A Note from MutStack Owner Dave Portnoy
No note from Dave this week. Naughty Nancy runs today in the 3rd at Belmont for Go Go Greys. Lovely Grey didn't have the best trip Thursday at Churchill. As one handicapper texted me yesterday, “100 ways to lose and only one way to win,” referencing how tough this game is. Go Go Greys will have their day, and hopefully, Nancy runs a big one today to break her maiden. More in the notes - safe trips for all 🏇🏻🏇🏻
What a win for #TeamTatum
Only one game, but a massive victory lap for those of us who backed the better player all these years in Tatum v. Brown
🏀 What a 🤡 move here in the pregame from Brown. For a deep thinker, this is some of the most immature shit you’re ever going to see in professional sports. The ball spin was his best highlight of the night in the Celtics’ blowout win.
🏀 Made WORSE by Brown saying after the game, “I wasn’t paying attention,” when asked about the obvious Tatum snub. 🤡🤡 Two weeks ago, Brown was issuing some cryptic warning to Tatum, telling him, “He should stay ready at all times." Now he can’t be bothered to do that himself. It would have been much better for him to just admit he hates Tatum, which he clearly does.
🏀 Brown and his PR team made sure to leak out all their ‘dirt’ in the 48 hours before the game, and none of it made Tatum or the Celtics look bad. Nothingburgers, all of it.
🏀 Brown calling last season “his favorite season” in the aftermath of piling up all those Tatum-less stats and then losing a 3-1 lead in the playoffs was absurd, and I wish I had written about it more. How could you have supported him after that?
🏀 Tatum has always been the better player, and if the team did indeed back him over Brown, they got it right. No one has been supportive of Brad Stevens making this trade - I wrote here over and over that it was the right move for the team long-term, even if there was a setback initially b/c of it.
🏀 I still believe it was more about Stevens recognizing the team wasn't going to win another title with Tatum and Brown than about not wanting to pay Brown. Although those things can be related, I guess.
🏀 Turns out they might be a better team without him, and with Paul George. George has basically said he’s here to “alleviate pressure and serve as a supporting veteran alongside Tatum.” He’s been awesome, obviously. He has 2+ steals in 7 of the 9 games he’s played. He has to stay healthy, blah blah blah, but he’s been great.
🏀 Not great - the NBC Sports Boston postgame Tuesday Night. “Hopefully, the drama is behind them, and they can focus on basketball.” How can you call yourself a journalist and say that out loud? Go join a coaching staff or go work in PR. Embarrassing. IT’S THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE SEASON! That crew seemed in pain having to talk about it. Bad TV.
Great week for #TeamTatum, of which MutStack is a Day 1 member. I’ll be happy to root against Jaylen and the 76ers for the next six months.
Meanwhile, Ben Volin wrote a dumb column as the Pats get ready for a big game. The eight teams MutStack says can win the Super Bowl. Looking to bounce back with the NFL Picks and a LOADED MutStack Notes.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #197
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On Ben Volin, Tom Brady, the Patriots and Lions…
Eli Raridon > Ben Volin
On the 8 teams that can win the Super Bowl…
My co-worker Marty Mush called his Giants “real Super Bowl contenders” this week. He’s an idiot, and NY’s loss at home Thursday night was a reminder that while they’re a nice story, they are NOT legit contenders to win it all this season,
Since you’re wondering, here at the NFL’s halfway point, here are the eight teams that CAN win the Super Bowl.
The Buffalo Bills
The Jacksonville Jaguars
The Kansas City Chiefs
The New England Patriots
The San Francisco 49ers
The Chicago Bears
The Minnesota Vikings
The Green Bay Packers
If I had to add a ninth team… the Cincinnati Bengals.
If your team is not on the list, apologies; they can’t win Super Bowl 61 at SoFi. Oh, Super Bowl is on Valentine’s Day this season, so plan ahead and do something nice for your significant other the week before. You’re welcome.
On a four-pack of Week 10 NFL Picks…
WEEK 9 RESULTS: 0-2, NO ATD WINNER
SEASON RESULTS: 11-14-1, 1 ATD, 1 DraftKings early exit
SEASON ATD: 1 for 9 (Odds of 7-1)
Saints win but don’t cover. Bucs/Bears get some wacky scores. Waddle early exit from DK; no bet - but he was going to go over. Dulcich BLAH. Halfway home in the regular season and the mediocrity continues. Lines from Thursday PM: make sure to check the world’s best sportsbook, DraftKings, for the latest lines.
The Side
COLTS (-3.5) VS. DOLPHINS (-118)
This is more of a MutGut pick than a deep handicap. The Colts could have sold off pretty much everyone at the deadline, but Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, and Tyler Warren are still here. Without a first-round pick, you can’t just assume Indy tanks the rest of the season. And going against the 26th-ranked DVOA defense - at home - they should be able to move the football. Someone named Kyle McCord is starting for the Dolphins. Miami feels like the team in tank mode, IMO.
The Total
STEELERS AT BENGALS UNDER 49.5 (+112)
These two teams are the third- and fourth-slowest neutral-situation teams in the NFL, per Sharp Football. Almost 30% of the Steelers’ drives end in three-and-outs. Yes, the Bengals want to throw it, but they’ll be going against DVOA Pass D #7 - and PIT is coming off their bye. Second meeting of divisional rivals, a PIT team that wants to play slow, and a team coming back from playing overseas just seven days ago. Sluggish UNDER incoming.
The Prop
CARSON BECK 2+ INT (+238)
Suspect Arizona is chucking it against the #3 DVOA Pass Defense in all the land and want to bet on them making plays here.
The ATD
ELI RARIDON +295
Lions have been cooked by TEs this year, and we’ll try and beat them here again this week.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
🏇🏻 So, I don’t know if she was ever getting to the winner, but Lovely Grey ran into trouble on Thursday afternoon at Churchill. Tight spot for Tyler Gaffalione to try and fire through, for sure. The hard check 100% cost her a Top 3 finish. She has talent, and I know she’s going to get back to the winner’s circle here - she just needs some racing luck.
🏇🏻 As mentioned, another shot for Go Go Greys this afternoon, Race 3 at Belmont, at #5 Naughty Nancy tries to break through in career start number 3. Nancy rated really well under Manny Franco last time and showed the synthetic will be no issue (this race is on the turf). I think the race goes through her. Her main rival will be the #1 on the inside, but if you’re looking for a better price in the exacta, #4 Judysdancin Tonite is bred to run on this surface, and Chad Brown is 61% in the money over the last 30 days.
🎙️Really enjoyed hearing legendary broadcaster Jim Nantz with The Big O this week. You can listen here - some good stories and interesting to hear Nantz talking about dealing with Sports media critics.
🎙️Very sad news about one of Nantz’ contemporaries, Dan Hicks, who passed away suddenly this week at the age of 64. I watched hours of golf with Hicks and Johnny Miller up in the tower, and I thought Hicks was about as good as it gets at navigating big golf moments. As my friend Kirk pointed out yesterday, he likely holds the distinction of having two all-time calls in two different sports in the shortest amount of time ever. The famous call of Tiger Woods’ 12-foot birdie putt to force a playoff with Rocco Mediate at the 2008 U.S. Open was on Sunday, June 15, 2008. Then his iconic call of Jason Lezak’s anchor leg in the U.S. men’s 4×100 freestyle relay (which kept Michael Phelps’ eight-gold quest alive and set a world record) was on August 11, 2008 - both just 57 days apart. Nailed them both. Condolences to his friends and family during this tough time.
🚩 “This tournament sucks.” Speaking of my friend Kirk, I know My Boss Dave said that out of frustration with Riggs being way too nice a competitor in the final round of the insanely popular, well-produced Internet Invitational, but it was a good reminder of why Kirk 100% NEEDS to be part of the event in 2027. Should have been in the last two years. His presence in that final round would have been must-see, given how it played out. Dave has said over and over that he doesn't pick the players himself, but hopefully he’ll remember that moment when next year's field is being discussed. No-brainer stuff.
🚨 Kirk (and Dave Cullinane) deserve real praise for their investigative work in helping to solve another murder. Zero doubt their in-depth research as part of Season 2 of The Case was part of the reason that this week Matthew Farwell was found guilty of murdering Sandra Birchmore and her unborn child, then staging it to look like a suicide. It’s an awful story, and it still feels like local law enforcement has questions to answer about how it was initially handled and investigated.
🏈 Good moment for Tom Brady here, breaking down Drake Maye, really for the first time. “But he hates the fans!” Ben Volin, probably. Idiot.
🏀 Looks like no Nik Khamenia for the next three months. Tough blow - the Duke transfer has been great for UConn. Huge non-conference games ahead, but if he’s back for the Big East schedule/tourney, this team still can be special in March.
📺 Only watched clips, but hard to imagine the audience for the (Diana) Russini Report was excited about her and DA joking about internet memes and ignoring the massive elephant in the room.
That feels like enough Stack for this week. Back tomorrow with the weekly horseracing blog for Barstool, which will highlight a few bad headlines for the sport this week. And some spot plays for Saturday.
Good luck with all the bets this weekend. Thanks for reading. And watching.
P.S. - The 5/6 Chelmsford Chargers lost in the Super Bowl. Played great but lost to a better team. We'll be back in 2027