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Breeders' Cup Saturday
"This weekend...I want all the money."
Hope you crushed Friday.
We did okay - but any dreams of a score were dashed when Fierceness powered home in the Juvenile. Did not have much interest in that one, even if the last race was a toss.
On to Saturday.
Veteran handicapper Dick Jeradri took joined me to preview today’s Late Pick 5.
You can listen right here in this post. I hope you do
There’s lots of other Breeders’ Cup content out there. Two I’ll point out as worth your time.
Love seeing my friend Matt Bernier do his thing on NBC. He went deep with his own thoughts on the Late Pick 5 today on his own show. He’s a very good handicapper. I wish NBC would do MORE handicapping on their broadcasts of these races. But I digress. Great breakdown on the big races today.
The subheadline quote in today’s post comes from Matt’s podcast. He’s swinging for the fences this weekend. Good advice given the potential for prices.
Looking forward to seeing how their site develops. They take a very honest approach to the horse racing industry.
Again, A LOT of content out there. If you have limited time today, the above two will help you find some winners.
And hopefully, we’ll do the same below.
NOTE - This is PRE-SCRATCHES and based on Friday, there will be plenty of scratches today.
Race 2 - The Twilight Derby
I really hope people try and get cute and bet against #6 Webslinger in here. He’s been one of the best turf horses in the division this year. Danced all the dances. Faced the best horses all year and was right with them. Was supposed to run in a stake in NY that, SHOCKER, got rained off. Rather than force him into a BC race, he lands in a spot where to me he stands out. I’ll take 3-1 right now and while not creative, I’m pushing hard to start the day here. #12 Silver Knott the main threat.
Race 3 - The Dirt Mile
My toxic trait is losing money on horses that look like lone speed. It is a legit weakness in my handicapping. I can’t help it. So let’s tab #4 Zozos here. Should be forward at a configuration that has played to speed over and over at Santa Anita. #3 Cody’s Wish has reportedly been training like a monster but he’s going to be 4/5 in here and might not get a set up. Maybe it won’t matter. 4-3-5
Race 4 - The Filly and Mare Turf
This race has been won by either a Chad Brown horse or a Euro invader for over a decade. #6 Inspiral looks like the goods and is a the most likely winner. BUT… Chad Brown’s #1 In Italian might get a slow pace to wire. It’s an open race, but those are my two. Jessica Paquette favorite Didia has a shot here, too. 6-1-9
Race 5 - Filly and Mare Sprint
I am not going to spend a lot of time trying to beat #1 Goodnight Olive here. She fits well and is the most likely winner of the short-priced favorites today. I will be happy to play exactas with #4 Matareya. 1-4-3
Race 6 - The Mile
A wide-open race on paper if you’re not handing it to likely favorite Songline. As mentioned on the podcast, my price play of the day is #2 Gina Romantica. She has the highest turf/mile Beyer and TFUS speed fig of any of the American horses in here. She can save ground and if she finishes like she did last time at Keeneland, watch out. Am a tad worried she might just love the Keeneland green. But at 10-1, I’m willing to find out. Du Jour is one who could really spice up the trifecta. 2-10-8-14
Race 7 - The Distaff
Dick Jerardi and I disagree on the pace here. I think it has to heat up. He thinks #4 Idiomatic can control. I’ll end up on an obvious horse #9 Clairiere. BUT…she is not going to be a great bet. She’s going to be overbet here, especially with the scratch of Pretty Mischievous. Nothing clever here, sorry. 9-4-6-2
Race 8 - The Turf
In the last 24 runnings of this race, Euros have won 19. They look like they have a loaded hand here - just have to find the right one. For me that’s #2 Onesto. Huge run in the Arc at 55-1 and has had trips in two of his last three races. Reportedly wants firm turf and gets it here. Up to the Mark is a cool horse and is the best hope for America here. 2-5-1-8
Race 9 - The Classic
It’s early Saturday and, yeah, still no feel for this race. Well, that’s not true. I think #2 Zandon is in awesome form and is going to run well. I just don’t know if he’s good enough. White Abario is the most likely winner - great form and could sit just off the early pace set by Suadi Crown and Arabian Knight. If those two are allowed to coast, can’t they run 1-2? If Saudi Crown is going to be double-digits in here, he’s my official pick. Tepid pick for sure. Just so much talent there. A lot of sharp people like Ushba Tesoro here - he’d be the first 6-year-old to win the Classic and is going to get bet. 6-2-3-12
Race 10 - The Turf Sprint
I thought Big Evs winning on Friday flatters my pick here, Live In The Dream. Should blast off and can wire this field. The three 5F turf sprints run at Santa Anita in the BC - two in 2019 and one yesterday - speed has won all three. So I’m not worried about that. Big Invasion should get a pace to run at and could run them all down with a clean trip. Motorious is a great name and he’ll be running late. But they all have Live In The Dream to catch. As usual, if Caravel wins, I lose. 5-1-10-12
Race 11 - The Sprint
The injury to Echo Zulu allowed Gunite to run here and he’s my top pick. Toss the last race in the slop going two turns. Can make his own trip from the outside and could even go the lead here. Or sit just off Speed Boat Beach, who is more likely to go. He has a shot, too. Nothing wrong with Dr. Schivel. My price here would be the in-form Hoist the Gold. I’m against Elite Power given the lack of pace in here. 9-7-4-2
Good luck if you’re playing today. I’ll try and tweet out some ideas on betting - but admittedly will be coaching our flag football season finale during the Classic. First time in almost 20 years I won’t be at Mohegan Sun.
Weird year for racing. Weird year for the Classic. Let’s just hope we’re right once or twice today. Okay, three times.