2025 Kentucky Derby Final Thoughts

Journalism looms a big favorite in a Derby where the weather looks to be a factor. Picks!

When the horses cross the finish line Saturday night in the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby, a lucky qualifier here at Mohegan Sun will win this $15,000 bottle of Woodford Reserve.

I’ll just be content to have some money left in my wallet to bet on the race.

Some real missed opportunities Friday on the Oaks card. And the day before that, when I liked Fort Bragg, at a juicy 6-1. I even suggested it to a random gambler in my X.com DMs that he was my pick, then I screwed up the betting of that race royally. Instead of stacks, I won peanuts.

Credit to Jessica Paquette on our Derby Podcast…and ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile…and jockey Chantal Sutherland…they all said #11 Good Cheer would cruise in the Kentucky Oaks. They were right.

Good Cheer looked like she might be in trouble on the far turn, but she powered home wide in the slop to run her record to a perfect seven for seven.

She was the heavy favorite at 6/5 and she delivered for SuperTrainer™️Brad Cox. If you came up with 32-1 Drexel Hill for second, you got a 50-1 exacta with the 6/5 favorite in top. Easy game.

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I like my handicapping to be simple with few variables. Unfortunately, Mother Nature has delivered us a wet Derby 151.

How wet? Not sure. Seeing anywhere from a half to an inch of rain during the day.

If you watch the replay from the Oaks, the 2-3 finishers both came from way back to get into the money. I’m hopeful that signals a fair track where speed is not too dominant. There are many wet track days where the track makes it very hard to make up any ground. The real hard part is that even if we think we know how the track is playing, there will be 127 minutes between the 10th and the next dirt race, the Derby—that’s a lot of time for a track to change.

Actually, the real hard part is trying to predict which horses will like the off-track.

Fellow Substack author Jessica Tugwell writes about horse pedigrees. She took the time yesterday to grade each Derby horse for a wet track based on their pedigree. It’s more in-depth than Kramer’s “His father was a mudder. His mother was a mudder,” OTB moment in Seinfeld. I’ve linked her work here, and I plan on using it should the weather be as wet as projected.

A Rainy Derby? Off Track Pedigree Notes

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My own, full horse-by-horse breakdown can be found here.

I don’t love touting the favorite, but at 3-1, I’m happy to pick #8 Journalism on top. He has an edge on speed figures and has beaten the best horses in California. I’m expecting a fast Derby pace, and that should fit his running style just fine. I thought the Santa Anita Derby was a great learning experience for him, hopefully for his jockey, Umberto Rispoli, too.

Journalism has trained well, coming in and making a great impression on the track this week in Kentucky. If this were just the 4th at Finger Lakes on Tuesday, he might be 2-1 in here. Instead, we get a better price than that on a horse with serious credentials.

Will he handle an off-track? I don’t know, but you can ask the same question about most of these.

I liked Tappan Street, but he’s not here. #9 Burnham Square battled that one in Florida, and let’s get him to fill out the exacta here. His closing style should fit the race, and jockey Brian Hernandez has great experience at Churchill Downs. Second start off that one-month break and training well, he should be right there at the end.

#12 East Avenue was the favorite in the BC Juvenile six months ago. He’ll be 30-1 today and I think he can hit the board. Trainer Brendan Walsh adds blinkers, and the horse responds with a big effort in the Blue Grass, finishing second. Since then, the training reports have been positive. Furthermore, a look at DRF Formulator shows that many times, second-time blinkers are another improvement for Walsh horses. Maybe he tries to gut this field from the bell and runs last - that’s a likely scenario. OR he hangs on for a gutsy third or fourth. OR maybe he can rate off the crazy speed. Either way, at 30-1, I’m going to use in exotics. Too much talent to ignore today and then once they cut him back in distance this summer.

Another Florida horse, #18 Sovereignty, rounds out my superfecta. Bill Mott looks pretty confident in this guy and has taken his time getting here. He’s not considered a great workhorse, but still won off the break to start his campaign in 2025. Now he’s training better and will be flying late. In some ways, I think he’s the most likely upsetter to Journalism.

8-9-12-18 for me*

*subject to change if the track has a major bias

#1 Citizen Bull will probably try to wire and should like the rain…#3 Final Gambit getting some buzz and Cox won yesterday…#5 American Promise way overbet and will like the mud…#7 Luxor Cafe a wild card I’ll use under…#13 Publisher #14 Tiztastic both deep closers for bottom of tickets…#17 Sandman getting bet, big underaly, will be running late…#19 Chunk of Gold from the clouds into the super…#21 Baeza is talented, gets Prat but will be a smart ride.

My favorite plays on the undercard:

Race 11: #6 Taking Candy will benefit from the scratch of another speed and his stablemate, who ran and won on Thursday.

Race 10: #2 Kopion is 8-1 ML. I’ll take 4-1, please. Bad, bad morning line.

Race 9: #7 Zulu Kingdom looks like he’s sitting on a big one. 7-2 exacta.

Race 7: #8 Rouge Lightning, a second-time runner in North America, ran well last time to hold second and gets Prat again—benefits from the scratch of Nobals.

Race 6: #6 Gaming won’t be a huge price, but faced a good one last time. Training well with a good Bob Baffert horse, Goal Oriented, who runs in Race 3.

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Our picks from the MutStack Derby Podcast, which you can listen to here.

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There he is! Mohegan Sun’s The Bomba Brad Bryant is hosting the best Derby Party in New England and has been handicapping races since there was betting on dinosaurs. His analysis -

Today completes the Oaks/Derby Double. Or should I say, the Brad Cox Double! Based on how Final Gambit has worked on the Churchill dirt this week, Brad has him ready to roll. I have no doubt he will love the extra distance which you can't say for many of these still maturing babies.

Suggested plays:
Win/Place #3 Final Gambit
Exacta Box #3, #8, #13, #19

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That’s a lot of Derby coverage. Let’s get some winners…responsibly!

One of the best days and betting cards of the year. Just a few hours away. Updates over on X.com during the day.

We only have to be right a few times to have a winning day, so let’s get it. Good luck at the windows on Derby Day and safe trips for all. 🏇🏻