Friday Four-Pack 10.24.25

A sports betting shocker in the NBA. My likely unpopular opinion on the Celtics. A big week for horseplayers. NFL Picks, sports radio drama and more.

Oct 24, 2025

Editor’s Note from Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy

No note from the boss this week. Fox Big Noon Kickoff is in Bloomington for UCLA / Indiana, Saturday at 10 AM. My college football team, the UConn Huskies, trounced Boston College last weekend, becoming the unofficial 2025 New England College Football champs. I don’t think that will make the Fox show, but I felt like it was important to mention here.

I don’t usually start with the big headline of the week here in the Four-Pack, but today it seems appropriate.

Thursday was a massive day in sports and sports betting. NBA players and coaches, the feds, fixed poker games; there’s a lot to pick through, including some unsurprisingly terrible takes.

Current NBA player Terry Rozier, current NBA coach and Hall of Famer Chanucy Billups, and former NBA player Damon Jones were all arrested as part of a massive gambling roundup by federal authorities on Thursday. Rozier is accused of taking himself out of NBA games with fake injuries to ensure his player props hit the UNDER. Jones is charged with leaking injury info on the NBA’s biggest name to help gamblers make bets. And Billups? Well, he’s linked to fixed poker games and, I believe, the sports betting drama.

This commentary from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst will serve as a nice jumping-off point for this discussion. He said this on Thursday afternoon. I bolded a few things myself, but the whole thing is pretty important.

And I just want to point something out. The sports books caught the irregular irregular betting on Terry Rozier the day it happened, the morning it happened when all of a sudden there was hundreds of thousands of dollars coming in on Terry Rozier unders for a relatively meaningless game in November, I’m sorry, in uh in uh in March involving the Charlotte Hornets. The sports books caught it. They told the NBA right away.
And guess what? The NBA Rozier didn’t play the rest of the season and he had faked the injury. So, it wasn’t because of the injury. The NBA pulled him. They pulled Jontay Porter, too. They they flagged Porter and pulled Jontay Porter. The NBA’s measures, their, you know, their compliant, you know, their their protection measures, the sports books protection measures triggered this. They caught it.
Um the issue, I think, is you know, Jontay Porter, they caught convicted and tossed him out of the league within weeks. Rozier didn’t. And this in in this investigation and I don’t know if Terry Rozier is guilty. The NBA obviously didn’t feel that he was. They wouldn’t have let him play.
But this indictment implies that there was a swath of conspirators. There was like his cousin, his cousin’s friend. I mean like all the way down to like low-level guys who won money on this bet and then immediately bet on other games and lost all the money and had to tell other people, “Man, I lost the money. I’ll have to get it to you.” Like like really low-level people who were betting hundreds of dollars on this game. In addition, people were betting tens of thousands.
So my point about saying that is that there was a wide swath of people who were benefiting from this inside information on Rozier according to the feds and that the NBA either didn’t discover that or knew about that and cleared him. They’re going to have to answer for.

The people who have an agenda against sports betting or believe it’s inherently bad, well, they were probably salivating at the headlines Thursday. NBA, betting scandal, corruption…woohoo! A chance to get on my social media high horse and tell people how great I am because I don’t like sports betting, and see, it’s so bad!!!!

But here’s the reality—it was legal sports betting that first alerted the NBA to the abnormal betting activity around Rozier back in 2023, and went directly to the NBA to report it. It was the NBA that let Rozier play for the next year-plus before his arrest on Thursday.

The NBA has a lot of questions to answer, but I view Thursday’s news as a big win for legalized sports betting and the oversight that tracks things like $200,000 in under bets on a random Terry Rozier game. Without the legal markets, there would be a lot more shady stuff like this.

Some other assorted thoughts on a story that will make a fascinating movie someday -

🏀 Seriously, why did the NBA not ban Rozier?
🏀 Chauncy Billups…not awesome. He allegedly helped convince poker players to play in a rigged game. We’re talking “…rigged through sophisticated cheating technology, such as altered card shuffling machines and an “X-ray” device that could read cards placed face down. Prosecutors say that defendants also used a poker chip tray analyzer, card markers and special contact lenses or eyeglasses.”
🏀 Billups was initially linked to JUST the poker games, but there’s evidence that he also alerted gamblers to games his team (that he coached) would be tanking, and those gamblers were able to get bets in before those players were listed as inactive. His name is not listed in the full indictment, but there is a “Co-Conspirator #8” that fits the bio of Billups.
🏀 There is also this game from last March, where the Billups-coached Trail Blazers fouled for no reason, giving the Celtics two free throws and the cover. 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Joe Murray called this out the night of the game as being, as he calls it, #smelly. This didn’t look good in March, and it seems much worse now, with Billups looking way too active on the sideline with his team down eight points and under 10 seconds to play. Almost like he was invested in what the final score of the game would be…
🏀 Damon Jones reportedly told some gamblers about games where LeBron James would not play so that they could bet against the Lakers. LeBron is not involved in the gambling probe… yet. But he’s linked to it, and that’s a big deal in itself.

For a league that was still dealing with the stigma of cheating and Tim Donaghy, they should have thoroughly vetted the Rozier stuff. Instead, it looks like they tried to sweep it under the rug. Very, very dumb. But I’m glad the cheaters got caught.

There could be much more to this story. It might get much worse for the NBA; we’ll see. But remember, there is probably no chance the cheaters ever get caught, without the guardrails of legalized sports betting.

There were two especially TERRIBLE takes off this story, which you’ll find below in the MutStack notes.

Meanwhile, I have an unpopular Celtics take. It was a big week for horseplayers. A Boston sports radio host mocks his competition. Plus NFL Week 8 Picks and much more.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

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Also, free, like always.

On a potentially very unpopular opinion about the 2025-2026 Celtics…

More than almost anything else in sports, I want to see Jayson Tatum back at 100%.

It feels like all the science says for that to happen, he should take the entire season off and focus on coming back Opening Night 2026 after rupturing his Achilles just five and a half months ago.

Tatum is ultra competitive and, by all accounts, will try to come back later this season.

If the Celtics are in the mix for a playoff spot, my guess is he’ll try even harder to push himself and come back to help the team—he’s just that competitive. That might increase his risk of an Achilles setback.

If they’re not very good and don’t look like a NBA Title contender, that might naturally force Tatum to slow down and reset his timetable for coming back and be more conservative.

If the team is awful, there’s a scenario where they get a Lottery pick in next year’s NBA Draft. Then, presumably, a talented player is added to the roster when Tatum returns healthy in 2026.

So what I’m saying is that I’ll be okay if this ends up being a sneaky tank year for the Celtics.

There, I said it out loud.

I’m not rooting for that…yet. But if they get off to a dreadful start and fail to close out games like they did Wednesday against the 76ers, yeah, I might start yelling about a full tank job here every Friday. But right now, yeah, I’m hoping they play competitive, entertaining games.

Do I have faith that Jaylen Brown can lead this team and be a legit No. 1 player on his own? I do not. Am I confident that Joe Mazzulla will be able to coach up this group, potentially changing the way they’ve played under him as he accounts for the absence of his best player? Again, no.

Would I sign for them missing the playoffs if it guaranteed a healthy Tatum and a trip into the Lottery for one season? You bet I would.

My dad LOVES the Celtics, and he’ll call me about this take later today, but I’m a realist. The team’s only chance to win its next NBA Title is with a healthy Jayson Tatum as their best player. And it stands to reason that if he sits out the entire season, he’ll be in a better position to be 100% when he returns. Being bad this year would increase the chances he does just that.

If writing this in a weekly newsletter makes me a bad fan, then so be it. But deep down, you know I’m right.

On a big week for horseplayers…

For longtime readers of MutStack, you’re by now all too familiar with Computer Assisted Wagering - I’ve written about it extensively for the last two and a half years. And I write about…and talk about it…and text friends about it…and borderline obsess about it…. because they have sucked the joy out of something I love.

A quick look at my records shows that my handle is down at Keeneland 73% from 2024 to 2025. That’s because Keeneland has let the CAWs run wild, and you get crap like this. I will not be betting their product closing weekend.

But for horse racing, it doesn’t matter if I bet or not. But it sure does matter if my boss bets.

This post from Dave has over 1.1M views. There are tracks in America that won’t reach 1 million views across all their posts this year. He is America’s most popular horse player.

And once Dave posted about the scourge that are the CAWs on Friday, the floodgates opened.

Andy is right. Even on Monday morning, the #2 story on X.com sports was Dave vs. CAWs. But in places that cover the industry daily - The Daily Racing Form, popular horse racing podcasts, racing websites - crickets. I’d guess for two reasons. 1. They get a lot of their ad revenue from racing and race tracks, and don’t want to risk that revenue by promoting Dave’s take on this. 2. They don’t like Dave and Barstool.

Racing fans (and media) like to complain about the lack of coverage and respect for the sport. But then, when someone like Dave or Mike Reople gets involved, they all of a sudden don’t want the coverage. Many in the racing media, execs, fans - they’re what an old Nashua Telegraph columnist called CAVE People - Citizens. Against. Virtually. Everything. They’ll complain about the sport, but then also complain when Dave tries to make it better by voicing his opinion about the uneven playing field between human bettors and the CAW groups.

Industry lobbyist Damon Thayer posted this weekend that “He’s hearing from some of my former colleagues in the Kentucky General Assembly that if the tracks don’t take steps to self-regulate CAWs, legislation may be filed in #kyga26 dealing with it.”

I’m hearing similar things, that lawmakers in multiple states are looking hard at this. I hope it doesn’t come to that. I hope that these tracks acknowledge how greedy they're being by giving the CAWs such an advantage and level the playing field for 2026.

Next week at Del Mar is racing’s premier event, The Breeders’ Cup. The #1 topic among the racing elite and media will be the racing. But a close #2 will be Dave’s pushback against the industry and the CAWs, and how they’ll respond.

That’s a good thing for us horseplayers.

On your Week 8 MutStack NFL Picks…

Week 6 Results: 1-2 | ATD Chris Olave ✅ | ML Dog Dallas ✅
On the Season: 9-12 | ATD bets 2 for 7 | ML Dog 1 for 1

Mixed bag. There were just too many people on the Chargers by the end of the week. Nice week for ATD and ML Dog - Dallas went off as the favorite but was +113 or so here on Friday morning. Onto Week 8!

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning.

The Side
SAINTS +4.5 VS BUCS (-112)
Just too many injuries for Tampa to lay this many points. Baker was terrible on Monday Night and is now back on the road vs. a divisional opponent. Baker won’t have Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. Rookie star WR Emeka Egbuka is not 100%. All year, Tampa has played close games, as evidenced by a 5-2 record and a -1 point differential. This should be an excellent spot for Chris Olave, facing a Bucs D that has allowed 25 plays of 20+ yards in the passing games. Rashid Shaheed (a player the Pats should try and trade for) could also be in for a big day. Baker is just 7-14 ATS in games as a favorite against a divisional opponent. Hold your nose and take the Saints plus.

The Total
FALCONS VS. DOLPHINS U44.5 (-105)
There's a chance Atlanta rolls here, and this thing goes way over. BUT—

ATL - 9th slowest team sec/snap neutral pace situations
MIA - 14th slowest team sec/snap neutral pace situation

The Falcons run the ball 60% of the time with a lead of 6+ points, and I expect they’ll lead here at home. The Dolphins’ coaching staff has hinted at a QB change, which could also slow down the offense. Where I look, I’m seeing the sharp money come in on the under in this game, and the total is already down a few points this week on that action: ugly game but an under play for me.

The Prop
DANIEL JONES O12.5 RUSH YARDS (-108)
Jones went for 26 when these teams met early in the season, and the Titans have allowed the 6th-most rush attempts to opposing QBs. Maybe watching Drake Maye just go 8/62 is causing some recency bias here, but this number seems way too low.

The ATD
REMINDER - Sunday is National Tight End Day. Last year, FIFTEEN tight ends scored on this ‘holiday.’

The Bengals and Jets have allowed the most and second-most TDs to opposing TEs this season. I’ll be betting the TEs in the game for TDs, but b/c of the Jets’ QB situation, we don’t have odds yet on Mason Taylor or Noah Fant or Drew Sample or Jeremy Ruckert. Will update here once they’re live.

The ML Dog Mut Says is Barking
STEELERS. (+136) Classic spot to back Mike Tomlin’s team off a bad loss, extended rest, and now a home dog. He’s an incredible 22-7-3 ATS as a home dog. Week 5 and beyond, he’s 16-7 SU!

I’ll post any additional plays on Sunday on X.com.

On your Weekly Mutstack Notes…

“Anybody that has been around him. Anybody that has talked to him. Anybody that has seen his reactions from the sports leagues and the positions that people have taken, they are not surprised at what’s going on today,” Smith continued. “It’s a statement and it’s a warning that more is coming. And that’s what they’re saying here. I’m just telling you, it’s as serious as it gets. This ain’t the platform for me to get into it the way I’m going to get into it. But I’ve been saying, he’s coming. He’s coming.”

🙄 The dumbest take on the NBA betting scandal came from Stephen A. Smith. The ‘him’ he’s referring to above is President Donald Trump. The investigation into Rozier and Co. began no later than 2022, well before Trump was elected to a second term last fall. But that didn’t stop Smith from spewing this stupidity on ESPN, a network that claims to be apolitical and has told its anchors to “stick to sports.” Smith went on an even wilder rant on his podcast late Thursday, saying Trump was coming after sports, including the WNBA.

😂 Here is the second-dumbest take. Player props are, essentially, single-serving fantasy football. They’re not going anywhere and should not be illegal. Because once they are, they’ll take place in the unregulated markets. Are they going to ban fantasy football, too, Mike? LOL.

⛳ For those who could not make it to Granite Links last week, the full video of Riggs v. Kirk is now on YouTube. Great job by the Fore Play team to turn it around in less than a week. Came out excellent, runtime 72 minutes, perfect for a viewing this weekend. The guy who did the first tee intros was terrible, but the production otherwise was excellent.

🎙️ We don’t get this often in Boston sports radio, but Marc Bertrand took an open shot at WEEI and their ratings on Thursday. It might be tied to the fact that there are folks at WEEI blaming their own streaming and its coding (nerd stuff) for the terrible summer book they had. Which is something losers say. Never hear any complaints about streaming when you’re winning. More of this, please, Marc. And please, Jones, Keefe, Greg - fire back at Marc. What do you have to lose at this point?

🏈 0-3 on the TNF Plays. When they overturned the Minnesota Pick 6 early, I knew I was cooked. Pain.

⚾ I don’t care they play in Canada, I’m rooting for (and betting on) the Toronto Blue Jays in the World Series. It’s not fun to root for the Dodgers, and it’s always more fun to root for the underdog. If the Blue Jays win, the Red Sox ownership may feel like they have to spend this offseason since the World Series champs would be in their division. So yeah, go Blue Jays.

🏈 According to the NY Times NFL Playoff Predictor, the Colts have the highest % chance of making the playoffs (96%) through seven weeks of the season. Guess which team is No. 2, at 93%? Your New England Patriots.

🏇🏻 Off the win for Go Go Greys Stables and Wondergirl Carly on Monday, Dave mentioned a potential stakes race at Laurel for her next start. There are three listed for November, so there will be options.

🏇🏻 We can officially say it now - It’s Breeders’ Cup Week. I plan to write up all 14 Breeders’ Cup races, make a short video for each race on X.com, and react live on social media, Barstool, MutStack—wherever Dave wants me—as the racing unfolds next week.

Unless he says otherwise, I’m going to be settled in at home (in the basement office) with the races, the DRF, my laptop, and phone next Friday and Saturday, squarely focused on horse racing.

I get it - it’s a big college football weekend. And I know it’s Halloween. I don’t care. It’s the best two days of horse betting of the year, and that will be my entire focus.

Hopefully, I’ll have a more concrete schedule for you next Monday, but trust me, you’ll be sick of my racing coverage by next Sunday morning.

And with that, we have indeed said it all.

Good luck with all the bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

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