Friday Four-Pack 10.11.24
Maye Day is here but the process sucked. Boston radio ratings review. NFL Picks!
“One of the biggest mismatches so far this season.”
We’ll get to that quote and why it’s so important in a second.
So yeah, safe to say The Mutnansky Brothers are pumped.
Admittedly, I am too. He’s not Jayden Daniels, but Drake Maye was a Josh Allen-like college quarterback who can throw and run. More importantly, he can throw on the run. He drives a pickup truck and sounds like he could have played Johnny Moxon as well as James Van Der Beek did. Okay, maybe not that well.
Process vs. result is something people analyze all the time. If we’re looking at the result - that Drake Maye plays football for the New England Patriots on Sunday - I like the result.
The process of getting here was and is horrific.
Let’s start with this - this was not the plan. It was never the plan. Two weeks ago, Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt was lauding the importance of Maye gaining experience by sitting and watching vs playing. I don’t think two weeks of practice reps (where he was getting roughly 30% of the game reps) all of a sudden changed Van Pelt’s mind.
From all indications, the team had always targeted November as the breakout date for Maye. Totally makes sense - he oozes raw talent but would need time to develop his skills. Remember that people pointed out how few snaps he actually took under center at North Carolina during the run-up to the NFL Draft.
If Maye was being rushed into the lineup because of injury, I’d get it. But he’s not - he’s playing Sunday because of the putrid state of the Patriots. They’re 1-4 and borderline unwatchable. There were empty seats all over the place at Gillette last week against the Dolphins. The team has a spotlight, international game next week and you get the sense that ownership did not want to export a Jacoby Brissett-led offense over to London. Being embarrassed by your current QB is not a good reason to jam the No. 3 pick into the lineup.
Speaking of ownership, the leaking of the announcement reeks of their involvement.
“I know for a fact that he (HC Jerod Mayo) wanted to tell the team on Wednesday,” said Scott Zolak on Thursday’s Zolak and Bertrand. Remember how important it was for Mayo to tell the team about Brissett being named the starter before he told the media?
Instead, two national guys in Adam Schefter and Ian Rapaport get the news at the same time on Tuesday. I’m sure that was just a coincidence. And I’m sure the team was really upset that QB news overshadowed the other headline that one of their team captains, Jabrill Peppers, allegedly “shoved his girlfriend’s head into the wall and choked her.”
On the field, the opponent Sunday is about the worst team to debut a raw, rookie QB against. The Houston Texans are 4th in the NFL in QB pressure rate. They held Josh Allen to a measly 9 for 30 last week. They sacked Caleb Williams SEVEN times back in Week 2. Both the Dolphins last week and the Jags in Week 7 offered much better spots for Maye if you were going to audible from the November plan.
I mentioned him a few weeks ago, but fellow Substack author and Establish the Run contributor Brandon Thorn specializes in analyzing offensive and defensive line play.
This week, he ranked the Texans DL as #1 in the NFL. He has the Pats’ OL as dead-last at #32. He calls this “one of the biggest mismatches so far this season.”
How can this be the best spot to debut Maye?
It isn’t. It’s either the head coach or ownership (or both) playing a hail mary of sorts with their rookie QB.
The best spot was to hold off until November, as planned. Or maybe go and get some OL help at the trade deadline and make things easier on the kid. This is a franchise that failed miserably in making life easy on former quarterback Mac Jones. I had hoped the new regime had learned their lesson and would do better by Drake Maye. This whole process points to that not being the case. We’ll see.
There has been an air of dysfunction lingering over this team ever since Eliot Wolf bragged about how different the post-Belichick Era regime would be in New England. It almost feels as if now the team is using their rookie quarterback to fix all of its problems.
I’ll be rooting for Maye to prove me wrong on Sunday. I hope he goes for 300 yards and 5 TDs. As Patriots fans, we should all be rooting for that.
But that should not overshadow how bad the team - the coach, the OC, the GM, and the owners - botched the rollout and the supposed ‘plan’ for their No. 3 overall pick.
Meanwhile, we have summer radio ratings in Boston. The NFL Picks were💵💵💵 last week - we’ll try for another 3-0 run in Week 6.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
Join Mut Live at Mohegan Sun!
Get real-time analysis and expert predictions from Mut, Eytan Shander, and special guests live from the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook.
Be there in-person, stream it on the OddsShopper YouTube page, or listen on your favorite podcast app.
On the summer sports radio ratings in Boston…
Full disclosure - I’m a week late with this.
I was trying to get some added context to the numbers and decided to wait until this week to react to the third of the four 2024 Boston Nielsen ratings books.
98.5 The Sports Hub (#1) continues to bully WEEI (#9) in the all-important Men25-54 demo. A dominant Sports Hub win. Again.
This book covers June 20 to September 11 and it’s worth noting that WEEI debuted new shows in the midday (Jones & Keefe) and afternoon drive (WEEI Afternoon Show) on August 26th and August 27th, respectively.
Those two shows saw slight increases (Jones & Keefe saw more of a bump) in the final month of the summer book (August 15-September 11), but were still dominated by their Hub counterparts.
If WEEI has any shot of gaining back respectability in their 1 vs. 1 against The Hub, they HAVE to stop losing listeners from The Greg Hill Show to the midday show. Over the last 2-3 books, they lost about 80% of that audience, which seems impossible. Jones & Keefe cutting that drop to even, like 60%, would be a win: it’s a big fall book for them.
As far as afternoon drive, I’ve written and believe WEEI knows that the current show is a placeholder and not a long-term answer: they just have no idea what to do after missing out on other options, including the Globe’s (and 98.5 The Sports Hub’s) Chris Gasper.
A good run for Greg’s show in the AM, for sure, but for all the talk from social media (and a few friends who listen) that Toucher and Hardy is not as good a show as Toucher and Rich - they won the book again - and in a pretty comfortable fashion.
Half of that latter show is probably the biggest story of the summer.
Classic Rock WZLX surprised many people by hiring Rich Shertenlieb and going all-talk in morning drive while keeping the rest of the station classic rock. It sparked the idea of a potential third all-sports station in Boston: I still believe there are executives at parent company iHeartMedia who viewed Rich’s show as a test of sorts for that eventual move.
After just a few months, forget sports talk or talk in general - it seems much more likely that WZLX could jettison Rich and return to all music in the mornings.
The Rich Shertenlieb Show drew a 1.8 in the summer book, good for 14th in the market Men25-54. That’s down from the 3.7 rating that Shertenlieb and the former morning show (featuring Pete McKenzie & Heather Ford) pulled in the spring
The show debuted back on May 19 as a talk show focused on sports, no music. Highlighted co-host Charlotte Wilder made just one appearance on the show and was never mentioned again. Three months later right before Labor Day, the show started playing 4x songs per hour, something WZLX Program Director Chris Tyler confirmed to MutStack.com at the time would continue going forward. And something the Boston Globe says Rich objected to.
If you listen to the show you already know this because, to my ears, Rich ends up talking over the end of almost every song that’s played. It sounds like his own passive-aggressive shot at management for adding the music to his show.
The sense I get from people around the show the last few weeks is hope that eventually, they won’t be playing music anymore. At all. Of course from the outside, the addition of the music was a sign that the talk format might eventually be scrapped altogether.
One radio insider told me via text, “ZLX is missing that one show that’s most important because the Rich experiment (even now w/ music) is failing miserably while the rest of the station thrives. You can’t mix sports and music. Either go all sports or all music or you just piss off each crowd.”
It’s probably a coin flip as to what the show will sound like a year from now - but hard to imagine it will be talk plus music.
My guess is they’ll give Rich one more run of just talk to start the New Year. Or they could look at how well the rest of the station is elsewhere (as the Insider noted, solid 8.1 with Men25-54 even with Rich’s 1.8) and return to music full-time in 2025. The next few months will likely dictate the eventual direction.
But the dream of a third all-sports station? ☠️☠️☠️… at least with WZLX as that third station.
And that might be the biggest headline from the summer ratings in Boston.
On the trailer for the Netflix 2004 Red Sox documentary…
When Red Sox baseball mattered.
Really mattered.
This thing looks awesome.
In particular, I’m thrilled to see Curt Schilling involved. He’s been cast aside by the team and fans because they don’t like his politics. Or that mean meme he had about journalists 🙄🙄🙄. Or because his video game business failed in Rhode Island. Or most recently, when he revealed publicly that Tim Wakefield was battling cancer, something Schilling said back in March “he’ll forever regret.”
That was a bad look from Schilling, but people make mistakes. He was one of the main reasons the team won in 2004 and because of shit off the field, he’s become a pariah locally and nationally. He should have been a lock for the Hall of Fame as the best postseason pitcher of his generation. I don’t believe the reasons he’s not in have anything to do with baseball, which is sad.
I’m glad he’s part of the doc. I can’t wait to watch. But the trailer is a reminder of just how far baseball has fallen in Boston.
On the rest of your media and sports betting notes…
…Technical difficulties ✅. Some awkward moments ✅. A Thursday Night Football Winner. ✅. A $100 heads-up bet for charity ✅. If you missed Week 6 of Sportsbook Live from Mohegan Sun, you can watch it here and get ready for a big weekend of football. Best Bets are in the last 15 minutes or so.
…Making the drive to Mohegan Sun on Thursday afternoon, I was absolutely FLOORED by the opening segment of the WEEI Afternoon Show featuring Christian Arcand and Andy Hart. Twenty-two (22!!!!!) minutes of Bruins talk to open their show. The only story that matters in Boston right now is Drake Maye and the Patriots. Sure, they were on location for the B’s home opener, but a full segment of Bruins to open the show??? There was no other show in the United States that opened its sports show with 20+ minutes of local hockey talk on Thursday. Stunning.
…Let me say loud and clear, I’m a NYRA guy. About 85% of my horse racing play is on NYRA races. It’s my home track, thanks to the lack of live racing in New England.
That being said, the Keeneland Race Course product and presentation have quite frankly blown NYRA out of the water this fall. Better camera angles for sure. Great use of talent leading into and out of the race, led by Scott Hazelton, who does a few quick hits right up to the race. Then, right after the race, he does a quick highlight of the stretch drive with his own commentary.
Track announcer Kurt Becker is excellent calling the races, but his communication with bettors about issues at the gate, and what’s going on…it’s the best I’ve ever heard from an announcer. On top of all, the quality of racing has been A+. A superior product and presentation to NY’s fall racing in almost every way.
…The lone negative of the Keeneland meet has been the CAW (Computer Assisted Wagering) teams dominating the pools. They pumped in about $800k of the $2 million played into the Pick 5 on Wednesday and did it as the horses were loading into the gate. That’s dumb. I have been harping on it for over a year, but the CAW play is making it harder and harder to commit to really betting on horses. They are pushing players away by allowing the CAWs so many advantages and I’m willing to bet the year-to-year handle number in the US will be a disaster.
On our Week 6 NFL Picks - Presented by Sharp Hunter
Week 5: 3-0✅⭐🤑💰💵… and all the other emojis you’re supposed to use when you win your public sports bets
Season Record: 9-6
Our sponsor Sharp Hunter shows you where the actual sharp money is going by aggregating the best picks from sharp bettors, giving you access to winning insights and trends. That does not mean every bet with a Sharp Score always wins, but I love knowing who the informed gamblers are betting on... even if I want to bet against them.
Sharp Hunter is offering a free 7-day trial - perfect timing with the NFL, CFB, and MLB Playoffs all in action.
They offer three-day, monthly, and annual subscriptions after that. Perfect for the football season - and the baseball playoff push and post-season. Get started for free right here ➡️➡️➡️ Sharp Hunter.
The Side
Broncos +3 vs. Chargers (-115, DK)
Well, this is a first: in two years of doing these MutStack.com NFL Picks, I have never bet on the same team in back-to-back weeks. But after the Broncos were an easy winner a week ago, I think they’re worth a play here again as one of NINE home dogs in Week 6. The Broncos feel like a team NO ONE wants to bet on this season and the Chargers might seem like a sexier play. But on paper, these two are very similar -
Total DVOA: Denver 16, LAC 17
Defensive DVOA: Denver 4, LAC 2
Offensive DVOA: Denver 25, LAC 24
I guess I’m supposed to be scared of Justin Herbert. I’m not. Big special teams edge for DEN, #2 DVOA vs. #24 for DEN. Betting on Bo Nix is scary, but the Broncos’ defense might be elite.
Good trends: Sean Payton as a dog: 56-36-2 ATS - 4th best among coaches with 30 games dating back to 1990 (61%) per Action Network. Home divisional dogs 81-71-3 ATS recently.
Two similar teams in a projected low-scoring, divisional game…I’m betting the dog even if I bet on them last week.
The Total
Saints vs. Bucs UNDER 41.5 (-110, DK)
I was ready to bet an over. I wanted to tell you why it’s a good week to bet on the CHI/JAX OVER, but there are some high winds forecasted there so we’ll wait on that one and probably get a better number because people will overreact and start betting the under.
That leaves me with Bucs vs. Saints. Two slow teams - Tampa is 31st in FTN’s sec/snap metric and the Saints are 27th - both slow. Both teams are bottom-nine in no-huddle percentage. The New Orleans defense is 8th against the pass DVOA and while the Bucs are 20th, they’ll face a rookie making his first start in Spencer Rattler. Neither team is in the Top 10 when it comes to big offensive plays this season per Marcus Mosher. Unders in games with a home dog had hit at 60% the last four seasons. And it’s a divisional game. UNDER.
The PropDemario Douglas UNDER 43.5 REC YARDS (-110, FD)
Dalton Schultz OVER 30.5 REC YARDS (-110, MGM)
No Nico Collins for HOU. Patriots are 28th in DVOA in defending tight ends. Have allowed the 7th-most yards to the position this season. No Peppers for the Pats and Schultz has cleared this number the last two weeks. Don’t love overs but this one fits. Will also be interested in Antonio Gibson stuff when Stevenson is ruled out later Friday.
And with that, we have for sure said it all.
Changed some fonts and formatting this week, let me know what you think in the comments. Or just tell me how much I stink.
Good luck with all your Columbus Day weekend bets. And thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
WEEI is really trying to be the hockey alternative network. Someone should tell them big scores are normal in Oct/Nov. Going to be an interesting winter at that station.
Excellent four pack!