2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Final Thoughts
Big Three Showdown looms. Picks and ideas for the Final Leg of the 2025 Triple Crown
It’s difficult to pick the winner of a horse race. My account balances with NYRA Bets and DK Horse are a testament to that. So, I know that when I write the following, it could very well look silly at about 7:15 EST tonight.
I think the Belmont Stakes is going to be something special.
The Derby Top 3 - Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza - all meet up in the 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. All three are fast and have shown big ability, in addition to ‘star’ quality.
I could see the three of them battling ding-dong to the wire and giving us a Belmont stretch run for the ages.
I would also not be surprised if one of the three, Journalism or Baeza in particular, put on a show and win by open lengths. Maybe not ‘Arrogate in the Travers’ big, but pretty big.
Could I be projecting that? Sure. All three are easy to root for. All three look like they’ll be potential stars, and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for a big showdown.
I want this to be a great race.
Legendary Boston sports radio host Eddie Andleman used to say, “Have a hunch, bet a bunch.” My hunch is that this ends up being a thriller in Saratoga tonight.
I’m not sure I’ll be betting a bunch, at least on the Belmont Stakes as an individual race. I have a rooting interest in who I want to win, but he might not be the best bet in the race, based on the odds. The betting in this race matters, but I’m more excited to watch and see how it plays out, rather than betting it as a standalone event, if that makes sense.
I went through the field in Friday’s newsletter. Below are my final thoughts on betting the race, as well as picks for the rest of the card at Saratoga.
There is rain in the forecast, and this will be posted before any scratches or track condition updates, but I will try to update for any significant changes later from Mohegan Sun at their annual Belmont Bash. I’ll also be active on X.com during the day. If you’re at Mohegan, come say hello.
I am fortunate that sharp handicappers like Parx announcer Jessica Paquette and longtime turf and sportswriter and now tournament star Dick Jerardi answer the call every time I reach out to book them for the MutStack Podcast.
We did a deep dive on the Belmont Stakes and tried to find some winners on the undercard. Some ideas from the podcast are in the grid above, but watch or listen for a more in-depth preview. And comment below on who you like in the Belmont!
With about $1.4 million in the win pool, these were the current odds for the Belmont Stakes as of 6 AM Saturday, courtesy of DK Horse.
I’m going to exclude the Belmont Gold Cup, as you had a bunch of turf horses going a mile and three-quarters on a sloppy dirt track, and point out that the wet track played to speed in the other three races once the rain came on Friday afternoon.
They sealed the track overnight as Saratoga got even more rain. In my experience, these sloppy/sealed tracks are challenging to make up ground on.
Maybe that's why the Derby winner Sovereignty is 4.5 to 1 in the early betting. He’s a closer in a race that might not have much speed early. He ran super on a wet track in Kentucky, so I’m not worried about that. I actually thought there was a chance he would go off as the favorite. He’s a win candidate and at 9/2, a reasonable price. But will he be able to make his run on a wet track? Or maybe worse for him, a drying out track that’s cuppy and heavy?
Baeza is 3.5 to 1, and that makes sense. He had a rough trip in the Derby and still ran third - he had no right to run that well. Flavien Prat showed Friday why I think he’s the best jockey in the county, and I expect this guy will be forwardly-placed. Win candidate is sitting on a big race and would not be a surprise.
My rooting interest here is Journalism. His Derby was good. His Preakness was special - horses are not supposed to win with that sort of trouble. Not a deep field in Baltimore, but a huge effort. Clocker reports say he looks as good as he did heading into the Derby. I’m hopeful that jockey Umberto Rispoli learned his lesson in the Preakness and doesn’t try to get too cute here. Wet track should not be a factor. What will be a factor is the price - even money seems short against the other two in here.
If the winner does not come from Derby 3, I can see Rodriguez wiring the field. Bob Baffert has told everyone he is going to the lead, and if he’s left alone, he could take them a long way. If they run this race 100 times, he wins it a handful of times, given his early speed and track profile.
Hill Road and Heart of Honor will be closing, but I would only use underneath. Uncaged loves a wet track but seems a cut below. Crudo is a wild card that could impact the race by challenging Rodriguez early.
I usually use price as my separator when trying to pick between two horses I like. In this case, I’ll use potential star power. I can’t get over Journalism’s effort in the Preakness and the way he crushed good horses in California this spring. I’ll be using both he and Baeza as As in the late Picks, but I’ll tab Journalism as my winner of the 2025 Belmont Stakes.
7-6-3-2
Below are my full-card ideas for Saratoga. * = my favorite ideas of the day.
Race 1
2-5-8
Race 2
6-4-10
Race 3 (OFF TURF)
5-12-2
Race 4
9-10-7
Race 5*
3-6-7
Race 6
I’m not going to try to beat #6 Nitrogen here. She looks like one of the more likely winners on the card. I’ll use #3 Bessie Abott and #1 Al Jafar underneath in exactas and tris.
6-3-1
Race 7
Stuck out in the 11th post in a field of 11, #6 Mullikin had very little chance last time. Now he can either go to the front or sit off at another speed. Options for Prat and at 5/2 or even 2-1, I’m betting.
6-4-3
Race 8*
Will take a stand here against #2 White Abarrio. He’s working well and has real talent, but I think he wants longer. I’m also against #5 Raging Torrent coming back from a tough race overseas.
#1 Fierceness the horse to beat and I’ll try and beat him with #4 Just a Touch. This guy can sit just off Raging Torrent or go to the lead if that guy falters. I loved him last year, and he comes in in terrific form off of two big races. 4-1/1-4 exactas.
4-1-2
Race 9
#9 AG Bullet had a brutal trip last time. Prat getting aboard is a good thing. Feels like the right alternative to deserving favorite #2 Think Big.
9-4-2
Race 10
Will not take a strong stance against the #1 Zulu Kingdom. One horse I’ll use in exactas and tris is #10 Thirteen Colonies. Green on debut, trouble in the second start, and then put it all together in the MSW win last time. Should be a big price and flashed a nice kick in that Keeneland win.
2-10-7
Race 11
Best betting race of the day. I’ll be spread here as a bunch of these can win. With the scratch of #7 Colloquial, #8 Gunmetal won’t be 8-1, but I still like him. Has good speed and can sit off the early pace. #9 Neoequos cuts back after doing okay going longer against better, should be a nice price. The other Brad Cox horse, Patch Adams, is another contender here. Using more than these three in the Pick 5, for sure.
8-9-4
Race 12*
The whole world saw the trouble he had last time, but at 9/2, Integration will likely be one of my bigger win bets of the day. With the jockey upgrade and a clean trip, he can be right there. Highway Robber was on a CD turf rail that looked bad last time and is a price player. Deterministic might take them a long way upfront.
2-3-5-6
Race 13 - SEE ABOVE
Race 14
Get out special. 10-16 exacta box.
14 races. Let’s go.
Feedback is welcome and appreciated. If you’re a horseplayer and have enjoyed my Triple Crown coverage this season, please share it with other racing fans. It’s a huge help.
The goal of these Saturday newsletters, dating back to the start of the Triple Crown season, is to crush days like today. Just need to be right a few times, and I think we’re set up for a big Saturday.
The Big One looks like a banger on paper - here’s hoping it lives up to the hype.
Thanks for reading, and good luck this weekend! Safe trips for all.