A Note from MutStack Owner Dave Portnoy
No note from Dave this week. Wishing him and the Barstool College Football Show the best this week in South Bend. UConn fans set the bar pretty high last Friday in East Hartford. Let’s see if the Notre Dame fans can match that energy Saturday afternoon. I’ll be tuned in post UConn/UNC and Bill Belichick’s New England return. Watch here Saturday at 4:30.
I was Take Mocked this week.
On the very popular Barstool Sports’ Sports Show, Sports Central, I made what I thought was a pretty obvious SPORTS TAKE - that with his play over the last five weeks, Drake Maye was back in the NFL MVP conversation.
Everyone on the panel basically laughed at me like they were hearing Artie Lange in his prime.
Maye just got named AFC Player of the Month, so yeah, he’s been good; good enough to be talked about in the MVP race.
The betting market shows him in it. As the sixth betting choice eight weeks into the season, I’d call that pretty clearly in the conversation.
The numbers show him in it. Over the last five weeks, he’s #1 among all QBs in the following categories: total yards, total TDs, passer rating, and EPA. You want the season-long numbers? Fine. Per NBC Sports Boston: Passing yards: 1,983 (6th), Passing TDs: 15 (T-5th), Completion %: 67.1 (7th), Completion % over expected: +4.0 (7th), Yards per attempt: 8.5 (T-2nd), Rating: 100.4 (10th), EPA/dropback: 0.13 (8th). Basically Top 10 in any major QB stat you’d want to look at. Seems pretty obvious based on the numbers.
You HAVE to factor in the injuries.
The Pats have been the most injured team in football. That includes, at times, Maye’s Top 3 WRs, his starting TE, his #2 RB, and some of his OL. Those are players directly tied to his performance and the offense as a whole. Seems pretty obvious, just not to the Sports Central guys.
The Pats D has been okay (11th DVOA), but it’s not like some unit that’s put the team on its back. No, that’s been Maye, who went 9 for 10 for 146 yards and 3 TDs (1 rushing) in the second half against the Dolphins. Playing without his top four offensive weapons, he was going to have to look like the MVP candidate from 2025 if the Pats were going to get to 5-3…and he was.
Six of his eight interceptions came in the first three weeks of the season. And even with those, he’s 4th in QBR behind only Purdy, Caleb, and Burrow - and ahead of Allen and Lawrence.
Pats win the AFC East…McCaffrey puts up huge numbers in San Fran…Bengals don’t win the North…those things would move Maye into the Top 3 in the MVP conversation.
Those first three games were such a drop-off from last year that you had to have some questions about what was going on. Maye has answered many of those with his play in October, at least to me. Certainly not the Sports Central guys, but they’re mostly idiots.
They’ll need him to show up, once again shorthanded, in a big spot Sunday. But MVP Drake Maye is back - even if some people don’t want to believe it
Meanwhile, Brady and Gronk are back too, and Pats/Packers is the best NFL game Sunday afternoon. Tony Mazz took the AI cheese. MutStack NFL Picks are heating up, and plenty of weekly notes.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #196.
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On the return of Brady, Gronk, and Pats/Packers…
Also not afraid of the Jags.
On a Tony Mazz duped by a fake Bill Belichick video…
I was once a featured member of a popular radio segment called Battle of the Brainless - I’m a moron, I get it. Like, there are probably 5-10 grammar or spelling errors in today’s newsletter. And as a moron, I know when you mess up, you have to have some fun with it; especially on social media.
Fellow moron Tony Massarotti has not figured this out yet.
Mazz reposted this YouTube video very early Tuesday morning. The thumbnail is a grabber - Bill Belichick talking about the regret of leaving the Pats. Juicy!
And starting the video, you’d think it’s pretty clearly Belichick. It’s weird there’s no host here; Bill is sort of rambling, but it sure does sound and look like him.
Bill coached with Romeo Crennel for almost 20 years. So about five minutes into the video, when Bill says he remembers some of those meetings with “Romeo Krennell” (pronounced like dog kennel), it was a pretty good tell that it was a fake AI video. It’s a good fake video, but I don’t think Bill would mess up Romeo’s name 😂😂😂
Did Mazz not listen to it? Did he listen and just miss that? Did someone send it to him and he was just trying to get the views? Not sure. Once people started chirping him that he was reposting a fake video, he deleted the post like it never happened. No “Haha, I fucked up.” No joking about how good AI has gotten. Just delete and forget. Booooooooooooooooooo.
I skimmed through as much of Felger and Mazz from Tuesday afternoon as I could, hoping they could have some fun with it. But most of the show was with the least fun person in sports media history, Greg Bedard. What a windbag. If they mentioned it, it was only in passing. And no clip was posted on social of the guys busting his balls about it.
Mazz was fooled by a fake Linda Pizzutti (played by Kirk Minihane) into making personal videos and saying shit on the radio. And quite often, when I listen, Felger quickly corrects him on something he just said, and he has to backtrack or correct himself. All that to say I’m guessing he's sensitive about this. But like, wear a big DUNCE cap for a segment on TV. Or repost everyone mocking you. Couldn’t he do that? Couldn’t his show do that? Maybe he just does not want to be the ‘dummy’ on that show, even if the listeners know he is.
Mazz was a reporter for the Herald for a long time - maybe the reporter in him was so embarrassed he could not joke about this.
I love the idea of Mazz seeing this video, then seeing that there is NO Twitter buzz about it, and thinking, “I’m gonna be the first one to post this!” Am I a bad person for laughing at that scene? Probably.
In Tony’s defense, a ton of commenters on the video also seem to think it was real. But they’re not former newspaper reporters.
Massive goof-up from Mazz. And a missed chance for both him and his show to get some laughs out of it.
On your Four-Pack of Week 9 NFL Picks…
WEEK 8 RESULTS: 2-1, NO ATD WINNER
SEASON RESULTS: 11-12-1, 1 ATD
SEASON ATD: 1 for 8 (Odds of 7-1)
That Bucs result was 100% aided by the monsoon in Tampa, but we’ll take it. Lines from the world’s best sportsbook, DraftKings, as of Thursday night. Make sure to check for updated lines. #dkpartner
The Side
SAINTS (-3) VS. BROWNS
I suspect this his headed to -3.5, so grab the three if you can. Looks like Shedeur Sanders will start this one for a banged-up Cleveland team. Leading receiver Harold Fannin was also limited Thursday with a groin injury. Saints are off the bye, and that’s worked this season in the NFL. Per Action Network, teams with extended rest/rest-advantage a solid 27–10-1 ATS. I don’t love the Saints, but this is more about a Cleveland team that’s worse than their 5-3 record might suggest.
The Total
BEARS VS. BUCS UNDER 47.5 (-112)
I know it’s not fun to play unders in big primetime games, but this one stands out to me. Slow teams who want to run and play good defense.
Bucs: 3rd-slowest SEC/PLAY. #2 in Neutral Situation Run Rate. #1 DVOA Defense
Bears: 12th-slowest SEC/PLAY. #6 Neutral Situation Run Rate. #16 DVOA Defense
Baker’s hand might still be hurt. Caleb has one less day of prep for Todd Bowles after the MNF win PLUS a third straight primetime game for the Bears. Good game where I would also bet the Bucs +6, but for this, UNDER.
The Prop
JAYLEN WADDLE 50+ REC YARDS (+104)
The Panthers are down to their reserves all over the CB position. If Waddle is ever going to break out, this is the spot Sunday in Carolina.
The ATD
GREG DULCICH (DOLPHINS TIGHT END) +300
Lions getting torched by TEs this season. Think the Dolphins keep this game snug
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
🏒 Despite the worst second period in the history of hockey, we were still just one goal away from cashing Elio’s over while Chasing Goals Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. The Ice People are awesome. Elio and Murls are two of the best guys I’ve met at Barstool. And Pittsburgh was a great city to spend 24 hours in. Will be back for a Pirates game next summer, for sure.
🎲 “It’s a gambler’s world…it’s not for everyone.” “All the losses blend together.” “I’d do anything to change up the luck.” Just a couple of the A+ quotes from the night. The Ice People are gamblers at heart, and you just love to see it. Awesome time with the crew.
🏇🏻 Speaking of gambling, it’s been six days, and I’m still not over liking The Puma in the Classic, seeing him run a huge second at 17-1, and not cashing a ticket. Brutal betting to ruin some very good handicapping.
🏀 With a busy weekend ahead, I will not be at Storrs North tonight for UConn/Michigan. UConn should have a massive Boston home-court advantage and should win. I've said this feels like another special year for the program, and I think the Final Four in Detroit is a fair expectation.
🏈 I hope Joe Fagnano gets another shot. That was rough… his defense did not help him Thursday night.
🏈 Would give up a 2nd-round pick for Derrick Henry in a heartbeat.
🏈 Browns/Saints, Cowboys/Colts, Bronco/Panthers, Lions/Dolphins, Rams/Commanders, Giants/Eagles, Jets/Chiefs - those are the six 1 PM games Sunday. As a Pats fan, if you need to punt on an NFL window this season, for the sake of some late-season apple picking or other fall activity with the family, this is the one.
🏀 Celtics are more fun to watch without Jaylen Brown. There, I said it.
❓❓ Not a big sports card guy anymore. But as a kid? Obsessed for a few years. For current sports card people - what’s the play for boxes of old cards? I found a couple hundred cards I had at my parents’ house, and I’m not sure what the play is. Is there an app I can use to scan each one and see what’s valuable? Is there a place that will do that for me? Need some help.
⚾ The only Red Sox rumor that has me mildly interested is the idea of signing Brandon Lowe away from the Pirates. It turns Curtis Mead or Caleb Durbin into a utility player; I get it. But Lowe has legit 30-homerun power, and this offense is in desperate need of that. But because Breslow already traded for Mead, I doubt it happens. I’m prepared to be massively underwhelmed by the Sox’ offseason.
“Unexplained neurological symptoms.” Shit. Sending good thoughts to TreVeyon Henderson. Scary stuff.
That feels like enough Stack for this week. BIG Flag Football Super Bowl for the 5-6 Chargers tomorrow. Clear eyes, full heart, can’t lose. Good luck to Chelmsford High Friday Night in the first round of the MIAA Football Playoffs.
And good luck with all your bets this weekend. Back on the Barstool Blog with some final Breeders’ Cup thoughts and a big return at Belmont on Saturday.
Thanks for reading. And watching.
Coleman can send Dickens over to pick up your cards.
Mazz never seems to learn. I like the guy for the most part but man, learn from your!
Good luck with the flag football!