucky Derby Trail.

The 2024 winner, Sierra Leone, ran second in the Derby. As did the 2022 winner, Epicenter. The 2023 winner, Angel of Empire, ran third in that year’s Derby.

What also helps this race is the points awarded towards the Debry starting gate - 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers. If you win, you’re almost assured a spot in the Derby three months out.

The competitiveness of this race (at least on paper) took a major hit Thursday with the scratch of #2 Jonathan’s Way. Not sure where he’ll turn up next after spiking a fever, but as of this moment, he looks like a potential Derby player. Too bad.

Bad news for those of us looking to bet on that one, but good news for the connections of #4 East Avenue. After back-to-back dominant wins to open his career, East Avenue was sent off as the favorite in the BC Juvenile - and promptly lost all chance when he struggled out of that gate. It’s a forgivable result and he is a deserving favorite Saturday, thanks to a 95 Beyer earned last year that towers over this group. Trainer Brendan Walsh is having a good start to the year and does well with these layoffs. Per DRF Formulator— 100+ days, on the dirt, 3 YO—he’s 6 for 19 (32%) over the last five years. The one to beat, clearly.

If you look past Beyer and use TFUS Speed Figures, then #1 American Promise will be a player on your tickets. He's quick early, draws the rail, and comes out of a competitive race last time at Oaklawn where he battled a fast pace early. Like so many others trained by D. Wayne Lukas, he looks to me like a sprinter. But after losing the equivalent of a nice, all-inclusive vacation in St. Lucia betting against Seize the Grey in 2024, I’ll acknowledge he’s a player here. BUT…he’s going to be nowhere near his 12-1 ML with the scratch of Jonathan’s Way. He seems like the wiseguy horse based on some public picks I’ve seen, and I won’t be totally shocked when goes off as the second choice.

#9 Built was not scheduled to run here, but he shows up in the entries and brings pace to the race. His race two-back to wire the Gun Runner was pretty good. Then last time in the LeComte, on a sloppy track, he was all-out to finish second. I don’t think that was a great race, but if you think he’s the horse from the Gun Runner and he just hated the slop last time, maybe you want to use him.

At what should be a better price, I am much more interested in #3 Vassimo. In his debut back in December, he was three-wide sitting off a stablemate, until taking over at the top of the stretch. His main rival sat a perfect trip inside and joined the battle late. Vassimo held that one off in the lane, showing some teal grit in the process.

The horse he held off, Rapture (trained by SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox) would return to crush in his next start, earning a much improved 83 Beyer. Vassimo looks much more seasoned than a horse with just two career starts. Trainer Todd Pletcher sees fit to try this one in a big spot after just two races and with another bit of improvement, he’s a player here at a decent price.

I don’t know why I’m supposed to like #7 Septartian, other than he’s trained by Chad Brown: that Mucho Macho Man looks like a bad race.

I wanted to like #10 Render Judgement. He’s caught back-to-back slow paces and for a horse that wants to come from off the lead, that’s an issue. He also stumbled last time. But even accounting for all of that, he’s still a notch below a bunch in here. Bottom of tris and supers.

Even if he has to wait off of American Promise early, East Avenue should sit a great trip in here. He comes in off a strong work pattern and his main rival scratched. He’ll be 3/5 in here, but he’s the pick to win: my chalk parade continues. Let’s see if he can back up his two big races as a two-year-old.

Will use #3 Vassimo as my exacta horse. And will key 2nd and 3rd in the trifecta with other players.

4-3-10-1

I’ll be playing a Late Pick 3 into the Risen Star on Saturday night, as we get another weekend snow push in New England.

Race 12:
As 1,3,8 // Bs 4

Race 13
As 2

Race 14
As 3, 4 // Bs 1,10

EDIT - Updated for scratches

All As 138/2/34
B/A/A 4/2/34
A/A/B 138/2/1,10

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Grade 3 Sunland Park Derby at Sunland Park
(Fanduel TV, 6:17 EST Sunday)

The 1 1/16-mile Sunland Park Derby is set for Sunday at Sunland Park in New Mexico. This is NOT an elevated Derby Prep and will offer 20-10-6-4-2 Derby points to the top five finishers. It is the featured ninth race on the card, with a post time of 6:17 p.m. ET

PROGRAMMING NOTE - I have wanted to try posting one of these using the X.com articles feature and Sunday’s Sunland Derby provides a good time to do so.

Bob Baffert looks tough in there, but I’ll post a full breakdown X.com on Sunday. You can follow me on X.com right here.

Good luck if you’re playing today. Comments are open for all your feedback.

And safe trips for all.

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Just to get them out of the way, let’s start with a few negatives on this Saturday morning.

1. Only one prep race this week. Boo.

2. I lamented last year at this time that Tampa Bay Downs was the next ‘new’ track I needed to visit. I have friends who rave about the atmosphere, setup, weather, and customer service. Alas, I did not make it to Tampa…yet.

3. 

   Prominent and outspoken horse owner Mike Repole posted this Thursday. Unfortunately, he’s right. Every indication is that 1 S/T Racing—owners of Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park—is looking to sell its property to the highest bidders in an attempt to exit racing. It’s 1/9 that those new owners will also not want to be in the horse racing game.

A day after this post from Repole, news broke that Florida lawmakers are closer than ever to passing a bill that would allow tracks in that state to keep their casino licenses without running racing meets. That is BAD for racing.

The closure of those tracks in Florida - plus Santa Anita - would be crippling for the game, even with a beautiful new Belmont Park set to open in New York next fall.

I don’t think Repole is being hyperbolic when he says this year might be the most important ever for the future of racing.

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Those are the negatives. There are indeed some positives this weekend.

1. Looks like a nice day in Tampa with temps in the 80s and no rain.

2. There’s a nice card built around the feature.

3. We get track announcer Jason Beem calling the race(s). He’s a good guy, a terrific author, and does a great job on the call.

4. Mike Rennie continues to make great weekly videos calling out the idiocy in racing. You should watch it. And you need to be following him on X.com if you’re a racing fan.

The first weekend of our Derby Prep season saw our top choices all hit the board.

3-1-1-1
A mythical $2 WPS bet on all three cost you $18. It returned $18.20. Almost 1% profit. You’re welcome for the winners 😆😆😆

As for Saturday

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Sam F. Davis Stakes
Fox Sports "America's Day at the Races" including broadcast of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (3 p.m.-4 p.m. on FS2, 4 p.m.-6 p.m. on FS1 - 5:14 EST post)

A field of 10 lined up here for the 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points up for grabs by the top five finishers.

Morning line favorite #6 Owen Almighty looks like a legit player in here. He ran big on the front end last time in the prep for this race and crossed the wire first, before being DQ’d and placed behind fourth-place finisher Rookie Card. The stewards ruled Owen Almighty - with Irad Ortiz aboard - came over and interfered with that one. Rookie Card checked hard and Ortiz got a three-day suspension for the ride.

But he ran well despite the final placing. And his second-place finish to the talented Jonathan’s Way last fall was fine, especially given the slow pace. Gets blinkers, working well, very logical.

As is #2 Treaty of Rome. Trainer Chad Brown has been on fire at Tampa, with a 27-11-6-4 (41%) record at the meet heading into racing on Friday. This one was running late last time against Guns Loaded. The problem is Guns Loaded was terrible last week in the Holy Bull and it’s hard not to hold that against Treaty of Rome here. But it is Chad Brown with an improving horse. Guaranteed to be overbet in this spot.

I liked a second-time starter for SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox last weekend and here he is again with #3 John Handcock. This one comes out of a strong debut and gets Prat for this race. Note that Cox is 41% (7 for 17) going sprint to route with 3 YO on the dirt the last five years. Tappen Street was doing something similar last week in the Holy Bull and ran a good second. Real talent here, it appears.

#8 Naughty Rascal benefitted from the Owen Almighty DQ and he’s okay - he ran well to be second best in there. He chased home a speed horse that caught a good speed track two back. Looks more like a sprinter to me.

Here’s my problem with #7 Poster - the runner-up in the last race ran a better race than this one. The trainer is just 1 for 18 with 3 YO on the dirt coming off these types of layoffs. He screams that he’ll need one and a play against for me.

Two long shots to consider: #4 Dr Rubem M has faced some good ones out west before ending up here. Has the speed to be involved early and could hit the number at a price. The son of Vino Rosso should be fine with the distance.

#1 Camp Hale is still a maiden but has flashed real talent. The 110 TFUS speed figure he earned last time out is the third-highest in this field. He has run into some good horses in a three-race career and has upside at a price.

BUT…I think they’re all running for second. I think Owen Almighty looms large in this group. I hate taking a short price but he looks like the winner.

I’ll try and make money by keying Owen Almighty on top and needing one of Camp Hale or Dr. Rubem M to get into the tri with my other contenders.

6-2-1-4

Things pick up on the Derby Trail next week with the Risen Star at Fairgrounds and the Sunland Derby out west.

Good luck if you’re playing today and safe trips for all.

Some listening as you get ready for Super Bowl LIX.

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13 weeks.

More precisely, we have 91 days until Kentucky Derby 151.

It’s easy to get excited about the Derby and the Road that leads to it. As a racing fan, there’s a chance that one of these horses will turn out to be a superstar. And often, they first show signs of their brilliance in a Derby Prep race.

As a handicapper, we get a chance to watch the same group of horses square off against each other for a few months. The best ones will meet up for a final exam of sorts on the First Saturday in May. And if you put the work in, you can put yourself in a position to score out in one of the best betting races of the year.

There’s nothing better than that.

So yeah, I’m excited about the Derby Prep season kicking into high gear on Saturday.

As for horse racing, as a sport and betting game, I’ve never been more pessimistic about its future.

Just look at the recent headlines:

• 1/ST Racing - owners of Gulfstream Park - have basically threatened to close the track if the horsemen there don’t support legislation that would allow them to keep running their casino even if they don’t have live racing. Of course, they were granted that casino license because they have a race track.
  
  You had Belinda Stronach last week on NBC saying racing in urban areas is not feasible…which is silly. She wants to build on the land because it’s worth more as a real estate investment than as a horse track, but she wants to keep the pot of gold that is the casino license. There’s been some great pushback from the industry on this and worth a read here and here if you’re interested in the story.

• Next Thursday at Aqueduct, the Pick 6 will start in Race 2. That’s because they carded just seven races. I have been a racing fan since 2004 and never remember a seven-race card in NY. With 46 entries (before scratches), it’s still just an average field size of 6.5. Dirt racing in NY has seen a major downgrade over the last few years and this is just another example.

  

• The CAW groups are still at work, getting their bets in late and smashing the price on winners and exactas. Continuing to allow this helps the big computer groups and hurts the weekend and casual bettors. I made this video a year ago and this is STILL a major issue at most tracks.

• Racing’s handle was down 3% in 2024 - and it would be a lot more if not for those CAW groups.

There are some really smart people in racing - I’ve been lucky to meet them. Hopefully, we can talk to some of them here in this space in 2025. But much of the industry is stuck on doing things their way and not thinking about the sport’s health as a whole.

A reminder that our Derby Prepping posts will appear in the StackCapping section of MutStack. You can change your preferences on what emails you get by hitting the Unsubscribe link on this email. You won’t be unsubscribed, but you can make sure you’re getting what you want from your free subscription. You’ll see this and you can adjust from there -

If you’re a racing fan, I hope you’ll subscribe and send this to other racing fans as we get closer to Derby 151. I plan on new posts and handicapping every Saturday through the Triple Crown.

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Withers Stakes
FS2 "America's Day at the Races" including broadcast of the Withers Stakes (3:46 EST)

It’s an ungraded Withers to kick off our Derby Prep analysis. And at 1 1/8 miles in distance, Saturday’s $250,000 Withers S. at Aqueduct is the longest Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier contested thus far in 2025.

Seven horses are lined up for the 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualification points up for grabs by the top five finishers.

There is no pace signed on here in the Withers and that will help two of the shorter prices in here #4 Uncle Jim and #6 Captain Cook. Uncle Jim was part of a stable dispersal and sold for over $400k off that debut win. His next start got a decent Beyer for this group but I didn’t think he ran all that well. The winner there might be okay but nothing special. He’ll be involved early and it’s SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox, so I should probably respect him more than I do.

Captain Cook will be a shorter price and rightfully so. He dueled another horse into submission last time in the slop at Aqueduct and won easily as could be. Has early speed, talent, and Richard Dutrow training magic. The one to beat from my perspective.

Sounds like the connections of #5 Mo Quality wanted to horse closer last time when Coal Battle wired at Oaklawn. There have been two next-out winners from that race and a similar Beyer puts this one squarely in the mix. Expect more speed early.

#1 Global Steve looked good in his first two wins at Parx. Friend and Parx track announcer Jessica Paquette thought he looked like he was still trying to figure things out in those races - and yet he still won easily. Good post position and can sit just off the first group. Ignore Butch Reid shippers at your own risk.

#7 Omaha Omaha will be coming late, but I don’t see enough speed signed on for him to run down - but look for him to be there late. Maybe for a piece.

A few win contenders from where I sit, but this race sets up for the favorite on the front end. Rain is expected overnight in NY but mild temps in the forecast on Saturday, so we’ll see how the track plays as it drys out.

6-1-5-7

2025 Holy Bull Stakes (G3)
4:00 PM ET on CNBC and Peacock (5:13 PM)

Another field of seven and another race where 20-10-6-4-2 Kentucky Derby finishing points are set to be awarded to the first five finishers.

This is by far the most interesting of the three preps on Saturday.

#2 Ferocious is a deserving ML fave. And he’s also an easy play against. Trainer Gustavo Delgado thinks he has a Derby horse here, so having him cranked up for his best effort off the layoff seems unlikely. His trainer stats say something similar - 3 YO on dirt off of this type of layoff - just 3 for 27 (11%). He doesn't have to win to run well and set himself up for the Derby. I will point out that this guy never gets a good start and off the layoff, that could be an issue here too.

I don’t know if #3 Tappen Street is named after the street in Brookline, MA. I do know he ran a hell of a race of debut, bet down to 2-1 in a big field of 12. This one looked cooked into the far turn but kept running. And in the final furlong, kicked it into high gear and won impressively. The TFUS number came back strong (110) and SuperTrainer™️Cox shows real confidence entering him here off that debut. A win contender for sure.

#4 Guns Loaded could try and wire this group - and he might be able to. He’s got speed and is the son of the hottest sire of the last decade. With Irad Ortiz names and a decent speed figure, the price will be short. I won’t be shocked if he goes off 2-1 or so. Looks to be training well for this and is a win contender even at that short price.

#6 Burning Glory had gotten faster on Beyer and TFUS figures in every race. His last TFUS number tops this field. He’s bred to be fine at the distance. If you believe the TFUS number - you’re getting a win contender at a good price. Trainer Bill Mott 3 for 12 (25%) with 3 YO colts on the dirt in a Graded Stakes off a MSW win last time. Very, very interesting at that 8-1 price.

#7 Burnham Square’s trainer Ian Wilkes on his runner—“But, we’ll see. He’s got to make a step forward. He’s still got to improve some.” I never love comments like that. This gelding has run well but was just 30-1 on debut and 18-1 two-back in a MSW. Seems a cut below these but should note that he appears to be working well for this one and has faced okay company.

The visual of Tappen Street’s debut is enough for me to bet at 3-1 or so. But this is a nice group and a few could win. I’ll take a stand against the ML favorite off the layoff.

3-6-7-4

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3)
4:00 PM ET on CNBC and Peacock (5:30)

This race will be the middle of the three preps run on Saturday. But it’s much less interesting than the Holy Bull.

This is horse racing in 2025 - a Grade III Derby Prep with five entrants, three of which are trained by Bob Baffert and owned by the same group. Add this to the list of major issues for racing - California is a disaster.

It’s a great deal for Bob Baffert, though - this race still awards 20-10-6-4-2 Debry Points to the Top 5 finishers. Congrats, Bob!

The headline here is BC Juvy Champ #2 Citizen Bull makes his return here. He’s always shown talent and had worked well into his BC win last fall. He should fall into a good trip behind stablemate #3 Rodriguez, who looks quicker early. His 101 Beyer last time makes him a major player here and I expect he’ll try to go gate-to-wire.

He should have company in the form of Ward’s #4 Clock Tower. This horse looks quick early and has been working well for his return to dirt. I don’t know if he can win, but he could soften up any other frontrunners.

That should benefit the third Baffert, #1 Madaket Road. This one should be able to sit a nice trip off the speed and be in a great position at the top of the stretch. He’ll have to stretch out, but Baffert has great numbers on dirt with 3 YO going sprint to route.

When one trainer runs the top three choices in a five-horse field, weird stuff can happen. I do not expect to bet much on this race.

I do expect Baffert to run 1-2-3 here and will take the longest shot on top and hope Frankie Dettori can stalk the pace and get this one home at 5/2.

1-2-3

Good luck if you’re playing the races today. I’ll be posting quick reviews of the prep races in the comment sections of these posts. Hopefully, all this work pays off on the First Saturday in May!

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Reporting LIVE from Bensalem, PA...where the weather looks glorious and the track will be fast…it’s Pennsylvania Derby Day.

And the star of the show is a filly running in the Grade I Cotillion (Race 12).

Let’s start there with Thorpedo Anna, one of the most popular horses in training.

I have been lucky to meet some good friends through horse racing. Two of those booked their hotel rooms and planned to make the trip here the second the connections announced Anna was running here.

I’m sure they’re not alone.

Anna ran her eyeballs out in the Travers. Just an awesome performance coming up just short to Fierceness. Lost nothing in defeat. She’ll be every bit of 1/5 off the 4/5 ML, but I’m not trying to beat her here. She’s a standout on both class and speed. She can regress off that huge Travers effort and still win this.

Hats off to trainer Ken McPeek for showing her off in morning workouts this summer at Saratoga. There are just some horses that fans are drawn to, and Thorpedo Anna is one of them.

There are some similarities to the way John Servis understood 20 years ago that Smarty Jones was a horse that people loved and he embraced that. Ken McPeek appears to get it, too. She’ll have a massive fan club rooting her home Saturday at Parx.

I’ve been a fan since she made us look smart winning the Kentucky Oaks. Unless there’s some massive speed bias at Parx, she’s a stone single in all my bets. I’ll be one of the ones hoping she puts on a show.

If there’s an upset, maybe Mystic Lake wires them. Or maybe Gun Song gets a perfect trip off that one. Too many people like Sidamra, she’s going to be 5/2 in here.

But honestly? I’m rooting for Anna to crush here and hope the crowd goes crazy as she powers home in Bensalem.

6-8-7 if you care about my Top 3. The focus is Anna.

In the Grade I Pennsylvania Derby (Race 13), I’m doing something I hate doing and picking a horse that so many other handicappers are tabbing on top that he can’t possibly win.

We’ll be lucky to get 3-1 on Unmatched Wisdom Saturday based on all the people picking him and a bad morning line, but I’m still taking him.

He had a very awkward start in the Travers and from there was never really in the race. He had three good races coming and was training well.

I’m going to draw a line through that Travers. His TFUS and Beyer figures put him right there and he gets Flavien Prat back aboard in this spot. There is no value in this pick at 3-1 or so, but given the field he’s facing here, I’ll hope that last race was a small misstep and he’ll be ready here. In Chad I Trust.

Two handicappers I respect - Nick Tamarro and Paul Halloran - both are of the mindset that given the pace here, Dragoon Guard can’t win. If he tries to run with Seize the Grey or even Just Step On It (who I believe will be gunning for the lead too) then yeah, he can’t win. He’ll get buried in the speed duel.

But I think this guy is talented enough to sit off of those and win the race. He’s been lucky to make some easy leads, I get it, but I believe there is real talent with this horse. Appears to be working well coming in. And he might just be good enough to blast off himself and wire here. Short price but big talent. He’s an ‘A’ for me in the late plays.

Stronghold will be a backup. Ran okay in the Derby given the post and pace. Could not get past Dragoon Guard last time but first off the layoff. Reports from my Parx people say this horse will be okay with the deeper surface. Using…and will be 3-1 or better.

Will also use Uncle Heavy as my price horse. He has a bad post: from Ed DeRosa, horses in post-position 10 and out, going nine furlongs at Parx, are 1 for 30 dating back to 2016. He’s a closer and will need a pace to run at here and might get it. Has great local connections and two wins here. If playing trifectas, please use.

One more - Protective. Maybe he’s figured it out and his race two back was actually pretty good. The best late closer he gets Irad and…I don’t know…I think he’ll be flying late at 10-1. Remember Todd Pletcher ran second in this race last year with closer Dreamlike at 7.80-1.

I am a FULL fade on Seize the Grey. Loved him in the Pat Day Mile. Hated him in the Preakness and it killed me. He’s better shorter and will be an underlay here. Will have huge crowd here on track in the form of MyRacehorse Stable.

8-7 // 11-10// 5

I’m lucky to be here on track at Parx and will be on the in-house TV feed all day. I get to work with my friend and track announcer Jessica Paquette. Let’s hope we find a winner or three.

You can watch it on your favorite ADW. If you’re on track, come say hello.

As for the rest of the PA Derby Day…great job by Parx Racing Manager David Osojna for a great betting card.

Ideas for all of today’s races are below. Posting these BEFORE scratches and will try to update but no promises.

Race 1
Especially on a day like today, watch the board for clues in these two-year-old races. Without the benefit of that here on Friday afternoon, I’ll say I’m interested in Sherman Fury in the opener. Blinkers on after just sort of running around there against the talented Chancer McPatrick on debut. Butch Reid looks poised to have a big day and Analog Jones fits here, although has started slow in back to back starts. Maybe My Military Hero just didn’t like the blinkers last time? They come off and he can be right there.

Take note of money on Lasky Drive (a half to the talented Carmelina) and Happy Delusional (nice works at Parx).

2-11-6 // 9,14 …also if the 18 Friday Surprise gets in, I’d be interested.

Race 2
Again, watch the board. Maximus Angelicus set a wicked pace last time out at this level, only to fade late and lose to a next-out winner (60 Beyer at Laurel). Don’t focus on the beaten lengths here - was flying early. Can win this with a better trip. Bee Bluff the horse to beat and could wire here, but not thrilled with her at 2-1. Mischievous Twins is interesting for John Servis. This one a half to the talented Tuskegee Airman. Last two years, Servis 5-29 (17%) with two-year-olds debuting at Parx. Lures Johnny V for a popular ownership group. Nice gate work two back. Interesting. Cantafio a half to a pretty good horse (Salto Des Tigre) and steps up in class off an interesting trip.

3-6-1-10

Race 3
First of two turf races scheduled and there’s not much turf pedigree to experience to lean on. Fierce and Strong looks logical and has never been out of the exacta on turf. Crisper has four wins on the green. And Drunker Sailor has experience on it, too. But really, I’m guessing here. They have had issues with the turf and I’ll be curious how it plays.

More guessing and less handicapping here. Sorry.

11-7-4

Race 4
Not looking to eat too much chalk today, but 2-1 ML Beyondexpectations looks legit here. Great call by friend/track announcer Jessica Paquette in this one’s debut race. The Boy’s Warrior scratched out of a stake at PID to run here and is probably okay. Reelin N Dealing a half to Our Uptown Girl and the dam’s two two-year-olds have both won early.

Watch the board.

5-7-2

Race 5
Its likely Anabam is too quick for these early and is a legit favorite at 6/5. Loveumom gets blinkers for mid-circuit SuperTrainer™️ Jamie Ness - a strong move for that barn. Watch for money on Carousel Queen - Scott Lake is 14% with two-year-olds at Parx and 2 for his last 10 with fillies. Might be okay.

4-5-8

Race 6
Morning Matcha is 2-5 on the ML…and I get it. Comes in with four recent races faster than most of this group. Seven wins at Parx. Never out of the money at the distance. One of the more likely winners on the card. Feels like a Butch Reid exacta with Confirmed Star also a player here. If there is an upset, maybe Nature’s Candy can wire this group going a mile.

6-5-3

Race 7
Based on class, Striker Has Dial is a standout here. Look at the horses this one had faced - just much better than any in here. There’s a risk she gets hooked by Big Dreamer but if able to use that one as a target, could sit an awesome trip. WooHoo Jackie Blue first off the claim for Ness and get has back races on dirt that fit. Benefits from a hot pace here.

11-6-10

Race 8
When Next won this race last year, DRF’s Dan Illman asked out loud in the Parx media area, “Why not try the BC Classic?” I agreed. The connections did not. He’s the best marathon horse on the country and hoping he puts on his usual show Saturday. There are no such things as guarantees, but Next will be 1/9 and I’m not trying to beat him.

9-6-1

Race 9
This was one of if not the toughest race on the card for me. I’ll tepidly pick Film Star here. If they move up front, Irad can sit just off and find a good trip here at 4-1 or so. Note that Linda Rice has already shipped in and won here. Movisor went way too fast early last time and can be a player here with a better trip early. Jamie Ness and Repo Rocks appear dangerous in this spot. Tough race and I’m glad it’s not in the Late Pick 5.

8-1-4

Race 10
Again, there have been turf issues here at Parx and I’m not sure how the green will play on Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace here with Traders Luck, Souper Quest and Jean Valjean likely to vie for the lead. Of those three, I’d like Jean Valjean the most.

But 5-1 on Alogon is too good to pass up on top. Can sit off the speed and just won here on this turf course. And ran pretty fast. Boat’s a Rockin comes out of that same race and has seven wins at the distance. He might be able to sit a good trip with Paco aboard and just off that pace.

These two turf races are not my strongest opinions of the day, for sure.

6-4-10

Race 11
The Grade 2 Gallant Bob is and important part of the mandatory payout Big Philly 5, the late .50 Pick Four and the Cross Country Pick 5.

Bentornado is the ML favorite and he makes sense coming off a fast race at Charles Town. But today he has to deal with the super-quick Buccherino. This one ran huge last time in the local prep for this spot. I assume he’ll be gunning for the lead here and go wire this field.

But if those two battle up front, the horse I want to bet is Maximus Meridius. He ran in that same local prep won by Buccherino and had to chase that one the whole way around. He’s run in some tougher races than this and maybe he gets to sit off the speed and get a better trip then last time. His race back on May 5 can win this. Will note trainer Butch Reid 0-5 going blinkers off on the dirt the last five years. Four of those five did hit the board.

Will focus on 5-3 here…I’m realizing I like a lot of Butch Reid horses today.

5-3-1-7

Race 12 - see above Cotillion
Race 13 - see above PA Derby

Race 14
The speed of the speed is always dangerous and for that reason, I like Super Chow in the finale. Stumbled and rushed up last time, this horse can blast off with a good start. I think this horse is loose and can wire at 3-1. I have always liked Twisted Ride and after trying deeper waters, get back to his level today. Top Gunner is first off the claim for Brad Cox. Cox is a ridiculous 6 for 12 (50%) the last year first off the claim on the dirt. Nine of those twelve hit the board. Oh, and Prat stays to ride the finale. I will not miss the Pick 5 because I tossed this one.

Would use My Buddy B and Ninetyprcentmaddie as backups late.

3-6-11 // 9,10

Should be a fun card. Will try and be active on X.com during the day.

Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.

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Just three days to get all the money at Saratoga.

After some wet weather later today, Sunday and Monday look great and the cards are brimming with solid betting opportunities.

Was alive to three horses in the Pick 4 that ended the Travers last Saturday. All were paying pretty well and would have made the day a winning one. I wrote in my handicapping for that race that if Fierceness won the Travers, I’d lose.

Well, Fierceness won.

And I lost.

He ran one of his good races. And given their prices, he was pretty good value. Thorpedo Anna ran huge against the boys. Sierra Leone keeps disappointing and was wildly overbet.

Can’t wait to see Anna live at Parx in a few weeks for the Cotillion.

The highlight of the day - both as an experience and for my account balance - was handing out Arro Smash with the Barstool guys.

Had three of the first four winners on top Travers Day.

After that…blah.

Was planning on attacking the last Pick 5 today, but the forecast calls for rain and I’ll have to decide later today.

Picks for all 13 races below.

Raced noted with ⭐⭐⭐ are horses I’m excited to bet today.

Race 1
Watch the board for money on the firsters. Guessing 6-5 ML Printer’s Alley (shoutout Nashville) will be live here. Friday Surprise makes sense off the first two starts. Executive Order looks quick based on the works. Nothing clever but again, watch where the money gets bet.

4-3-7

Race 2
Statesman has massive turf breeding and ran okay on dirt first time out. Other turf pedigrees in here too - Royal Presence, Battle Drum, Gotta Guy, and certainly Academy if that one gets in here (also entered at Kentucky Downs). Will focus my money on Statesman but again - watch the board.

6-4-10

Race 3
There looks like very little pace in here and for that reason happy to focus on Twisted Filigree and Heymackit’sjack. Both could wire this turf sprint - the race two back for Twisted Filigree probably wins this. Your Man Alex fits here. Again, nothing clever.

3-8-6

Race 4
Over the last three years, Chad Brown has racked up a gaudy 43% (9 for 21) in MDC < $40k at Saratoga. That’s enough for me in a bad race - both Chads in play with Torpedo Run and Confabulation. Forced Error gets back to the right surface. Rudy’s horse (Shakin the Belle) will be massively overbet and happy to toss in the Early Pick 5.

2-7-9

Race 5
Federal Judge vs. Accretive is a fun way to end the early Pick 5. I prefer Federal Judge - who ran big off the layoff and had every right to tire late. Cuts back half a furlong and look loose on TimeForm Pace numbers. Accretive in for a tag is obvious. Top Gunner could get a good trip off his stable mate and with slight improvement could be a factor.

5-6

Race 6 ⭐⭐⭐
It has been the summer of Dylan Davis - as predicted by Dave Portnoy when the Saratoga meet began. I don’t think we’ll get 8-1 because of all the Dylan buzz, but why can’t Moonlight Promises blast off in here? Sire was a speedball. Turf on the dam side. Has been entered twice on the turf with both races getting rained off. Mark Casse has had a big meet. Bourbon Milk Punch has plenty of turf pedigree and goes for a trainer that gets them to run early. Brindi a player after a good debut. If Yesterday gets in off the AE list, do not ignore.

3-7-6

Race 7
Really tough race. Now third off the layoff, Cara’s Time okay strong here. In great form and can be on or near the lead. How about 10-1 Best Impression as a price player? Trouble on debut, then a winner. Now training well coming in and could sit just off the pace.

5-3-4-9

Race 8 ⭐⭐⭐
WATCH THE BOARD! Tap Into This is a half to the speedy Extra Anjejo. Typical Asmussen good work than maintenance jog into this. The trainer is 7-2-2-0 with maiden two-year-olds at the meet. Our Favorite Son working well with rocketship Too Sharp. Phillip Bauer and Rigby Racing have been 🔥🔥🔥 this summer. Makes Sense working well for the debut, as is Capricious Outcome (looks turf meant). I Got Game a player if he gets in.

3-9-4-7

Race 9
I feel like Mike Maker controls this race with two pace horses outside in Samburu and Laurel Valley. Either one could wire this field and will use both here for sure. Barrage fits this race, as does Ramblin’ Wreck. Tough race to start the Late Pick 5 and I’ll have to go deep to try and get through.

9-6-10-3

Race 10
The race goes through Two Sharp and a repeat of her last race makes her uber tough. Will be the one I’m leaning on if I play the Pick 5. Tricky Temper is a player. After being scratched early in the meet, we finally get to see Brightwork back on the track. DRF Clockers like some of the recent works. Might be an okay price off the layoff.

7-9-3

Race 11 ⭐⭐⭐
A very fun edition of the Spinaway. I thought Quietside ran one of the best two-year-old races of the summer but the post does her no favors. The Queens M G has beat me twice this summer but have to use as a backup in the Pick 5. Strong State ran very well last time, gets Irad and will be a price. Salted is a maiden but if you think there is a lot of pace in here, she might be the best close.

I wanted to bet #7 Pondering. Go watch her MSW win at Ellis - that was a very professional debut. In hand late, the jockey comes to Saratoga for this race. The eye says this horse is really good and at 6-1, I’m firing.

Tough race.

7-11-6-9

Race 12 ^⭐⭐⭐
I guess War Like Goddess deserves to be favored. Legit A. Loves Saratoga. Has all the class. BUT…it feels like a day to finally be with Charlie Appleby and Eternal Hope. Should be able to sit off of the Chad Brown rabbit Idea Generation. We might finally get an okay price on an Appleby runner. Parnac has a few races that put her in the mix and you get Dylan Davis at a price.

4-1-3

Race 13
Don’t have a lot of confidence this race will be on the turf with rain in the forecast. If we do run on the green, why can’t Devilsgotcause wire this group? Is fast early an is 110 TFUS fig is the best in the group. Luis Saez should just blast off and try to wire. Heathguard goes for a trainer named Roy Lerman, who used to get one or two bombs home at Saraotga but is now 0-33 at Saratoga the last five years. BUT…very wide in his last two, he might be the one running at the end at a huge price. Linda Rice deadly off the claim and Kick a Buck makes sense. Jhirch a player for Motion.

7-2-9-6 on the turf.

On the dirt
I still might play Devilsgotcause. Strapped and Khala on the MTO list have to be used, too, if we’re off the turf

7-15-16

That’s your 13-race card. Tail or toss!

Let’s hope NYRA speeds up the post times and we get all these races in before the rain.

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.

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If I ignore the terrible betting and loss of bankroll, Travers Eve was a great day at Saratoga.

Nice table in the backyard with friends. Seemed like a quiet day on track. Easy to move around.

My son (one of them) is finally picking some winners. The weather was glorious. Dinner at Mexican Connection.

All that being said…the betting was bad.

Thankfully, it’s easy to turn the page when you have this massive Travers card in front of you.

As usual, full-card picks are below. Travers!

Race 13 - The Travers ⭐⭐⭐

We have a full-field breakdown and some expert selections in The Friday Four-Pack.

As for the race.

I feel foolish doing it, but I have Sierra Leone winning the race.

I think Thorpedo Anna, Dornoch, and Fierceness all press the pace. As the week has gone on, I’ve convinced myself Batten Down will also be a pace player. It’s going to be fast early.

Flavien Prat will be able save ground behind all that speed and get a perfect set up to mow them down late.

I get it, he’s had his chances. But this one today..I mean it looks too good. Which is why everyone seems to be on this guy. I don’t think we’re getting 7-2.

He’s my pick and an A, for sure.

The filly Thorpedo Anna is the big story here: they’ll be handing out Thorpedo Anna posters at the track on Saturday. She has a huge fan base and it’s a great story if she wins. Training huge coming in and can save a lot of ground inside. I thought she might be the favorite but there are very few public handicappers actually picking. But I think she can win and have her an ‘A.’

Other win contenders - Dornoch can win this. He’s going to battle you in the lane and when he has a lead he’s tough to pass.

My win contenders are those three - Sierra Leone, Dornoch and Anna.

Underneath, I have to use the other Chad in Unmatched Wisdom. Training big and can sit just off the pace. Has never run a bad race. The push from Mike Vesce here on Friday is also a factor. And he’ll be a square price, although the Chad Brown exacta will be overbet. I will have in exactas and tris with my Top 3.

I will not be using Fierceness. He wins, I lose. I wonder if he’d even be in here if Mindframe was healthy.

You can’t bet them all.

2-7-1-3

I have been hyping this race for a while. It’s the best Travers I can remember I’m hopeful it’ll live up to the top billing it has today at Saratoga.

But there are 13 other races we get to wager on too!

Race 1
Won’t spend a lot of time or money trying to beat Geopolitics in the opener. Has run faster than these and adds blinkers for Mott. Empire Magic part of a fast pace last time and is the most likely upsetter.

8-6-1

Race 2
If Donegal Momentum takes to the green he can win this at a fair price. Turf in his family and DRF Clocker Report is okay with his turf work. Main Beach was coming last time and can get there with a clean trip.

9-5-1

Race 3
He was wide on Belmont weekend up here but running late. Same story two back at BAQ. Then again late July in Saratoga. Today he stretches out to a longer distance and gets the red-hot Dylan Davis. Give me American Grant on top at a price. Addicted to You was close to a pace that fell apart last time and might be okay.

7-4-3

Race 4 ⭐⭐⭐
I’m going to draw a line thru his last race after after he hit the gate early and bet Arro Smash. Pace advantage here and has won at this trip (last year’s Travers Day finale).

2-6-4

Race 5
Mischievous Angel has never run poorly when sprinting on the green and gets a chance to do that again here. Runninngwscissors will be flying late and could win with the right trip. Which is the norm for these turf sprints.

7-6-1A/1

Race 6
Watch the board for who gets bet here, but why not Insubordination? Trained well on turf before getting a start in an off-the-turf race. Trainer George Weaver 16% with 2-year-olds first-time turf at Saratoga. Had two winners like that last summer and is due to get a few wins.

1-4-10

Race 7
Again, watch the board here. Looks to be some real talent in here and Rookie Card has been working with some seasoned talent - he held his own against Dornoch two works back. Tip Top Thomas looks set for a strong debut and has win early in his pedigree.

2-3-8

Race 8
The most likely winner here is Rhetorical after a strong debut here in July. But don’t ignore Miracle Mike in here. A slowish start in his last and was running late. An exotics use for sure. Final Denile is also in play for a piece.

5-7-1

Race 9 - The Grade I Sword Dancer
Charlie Appleby appears to have this race locked with Measured Time and Silver Knott. I’ll use both as As in the mandatory payout Pick 5 and move on.

2-4-3

Rcace 10- The Grade I Ballerina
It seems like everyone is picking her and I guess I’ll join in because Scylla fits here. Can’t get over Bill Mott shipping the horse to California and then coming back to run here and cutting back. With any pace set up, she can win. Sure, Vahva will be a tough customer today and a horse to use for sure in multis.

5-3-1

Race 11 - The Grade I Forego
I hate picking the favorite in a competitive race like this, but Mullikin looks like the right one here. Fast enough to be involved early and has never been out of the exacta at the tricky 7F distance. Baby Yoda loves Saratoga (4 wins here) and has a right to bounce back here. Gun Pilot, Cagliostro and Twisted Ride all can be used.

6-4-1

Race 12 - The Grade I Allen Jerkens ⭐⭐⭐
I mean…the race formerly known as the King’s Bishop is just loaded. What a race. So many options here and you can make a case for many.

I’ll land on one of the cutback options in Timberlake. Part of that fast Haskell pace and now gets to go shorter. Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox is a gaudy 37% (7 for 19) cutting back at Saratoga over the last five years. But I’d have to go much deeper in mutils.

Domestic Product looked good cutting back. Book’ Em Danno and Little Ni both look good out of the Jersey Shore. Speak Easy has just two races but some buzz about him dating back to the spring. Baffert is always live and has Prince of Monaco in here. I even think Reynolds Channel can hit the board at a price.

My “pick” is Timberlake but this is a deep race where you should not be afraid to bet your opinion. Awesome race.

6-3-2-9

Race 13- The Travers

See above

Race 14
The get-out special. And I have no clever ideas.

Praire Dunes ran too bad to believe last time and drops for a tag. Has faced some good ones.

Treaty Obligation seems obvious dropping for Chad. The runner-up in that last race came back to run a 96 Beyer.

Linda Rice has huge numbers dropping and gets a chance with Deputy Mischief.

12-8-10

One of the best racing cards of the year.

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.

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We are now just a week away from the 155th Travers Stakes. Given the field expected, there is plenty of anticipation. And there should be.

Thorpedo Anna would have been a heavy favorite in today’s Alabama. Credit to trainer Ken McPeek for opting for next week’s feature, where she has a chance to be the first filly since 1915 to win the Mid-Summer Derby.

You also have the Belmont and Haskell winner in Dornoch, the Jim Dandy winner and Derby 24’ favorite Fierceness, plus everyone’s favorite late-runner Sierra Leone. Only eight lined up but it’s a solid group.

Anna v. The Boys is good for racing and makes it a much better betting race - both this week’s Alabama and next week’s Travers.

I’m guessing Fierceness will be the favorite, somewhere around 5-2. But I think Anna will end up going off as close to if not the second choice at 3-1. I don’t think she’s the second most likely winner, but it feels like she’ll be overbet in this spot.

We picked her in the Oaks when she was 9/2. It will be hard to take less than that vs. better on Saturday. Might be a race to take a stand against if we get short odds.

They’ll draw the race on Sunday afternoon but there is plenty of buzz already with Anna in the field.

Del Mar debuted a new bet this week, called the “3X3.”

It’s a $1 minimum bet where you have to nail the trifecta in the last three races of the day.

Unless there is someone who sweeps all three, a jackpot carries over. That’s most of the pool. There are consolations for picking some winners in order, but they are minimal. Oh, and there’s a 22% takeout.

It’s a really, really dumb bet.

Thankfully, the players in CA have recognized this and have basically ignored it. On Friday, there was only $237 bet into the 3X3 pool.

This “bet” is basically playing a lottery ticket with astronomical odds against actually winning - only with a 22% takeout.

Racing’s wagering menu is stale and needs an update. Racing in general needs a lot of help. More jackpot-style bets with a 22% takeout are not the answer.

Just like last week, ⭐⭐⭐ are marked as top plays/ideas. For whatever that’s worth.

MutStack Play of the Day
Race 9 - The Lake Placid
⭐⭐⭐

The Lake Placid came up as a great betting race. I don’t have a big knock against 2-1 ML fave She Feels Pretty. Pace scenario should not matter and I could see longshot Ori leading them into the far turn. I won’t be shocked when She Feels Pretty powers past that one, wins, and pays $6.

BUT… I want a price in a race where a lot of these look similar. to me. And maybe I’m getting caught up in the replays, but Proctor Street looked really good in his two wins. Both of those came from back in the pack and she showed real professionalism in both. Maybe a little slow on speed figures but should get a nice trip and the price will be there.

Saez might get a sweet trip on De Regreso and I’ll use in the vertical wagers.

9-7-4

Race 1
I won’t be shocked when Moment’s Notice wins but the price will be short. Perfect Force ran in a MSW at CD where the runners who have come back have improved their Beyer figures. It is a better race than it looks like on paper. Nice work for this. I wanted to experienced runners in the opener.

5-1A-7

Race 2
The field is loaded with turf pedigrees and I’ll land on the sibling to Spanish Mission, Asbury Park. Policy Change bred to run on the grass and could be a factor. Watch the board - see what horses are being bet by looking at the double probables.

1-3-6

Race 3 ⭐⭐⭐
Bendetta got herself and a wild duel last time and understandably faded late - since then has trained okay for this and gets Prat today. Any improvement off the 2023 figures and this one can be in the mix at a price.

1-4-5

Race 4
Trainer Michael Trombetta can be trusted when he gets his horses turf sprinting (18% at Saratoga last five years) and Turf Rocket gets his chance today and if his closing kick transfers to 5.5F she can win this at a fair price.

7-3-5

Race 5
When Linda Rice claims horses from Kentucky over the last year, they usually come running at Saratoga. While Macaw is the most likely winner, Salacious drops to the MDC basement and has flashed speed before. The more inside the better out of the Wilson Chute.

4-7-3

Race 6
Call Me Harry has been facing much tougher company and has run some of the best numbers in here. Logical for sure. I’ll take a small swing with Laural Valley who is 2 for 2 at Saratoga and is in strong form. Broke his maiden almost a year ago at Saratoga going this same trip. Maxwell Esquire is interesting at a price second off the layoff and getting Prat.

3-4-9

Race 7
The progression of Chad Brown’s Catch a Wave sticks out like a sore thumb. Freedom Trail dangerous off the layoff. Mondego could lead them a long way if the pace does not develop.

5-4-8

Race 8
Rocketeer puts the blinkers back on and has already faced older. This is a big move for trainer Brad Cox - Blinkers ON, Dirt, Routes = 30% over the last five years. He’s 2 for 4 with the move in NY. Terrible movie, but I’m picking the horse.

6-10-9

Race 9
SEE ABOVE

Race 10 - The Alabama
I mean, I guess Candied could win, but it will be at an ultra-short price. My gut pick here is Neon Icon. You’re trying to figure out who wants the mile and a quarter and this one already has a win at the distance. Start in the Indy Oaks was not ideal. That’s the gut pick.

My brain says to give Intricate one more shot. Can save ground all the way around and make her run late. Beat Thorpedo Anna last year and is now third off the layoff. Hopefully, Miss Justify sets a pace to run into. That one might get brave on the front end.

A very tough race...if you’re not willing to concede it to Candied.

1-7-9

Race 11
After a not-so-great trip last time going longer, will try Who’s the King cutting back. Will continue to focus on horses in posts 1-6 in the Mile Chute and this one should be able to sit off the speed and stay close. Saffie and Gaffalione have been a potent combo (21% last five years in Saratoga).

4-3-5

Race 12
After trying stakes company and break, Naughty Destiny returns with Lasix and the hottest jockey in Saratoga. Clement Barn is due to get going here and he’s good with turf sprinters.

6-3-8

Nice card. Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.

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As someone who has touted the advantage of speed going a route of ground on the main track at Saratoga, I probably should have been on Authur’s Ride in the Whitney.

But I believed from that inside position, National Treasure would have to go and there was no way the big grey would outfoot the Baffert early. Instead, Prat was nonchalant with National Treasure - maybe he thought he was too good for this field and could inhale them late. If so, it was a bad decision.

Hope you had the winner - like our friend Joe in the comments here.

Below you’ll find my picks and ideas for the full card Saturday at Saratoga, another edition of Tournament Tales, and a few other racing opinions.

If you are playing Saratoga today, note the revised schedule of racing.

Note that the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 will be in a separate wagering tab on whatever ADW you play on. On NYRA Bets the tab is called SARATOGA ADDED LATE P4 AND P5.

Good luck if you’re playing and thanks for reading.

Tournament Tales

After tuning up in multiple HorseTourney.com events, I jumped into last Saturday’s $300 NYRA Whitney Day Saratoga Tournament.

These are real money, live tournaments. You have a $200 bankroll and $100 goes into the pot, all paid out to the players in winnings. You have to bet a minimum of $40 on five different races ($200) and then you can bet what you want beyond that.

Win, place, show, exacta, trifecta, daily double and quinella betting only.

I worked with the NYRA Bets team last summer, play on their platform, and believe the folks who work on the tournament side are trying hard to create good tournaments for players. I’m a fan.

I crapped out last summer attempting a similar tournament, in part because I had no plan. And was not focused. This year the plan was simple: use exactas to build the bankroll and go all in on the last race of the day with a horse and a bet I really liked.

That was the plan, in theory. I love that game theory aspect of tournaments. But I got rattled…as you’ll read.

About an hour before post, we got the news the races would be off the turf and a pair of stakes races would be canceled altogether. Not great.

Rather than a solid 13-race card, we were down to 11 races and nothing on the turf. It was too late to back out - and I wasn’t going to punt the entry - so we had to play the cards we were dealt.

Race 2:
New for 2024 - How about being able to toggle between your live betting at NYRA Bets and your contest account? On either mobile or desktop. That is an excellent upgrade from NYRA. Easy easy easy.

So, Race 2…I was not planning to bet on Race 2, but the price was right.
Friend of the Devil was training well coming in and taking money. You're REALLY gambling in these 2 YO races but 7-1 felt like a good gamble - especially given his training.

Played 15 win/place and $5 ex 34/8.

The Result: The first-time starter broke slowly and was never a factor. One for the watch list, but a loser today. I should not be betting on first-time starters in a tournament where I don’t have to. Also right out of the gate, I’ve bailed on exacta bets only. Pain.

(-$40)

Race 3
This was one I had planned hours earlier.

Scratches made #1 Deck of Cards a real threat to wire at a short price. I thought Movie Moxie was the only one who might be able to upset and the exacta paying $5 for every $1 bet was an appealing way to make $150 on a race where the favorite looked legit.

I played a $35 exacta 1-8 and a $5 8-1…yeah yeah, insanity backup. I didn’t box Smarty Jones and Birdstone in 2004 and I’m not over it.

The Result: Deck of Cards won, as expected. I just needed the #8 for second and a nice bankroll boost…

The OTHER Linda Rice horse rallied late to get the right head-bob. I cheered home Movie Moxie from my basement. It did not help.

This was tilting. Rather than make $100 bucks on the race, I lost $40.

(-$40)

Race 5
At this point, tilt has set in folks.

In real life, I was all over the #8 I Got Game. Bad trip, good works….but again this was a 2 YO race and he was being bet like he might end up the favorite.

But what if I didn’t bet on him??
And then what if he won???
Could I live with myself????

The answer should have been yes. This was a MSW race and I was taking a short price. Not a good tournament bet.

Alas, a straight $40 win bet was placed at 3-1.

The Result: More pain. And another brutal trip. From DRF.com: lost footing st, 5-6w early, bumped 4w 3/8, 8w uppr, bump 3/16p. I can’t say I added him to the watch list, he was already there.

What a dumb bet.

(-$40)

Race 6
This one hurt. I liked the only experienced runner in the field, #5 El Prestigio. He went off at 5-1 and ran second to a freak they paid $1.3M for.

In my pre-tourney notes, I had planned to bet exactas keying off the 5 and using 1 and 4. But after that forced, stupid bet in Race 5, I sat on my hands and didn’t bet a nickel.

The Result: 1-5-4. $20 exacta for every $1. The .50 trifecta paid $78! This was a race I liked, planned on betting but ended up punting because I had tilt-fired on Race 5. Pain. Pain. Pain. Tilt. Tilt. Tilt.

It’s not a lot of fun to write up losing recaps, but this is especially painful.

Race 8 - The Test
Tilt has now very much set it. And now I just want to be right vs. trying to win the most money, which is never the right play in tournaments.

Ways and Means looks like a lock. Love the way Denim and Pearls is coming into the race.

$40 cold exacta 4-2. At least it was an exacta I planned on betting.

The Result: Ways and Means rolls, Denim and Pearls is never a threat. The other Brad Cox gets second at a nice 4-1.

(-$40)

Race 11 - The Whitney
Looking at the Leaderboard - which is right there and when you’re winning is great to see your name up there but when you’re losing it is NOT all that fun - I’m drawing dead here. Maybe if I can cash an exacta here I can bet it all on the longshot I like in the last race and it might be enough to make a few bucks today.

National Treasure can’t lose. First Mission is going to come off the pace today. Straight $40 exacta to get some bucks for the finale.

The Result: Turns out National Treasure CAN lose. Arthur's Ride gate to wire on a wet track. I assumed he was a speed and fade player. He never faded. First Mission was bad and didn’t come from off the pace. National Treasure was worse. A terrible Whitney opinion.

(-$40)

Race 13
I’m out of money at this point. This is actually Race 11 after the cancellations. The plan was a Drake’s Passage/Cyber Ninja exacta to win the tournament. I wrote last week that Drake’s Passage “was the most likely winner on the card.”

And if I was down big, all the money on Cyber Ninja to win.

Drake’s Passage ran dead last. At 2-5.

Cyber Ninja was 3rd at 4-1.

Final Tally:
Five races
Zero cashes
Dumb bets
Bad opinions
Tilt City
(-$300, DFL)

I have not been good in these live money tournaments. I need to control my emotions better after a tough beat. That goes for my real-life bankroll, too.

My opinions were bad but when you couple them with tilted betting, you simply can’t win. Add in making a few bets I didn’t plan on betting and you have all the ingredients for an account balance of $0.00 at the end of the tournament.

Love the NYRA Bets Tournament setup. Sign up and register right in your account. Could not be easier to place bets and see both balance and leaderboard. And the easy login process where the contest is right in my account is a great upgrade for players.

Didn’t love my results. We will jump in again soon.

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This is bad news for horseplayers.

Craig Milkowski spent years in the game working on the TimeFormUS speed figures - they account for pace and are very valuable.

In addition, he would spend time retiming races when there were errors. I’m not an expert, but it seems racetracks have an archaic system of timing races and often make mistakes. This leads to mistakes in speed figures because many of those figs are based on the final time of the race. If the race is mistimed for whatever reason, the figure will be wrong.

That’s a big deal.

Craig would point out, for example, when a seagull messed up the fractions of a race. Seriously.

He’s also a smart guy who appears to care about racing. The sport keeps losing good people and this is another one.

Best of luck to Craig going forward. Shame on DRF/Eqiuibase for not finding a way to keep him on board - he makes the game better for the horseplayer. Not many people can say that in 2024.

MutStack Play of the Day for August 10, 2024

Two races canceled and off the turf today leaves us struggling for a true “Play of the Day.”

Race 8 - The Saratoga Special
I don’t know if he can rate, but if he can Keep It Easy can upset Touchy here. The outside post should allow him to sit off that one and be there late. He improved big time in his second start and a horse that he beat came back to run 10 points faster on Beyer in his next race. Smoken Wicked was posted wide and did not have the best trip last time. Maybe a little slow. Showcase has to be left in the mix. Tough edition of the Saratoga Special.

9-5-1-2

Just like last week, ⭐⭐⭐ are marked as top plays/ideas. For whatever that’s worth.

Race 1
As always, watch the board in these 2 YO races. Innovator looks tough from the inside but I’ll take a small shot against with Sandman. Mark Casse came to Saratoga loaded and this one has the speed to be involved early. Cost $1.2 million. Jujubee caught a wet track on debut and is working steadily for this one + blinkers on.

2-1-5

Race 2 ⭐⭐⭐
Hurricane Nelson will be odds-on and could be long gone early. He’ll face some pace pressure from Banned for Life and others, so another small shot against a favorite with Marche. Worked with Fierceness two back and had no real pace to attack on debut. Irad stays and should get a good trip just off the speed.

2-1-6

Race 3
Secret Rules drops from 40K CLM and has the speed to control from the onset. One I’d be okay singling in the Early Pick 5.

4-1-2

Race 4
On the dirt, I can’t see how Miss Fashionista loses this race.

9-4

Race 5
As bad a race as I can remember being carded on a Saratoga Saturday. I can’t ignore the big drop for Linda and Grab the Glory. Spiritual Lady has been fine on dirt. She’ll beat me, but how can you take 9/5 on Devil Blue Dress when she was 60-1 last time, even on the huge drop. FWIW, Dale Romans 23% (9 for 40) dropping ALW to CLM on the dirt last five years. FWIW #2 - Is the workout partner for my Special pick, Take it Easy. Still don’t want her on top in this race.

6-7-5

Race 6
CANCELED

Race 7 ⭐⭐⭐
I don’t know what price he’ll be after scratches, but I want to bet Clock Tower here. Has big speed and a race on the dirt. Breaks from the 6-hole and can take them all the way. 2-1 or 5/2 seems fair. Looked like a very run race on the turf. I miss turf racing.

11-12-1

Race 8
SEE ABOVE

Race 9 - The Troy (OFF TURF)
Yikes. Just a five-horse field but I had a hard time here…I’ll hope Disarmed blasts off and is able to wire this goofy bunch. Will have to deal with Step Forward - that one who has no dirt races but will likely be fast out of the gate. Thin White Duke could be the closer who takes advantage if the thing melts down. Not much conviction here, so feel free to ignore this analysis.

13-12-5

Race 10
CANCELED

Race 11
I thought Dot’s Dollar had a bit of a stumble around the turn in his last race. Prat seemed to ease off after that and coast home last. The race two back puts him in the mix today and at 9/2, I’m betting. Banyan Breeze feels like a classic "‘wiseguy’ horse, especially with Irad aboard.

4-7-6

Race 12
I thought Drake’s Passage was a lock in the finale last week. That one race last. I think Halina’s Forte is the last race lock today. Just better than these on dirt. Value Area might get a sweet trip off the speed and the only other I’d use. Golden Degree will blast off from the inside.

10-11

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trip for all.

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We had hoped to see a “star” emerge last Saturday in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy (Presented by our friends at Mohegan Sun). Instead, we saw one reemerge.

Fierceness has not raced since his pace-chasing effort in the Kentucky Debry. I picked Fierceness in that race (a lot of people did) because he seemed like the one horse in this group that might be special. He flashed brilliance in the BC Juvenile last year and the Florida Derby this spring.

On Saturday that talent flashed again. Even while drifting out a bit in the lane, John Velazquez was able to refocus the 9/5 second choice and get him to power home a winner, getting a strong 103 Beyer in the process.

And it seemed to do it pretty easy. You can argue that Sierre Leone (102 Beyer) might appreciate the extra eighth of the mile of the Travers, but I’m getting a little tired of that one’s inability to get home a winner, even with a good set-up.

It sounds like Fierceness is pointed to the Travers, with Sierra Leone, Dornoch, and Thorpedo Anna to make up what looks like a terrific running of the race if it stays together.

Another move forward there can make Fierceness the star racing is looking forward heading into the second half of the 2024 season.

As you can see above, today’s Whitney Day Saratoga Stack is presented by my friends at The Brook Casino in Seabrook, NH.

One of the more shortsighted things I did when it came to New England racing was opting to play the races at home vs. going to Suffolk Downs and/or Rockingham Park when they were still running. I missed out on good live racing right in my backyard as well as the chance to meet some real racetrack characters.

Thankfully, The Brook has built out an awesome space for horseplayers.

I ended up going there early to watch and play the Late Pick 5 from Saratoga before the Ray Bourque Event last Saturday. A couple of things stood out….

• The new screen. It’s massive. Great for racing because you can put Saratoga on there and then the rest of the Saturday sports action on other smaller screens around it. A dozen tracks and games were going on and all of them were easy to find and watch. Excellent viewing from everywhere.

• For me, when I’m focused on the racing and there by myself, having my own private carrel where I can handicap and bet and have control over the screen in front of me…that’s preferred. The Brook has plenty of those. You can reserve a seat weekend seat right here. Just pick your day. Those carrels are my seat of choice, solo.

  

• If you’re going with a group, reserve one of the couch areas. Right in the middle of the room, food and drink service right at your seats. Nice spot.

• They were not in last week, but The Brook is adding “Captains Chairs” in the middle of the room.

• It was a little too hot and humid to fully enjoy Saturday, but The Deck outside off the sportsbook will be a great spot for football and fall racing.

• If you sign up with their free rewards program, they offer rebates for players, with bonus rebates at Saratoga and Del Mar this summer.

But getting back to missing out on the energy of a live race track. What I loved playing Saratoga there Saturday were the tables full of diehard horseplayers firing away with me.

Walking by one of their tables on the way to get the first of multiple free refills of Diet Pepsi, a race had just gone final at Saratoga. Seconds later one of the diehards says to the table, “Okay who do we like in the next?”

And the place got loud when the horses got to the top of the stretch as fans cheered home their picks. That’s what you’re missing yelling at your laptop or TV by yourself at home.

I know many people reading this will go to The Brook for the sportsbook and I get it. But if you’re a racing fan, from one player to another, they've has built an excellent space for us in Seabrook. Look forward to getting back there later this summer.

The Grade I Whitney Stakes
1 1/8 MILES
5:42PM EST

A stat before we start the day: races on the main track going a mile and longer so far this meet - Post Positions 7 and out are a combined 4 for 55 (7%). Of the 37 races run, 20!!! have been won by horses in the 1,2, or 3 post. 54%!

The inside and speed have been good.

That sets the stage for National Treasure to continue his accent to the top of the older horse division. He’s inside, he’s speed and he’s training well. Does Arthur’s Ride really want to run with this one…can he run with this one early? He’ll have to break and he still may cost himself his best chance by battling National Treasure.

If he does lose, I think First Mission is the best choice to upset. Trainer Brad Cox says they’ll try and come from off the pace today. He has a fast race on a wet track. Don’t love him but he’s my best upset idea.

I wish Disarm was training better coming in- he can save ground like he did in the Travers and get a piece. Warrior Johnny working big coming in but might be a notch below. Crupi ran into Next last time and is third off the layoff.

We’ll see of National Treasure lives up to the hype later today.

3-5-2-4

A note on today’s picks… my ‘top’ plays for whatever that’s supposed to mean, noted by ⭐⭐⭐ next to the race.

A reminder on days like this - watch the board when it comes to the 2 YO races - and there are some good ones today. And the track is sloppy as of this writing so keep an eye on how the track is playing. It’s just another variable you have to factor in. Good luck.

UPDATE - We are now off the turf for the entire card and two races have been canceled. A brutal break for NYRA on one of their biggest days of the year. Races 7 and 10 cancelled. Race OFF, being run at a mile out of the Wilson Chute.

Race 1
OFF THE TURF. Nothing exciting here. Assertiveness or Reach the Rose will likely win. Note Assertiveness has had trouble breaking in his works. We’ll see if that’s a factor today.

8-4

Race 2
Guessing game here and I’ll take a small shot with Friend of the Devil. Working well and trainer Carlos Martin has had okay success with 2 YO. Probability and The Toner both taking money in the doubles as of 10 AM Saturday.

8-3-4

Race 3
Scratches really help Deck of Cards here. Can wire this group. Movie Moxie had a rough start in the last and has worked well since. It’s one of those two for me and I’ll put the bigger ML price on top.

8-1

Race 4
Elliptic broke her maiden going a mile two back. Last time was steadied into that first turn. Steady works since and had the early speed to get good position.

7-12-3

Race 5 ⭐⭐⭐
I have to lose a few bucks on I Got Game. Ran into a good horse on debut and had a terrible trip last time. There might be some real talent in here but as a trip handicapper, I have to bet this one. Watch the board.

8-7-3-5

Race 6 ^⭐⭐⭐
Again, watch the board and the money. I’ll reach a price with El Prestigio. Classic Steve Asmussen - second-time starter, very good work two back, then a maintenance work in last. Won with one like this last Saturday. Praetor looks live.

5-4-2

Race 7
I’ll always side with the European turf horses in races like this. Diego Velazquez and Legend of Time for me. There’s a world where White Paomino wires this group.

4-3-8

Race 8
Ways and Means way the horse to beat. She runs her race, she wins. Great to see Brightwork back in here and hope she comes back running. My exacta horse is Denim and Pearls - I thought she was awesome in the Beaumont two back. Has a win at 7F and was working with Wet Paint last time.

4-2-6

Race 9
More Than Looks was awesome last yeat and did not disgrace himself in the BC Mile. And of those last three races last yeat and he wins this today. Irish Aces will be an ‘A’ on my Late Pick 5 tickets - third off the layoff and set for a good one. Kubrick gets a wet turf, will be a good price but might be a cut below.

9-4-1

NOW OFF THE TURF AT A MILE

Film Star now looks to have this group over a barrel. Swiftsure might be able to clear and take them a long way from the inside. Pioneering Spirit has some okay dirt races.

10-3-7

Race 10-
Cogburn is the best and faster turf sprinter in the country. He likes wet turf. If he breaks, he wins. Horses I’ll use underneath and as ‘Cs” in the Pick 5: Mischief Magic will like the going and has races that put him in the mix…Sousa Summer might be able to sit right off Cogburn all the way around…Thin White Duke will be coming late an I always root for Steve Crist’s horse.

6/1-9-11

Race 11
SEE ABOVE

Race 12
Striker Has Dial was second to Ways and Means two back, has early speed and has a win on a wet track. St. Benedicts Prep just missed and has to be considered a contender. Audacious has been working with talented Agate Road and could win. So could Zadorsky or Miss Enchanted…tough race!

2-7-5

Race 13
MTO Drake’s Passage lays over this group and is the most likely winner of the day from where I’m sitting in my basement.

15-5-14

15-5 exacta ⭐⭐⭐

Brutal break for NYRA with the turf. Good luck if you’re playing.

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PROGRAMMING NOTE

Pumped to join Mr. Ice and Turk on Sunday morning for the Barstool Sports Saratoga Doubles show. We’ll try and nail the early double and start a Sunday at the Spa with a win. I’ll post the link on X.com or follow Elio to get the show live on Sunday morning.

Strong results from the Jim Dandy Card - a $20 winner to start the card helps.

Let’s try and keep it going Sunday.

I’m posting these well before scratches and will try and update but no promises.

That was a hell of a comeback for Fierceness in the Jim Dandy. The 103 Beyer is strong. Sierra Leone ran his race and will probably appreciate the mile and a quarter of the Travers. And how about Thorpedo Anna heading to that race too - the Mid-Summer Derby is shaping up as one of the best races of the year.

Some ideas for a tough Sunday card…

Race 1
As always in these two-year-old races, watch the money. My Shot has plenty of win-early pedigree. Trainer Tom Amoss is 3 for 8 debuting two-year-olds on the dirt last five years at Saratoga. Two of those three wins have been with fillies. Good works, gets Jose Ortiz. My best guess.

2-6-4-7

Race 2
I’m guessing there’ll be scratches here but hopefully we can lean on Bern Rosey Bern early. Dirtied form off those turf races. Has run fine on dirt. Big drop for Mike Maker - he’s 21% turf to dirt at Saratoga and has had success elsewhere with this sort of drop. George’s Vice dopping for Linda and that’s always dangerous. What if Golden Dagger likes the dirt?

4-2-5

Race 3
Shesalittle Edgy has two wins at the distance, is dropping, and looks faster than all these. Short price likely but can’t find a great alternative.

6-5-7

Race 4
Just focusing on the turf sprints, Delightful Dixie fits here. Should get the ML price with Mike Dini training. A little scary betting Luis Saez…ice cold to start the meet.

4-6-5-3

Race 5
Regulatory Risk the obvious horse to beat but what about Standoutsensation? Her last Beyer and Timeform number put her right with the winner. Training big and gets a jock upgrade. 6-1 ML a fair price to take a shot against Risk.

3-4-7

Race 6
Won’t spend a lot of time trying to beat the $445K Chad Brown horse Opulent Restraint. Oliva’s Potion might be able to take them a long way given the inner turf has been kind to speed. Good Long Cry should be fine going longer.

3-5-6-1

Race 7
It sounds like BC Turf Sprint champ Nobals is going to run here. If he runs his race, they’re not beating him today even off the long layoff. Our Shot is interesting. Ran well at Keeneland. Bad trip next. Now gets the rail and a pace to run at. Useable horse here even with the favorite.

1-3-8-9

Race 8
I stared at this race for a while. I don’t like it. I’ll hope that the layoff helped Blue Plate Special as this gelding has races early this year that put him in the mix off the drop. For Some Reason flashed a big work and might be ready to wake up. Tough race, good luck.

7-4-2

Race 9
Silver Knott a deserving favorite here, but I would not be singling. Solider Rising loves Saratoga and the distance. Training well coming in and if ready off the layoff should be right there. And Ohana Honor is in career form. Will be using all three in some form in the late Pick 5….and even some Strong Quality who can wire this field in some scenarios.

2-5-1-6

Race 10
He’ll have to avoid a pace battle with favorite Laurel Valley, but let’s try Miracle Mike in the finale. Full disclosure - I met one of the owners of this one Saturday night at The Brook Casino. The last time I met an owner and his horse was running, Baby Yoda crushed on Belmont Weekend at Saratoga…and I didn’t bet him. Won’t make that mistake again. Karma play.

5-2-8-7

Good luck if you’re playing. Safe trips for all.

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Late Saturday afternoon, the newly renovated Jim Dandy Bar at Saratoga rockin’ and rolling’, lined four and five deep to get a cocktail and watch the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. The race serves as the local prep for the Travers in August.

It will be an important race for the folks betting on any of the late multi sequences. Middle leg of the Pick 5, which will probably have a pool of over $1M…starts the late Pick 3…part of the Late Pick 4 and the Pick 6. Given the participants - and we’ll get to them - there will be folks who want to single here in this race and hope to spread elsewhere. So yeah, important race from a betting standpoint.

It’s also an important race when it comes to trying to analyze the second half of the 2024 racing season.

The Derby Winner Mystik Dan looks like he’s done for the year. The Belmont winner Dornoch was a gritty winner of the Haskell last Saturday and is the leader in the clubhouse for three-year-old champ.

Saturday’s Jim Dandy presented by Mohegan Sun lines up the upset winner of the Preakness Seize the Grey against Debry runner-up and subsequent third-place finisher in the Belmont Sierra Leone. Batten Down shows up here after a dominant win in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Gould’s Gold ran second in that race and is in the field. Pony Express is listed as a 20-1 outsider but comes in with bullet works that had Bob Baffert (who doesn't even train the horse) gushing on his appearance with Steve Byk this week.

And on the outside of the field is the post-time favorite in the Derby Fierceness, who has not run since but flashed brilliance in the Flordia Derby and the BC Juvenile.

A compact but very interesting group.

I’d like to have the winner in my picks somewhere. And I want them all to come back safe. But selfishly, I’d also love to see a “star” performance.

The sport is lacking stars in 2024. This point was made by my friend “The Big A” Anthony Stabile at Mohegan Sun’s Belmont Day Bash. The biggest draw in racing might be Thorpedo Anna, who romped in the CCA Oaks at Saratoga last Saturday.

She’s been awesome this year and trainer Ken McPeek knows it. He’s worked with Saratoga to let fans watch her train on the main track or Oklahoma training track every morning at 5:30 AM this week. And fans have been there to greet her. Cool to see.

After Anna…I guess National Treasure is in that tier top tier. Next is a cool horse who keeps destroying marathon fields but needs to show up in a more marquee race. Cogburn looks like a freak turf-sprinting but…it’s turf sprinting. Tapit Trice…okay now I’m reaching.

And then you get to that three-year-old group mentioned above. Plus Mindframe. It would be a huge boost if one of them breaks through over the next few months and up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Maybe even into a four-year-old campaign.

Yes, it’s a betting game. But it’s a better betting game when there are stars to look forward to even if you’re not a degenerate handicapper like me. And right now the game is lacking those stars.

Here’s hoping one will emerge in today’s Jim Dandy. Then, hopefully, Anna, Dornoch, and the rest of the group meet up in August for the Travers.

That would make it a race worth watching even if you didn’t have a few bucks on the race.

But don’t worry we will.

TODAY’S FRIDAY FOUR-PACK IS PRESENTED BY THE BROOK CASINO

A couple of handicapping thoughts before we get into the card…

• The speed on the main track at Saratoga has been good. Thursday and Friday this week I’d call very good. Something to monitor this weekend if you’re playing.

• The inner turf played kind to speed once the rails came down, as noted by Nick Tammaro. Again, something to monitor

MutStack Top Play 7-27-24
Saratoga Race 6
Grade I Vanderbilt

When Manama Gold did not get away well in the Lake George, I knew we were in trouble. But we did have the exacta in our top three then Pounce held off Oversubscribed. But not a winner.

The hope here is that Nakatomi and Skelly take the money and we get close to the 7/2 ML on Baby Yoda. The horse loves Saratoga (6-4-0-1) and ran his faster Beyer here. Training well coming in. Can sit off the pace and power home late. Subrogate feels like the main threat.

4-5

Race 1
Have to use the early betting as a guide here. Without that, I can’t find a lot of turf pedigree to go on here and am left to guess. Trainer Bill Mott is 4 for 13 (31%) going sprint to route on the turf at Saratoga the last two years, so I’ll guess with Simulate. West Beach has experience, too. Firsters Atomic Age and Barricade look most interesting.

2-7-3-10

Race 2
Very interested in seeing the early double will-pays to Tinepar. Got bet on debut, broke a little slow, and then watching the head-on replay he just never looked comfortable. Training well and I expect a much better effort today.

5-3-8

Race 3
Trainer John Ortiz is 3 for his last 10 (30%) dropping horses in class from ALW to CLM on the dirt. Over the last five years, he’s 12-51 (24%). He has not tried the move in NY but it’s a go-to for him elsewhere. Master of Arms is fast enough ans makes that drop. Good enough for me in a 25K CLM. Scratches help Charlie Five O and the ice-cold Rudy Rod.

7-1A-9

Race 4
A lot of us had Kentucky Derby future bets on Speak Easy after he romped on debut. That was six months ago! If he comes back running he wins for fun, but that’s a big if. Not a race I have a lot of interest in betting.

5-4-8

Race 5
Race sets up for ML fave Who’s the King to take them all the way around. Yo Daddy has a race at Keeneland that puts him in the mix here and will use as well.

4-2-10

Race 6
See above

Race 7
Really nice group on paper. They paid $1.2 million for Invictus and he looks like he could be touch on debut. Chancer McPatrick working well for his debut. Some good hidden works on Noble Confessor. As usual, watch where the money comes in and adjust your ideas if needed.

1-6-4

Race 8
Have been betting Lamorna hoping for a clean trip and I’m ready to do it again today. Aunt Nona ran better than it looks after a slow start last time at 43-1.

7-8-4

Race 9
My heart says we should be rooting for Patriots die-hard and owner of Drunk on Sake Jimmy Politano here, but my money will be elsewhere. West Hollywood looks like the winner here at what will be a short price. Navy Seal finally gets back to turf.

8-3-9

Race 10
The Grade II Jim Dandy

Lots of speed here really seems to set this up for Sierra Leone, right? Prat has been lights out and he’ll try and save ground and mow them down late. Even money for a reason here. He’s supposed to win this race. Period. Derby selection Fierceness going to be confronted early and maybe he freaks and wins but hard to have any confidence. Batten Down in good form. Against Seize the Grey … until they cut him back in the Jerkens.

1-3-6

Race 11

Taking a swing at 20-1 with American Grant here. Super wide two-back. Last time wide late. His speed figures are light for this level and he’ll need a perfect trip but I need to take one more shot after his last two. Include in your horizontal bets. Gem Mint Ten and Willintroriskitall will be on my tickets. Whistler’s Honor and Ez Roll in the mix. Wide open, let’s get a price home.

5-10-4

Race 12
Tough race to end the day. Summer Whirl did everything but win last time and will be tough. Autumn should fit this mile distance just fine and has early speed. Miss City girl gets blinkers and should be right there. Staying away from the outside posts here, myself.

4-5-1

Big day.

Back tomorrow with a special Sunday Saratoga Stack and will join Mr. Ice and Turk on Sunday morning for the Barstool Sports Saratoga Doubles show at 11:30AM. We’ll try and nail the early double and start a Sunday at the Spa with a win. I’ll post the link on X.com or follow Elio to get the show live on Sunday morning.

Good luck if you’re playing and safe trips for all.

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