Friday Four-Pack 10.3.25

The Red Sox season is over. The Pats play a huge game Sunday night. A big day for my boss at Keeneland. NFL Week 5 Picks!

Editor’s Note from Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy

Sucks the Red Sox lost. Hopefully, I didn’t launch the Mut/Hogdale Curse. Another good performance from Mr. Thursday Night. More importantly, Mutt has asked me for a prediction on the debut of Miss Watermelon in the 10th at Keeneland. The horse can run. She will most likely be wildly overbet because it’s me, but she should make a good showing of herself.

Note from the creator of MutStack.com, Mike Mutnansky

More on Miss Watermelon below in the MutStack notes.

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I’m with Dave - sucks the Red Sox lost. Hopefully, Hogdale and I are not to blame.

As a consumer of Barstool for 20 years before becoming an employee a few weeks ago, it didn’t really hit me until I walked out of the New York offices late Thursday night, just how many hours of content I had watched from the same place where I was doing blogs and live streams for a couple of days. Barstool Rundowns, Surviving, Chris Klemmer Sleeps…good times.

Doing Kirk’s show for the last few years, he and his producers have always helped out with anything I needed. I found the Barstool NY office to be the same. Working from home in your basement, by yourself, you forget what it’s like to have co-workers who want to and are willing to help you.

On Wednesday, I wanted to paint my head like a baseball. Vibbs, someone I had just met, said, “Just get some paint, and I can do it.”

Nailed it. The parlay didn’t hit (Mac and Bourne COOKED), but Vibbs crushed the paint job.

The Barstool NY office was helpful in every way. I did get the sense that some people had no idea who I was or why I was there. But it was an energizing couple of days.

New York City is very dirty. And everything is expensive. But I’ll admit, I’m looking forward to returning to the office at some point. Maybe next time with less face and body paint. Or more. We’ll find out together.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox season is over. I’m getting some feelings on Pats/Bills. Miss Watermelon runs today, and we try to stay hot, again, with the NFL Week 5 picks.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

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The Red Sox lost. But we did go 2 for 3 on Thursday Night Football.

That means you need to subscribe. Also, free.

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On the Red Sox losing to the Yankees…

Tough, tough loss. Well, losses. Games 2, 3, and the series, obviously.

The Red Sox became the first team to win the opening game of a three-game Wild Card series and then ultimately fail to advance. Fun!

I wrote about the game immediately after the game on the Barstool Blog. I hope you’ll read it by clicking this link.

About six hours later, some lingering thoughts.

⚾ A bulk of the blame lands directly on the Red Sox offense. After being seventh in all of baseball in runs scored during the regular season, they were lifeless - really for all three games - in this series. Trevor Story was clutch. Yoshida hit. Bregman had that one double. The rest of the lineup - wooooooof. What a choke over three games in NY.

⚾ The biggest play of the series was Kyle Hudson not sending Nate Eaton in Game 2. Not sure I’ll get over that anytime soon. I don’t know if it should cost him his job, but I bet it will be discussed internally with the team.

⚾ Same for hitting coach Pete Fatse. He’s a UConn guy - and I’m not calling for his job - but I’m sure there’ll be discussions after the team didn’t hit this series.

⚾ If you celebrated the Devers trade, congrats. It would have been just awful to have him in your lineup in NY. Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks looked great in the series. Keep saying the team was better off without Devers, and keep being wrong.

⚾ If it helps land you Joe Ryan, I have zero problem trading Jarren Duran. Not just Ryan, any legit No. 2 pitcher behind Crochet.

⚾ Cam Schlittler was fantastic on Thursday. Just an all-time performance on the mound. Then he’s shooting his shot as a reply guy after the game with my old Mut at Night producer. Have a night, Cam! It’s going to be annoying to have a Walpole kid be the next Yankee Ace.

⚾ I know people are falling over backwards to give him credit, but I remain skeptical of Craig Breslow. More on this next week, but let's say Bregman walks and they don’t land a solid No. 2 pitcher? It could be a rough offseason.

⚾ To the haters in the chat saying Dad Bod…correct. A knee injury has limited cardio. Body reset starts Monday.

Overall, the 2025 Boston Red Sox had a successful season. But that doesn’t mean you’re not allowed to be annoyed about the way it ended for the next week or so.

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On the Pats and Bills Sunday Night…

Being on the road this week, I have no idea how Boston sports radio and Patriots fans are approaching this Sunday Night showdown with the Bills.

But I keep thinking about this.

When the Patriots hung with The Greatest Show on Turf on a Sunday night in November of 2001, it gave you some hope that the team had turned a corner under second-year quarterback Tom Brady.

I’m getting those same vibes this week.

Now, would the Pats keeping it close and say covering the current 8.5-point spread guarantee a Super Bowl run? Hell, no. But, it would suggest that the team has turned a corner and might be on the trajectory back to playoff football with a top-12ish quarterback.

I’m not willing to just gloss over the 42 unanswered points against the Panthers. Do they stink? Maybe. But they made the Panthers look like they stink, rather than let them hang around.

I took some shit for this on The Kirk Minihane Show Tuesday, but I thought Drake Maye played quarterback like a point guard on Sunday; he made some precise, short-yardage throws that looked like a good PG making a pass. I loved Josh McDaniels playing to his QB’s skill set. More of that Sunday night, Josh.

The Bills’ D is 21st overall DVOA and 30th(!!!) against the run. McDaniels has shown a willingess to run the ball, and if Remandre Stevenson can avoid just fumbling the ball to the other team, their offense can have success. With the Saints, Titans, and Browns up next…you win this game…6-2 is not crazy through eight weeks.

Even if they don’t win, I expect the Pats to keep it snug.

This is not a public push to bet the Patriots. Or suggest they’re a Super Bowl contender. I just think the people who are comparing this team and Mike Vrabel to last year and Jerod Mayo…well, they’re idiots. Respectfully.

And my guess is when the Pats keep it close or even win on Sunday night, they’ll start to realize how much better this team is under Vrabel and his coaching staff.

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On your MutStack Week 4 NFL Picks…

Week 4 Results: 2-1 | ATD Matthew Golden ❌
On the Season: 6-6 | ATD bets 1 for 4

Three straight 2-1 weeks to get us back to .500 on the season. Golden had some looks, including an endzone target at the end of OT, but Doubs catching 3TDS was tilting. Lines from DraftKings as of Friday morning.

The Side
SAINTS -1.5 VS GIANTS (-105)
This is a straight fade of Jaxson Dart without Malik Nabers. From Action Network, Nabers is responsible for 50.8% of the Giants air yards entering Week 5, 26% of their targets, over 30% of their receiving yards and 6 of the Giants’ 9 end zone targets. Add in the fact that QBs in their first two starts are 13-34 SU on the road in their last 48 starts, and you can paint a picture of this being a good spot to back the Saints laying less than a field goal.

The Saints kept it reasonable against the Bills after getting blown out by the Seahawks (No. 1 DVOA Team in the NFL). With rookie Dart and no Nabers, they can win this game at home on Sunday.

The Total
BROWNS AT VIKINGS (LONDON) UNDER 35.5 (-102)
I initially thought I’d end up on the Vikings here, but I can’t stomach the idea of laying points with Carson Wentz in a different country. Instead, let’s play the under on the lowest total of the week. The Browns (#2) and the Vikings (#8) are two of the NFL’s highest-rated DVOA defenses - and they get to face Wentz and rookie Dillon Gabriel. The Browns have to travel across the pond to face a Vikings team that has been there for two weeks now, having played in Ireland. The total keeps going down (was 36.5 on Thursday), and the sharps don’t seem to care. UNDER in an ugly Sunday morning game.

The Prop
MICHAEL CARTER UNDER 13.5 CARRIES (-105)
This is a bit of a gamble. The Cardinals have three backs to choose from on Sunday - Emari Demercado, Carter, and Bam Knight. I just watched Demercado get all the passing work last Thursday against the Seahawks, late in the game when the Cards were in pass mode. I believe the Cardinals will let Kyler Murray direct the offense, leading to plenty of Demercado, and not as much Carter. I’ll like this less on Sunday if Knight is inactive, so stay tuned. It’s also worth noting that Carter has cleared 14 carries ONCE since October of 2021.

The ATD
Elic Ayomanor +350
Has emerged as Cam Ward’s favorite target. In a game they’re trailing, he can find the box. Note WR Calvin Ridley looks unlikely for this game. Ayomanor in DFS, too.

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On your weekly MutStack Notes…

🏇🏻 Friday night (well, late afternoon) at around 5:48 PM, the first of the growing young horses in Dave’s Go Go Grey Stables will make her debut. It comes in Race 10 on Keeneland’s Opening Day. Her profile from DRF -

The daughter of Cairo Prince will be going long (a mile and a 16th) on the Keeneland turf. The dam won three of four starts on the turf, and Miss Watermelon has a sibling who tried the turf but was a winner on synthetic. Trainer Jonathan Thomas is not known to win with 2-year-olds debuting on the turf (5% over the last five years). Sire Cairo Prince has had some solid turf runners, including the talented My Boy Prince.

It looks like Miss Watermelon caught a tough field, which includes Market Chill, who had trouble in her first start for Chad Brown and ran second last time.

It being two-year-olds on the turf, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in picking Miss Watermelon or any other horse as a winner. See Dave’s note above on what he thinks.

But I am supremely confident that more people will watch and bet on this race because Dave is the owner. And there will be Barstool fans that go to Keeneland Friday to see Miss Watermelon - fans who might have stayed home otherwise. And as more Go Go Grey runners hit the track, it will continue to happen.

Safe trip for Miss Watermelon and all the runners in Race 10. I know myself and many others will be rooting hard for a winning debut.

🏇🏻 A bunch of people have asked me to do a video or a series on how to read a horse racing form, and or how to bet on horses. If you agree, comment below. Maybe I need to do a Horsecapping 101 Series?

⚾ Since Tony Mazz - a public radio host with over 150K followers - still has replies turned off, I’ll respond to this post-Game One Tweet here.

WHO WERE THE PEOPLE WHO SAID THE RED SOX MAKING THE PLAYOFFS DIDN’T REALLY MATTER THIS YEAR MAZZ???

What a terrible strawman comment - that no one can reply to. Also, turn your replies back on. I know his coworkers at The Sports Hub read this thing every week. Someone, please, tell him to allow replies.

🎙️ Not much radio this week with travel, but I did get a note that for September Week 3 - the week of the Pats’ opener - Felger and Mazz did a 12.3 (#1) while WEEI Afternoons did a 3.0 (11th).

In the mornings, Toucher and Hardy did a monster 17.5, with The Greg Hill Show coming in with a 4.3 (8th). Fred Toucher continues to do huge numbers with Rich.

🏀 Have my hands on Dan Hurley’s new book, Never Stop: Life, Leadership, and What It Takes to Be Great, and will review it here next week.

⚾ Shoutout Hogdale. Kid was doing streams in Iowa, calling Red Sox games on Twitch, Dave puts him on the big Barstool stage, and he crushed. Had a great time with him and can’t wait to see him calling the Pats game this weekend.

And with that, I believe we have said it all.

Thanks to everyone who watched the Sox/Yankees streams. Good luck with all your bets this weekend.

I liked NY, but I need to go home.

Thanks for reading