2024 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Final Thoughts

The Derby winner v. The Preakness winner vs. the rest at Saratoga. Picks grid!

Legendary sports writer Red Smith, when asked how one would get to Saratoga, allegedly and famously responded -

“From New York City you drive north for about 175 miles, turn left on Union Avenue, and go back 100 years.”

There is a deep history of big races at The Spa. And they’ll add to that history on Saturday when the oldest venue in American sports hosts the Belmont Stakes, the final leg of the Triple Crown.

There are picks for the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga plus EIGHT other races below. Plenty of ideas for you to trash or tail, I promise.

First, some housekeeping.

She did it again.

My friend Jessica Paquette - the voice of racing at Parx - gave us another awesome pick as part of the MutStack Belmont Stakes Roundtable.

First, it was a 47-1 shot on the Derby undercard.
Then it was Seize the Grey at 10-1 in the Preakness.
And Friday at Saratoga it was Didia at an unfathomable 9-1 off her 9/2 morning line.

And people were happy.

At this point, I can confidently say you are costing yourself money by not listening to her analysis on the podcast.

Thankfully for you, she has opinions on the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga PLUS the Late Pick 5 PLUS a bonus pick for Sunday.

Listen ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️ right here or find us on Spotify.

Dick Jerardi - my other guest - LOVES a horse in Race 8. Just listen. It’s under an hour. And free.

Oh hey, the subscribe button. If you like our content or maybe you cashed on our opinions this spring, please consider subscribing. Again, FREE, and a huge help.

Here are the current odds as of 9 AM EST for the Belmont Stakes.

Hopefully, the MyRaceHorse owners keep pouring it in on Seize the Grey.
Sierra Leone’s 5/2 is coming down for sure. Still early. Worth watching.

No Belmont Stakes analysis would be complete without the opinion of Mohegan Sun’s Brad Bryant. Before running the most horseplayer-friendly sportsbook in the country, he worked in Vegas and subsequently at Fairgrounds Race Course.

Bombers’s take on Belmont 156.

No standouts in this field. Bomber is rolling with #8 Honor Marie 12/1. Sticking with my Derby selection as Marie was jostled hard early and really never had a chance. Jockey switch to Flo the Jock is a major upgrade. 

Couple of horses to use as well:

#5 Antiquarian-Improving with every start
#6 Dornoch - Training extremely well

Wagers:
WP #8
Exactas 8/5,6
ExBox 5,6,8

---

---

You can see my full-field analysis of the Belmont Stakes right here.

Win Contenders
Sierra Leone, Resilience, Antiquarian, Mystik Dan and to a much lesser extent Mindframe would be my win contenders.

Weather: Perfect. The only place I’d rather be than in the backyard at Saratoga is where I will be, the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook. Come say hello.

The Track: I felt like the speed was pretty good on the main Friday. Speed is always good going longer at Saratoga.

The Selection: The way Mindframe wins this is by going right to the front and just taking this group wire-to-wire OR he has to rate from the outside and pass more experienced horses late. There’s at least some chance he’s a freak and that first option plays out, but I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome. Fringe win contender but will use defensively in multis.

Mystik Dan might be able to get another perfect trip, but I’m not very excited to bet on it. But I’d be ignoring his last two races not to acknowledge that he’s fast enough to win Saturday. But he needs a trip. Again.

Sure feels like Antiquarian is the ‘wise-guy’ horse in this year’s Belmont. But he’s bred to get the distance. Never looked like a loser in the Peter Pan and should sit a nice trip just off the other speed.

The most likely scenario is Sierra Leone finally putting it all together and winning on Saturday. He’ll be coming late, gets new equipment and a new jockey, and has reportedly been training well. He’s an ‘A’ in my multi-race bets, but the 9/5 price tag says I just can’t pick him on top.

The horse I want to bet on and will pick on top is Resilience. Ignore the 89 Beyer in the Derby - this horse ran well. Junior Alvarado did a great job getting this horse over from that wide post position and into contention. Today, he gets a cozy inside spot just off the speed. He gets targets in front of him to chase down. Plus he’s coming off a workout that convinced trainer Bill Mott to run him in this spot. Add in a nice 10-1 ML and he’s my top pick in the 2024 Belmont Stakes.

2-9-3-5-10 would be my old-school, outdated Top 5.

How We’ll Bet the Race: Thanks to Jess’ push of Didia, I will for sure be playing the Late Pick 5 that ends with the Belmont on Saturday.

I’ll be betting on Resilience win/place.
I’ll have a Resilience/Sierra Leone exacta
I’ll probably key Resilience in smaller exactas with my other win contenders.
And key Resilience/Sierra Leone in some tri plays as well.

For the multis, As are 2,9. Bs are 3,5. 10 would be a C.

And we’ll go from there.

But there are NINE graded stakes on Saturday. Some ideas…

Race 4:
Sure, #5 Gun Pilot might crush here, but I think #2 Rotknee can wire this field at 6-1. #7 Baby Yoda is also going to right there. 2-7-5

Race 5:
#2 Casa Creed LOVES Saratoga and if he wins I’ll be cheering, but #7 Talk of the Nation ran a nice race off the layoff and should be primed for this spot. And with Casa Creed in here, we should get 3-1 or better. 7-2-1.

Race 6:
No real opinion here, other than why the heck is Next not running here? He’s the best marathon horse in training. 7-8-3

Race 7:
You won’t get a price but I’m not trying to beat #5 Idiomatic. Single in whatever multis you want.

Race 8:
Hoping the pace heats up and allows #3 Imagination to run them down on the cutback, but will be deep here in the Pick 5. #7 Prince of Monaco has huge buzz coming in.  #11 Maximus Meridius and #9 Nash also merit respect and you can probably go deeper from there. Baffert exacta. 3-7-11-9

Race 9:
#2 Arzak makes a lot of sense off his win in the Shakertown. #8 Cogburn can win - but off that trip last time I’m fine fading as he’s going to be massively overbet, especially given all the winners Irad Orti Jr. has these last two days. Take a look on the trip #12 Mischief Magic had in his last. Hate the post here but he can win at a price. 2-12-10-6.

Race 10:
6-2. 2-6. If one of them loses, I lose.

Race 11:
#7 Nations Pride might have needed that last race off a six-month layoff. Six for right at the distance and won here two summers ago. One of my strongest opinions of the day. Win bet. Go. 7-9-5

Ideas from the podcast team.

It should be an awesome day of racing at Saratoga. Reports from the city say the “place is packed, energy crazy, feels like a Derby Day.” Hopefully, the racing can hold up its end of the bargain. Sounds like Saratoga sure has.

Good luck with all your bets. Will update this for major scratches if needed around 1 PM.

Safe trips for all. Thanks for reading.

Bonus Take from Dick Jerardi

#3 IDIOMATIC (3/5) in The Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes (Race 7)

“She won’t be a price but she also won’t lose a race all year.”

Strong words from the veteran handicapper