Friday Four-Pack 11.14.25
Patriots shine on TNF. Changes coming for horse racing & CAWs? UConn Football deserves more attention. Week 11 NFL Picks. Sports Radio ramblings.
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
No note from Dave this week. The Barstool College Football Show & Big Noon Kickoff are in Chicago for Michigan vs. Northwestern at Wrigley Field. I am embarrassed to report I’ve never been to Wrigley. And I never made it to the old Yankee Stadium before it was torn down—a real blemish on my sports fan resume.
Dave is a college football guy. He’s on the biggest college football show in the country every Saturday. There are teams in the Big Ten that seem afraid of him. When he shows up on a college campus, they roll out the red carpet.
Me? I’m not a college football guy. But I am a UConn guy. And it’s about time UConn gets some national attention for the college football season they’re having.
UConn Quarterback Joe Fagnano is the first FBS QB to throw for 25 touchdowns and 0 INTs through the first 10 games of a season since Marcus Mariota in 2014. Mariota, of course, won the Heisman.
Fagnano is a terrific story. Played four years at Maine and yet somehow still has three years of eligibility for UConn. How is that possible? Again, I'm not a college football guy, so I have no clue. But his stat line this season is like something out of a video game.
68.8%, 2,842 yards, 25 TDs, 0 INTs
25 TDs. Zero INTs.
Joey F was named a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award this week. He’s not going to win the Heisman, but it’s not insane to mention his name and the award in the same paragraph. For a quarterback from UConn, that’s a wild thing to type, but it’s true.
Skyler Bell ended up at UConn as a transfer from Wisconsin. He returned to the portal after last season and was reportedly offered $500,000 by Michigan, but he ultimately chose to come back to UConn.
They’ve rewarded him by feeding him the football. And he’s rewarded them by being one of the best wide receivers in the country. There’s a chance he wins the receiving Triple Crown, something only a handful of guys have done recently. That list includes Ja’Mar Chase and Michael Crabtree.
At 6’0″ and 185 pounds, he makes plays all over the field. Downfield, screen game, you name it. He’ll be drafted by some NFL team by the end of Day 2, and the team that gets him will be lucky to have him.
This? This is just glorious. When they start selling this as a framed photo at the UConn Bookstore, I’ll be the first in line to get it. Almost 40k fans packed into The Rent for UConn’s dramatic win over Duke. UConn Fans have fully embraced this team and shown everyone that the best college football program in New England plays its home games on an old air strip in East Hartford, CT.
So many people called for the school to abandon big-time college football. They stuck with it, and they deserve credit for that decision.
If the Huskies played in a major conference, there would be much more buzz. But they're stuck as an Independent, for now. I could write a whole newsletter on that. Or I could spend time worrying that Jim Mora will leave for a bigger program or even the NFL in a few months. But not today.
No, today, we celebrate UConn football. Dave has a weekly segment on Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff called #AskDave. At some point on Friday, he’ll ask for some questions using that #AskDave tag on X.com. Feel free to join me in asking him when UConn will get some love on his big college football show. They certainly deserve it.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye, Stefon Diggs, and TreVeyon Henderson lead the Patriots to a win over the Jets. Plus, what I’m hearing about horse racing and CAWs. Week 11 NFL Picks and your MutStack Notes have a few radio nuggets for the people.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
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On a Patriots 27-14 win over the Jets…
Solid 13-point win over the Jets. Never really in doubt. How about 13 notes on the win?
🏈 Bad teams eff around and lose games on Thursday night. After the Jets opening drive, the Pats thoroughly dominated Gang Green - the way a really good team should.
🏈 Drake Maye had another handful of MVP throws in the win. It wasn’t his best, but this play on the sideline was just another example of how he plays the quarterback position like a point guard. He also had a jump pass, during which Kirk Herbstreit mentioned his basketball skills.
🏈 Seaking of Herbstreit, he was GUSHING over Maye all game long on Amazon Prime. He used the word humble at least three times. Talked glowingly about his pocket presence; you can tell he loves the kid, and rightfully so. Sucks we didn’t get Tom Brady on a Drake Maye game this season.
🏈 Drake Maye is only 23 years old.
🏈 I wanted the Pats to draft Jahmyr Gibbs in the 2024 draft. It turns out TreVeyon Henderson might be a version of Gibbs who can also run through defenders. Did a great job of helping Maye in pass protection, in addition to scoring 3 TDs.
🏈 I didn’t think Stefon Diggs had this type of season left in him as he gets set to turn 32 years old later this month. Always open, he’s helped Maye elevate on third down.
🏈 The Jets are gonna Jet. Too many men on the field after a timeout. Silly play calls. Dumb penalties. Fields's sloppy fumble. No quarterback, and the real feeling that Aaron Glenn is not the right coach - happy Friday, Jet fan!
🏈 I liked the uniforms. I want the Royal Blues back for a game at some point, but if they wore these once a year, fine with me.
🏈 Al Michaels, at 81 years young, is still a big-game announcer. So many shitty TNF games last year, he’s been on the call for some big ones this season. Love Al.
🏈 The Patriots were VERY lucky that Mike Vrabel took that prep year and worked with the Browns after getting fired in Tennessee. Multiple teams are kicking themselves for not hiring him right away. Give the Krafts credit for dumping out of the Mayo Disaster after Year 1, but holy moly, so lucky to have landed Vrabel.
🏈 We’re all lucky Josh McDaniels is here to mentor Drake Maye. He set him up for easy throws on Thursday night, something Herbstreit kept hammering. Alex Van Pelt could never.
🏈 Thought the crowd was pretty good last night. Gillette is not known for having a crazy homefield advantage, but it seemed loud from beginning to end.
🏈 Thursday’s win was not the only reason, but you’re allowed to be thinking BIG about this team. MVP QB. #1 Seed in the AFC. Coach of the Year in Vrabel. I mocked KMS producer Justin Trudell when he said the team would go 15-2. Not so crazy, today.
You sat through Cam Newton. And Bailey Zappe. And Matt Patricia running the offense. 🤮 And Mayo doing, well, I have no clue, on the sidelines.
Enjoy this, Patriots fans. Soak it in. You deserve it.
On the news I’m hearing RE: horse racing and CAWs…
Not reporting, but hearing. There is change coming…I think. One edit - when I mention “one racetrack,” I do mean one whole racing jurisdiction.
On your Week 11 MutStack NFL Picks…
Week 10 Results: 1-2 | ATD Kyle Pitts ❌ | Patriots ML ✅
On the Season: 13-17 | ATD bets 3 for 10 | ML Dog 2 for 4
Henderson had the huge game I hoped for, but none of it came in the passing game. Pats ML was nice. The March of Mediocity continues. Odds from DraftKings as of Friday morning.
The Side
VIKINGS -3 (-102) VS BEARS. It felt like last week was a good place to fade Daniel Jones, and the Colts should have lost to the Falcons in Germany. This week, I want to fade Caleb Williams. The Bears have gotten fat off an easy schedule - their wins have come against the Giants, Bengals, Saints, Commanders, Raiders, and Cowboys. Now they have to go to Minnesota with that terrible pass defense (26th DVOA) against a sharp HC in Kevin O’Connell. He’s going to find ways to attack this Bears’ secondary, and the Vikings’ DL has a significant advantage up front over the Bears.
The Total
BILLS VS. BUCS UNDER 47.5 (-110). I suspect the Bills will bounce back and win this weekend against the Bucs, but I’d rather play the under than the side. Since Week 6, the Bills are the slowest offensive team in FTN’s sec/snap snaps. The second slowest team? The Bucs. Without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, moving the ball in the air can be a struggle. They might get Bucky Irving back here, but they still play slow. Now they face a Bills D with a Top 6 Pass Defense (EPA/Pass Play). Both teams will try to run and struggle to make big plays downfield.
The Prop
COURTLAND SUTTON UNDER 49.5 REC (-112)
The Chiefs have been good against opposing receivers this year, and Sutton has failed to clear this number in back-to-back games. I thought Nix looked rattled last week, and I could see Denver going run-heavy/dink and dunk on Sunday in a huge divisional game.
The ATD
PAT FREIERMUTH +230. The Bengals have been historically bad against TEs, and one of the Pit TEs is scoring this week.
The ML Dog Mut Says is Barking
LIONS +124. Love the move to get Dan Campbell back calling plays and was VERY close to Jameson Williams 50+ REC YARDS (-106) as the prop this week. Think he has a good game.
On your Weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ It’s here! Episode #1 of Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast dropped this week. Hosted by the rocketship known as Hogdale, I’m alongside with professional Yankees Troll KutterisKing. The Red Sox offseason is in focus for Episode #1. A lot of expectations for Craig Breslow and Co. Hope you’ll subscribe and listen. Note the ‘Explicit’ tag on, in case you were going to listen or watch with the kids in the car.
Yep, there are many Red Sox podcasts, but I’m confident this one will have a distinct energy and edge.
It’s the most significant offseason in recent Red Sox memory. No better time than now to jump in.
🏀 At 6-7 (SIX-SEVVVVVVVEN), I don’t think we’re getting a full tank from the Celtics, but watching this team sans Jayson Tatum is not very enjoyable.
🏀 My co-worker Steven Cheah came up with a great weekly blog idea where die-hard NBA fans write up their teams in a blurb. Wish I had thought of that. You can check it out here.
🏈 The Jags' failure to cover last week against the Texans did not receive the attention it deserved. Jaguars led by 19 pts entering the 4th quarter, then lost 36-29. According to the Action Network, over the last decade, teams with 19+ point leads entering 4Q were 149-1 ATS as either a dog or a favorite of 3 points or less. The only other loss? Falcons 28-3 vs. Patriots in Super Bowl. Brutal.
📺 I learned what a sit-com was yesterday…at age 45.
🎥 I have not seen Weapons or Sinners. You can only watch one this weekend, which one?
🏀 Looking forward to seeing UConn fans take over the Boston Garden Saturday night for UConn/BYU.
🏈 This throw from Drake Maye last Sunday in the win over the Bucs might be his best play/throw of the year.
⛳ My friend Kirk Minihane should have been involved, but the final installment of The Internet Invitational was outstanding. Not a Golf YouTube guy, but this is must-see drama. Sounds like Kirk is in for the 2026 edition. 👀👀
🎙️ 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Mark Dondero had a manufactured spit-take that was pretty cringy. An unexpected byproduct was the number of people who came out of the woodwork in the DMs and texts from The Sports Hub to rip Dondero for that act and more. Jealousy from co-workers? Maybe. But the knives were out. Mike Felger is a fan, for sure.
🎙️ His former co-host, Boomer Esiason, said last month he would not be shocked if Craig Carton made a return to WFAN. The radio rumor mill says that’s a very real possibility.
🏈 Pats fans! Saturday! I’m hosting a Q&A with Patriots Legend Vince Wilfork at The Brook Casino in Seabrook, NH. Doors will open to the public at around 1:45 for the 2 PM event. Based on previous events like this at The Brook, you’ll want to get in line before that for this free event. Sounds like Ty Law will also be in the building. The DraftKings Sportsbook will be rocking with college football. It should be a fun afternoon, and I hope to see you there. Details here.
And with that, I believe we have said it all.
Good luck with all the bets this weekend. Remember, the Pats don’t play Sunday, so if you have a wife or girlfriend who could use a break from all-day football, you have a window if you want it.
We do have LAR/SEA and KC/DEN in the late window, so plan accordingly. You’re welcome.
And thanks for reading.
I want to thank you for giving all of us the explicit tag on the new podcast, "Dirty Water". I will still listen, but maybe not with the wife and kid in the car knowing how crazy you three can get.
The Fagnano stat line is absolutly insane. 25 TDs with zero interceptions is video game territory, and the fact he stil has three years of eligibility is wild. That comparison to Marcus Mariota really puts it in perspective. Drake Maye continuing to impress on TNF was great to see. The way he operates in the pocket reminds me of his colege tape.