Friday Four-Pack 10.31.25
Drake Maye's Year Two Leap. Breaking down the biggest race of Breeders' Cup Weekend. NFL Picks. A new Boston Globe TV show. 676767676767676767676767
Editor’s Note from Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy
This is a huge weekend for Mut and I. It’s Breeders’ Cup Weekend. All horse players favorite weekend of the year. I almost invited Mut to come to Ohio and bet the horses all weekend, but then I heard he big dogged Hogdale by not responding to a text asking to be part of a Red Sox Podcast. Mut needs to be humbled so I didn’t invite him. There is no I in Team here at Barstool. Hopefully, it’s a learning lesson for Mut, and he can get the invite next year.
Note from MutStack.com Founder, Mut
Fair. It was a missed communication on my part, 100%. Had a great text chat with Hogdale last night. He has some great ideas, and I’m pumped to be a part of it. Especially…well, I’ll save that for down the road.
Me? I’m focused forward on what’s ahead in Red Sox podcasting and on Friday and Saturday at Del Mar. Dave is right - best weekend of the year. That’s what I’ll be locked in on, and definitely not the fact that I cost myself a fantastic chance to bet these great races all weekend with Dave and Elio. Positive. Vibes. Only.
If you’re a parent of teenagers … really, kids of any age at this point…I don’t have to tell you this. But be prepared for a Halloween full of kids just running around and yelling “SIX-SEVNNNNNNN”
What does it mean? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. Seriously, nothing. But kids are gonna Brainrot no matter what, so “SIX-SEVNNNNNNN” it is, in 2025.
If you’re handing out candy on Friday night and want to seem cool, you can tell the kids to say “Take one or two…but not six or seven,” and you’ll likely be bombarded with a “SIX-SEVNNNNNNN” chorus back in your face. At least among my kids and the crew they fraternize with.
The “SIX-SEVNNNNNNNING” is so bad that, apparently, the elementary school principal in our town went on the intercom and BANNED kids from saying it outside of math class. My moles tell me that didn’t work, and it’s still “SIX-SEVNNNNNNN” all day. Reportedly.
College kids are also in on this.
When this was the first quarter score for BC/UConn a few weeks ago, 20 college kids around us…you guessed it, “SIX-SEVNNNNNNNING.” My boys thought that was hilarious.
At some point, it will die out. There is also “FOUR-ONEEEEEEEEEE” but that’s becoming rarer. Maybe it’s not as cool?
So yeah, now you’re informed—#67. Happy Halloween. Happy Breeders’ Cup Weekend.
Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels. The $7 million BC Classic. NFL Picks. Much more.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
If you subscribe, one less kid will yell “SIX-SEVNNNNNNN” this weekend.
Also, it’s free, as always. 🎃
On the Drake Maye Year Two Leap…
“In the NFL, EPA stands for Expected Points Added, a statistical measure that quantifies the impact of each play on a team’s potential to score. It is calculated by subtracting the expected points (EP) of the previous situation from the expected points after the play has occurred.”
That’s the nerdy definition of EPA. In simple terms, the EPA chart above indicates that no quarterback in the NFL since 1999 (when they started tracking Air Yards) has had a greater impact on their team when throwing the ball downfield than Drake Maye has had this season. 👀
Now the 5-1 3rd choice in the MVP odds according to DraftKings, Maye has had a spectacular season. On Thursday’s Unnamed Show, Kirk and Dave asked the question out loud, basically, “How has he done it?” Because he showed flashes last year, but no one would have taken you seriously if you said back in August, he’d be behind only Mahomes and Allen in the MVP Odds on Halloween.
Here’s how it happened, according to me.
🏈 Josh McDaniels. I never, ever, ever got the hate with Josh. Like every other offensive coordinator, you can get annoyed with his play-calling. But as far as working with and developing quarterbacks, getting the best out of them? What more does he have to do to prove himself? He worked at a high level with Brady and drew praise from The Goat. He got Jimmy G ready to play in a pinch and helped develop him into an NFL starter. Then Jimmy G goes down, and he tailors the game plan for Jacoby Brissett, another player with a long NFL career who started learning from Josh. He helped guide Rookie Mac Jones as the team made the playoffs. Like, seriously, WHAT MORE DOES HE HAVE TO PROVE TO YOU PEOPLE?? He’s not a head coach, got it. But less than a half season with Drake Maye and look at the results. There’s a narrative that The Krafts forced Josh on Mike Vrabel - good - they got that one right after the terrible Jerod Mayo hire. Josh has been awesome.
🏈 His Natural Talent. His comp coming out of college was always Josh Allen - an athletic, raw quarterback that might take some time to acclimate to the NFL, but once he did, he had a massive ceiling. It’s earlier than we thought, but we’re seeing it in Year 2. Many people who didn’t see it with Maye. Tom E. Curran suggested the team trade down. Merrill Hoge called Maye, “The kind of player that will get you fired.” I mean, last December, Nick Wright wanted the Pats to trade Maye for the #1 pick to grab Shedeur Sanders instead. Reading this back, I don't think I'm explaining this as well as I had hoped. He had more natural talent than most people even projected coming out of UNC, and we’re seeing that now.
🏈 The Schedule. 6, 13, 18, 20, 21, 22, 27, and 29 - That’s the current DVOA ranks of the defenses that Maye has faced. It’s not being a hater to say that he and the team have benefited GREATLY from the schedule. And guess what? It will continue; they have the third-easiest schedule of any team remaining in the NFL. They still get the Jets 2x, the Dolphins again, and the Bengals.
The team upgrading the talent around him (Diggs, Campbell) is also a factor. As is the impact of Mike Vrabel on the entire organization. If the Patriots grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, Maye is going to be the league’s MVP… in Year 2. And all of this helps explain how we got here.
On the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic…
It sucks.
It sucks because Sovereignty was the star of the show on Saturday, trying to close out his Horse of the Year season with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. And it sucks because whether you wanted to bet on him or against him, this race became a lot less fun to wager on. Now, you can’t single him AND you won’t get an oversized price on any of the other contenders with this guy out.
It sucks. Hope he comes back and races next year because between this and the skipped Preakness…he’s talented but also a bit of a “what if.” But we move on.
I decided against a traditional Breeders’ Cup Podcast this year. I’ll have a blog for both Friday and Saturday on the Barstool Blog. My Friday analysis can be found here. I plan to go live on Twitter/X.com about 20 minutes before each race, each day, for some handicapping and to take a few questions. Maybe it will suck, we’ll see.
If you do win this weekend, I hope you’ll consider donating some of your winnings to one of many great racing charitable foundations.
Like the PDJF. Or the TRF. Or Old Friends. Those are a few options, but there are many more good ones.
The biggest race of the weekend is still the Classic—some thoughts on the field below.
#1 Fierceness (5-2) - Inherits the role of favorite with the scratch of Sovereignty. Has been rock solid all year after finishing second in this race a year ago. Had major trouble from the rail in the 7-horse Pacific Classic and got stuck there again in a bigger field. Do we get the good Fierceness? If we do, he might dust these pretty easy. But that’s no guarantee. He’s a win candidate, but at 5-2, I’m not running to the windows to bet him on top.
#2 Baeza (10-1) - His Kentucky Derby run from Post #19 remains one of the better efforts by a three-year-old this year. Loved the confidence the connections showed shipping him to Parx and he looked a winner every step of the way. That field was not great, but he’s run fast, and the distance should be no problem. Seems like the “wiseguy” horse.
#3 Nevada Beach (20-1) - One fast race, and that was last time beating a field of six that included a horse in Full Serrano, who is better going shorter. Sure, it’s Baffert, but not for me, even at a price.
#4 Contrary Thinking (50-1)- This guy is entered as a ‘rabbit’ for his stablemate, Sierra Leone. His job is to go fast, ensure a hot pace, and set it up for last year’s winner of the Classic. You should not bet on him. In fact, he should be coupled with Sierra Leone in the betting if we’re being honest.
#5 Forever Young (7-2) - I actually think he’ll go off the second choice here, and for good reason. Ran big in this race last year as a three-year-old. The goal was always to come back here bigger and stronger, and based on reports from Del Mar, that’s the case. Can see him sitting just off the rabbit, along with Fierceness. Does that positional advantage give him the edge to finally beat Sierra Leone?
#6 Sovereignty
#7 Sierra Leone (7-2) - A son of the mighty Gun Runner, this guy is looking to make it back-to-back Classic wins. Last time out, he had to avoid early trouble and go around a fallen jockey - if not for that, I think he wins. Needs a pace to run at and should get it with his rabbit entered. Has never been off the board at this distance, and his fastest Beyer race came here at Del Mar. Part of what I would call The Big 3 in here (Fierceness & Forever Young included), and might be the best price of the three. It's a boring, logical choice, and if he’s 7-2, I’ll be betting.
#8 Mindframe (6-1) - Super-talented horse that seems better suited going a mile or a mile and a eighth. Beat Sierra Leone in the no-pace Foster, and I can’t see him getting that same scenario here. Lost all chance in the last race, I get it, but I still have my doubts. Would love him cutting back in the Cigar Mile on December 6th at Aqueduct.
#9 Journalism (5-1) - As I was writing up this race, my theme for this guy was, “Loaded with talent, but how and why does he turn the tables on main rival Sovereignty?” Well, now, he doesn’t have to. Likes Del Mar and has never been out of the exacta at the distance. Just too far back and unlike the rest of the racing fans on the Internet, I’m fine with the connections going to Jose Ortiz here. His fastest race came back in March, and he might be circling back to that effort Saturday. Should be closer today, and I think he has every shot at the exacta again at a fair price.
#10 Antiquarian (10-1) - Had a clear run last time as Sierra Leone had all that trouble early. Distance is no problem, and he’s been getting better with every race. But this is a more challenging field than the last time, and you lose Johnny V to Fierceness. Respect this guy and could see him getting a piece, but not in the Top 2 for me.
As I edit this Friday morning, here are my Top 4, in order.
Sierra Leone / Journalism / Forever Young / Fierceness
At 7-2, I’m betting Sierra Leone. He would be my ‘pick.’ If he’s 2-1? No thanks. I will use Journalism prominently in exactas and as my key horse in tris - I really think he’s sitting on a huge race. I have not started building multi-race bets, so I need to work that out.
It’s a strong classic…that does lose some luster with Sovereignty sidelined.
Final thoughts later Friday/early Saturday on the Barstool Blog, and I’ll edit that link in here once it’s live.
On your Week 9 MutStack NFL Picks…
Week 8 Results: 1-2 | ATD Mason Taylor ✅ | ATD Noah Fant, Steelers ML ❌
On the Season: 11-13 | ATD bets 3 for 8 | ML Dog 1 for 2
A very mediocre season for the MutStack NFL Picks rolls on. Odds from Friday morning at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Side
STEELERS +3 VS COLTS (-105). We got burned on this last week, but I’m going right back to Mike Tomlin as a home dog. The updated numbers per Action- Tomlin now 61-47 ATS as the coach of the Steelers, coming off a loss. He is 25-15 ATS as an underdog off an outright loss, including an insane 12-4 ATS as a home dog off a loss. Tomlin has been listed as a home underdog in 33 games as coach of the Steelers; he is 19-14 SU and 22-8-3 ATS as a home dog. These numbers, and the Colts being at the PEAK of their market, make this an auto-play for me.
The Total
LIONS VS. VIKINGS UNDER 48.5 (-115). These divisional rivals are two of the slowest teams in the league when you look at FTN’s sec/snap—the Lions are the 4th slowest and the Vikings clock in as the 10th slowest, in neutral pace situations. With the Vikings going back to unproven J.J. McCarthy, my guess is they’ll continue to play slow and run the ball. The Lions run the ball at the second-highest rate in those same neutral pace scenarios and come in with the #1 rated DVOA defense. The Minnesota D is in the top half against the run. A lot of stats, I know, but all of this seems to add up to a slugfest in Detroit. UNDER.
The Prop
JOSH ALLEN O7.5 RUSH ATTEMPTS (-141). I wrote this up on Tuesday, and it was -105, so it’s taking action. I’d play it up to 8.5. In five regular games against Kansas City, Allen has averaged over 10 rush attempts per game. Now, with all these teams doing their version of the Tush Push - in the case of the Bills, the Buffalo Snow Plow - there are carries built into the game plan for Allen. Happy to take an over here at -105.
The ATD
DRAKE MAYE +400. Looks like Rhamondre Stevenson will miss, which could lead to one of those easy naked-bootleg TDs for Maye around the goal line.
The ML Dog Mut Says is Barking
After STEELERS, BENGALS (+124)
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
📺 This week saw the debut of “The Boston Globe Sports Report” on NESN. The show - hosted by the very unlikeable Ben Volin - airs Mondays at 5:30 p.m. Having done a bunch of radio with Volin, I’ll say he’s a lovely guy off the air. But behind a mic or a keyboard? Yeah, very unlikeable.
The show had an open, an interview, a back-and-forth with Dan Shaughnessy, and a social media segment. It’s pretty innovative—if this were 2003. Ben and Dan did a particularly terrible segment on sports betting as part of their opening show.
I will hate-watch this show weekly, even if I’m the only viewer.
📺 I’m a dinosaur, I get it, but this is one of the reasons we have not cut the cord in our house. Imagine waking up today as a YouTube TV sub and seeing no ABC, ESPN, etc. It just so happens that ESPN recently launched ESPN Unlimited. The base cost for the streaming service is $29.99 per month or $299.99 per year. I’m sure this isn’t some ploy to get people to sign up for that, right??? Yikes. So if you have YouTube TV, you need this, too? What a racket.
🎙️ After a two-week Red Sox playoff bump, WEEI lost by 18, 20, and 16 points to 98.5 The Sports Hub in AM, MID, and PM Drive, respectively, based on the last weekly I saw. Drake Maye and the Patriots are one of the biggest stories in the NFL, and WEEI can’t break into the 3s in multiple day parts. Rough.
🏇🏻 The mainstream racing media FINALLY decided to write about the CAW issues in racing and how it affects ‘retail’ players. That’s what they’re calling us human bettors now, ‘retail’ players. The Breeders’ Cup is hoping that the pools will be so large this weekend that the CAWs won’t be an issue, but we’ll see.
🏒 Brad Marchand is an All-Time Human Being.
🍬 The 2025 MutStack No. 1 Halloween Candy is once again Peanut Butter Snickers—REMAINS criminally underrated. The rest of the Top 5, in no real order - traditional Reese’s Cup, Peanut M&Ms, Reese’s Take 5, and new to the list in 2025 - a frozen Kit Kat. The Seasonal Pumpkin Reese’s is tremendous and has an exceptional peanut butter-to-chocolate ratio. Butterfinger remains trash.
And with that, we have indeed said it all.
Have a great and safe Halloween Weekend. Good luck with all your Breeders’ Cup and football bets.
And thanks for reading.
Same here. However I did hit the DK $100,000 pick the Classic Winner promotion
Got some of my money back !
Mut- love the weekly newsletter. Your take on McDaniels is spot on. Congrats on Barstool