2024 Preakness Stakes Final Thoughts

Mystik Dan tries to keep Triple Crown hopes alive with Belmont at Saratoga looming

Yeah, let’s get the weather out of the way first.

It’s going to rain. Some of the forecasts are calling for rain off and on all day. Others have it tapering off after noon. And others have the potential for thunderstorms that could bring some real precipitation.

Aside from dampening one of the four or five bigger days in racing all year, it’s another variable you have to at least account for in your handicapping.

For me, the rain means I’ll bet less than planned on the card. Especially if some of the earlier races carded for the turf are taken off.

If you’re able to watch every race at Pimlico, even if you’re not betting every race, keep an eye on how the track is playing. On days like this, there could be a bias thanks to the track condition. Last weekend Pimlico had two days where it rained and from my eye, the sealed muddy track played to speed. But when it started to dry out, it played more fair.

Because of the way the races are carded today and the amount of time between races, there will be almost three hours between the Sir Barton and the Preakness. It will be important to see what they do to the track over those three hours. Hopefully, we get clear updates on X.com and NBC.

An annoying variable if you’re trying to play the Late Pick 5, for sure.

These are the willpays for the BES-PREAKNESS DOUBLE. Note that Tuscan Gold is favored in that pool, though only slightly over Catching Freedom. And Derby winner Mystik Dan is actually the fourth choice. But they’re all pretty close.

And here are the current odds as of 7:45 AM thanks to DRF’s Dan Illman.

There is a lot of time before the race but like me, the public is having a hard time with this race. Full-field thoughts here.

Win Contenders: Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold, Catching Freedom, Imagination, Uncle Heavy.

Yep, I think five of the eight can win. Means it’s a competitive group. Or I have no strong opinion. Or both.

The Selection: From the win contenders, I’ll eliminate Mystik Dan based on his price and the reality of the perfect trips in the Southwest and the Derby. He will like a wet track, he can win, but I can’t take him. Asking Uncle Heavy to jump 15 Beyer points is probably asking too much. He will also like a wet track.

I really wanted to bet Tuscan Gold, who should also be fine with the rain, but as the potential second choice? Eh. I’m hoping DRF had a clocker on him for his two Belmont works. He was beaten pretty well in his last works at Payson by Domestic Product, who did nothing in the Derby.

Imagination can wire this group, but I would not bet on it at 7/2 or 4-1. I lost all confidence in Detorri with some of his decisions on Derby Day. Can also see one if not BOTH Lukas horses contesting the pace now. And Mystik Dan will probably be closer. Maybe we get a sneaky pace.

Which I’ll need, because I’m backing Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox and Catching Freedom. They could have held out and pointed for the Belmont at Saratoga with this son of Constitution, but Cox wheels him back in two weeks. From DRF’s Dave Grening, at Pimlico Thursday AM - “After watching Catching Freedom gallop just now I can see why connections willing to run back in two weeks.” Already has a win at this distance. Had 42 days off into the Derby and might have actually needed that race. He’ll need some pace to run into, but at 3-1 or better, he’s the top pick.

How I’m Betting: Given the unknown track condition, this is still up in the air. It could be as simple as a win bet on Catching Freedom at 3-1. I think the best price to use in tris and supers is Uncle Heavy. But what if it’s all speed on the track today? Hard to push these two if that’s the case.

3-8-9-2 would be my “official” picks if it were 1997 and I had to get these to a DRF editor 48 hours before the race. Thankfully, we can adjust later today depending on the weather.

From the desk of Bomber Brad of Mohegan Sun’s FanDuel Sportsbook - a man allergic to picking chalk.

“As mentioned in the Derby write-up, the quickest way to get broke is by playing suspect horses at short odds. From a business standpoint, I am pulling for Dan as much as anyone. Can he win, absolutely! Will he win, I don't think so. Bomber likes #7 Just Steel. Bumped at the start & used early in the Derby. Lukas makes a jockey switch and I think this spot is a perfect fit for Just Steel. Lays just off pace and closes better than all others in the field.

Play Steel to WP and Exacta Box 7,8,9.”

Pick 5 ideas below, but plenty of Preakness ideas on the podcast. Thanks to Jessica Paquette and Dick Jerardi for joining me. And credit to Substack for an excellent app to play the podcast in.

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Put together our picks grid from the podcast. You can click on it to enlarge it.

My strongest opinion in the sequence is #5 Running Bee in Race 12. Trainer Chad Brown has this horse poised for a big effort today.

I wanted to single #8 Tuscan Sky in the Sir Barton (Race 10) but the Todd Pletcher barn has been ice cold.

Will be pretty spread in the 10th and 11th.

As for the Preakness, I’ll probably PRESS with Catching Freedom. Use Imagination and Tuscan Gold as Bs. And Uncle Heavy and Mystik Dan as Cs. My friend Mike D will kill me for using Mystik Dan if I don’t really like him, but given the track condition…it feels silly to leave him off.

Dick Jerardi Build Your Bankroll Ice Cold Early Double (11:41AM)
Race 3: #1 Mirahmadi
Race 4: #3 Disco Ebo

While I don’t love his odds or chances today, Mytsik Dan winning today and setting up a Triple Crown chance at Saratoga in three weeks is pretty appealing. It would be a huge story and good for racing.

But he’s facing a competitive field Saturday and will have to earn it.

Wanted to publish this before a full morning of youth sports here on the homefront.

I will make any updates in the comments below at MutStack.com.

Good luck if you’re playing today. Enjoy the big race. Safe trips for all.

Thanks for reading and listening.