Friday Four-Pack 11.15.24

The comedy of the Aaron Hernandez TV mini-series. Are the Red Sox finally looking to spend? Media notes and NFL Week 11 Picks!

My fellow Substack author Red Sox Stats posted this Thursday on the social media platform Bluesky (more on BlueSky below).

Stats is not prone to hyperbole. He’s been in front of some of the biggest Sox moves over the last 10 years and when he writes that, I believe it comes from a place of very informed speculation.

Audacy’s Rob Bradford weighed in Thursday night with a similar theme.

No one has ever accused Rob of being a hot-take artist, and you get the sense he talks to some essential folks in the Red Sox front office.

Full-Throttle 2.0 - This time we REALLY mean it.

At least that’s the message they’re trying to convey to their fans through Stats, Bradford, and others.

A few thoughts on this theme that the Big Market Red Sox, after years of carefully making sure their salary was kept in check, are now ready to once again fish for big free-agent stars.

• The Athletic’s Red Sox Jen McCaffery made a point that should worry all Red Sox fans heading into this all-important off-season

The fanbase is skeptical and cynical with the club’s mediocrity and malaise and the free-agent players themselves are likely to focus on organizations that have been more committed to winning at all costs in recent years.

It’s one thing for the fanbase to bail on you. But when you get to a point where the free agent class doesn’t believe you’re willing to spend or be competitive at the top of the market, you’re really screwed.

This happened last year with the team’s Head of Baseball Operations search. Eight or more candidates declined to even interview for the job. These people didn’t want to run THE BOSTON RED SOX. It’s fair to speculate that the candidates had the same questions about spending and motivation as the fanbase, and now the free-agent class.

Money still talks and if they want to wayyyyyyyy overspend for a player, this might not matter. But if the money is close, the team’s recent unwillingness to spend like other big market teams around MLB could tip the scales against them.

• Letting Stats, Bradford, and others know how serious they are about finally spending is a risky proposition. They have rightfully earned the title of Interest Kings for claiming to be “in” on players they never seem to get. If they’re hoping to get credit for almost signing Soto, it doesn't work that way.

• At just 26 and in the conversation as the best overall hitter in baseball, OF COURSE, Soto is worth a $600 million investment. His .927 postseason OPS in 191 at-bats suggests the bright lights of the playoffs (or Boston) should not be an issue. He’d be a great fit.

• Do I think they’ll sign him? Nope. They’ll almost sign him. Sam Kennedy will whisper to the beat writers how close the two sides were: how they did all they could. Oh, and how committed John Henry is to winning in Boston. But in the end, they won’t spend at the top of the market for a legitimate top-of-the-market player.
  
  We have seen this play out time and time again as the big-budget Red Sox have become one of the cheapest teams in baseball.

The 2004 Red Sox documentary on Netflix reminded us there was a time when Sox owners were all-in. There is no sign they still have that level of commitment to doing everything they can to win another World Series. And it takes that to sign a player like Juan Soto.

But hey, at least they’re interested.

Meanwhile, we finally got to the bottom of Who Killer Aaron Hernandez. A Boston radio host has been limited by a sportsbook. And Week 11 NFL Picks to tail or trash.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez

Admittedly, this was the only reason I watched.

At some point in FX’s American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez, the show was going to highlight a 2017 segment on WEEI’s Kirk and Callahan when investigative journalist Michelle McPhee joined the guys to promote her book. During the segment, McPhee joked about the rumor she had heard that Hernandez was bisexual. She wrote a few days later that his sexuality was indeed being investigated as a possible murder motive.

Two days after the segment, Hernandez hanged himself in his prison cell, a scene graphically portrayed by the TV series that concluded this past Tuesday.

When the IMDB page showed Kirk Minihane and Michelle McPhee as two of the characters played on the show, you knew they’d include this segment as part of their storytelling. So I committed to the series.

I don’t think the show was supposed to be funny. The subject of the story - former NFL tight leads a double-life where he’s actually a cold-blooded killer and most of the people around him had no idea - yeah, that does not exactly scream humor. But as someone who watched all ten episodes, I will remember it mostly for the laughs it generated.

The wacky portrayal of Bill Belichick
The sheer unathleticism of the actor who plays Hernandez. Good actor. Non-athlete
The draft scene when Kraft and Belichick discuss drafting Hernandez
The ridiculous dialogue
The actor who played Gronk nailing Gronk

And of course the WEEI scenes from Episode 10 titled, Who Killed Aaron Hernandez?

The studio. Gerry Callahan looking 20 years younger. The fake Cyrus Jones call. And Gerry’s “Gooooooooood morning” to that fake Cyrus Jones caller. So good.

It was worth grinding through the nine previous episodes to get to the finale. The studio background might be the old wall wrap for the actual studio for Dennis and Callahan - it still has NESN on it and I’m pretty sure Kirk and Callahan were never on NESN. I digress. There were for sure some laughs along the way during the 10-part series.

But was it a good show? No.

Like other Hernandez docs and podcasts before it, it tries to pawn off his murderous behavior on concussions and the secrets of his sexuality. He had real-life issues, of course, but a lot of people have had issues in their lives and they don’t commit murder. I can’t get behind the portrayal of Hernandez as a sympathetic figure.

Even the last episode seems to suggest that the WEEI segment led Hernandez to smoke Spice/K2, see God, and decide to end his own life.

He’s serving a life sentence for the murder of Odin Lloyd.
He threw away an NFL career.
But this radio segment was somehow the last straw.

Got it.

To his credit, Kirk predicted back in April exactly how this would play out.

It is not a good series. If the goal was to convince me as a viewer to feel enough sympathy for Hernandez, that it somehow normalizes or justifies his actions, it failed. If you missed it, I would not recommend sitting through the 10-part series.

But it did make me laugh, even if that wasn’t the intended goal of the show.

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On Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul…

To quote the great Mike Salk, I am exceptionally excited about this fight.

I shouldn't be. It’s a 58-year-old Mike Tyson fighting someone I know little about in a matchup that seems more cartoon than reality.

But I’m in.

My excitement is mostly fueled by nostalgia. The UFC is king, I get it. But I missed the boat on becoming a huge UFC fan. Before UFC, we had boxing. And big heavyweight fights meant going to a friend’s house in high school to watch the fight on one of those ‘black box’ devices that got all the PPV content for free. I think it actually got every channel for free. Does that sound right?

I have no clue how those worked, but we were there for every big fight.

Even after high school, years of big fights with Lennox Lewis, Roy Jones Jr., Manny Pacquiao, Bernard Hopkins, Floyd Mayweather Jr., Ricky Hatton, and Mickey Ward…all worth investing time and money in. I remember HBO fights with an Ohio fighter named Kelly “The Ghost” Pavlik that were must-see events.

But along the way, boxing lost the script, and fights that would have been blockbusters happened years after they should have. Or never happened at all.

Ironically, this fight was scheduled for July but had to be pushed back because of a major health scare for Tyson. But now The Baddest Man on the Planet is a +160 underdog to Jake Paul (-200).

Netflix is betting big on live sports. A 2016 Mayweather v. Pacquiao bout drew 4.6 million viewers and there’s an expectation Tyson-Paul could surpass that Friday night. Just over a month from now, they’ll host an NFL doubleheader on Christmas. This is a big deal and will probably lead to more live sports on the streaming service.

Legalized sports betting will certainly help viewership. It’s easy to find on mobile sportsbooks and they’re all offering dozens of prop bets on the fight. According to ESPN, it’s the most heavily bet boxing match in years. The public appears to be betting on Tyson, while the big bets have come on the YouTube star turned boxer (10-1 record).

The nostalgia. The spectacle. The interest in seeing how Netflix does in a big live sports spot. The chance to bet a few bucks.

I’m here for all of it - even if it’s one, big, made-for-Netflix gimmick.

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Week 10: 2-1 /// Season Record: 17-13 (56.6%)

🏈 The Side
BROWNS +1 AT SAINTS

Did not expect to be backing the Browns here in Week 11, but here we are. This is a great spot for Nick Chubb. Off the extended rest of the bye week, he gets a Saints defense that has collapsed over the last month and is now ranked 31st in the league against the run (DVOA). The Browns’ offensive line should be a major advantage in this one, especially with the return of talented RG Wyatt Teller.

The Browns might have an even bigger advantage on their defensive line. They’re talented and healthy - and this week should feast on what has been one of the worst OLs in the league this season.

I can’t see how the Saints put up many points here. FWIW, Saints QB Derek Carr is just 29-41-1 ATS after a SU win, the third-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003 per Action Network. He’ll be under pressure throughout here and I’m happy to back the Browns on the road.

🏈 The Total
PACKERS AT BEARS UNDER 40.5

We find our weekly total under in Chicago where the Bears mercifully fired OC Shane Waldron this week. Enter Thomas Brown for Chicago and if you’re hoping he all of a sudden unlocks Caleb Williams, I think you’re out of luck.

Brown called plays at the end of the Panthers’ season in 2023 and the offense was slow, run-heavy, and boring. I know this because I bet a few Panthers’ OVERS, hoping the guy from the Sean McVay coaching tree may spice things up: he did not.

The Packers operate as a slow offense - bottom 12 in SEC/SNAP in neutral-pace situations. They run the ball at the league’s 5th-highest rate in those same neutral-pace situations.

Divisional game. One pretty slow offense. Another offense with a bad OL and a new coordinator who might try and slow things down based on previous coaching stints. Under for me in Chicago.

🏈 The Prop
JONATHAN TAYLOR O10.5 REC YARDS
(Has moved to 11.5 is most places since Thursday, still a play at that number)

Yes, Anthony Richardson returns and Joe Flacco heads back to the bench. And that probably means fewer dump-offs. But this line is too low. Taylor has eclipsed this number in five of seven games this season. Two of his biggest receiving games of the year came with Richardson starting. We just watched James Connor go for 5 REC/80 YDS against this same defense just last week. He plays 80%+ of the snaps every week and could fall into 11 yards pretty easily in this spot.

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On your sports media and sports betting notes…

➡️ Adam Kaufman hosts the only daily sports betting show based in Boston. Airing live each night (Monday- Thursday, 10 PM-12 AM) on AM 680 WRKO and in podcast form the next day, The Gambler is exclusively about sports betting.

You can add its host to the list of sports bettors who’ve been limited at certain mobile sports books.

Without getting into specifics, Kaufman told me where he used to get down “$100s” on certain bets, he’s now lucky if a $20 wager on the same type of bet sneaks through. “Typically anything around $10 is safe,” he told me Thursday. These limits coincided with Kaufman realizing he stopped getting any promotions from the same mobile sportsbook.

Thankfully, Kaufman is active on multiple books in Massachusetts and limited at just one. You should be doing this too, if you’re trying to win longterm.

Like many in the sports betting space, he believes the pattern of action is more likely to get you limited vs. winning a lot of money. And like others who have been limited, he did not receive any warning or explanation.

When he reached out to ask how and why this happened, he got this unenlightening response:

This is at the core of what has miffed so many new sports bettors - limiting without any warning or explanation. It’s why Massachusetts held a roundtable looking for answers as to how and why these sportsbooks decide to limit certain players.

Being a winning sports bettor is hard. It’s even harder when the sportsbooks decide you’ve won enough and you can’t bet with them anymore.

➡️ While Classic Rock 100.7 WZLX expressed immediate interest in bringing back both Emerson Lotzia and Michael Hurley after last week’s cancellation of The Rich Sheterlieb Show, I’m told it’s been “radio silence” from iHeart Boston on how they plan on moving forward. Kenny Young was in all week playing DJ in morning drive and that could continue into the New Year.

➡️ Assuming he’s all-in, Barstool Sports’ hiring of Jon Gruden seems like a slam dunk. He’s a much better fit than Bill Belichick would have been. And I’m not just saying that because Gruden was raving about Drake Maye on Thursday night.

➡️ I reached out to the Red Sox about their timetable for announcing a new radio voice but did not get a response. One name that I heard loosely connected to the opening was Dave Simms. Thursday night Simms was named the new radio voice of the Yankees. I think Will Flemming, while not a lock, is still the favorite for the Sox gig…whenever they get around to announcing it.

➡️ There has been a big push from sports media members to announce their move from X.com to the aforementioned Bluesky social media platform. I get wanting to be active on any and all platforms but I’ll admit, I don’t get the pomp and circumstance of announcing and then celebrating it…on a platform you’re excited to leave.

One writer at Awful Announcing seems pretty pumped!

Established users of the social media app spent the day welcoming new arrivals with messages about how this was the panacea they were looking for. They shared “Starter Packs” to help newbies find their old friends and good follows. They made it clear that 2024 Bluesky is nothing like 2024 X. Better yet, that 2024 Bluesky actually resembles 2012 Twitter.

Infinity 🙄🙄🙄

➡️ Unless major newsbreakers like Shams and Schefter start moving, X.com will continue to be the most useful platform for sports fans.

'➡️ Heard from a very reliable source that the CAW (Computer Assisted Wagering) groups that have dominated the pools in American horse racing over the last few years got beat pretty badly betting on the 2024 Breeders’ Cup. They still got their rebates and advantages, but they took a big loss. Glad I was not the only one.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Back on Sunday morning with any betting updates for Week 11 in the NFL.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.