Friday Four-Pack 1.10.25
Patriots very sensitive to the fans feelings. Ben Johnson should be the next head coach. Felger to mornings? NFL Wild Card Picks!
It was not the reason Jerod Mayo was fired.
The legion of empty seats at Gillette Stadium just minutes before the team’s costly win against the Buffalo Bills was certainly embarrassing but by themselves, did not cost the first-year coach his job.
And of course, there was not just one reason Mayo received his walking papers 90 minutes after the game Sunday.
The defense sucked.
The team got worse as the season went on.
The coach reportedly decided to play cards with his players rather than watch film with his assistant coaches after a dreadful post-bye loss to the Cardinals.
The coach could not help but say dumb things to the media and on multiple occasions, had to walk back on Monday what he had just said on Sunday.
The fact the high water mark of the season came in a Week 1 win over a Bengals team that did not even qualify for the playoffs says it all.
But back to the fans. The late-season reaction from fans (and the media) was undoubtedly on the team’s radar. Robert Kraft was asked at his Monday press conference about how much the fan reaction played into the move to axe Mayo.
“Well, I’m the biggest fan, so I understand,” Kraft said. “Since the day we bought this team, I realized what a privilege it was and how lucky we were as a family, that this is the only business we're involved in where I see ourselves. We don't own this team. It's owned by the fans of this region. We're custodians of a very special asset of the community. That helps me try to make decisions that, if it was just personal, it would be different,” he added.
So just how sensitive were the Krafts and the organization to the fan’s reaction?
Asked on WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show about fans booing and chanting “Fire Mayo” Friday morning before the Bills game, linebacker Jhalani Tavai had some choice words for Patriots Nation.
"Everybody can say what they think we should be doing. In the long end, they're not qualified to do what Mayo is doing, or whatever the Pats are doing," the linebacker said. "The fans, I appreciate them at times, but sometimes they just have to know their place and just understand that it's a work in progress. Rome wasn't built in one day."
The Patriots - and ownership - HATED THAT. And they probably regretted the fact their head coach had built a culture where players felt empowered to say dumb things about the fanbase.
A source in the know told MutStack.com that after that Tavai interview Friday, Patriots Public Relations went so far as to reach out to Sports Radio WEEI and ask them to “stop making a big deal out of it.” The “it” in this case were Tavai’s clearly anti-fan comments: it was a major talker all day on Friday.
The way it was explained to me, the PR team went through management to have both the station’s radio shows and website “tone it down.”
In 17 years at WEEI, I don’t remember that happening. The late Larry Lucchino once expressed his opinion of some of my questions with his middle finger, but the interview continued.
Then you had this from the excellent deep dive on Mayo’s firing in the Boston Herald
Two days later, in the Patriots’ season finale, Tavai sat for the entire first quarter against Buffalo. Mayo declined to explain why post-game. A rumor spread inside the building that ownership had ordered Tavai to be benched for his comments that incited an already angry fan base.
👀👀👀
It’s clear that the team - led by their ownership - is as sensitive as ever to fan reaction after what has been a terrible calendar year.
The Belichick firing was handled poorly. ESPN reported that Robert Kraft was one of the reasons Belichick didn’t get the Atlanta Falcons job. Kraft was once again passed over for the Hall of Fame, months after (again) ESPN published a story saying the team made a hard push for his induction for years. The hand-picked successor to Belichick was such a failure he had to be fired after one season.
Hell, even this new coaching search post-Mayo is getting blasted. Again, from the Herald piece.
Multiple team sources disapproved of ownership's clear flouting of the Rooney Rule, disrespecting the process and declining to gather intel from external coaching candidates about how their organizations operate and their visions for how the Patriots could run.
“Wild,” one said. “Just wild.”
It’s hard to express just how far the Q-Rating has fallen for the team and ownership over the last five seasons. But being so sensitive to a player’s comments that you reach out to a media partner about “toning it down,” in addition to reportedly making sure the player was benched to start the game, shows you even they realize how bad it’s gotten in New England.
Were Tavai’s comments and the fallout the last straw for ownership when it came to Mayo? I don’t know. I don’t think so. But given how sensitive the team is to fan reaction, I would not completely rule it out.
Meanwhile, I want the next head coach to be a guy they’ll probably never hire…especially after this past season. A rough start for horse racing in 2025. And Wild Card NFL Picks for the people to tail or trash.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
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On how poorly the Patriots have handled the post-Belichick head coaching position…
Here’s a play from earlier this season. Lions and Packers. Tom Brady was on the call and had this to say about the play.
"Wait till you see this route. I've never seen a route like this," an entertained Brady said.
If the greatest quarterback/football player EVER is saying he’s seeing something he’s never seen before - I want THAT guy - the guy who drew it up.
I want Ben Johnson to be hired as the next head coach of the Patriots.
Johnson helped Jared Goff to an MVP-like season. The stats show him as second in the entire league in yards, completion % and EPA per play. And again, more importantly, had JARED GOFF in the MVP race. The NFL is done pretending that offense matters so I want the most innovative mind on offense.
Not happening. And is probably not even a real consideration - thanks to how poorly the team handled what happened over last year. Because there is no way the PR-obsessed Patriots (see above) will hire a first-year coach after the disaster that was first-year head coach Jerod Mayo.
Sometime in the next week, the Patriots will hire Mike Vrabel. They could have hired Vrabel a year ago if they had an actual search, rather than trying to prove to the world they had their own guy in Mayo. But there was no real coaching search.
And this, again in 2025, is a pretend coaching search. The team interviewed two black coaches (Pep Hamilton and Byron Leftwich) who had both been out of the NFL since 2002, just to appease the Rooney Rule. A third black head coach, Aaron Glenn, said no to an interview - he knows they’re going to hire Vrabel.
Johnson will get his interview Friday via Zoom and the team is spinning that it’s a real interview and the Lions OC could “blow them away.” I don’t believe it for a second. The Vrabel buzz started before Mayo was even fired so you have to imagine the two sides started talking before Sunday night.
Even if Johnson crushes the interview and he’s the best guy to help Drake Maye develop, there is too much risk for the team to take in another first-time coach.
No search last year. A pretend search this year. Awesome.
And maybe Vrabel is the right choice. He’s the safer choice, for sure. I preferred both he and Johnson to Mayo a year ago. I hope he’s a great hire. We’ll see.
Robert Kraft said in his Monday press conference “In the important decisions in my life, I've always said I measure nine times and cut once.” For a second straight offseason, it doesn’t look like much measuring went into the plans for the next head coach.
On your sports media and sports betting notebook…
➡️ So what is up with Ben Volin and the Boston Globe? For the second time this season, he did this weird thing where he tweeted a story or a report that is actually pretty juicy, but then doesn’t really write about it for or in the Boston Globe - the newspaper that employs him.
In October, he posted on X.com “I’m told Drake Maye went for an MRI after practice today. Something to watch this week.” No one else on the team beat reported or confirmed that. No one nationally did either. Then in the reporting, Connor Ryan of the Globe mentioned Volin’s report in passing, but Volin himself doesn’t write anything about it.
This past week, Volin posted that Alex Van Pelt had been fired. Five days later, the team has still only confirmed the Mayo firing. Volin finally got around to writing about his X.com post on Thursday in the Globe, quoting a league source that said Van Pelt told people in the Gillette Stadium parking lot Sunday night that “he and Mayo had been fired.”
Remember, Volin had to apologize for going on WEEI and running with what was a phony DM about Mac Jones having an attitude problem.
The theme here seems to be that Volin wants the Internet clout of the juicy story, but doesn’t meet the Globe standard (Ha!) for actually reporting on it. And where is the Globe in all of this? Are they okay with half-reporting on a social media platform by one of their biggest football writers?
It all seems very…weird.
➡️ Mike Felger moving to morning drive?
For a day at least, yes. Felger confirmed on Wednesday’s ‘Off Air Show’ that Felger and Mazz will fill in for Toucher and Hardy on Martin Luther King, Jr. Day (Monday, January 20). The Bruins play an afternoon game that day, so Felger and Co. would have only done a few hours late afternoon on a day when many have the day off from work.
WEEI and The Sports Hub should try more stuff like this, especially in the summer. I think it was Kirk Minihane who suggested to WEEI management years ago that for one week in the summer - when the ratings are least important in sports talk radio - that all the shows be shuffled up.
In this case, Felger and Mazz get moved to AM drive for a day. The day after the NFL’s Divisional Round of the playoffs is a smart day to do it, too.
➡️ I’m prepared to take the ‘L” on my theory that the Red Sox would make an announcement this Saturday at their new Fan Fest about the TV and radio crews for 2025. Lou Merloni will do a lot more games on TV. And Will Flemming is set to take over for the retired Joe Castiglione on the radio - both items first reported here months ago. But it does not sound like we’ll get that announcement this weekend.
➡️ I will say someone passed along that advance ticket sales for the event….not good. And no surprise, given the team’s last few seasons on and off the field.
➡️ New year, same Fred Toucher taking shots at Rich Shertenlieb for reportedly trying to get Fred fired.
➡️ Delta Airlines and DraftKings announced a partnership this week, but don’t expect to be betting on an in-flight screen. The FFA regulates, “An air carrier or foreign air carrier may not install, transport, or operate, or permit the use of, any gambling device on board an aircraft in foreign air transportation.”
It could lead to playing free games for Delta Miles, according to Casino.org.
Would I enjoy playing video poker or blackjack on the back of some random person’s seat on a flight from Boston to Nashville? Yes, yes I would.
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Week 18: 1-2
Season Record: 25-29* (46%) 🤢🤢🤢
* - Total includes 8-1 ATTD winner on Foster Moreau Week 17
A bad year for the picks, but a great year for NFL favorites. How about 143-124 ATS (54%). That’s the best year ATS for the chalk since 2017. You probably had a good NFL season if you like to bet favorites. I do not, so I did not. But it’s a new season let’s go!
The Side
BUCS -3 vs COMMANDERS (-105, FANDUEL)
I love the Bucs in this spot. When the lines went live Sunday this was the first bet I placed, figuring it would go north of the three points for sure. I was wrong. I mean, it did get to -3.5 for a little bit on Monday but it’s been -3 all week. Friday morning, I’m seeing
Quarterbacks starting their first playoff game against opposing QBs who have started a playoff game - just 19-37-1 ATS since 2017. Jayden Daniels falls into this category. His offense will have a hard time running the ball against Vita Vea and the #6 DVOA run defense in the NFL. The Bucs’ pass D will be bolstered by the return of former All-Pro Antonio Winfield. Daniels’ offensive line ranks 12th of 14 teams in Brandon Thorn’s Playoff Team OL rankings. He’s had an awesome year, but this feels like a good spot to bet against Daniels and Co.
On the other side of the ball, the Commanders D checks in 23rd DVOA on the season against the 29th-ranked defense schedule. Giants twice…Bears…Panthers…the medical tent Saints late in the season…this defense did play better towards the end of the season but got lucky with the schedule. The Bucs OL should give Baker Mayfield plenty of time to move the ball against a Washington defense that allowed a 108.1 QB rating-against on the road this season (30th). Bucky Irving gets a run defense that’s allowed over 90 yards a game on the ground over the last four.
The public is hammering the Commanders. I love the Bucs.
The Total
CHARGERS AT TEXANS UNDER 42.5 (-110, CAESARS)
Ah, classic AFC South Saturday Afternoon playoff game. Two very slow teams here. Per FTN’s sec/snap stat:
LAC - 32nd overall and 32nd in neutral-pace situations.
HOU- 22nd overall and 27th in neutral-pace situations.
Both come in with Top 10 DVOA defenses. The Texans’ offense ranks 26th and will have trouble moving the football with no Tank Dell. CJ Stroud likely to be under pressure all day with a bad OL in front of him.
Last 18 NFL playoff games in a dome have gone 12-6 to the under, per Action Network.
Really wish I had grabbed 44.5 at open, but 42.5 is still a playable under to kick off the slate on Saturday.
The Prop
LAMAR JACKSON OVER 8.5 CARRIES (-120 FANDUEL/CAESARS)
In his last four playoff games, Jackson has averaged 11 carries per game. With his top target Zay Flowers OUT, you can expect a few more scrambles from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Note he had 9+ carries in seven games this season, including the last game against the Steelers.
I will post a side or total pick for each game here on Substack Notes over the weekend. Subscribe and follow here.
On a poor start to 2025 for horse racing…
We’re just a week away from one of the first big Kentucky Derby Prep races of the year, the Lecomte Stakes. The runner-up finishers in the 2022 Kentucky Derby (Epicenter) and 2023 Derby (Two Phil’s) both ran in the Lecomte, so recently it’s been a good first step towards the First Saturday in May.
A few weeks later on February 1st, there’ll be three big prep races that will kick off the 2025 Derby Trail.
As far as horse racing goes, the first few strides of 2025 have not been good.
Mike Maloney, author of one of the best handicapping books published in the last 10 years, “Betting With an Edge,” told TDN he’s cut his betting back “about 90%” from where it was 10 years ago. Maloney cites the same issues we’ve talked about here in this newsletter for the last two years: CAW play, an outdated tote system, and track management teams that don’t think about the long-term health of the game. The story and quotes from Maloney are a sobering reminder of the state of the game.
2012 NHC Champ Michael Beychok agreed with Maloney’s assessment that “The out of date technology is definitely being exploited by CAWS and as Mike said, "there is larceny" in the system that drives all the value out for everyday bettors and it is crystal clear the tracks are going to do nothing.”
For the fourth time in the last five years, the national horse racing handle (total amount of money bet) dropped — a decline of almost 3.5% from 2023 to 2024.
From TDN’s Bill Finley - Equibase has issued the handle figures for 2024 and here's the number that matters. When adjusting for inflation, handle has fallen by 57.3% since 2003. With CAWS killing off so many everyday players it's only going to get worse.”
Late CAW money continues to come in and flummox the everyday bettor.
Not enough people are willing to talk and write about these issues, at least publicly. In addition to our Derby Prep coverage (beginning February 1st), I’m going to continue to hammer these points here - especially when more and more players like Maloney are betting less and less on a game he spent decades working in.
And with that, we have said it all.
Playoff Football!!! Good luck with all the bets in the Wild Card round. And thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
The people need more Mut!
Hiring Vrabel a year later now that they have no leverage means he is coming in with a ton of power too