Friday Four-Pack 12.12.25
Pats vs. Bills and Pats' fans are all the way back! It's okay to be an angry Red Sox fan. An exclusive with NYRA's CEO. NFL Picks. #MutStack150
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
Congrats to MutStack on the 150th Edition of the MutStack newsletter. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, MutStack now holds the claim to the longest-running newsletter with the least amount of followers. Quite the accomplishment for Mutt. Here’s to another 150 newsletters, Here! Here!
Note from the founder of MutStack.com, Mut:
Subscribers up 47% year over year, boss. I love every one of them. Growing every day. That’s thanks in large part to the clockwork consistency of the Four-Pack being published every Friday, rain or shine. Employed or unemployed self-employed. The new owner has boosted subs, too. So thanks for that and thanks for the kind words, Dave. #MutStack150
This brings me so much joy.
Yes, I love that the Patriots are home dogs against the Bills this week. Does my brain think it’s some sign of disrespect or a message that Vegas hates the Patriots? Not at all. But my heart does.
My brain says Vegas made the Pats the underdog because they know if they hang Josh Allen and the Bills as the dog, they’re going to get bludgoned with Bills money. People like Josh Allen and they want to bet on Josh Allen. Josh Allen as a dog? Probably an auto-bet for a lot of gamblers. The line is more about the respect for Buffalo.
Looking at betting splits on DraftKings (very useful tool IMO), they show exactly 50% of the spread bets on both the Pats and the Bills. Even Stephen. The total money is 53%-47%, Bills. That would be well over 60% if they made the Bills the dog. The moneyline? Bills at plus money, again, would have been pummelled. Vegas got it right.
And I love the local reaction to it. I’ve heard no fewer than three different Boston radio segments on it this week. People are obsessed with this point-spread and what it means.
It’s been this, just all week.
That old THEY HATE US CAUSE THEY AIN’T US is bubbling to the surface. If we’re being honest, I’ve felt it too. It’s not quite going to war with the NFL over the Wells Report, but it’s making me feel…something.
And after Bailey Zappe and Jerod Mayo, Matt Patricia and Alex Van Pelt, it feels good. I have long enjoyed and envied Josh Allen from afar. Absolute stud quarterback. Now, I must hate him. Those are the rules.
Biggest Patriots regular-season game since when? Someone will tell me in the comments. I guess Mac beating Buffalo 3-0 back in December 2021? Am I missing one? Does that even count? I certainly don’t remember caring about that game days out like I have this one.
The Pats and Mike Vrabel are acting like this is not a big deal. I don’t believe them. Vrabel is one of the best underdog coaches in recent NFL history for a reason - he thrives on his team having a chip on its shoulder.
The fans are showing that chip this week. And even though I know in my brain the line has nothing to do with respect, my heart won’t go along with it. Feels like the whole region is with me.
It’s December. The Patriots play in the biggest NFL game of the week. And as a fanbase, we’re creating a way that someone has disrespected our team and us.
Pats fans are officially all the way back.
Meanwhile, no matter what people tell you, it’s okay to be mad at the Red Sox. Some MutStack Exclusive comments from the CEO of the New York Racing Association. NFL Picks for Week 15 and a busy MutStack notes.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
You are reading the 150th (consecutive) edition of the Friday Four-Pack newsletter here at MutStack.com. Grammar and spelling mistakes in each one.
Celebrate this noteworthyish milestone by hitting that SUBSCRIBE button. Just like the 1st edition of the Four-Pack, it’s still free.
Also, a chance to prove Portnoy wrong.
On the Red Sox missing out on Schwarber and Alonso…
I promise to eat that piece of paper if the Red Sox sign Kyle Tucker.
On NYRA’s plan to slow down CAWs…
This week was the annual racing symposium in Arizona. It started with the head of the tote security system (tote is the system that takes and processes all the bets in American horse racing) declining to answer questions about tote security and oversight. It ended with a presentation that suggested video games & online games might be the future of growing the sport, and gave us this great quote: “Is American Pharaoh in a mini skirt going to solve all of our problems? No, but it’s a great start.”
Somewhere in the middle was a discussion that horse players should be paying attention to.
On Tuesday, there was a panel moderated by Pat Cummings, the executive director of Mike Repole’s National Thoroughbred Alliance. Pat has been a proponent of many changes in racing that help players, including penny breakage. Most recently, he has focused on how to level the playing field for retail players in the daily battle against the issues caused by Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups.
As part of that panel, New York Racing Association CEO Dave O’Rourke announced that NYRA tracks would be cutting out CAW players with one minute to post in all pools, beginning in January. This is the most significant step any track or state has taken since, well, NYRA cut out the CAWs from the win pools with two minutes to post four years ago.
“This volatility has gotten a little out of hand. So let’s put some guardrails in,” he said.
Why do I think this is important? The most negative impact of the CAWs on players like me and you is the late odds drops and reduced payouts. Betting a horse going into the gate at 4-1 and watching him go off at 2-1 sucks. Just as painful is betting an exacta that is projected to pay $40 and then it pays $20. This happens because the CAWs bet at the last second. They do that because their algorithms and models heavily factor the price of each horse. The longer you wait to bet, the more accurate that price is. And because they’re given direct access to the tote system, they can literally fire off hundreds of bets in just a second, right as the race is about to go off, shifting the odds so that you don’t see the results of that until after the race is run. It’s a terrible optic for racing and tough to explain to new players.
I give horseplayers on social media a lot of credit for pointing out these instances, and I 100% believe it helped lead to NYRA's move. As did the push from my horse-playing/horse-owning boss, who has the most prominent social media voice in horse racing.
The idea seems to be that, by cutting them off at 1 MTP, those drastic changes and reduced payoffs will theoretically occur less often. You’re taking away the ‘last-second’ advantage from the CAWs, at least as it relates to hundreds of bets a second.
Will this change have a significant impact? I have no clue. But I give NYRA credit for trying something, as the rest of the industry sits on their collective asses and watches the sport die a slow, painful, computer-led death.
Track Ownership and CAWs. The communication on this issue from almost the entire industry - tracks, media, and ADWs - has been embarrassing. The game has changed, and it takes two years for people to really admit it.
Even with CAW coverage, it isn’t very clear. Industry media publication Bloodhorse wrote back in October about NYRA and 1/ST Racing’s ‘ownership’ of the Elite CAW team. Huh? That’s led to horseplayers like me wondering, what the hell does that mean? Do they profit off the CAWs winning and retail players losing? Do they share in profits? Part of the CAW problem is the industry's inability to explain any of this to the players and make it make sense.
NYRA’s CEO, David O’Rourke, was front and center this week, answering questions on the panel in Arizona and then on Steve Byk’s show on Wednesday. It seemed to me he realizes how big an issue this has become.
So I took a shot and emailed what I assumed was his NYRA email address on Wednesday, asking him what this ownership meant. He texted me back late Wednesday night, and we talked by phone for a few minutes on Thursday.
I asked him to try to explain what ‘ownership’ means, because it’s not clear to many of us—his answers below, in a MutStack exclusive.
O’Rourke: “It’s nothing more than a premier tier of an ADW that we own a piece of,” he said. “It’s like an ADW for CAW players.’
Okay, but does NYRA benefit directly from their success at the windows - success that often can impact the retail player?
O’Rourke: “No, no, not at all. Yeah, not at all. If we had not gotten involved with Elite, we would have done our own version of it, like “NYRA Pro.” If I don’t have it, then I don’t really have as much say in it. And I’m not really sure that’s the right thing to do. But optically, yeah, it hasn’t played out well.”
I agree with him - it’s a bad look - even if it’s just their involvement on the platform that these VIP/CAWs play. It seems like a pretty basic answer, and maybe I’m just being naive, but I believe him. But the industry has explained it very poorly. And as he said, it’s an ugly, confusing optic.
I asked O’Rourke about the move to cut off CAWs at 1 MTP and what he hopes is the result.
O’Rourke: “Less volatility. Nobody’s going to be able to put a bunch of bets in when someone else can’t. But it’s not going to solve the problem of density on certain bets, like the exacta, right away….I don’t want to disappoint anyone; it’s probably going to take a year or two. It’s the fan base, the core fan base, that’s our major stakeholder here. And we’ve got to start giving them what they’re asking for.
“The volatility is one thing that’s like, enough is enough. It’s some sort of weird game now where you’ve got to project where it’s going…and it’s gotten worse in the last year…”
What’s next? This is just one track, taking away part of just one of the advantages for CAWs. Racing’s next step needs to be finding a way to reward retail customers. The whole rebate conversation is a headache because, depending on where you live, THAT affects your rebate. Certain states (TN, FLA) are set up better than, say, Massachusetts. The reason it works that way is a topic that’s even more boring than the one you're currently reading about. But why can’t tracks and ADWs have Player Rewards programs that offer free bets? Sportsbooks offer players free bets all the time—even free bets on their birthday. Maybe offer retail players more CAW-free pools. The 1 MTP is not enough.
What’s Next Bonus Round. O’Rourke and NYRA hope that in 2026, NY will pass a law legalizing fixed-odds wagering on horse racing. Any addition to the stale-ass horse racing betting menu would be welcome, especially one that looks like sports betting customers are used to. Let’s say Aunt Alice (Yes, I’ve already picked out the first name for my first horse, assuming she’s a filly) is +150. You bet her at +150, and guess what - that price is locked in, just like a sports bet.
Imagine a world where there are prop bets on these races? Or the ability to parlay two or three fixed-odds win bets on a race card? How about year-round odds on the Kentucky Derby? HOW HAS THIS NOT HAPPENED YET???
Talking to O’Rourke gave me confidence that at least one major stakeholder in racing gets it - that he understands it’s time to level the playing field here.
Is it enough? Probably not? CAWs can still make up to 6 bets per second, the same way any player can, inside that one-minute cutoff. It will have a much bigger impact if other tracks follow NYRA’s lead on this, but I’m not confident that they will. More guardrails will eventually have to be put in, I think. I’ll be curious how the CAWs respond.
But credit to O’Rourke and NYRA for at least trying, something the rest of the industry has refused to do. I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out in January.
On your Week 15 NFL Picks…
Week 14 Results: 1-2 | ATD Vidal ❌ | Chargers ML ✅
On the Season: 17-25 | ATD bets 3 for 14 | ML Dog 5 for 7
Whether you played Kincaid or Knox overs, you cashed. Tyrod Taylor’s injury sank the Jets play. Where did that Steelers offense come from?
Another ML winner. They are saving my sanity and bankroll.
Odds as of Friday morning, from DraftKings Sportsbook
The Side
CHIEFS -5.5 VS CHARGERS (-112) I’ve read 56 blogs about how this is the end for the Chiefs and Mahomes coming off their ugly loss to the Texans. One place I look at says that as of Thursday morning, 75% (!!!) of the bets have come in on the Chargers plus the points. I am happy to bet KC up to this -5.5 number. Did you watch the Chargers on Monday night? They needed a million things to go right against a broken Philly offense to get the win. Now they’re on a short week, Herbert’s hand is still banged up, Joe Alt is still hurt, and they're going to frigid Kansas City (18° at kickoff) against a wounded KC team fighting for their lives. I have to bet KC here. Note per Action Network, teams on short rest facing the Chiefs and Mahomes are 4-19 SU and 8-15 ATS.
The Total
STEELERS VS. DOLPHINS UNDER 42.5 (-110) A quick glance at the forecast shows Monday night’s 8 PM feel-like temp in Pittsburgh as 9°. On one side, you have Tua and his 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS records in weather colder than 40°, losing those games by almost 20 points. Over the last four weeks, no team has played more slowly than Miami, according to FTN’s Snap/sec stat. On the other side, ancient Aaron Rodgers has to play in the same cold weather, and PIT has not played super fast all year. Ugly game in cold weather that screams under. Note, I think this total comes down over the weekend and bet it on Thursday AM.
The Prop
ISAIAH LIKELY O37.5 REC YARDS (-114). Not over-thinking this. Will play the over on Mark Andrews, too, if he’s healthy (glute injury). And if he’s not, Likley should clear this number easily against a defense giving up almost 100 yards per game to opposing TEs. Will ladder this on DK, too.
The ATD
JAYDEN REED +400. I think GB can win, but they’ll have to throw, and Reed was super-involved in his first game back off injury.
The ML Dog Mut Says Is Barking
PATRIOTS +100 VS BILLS. Because of course. Mike Vrabel is 6-0 off the bye. The Bills' WRs have struggled all year, and Vrabel’s defense will have a plan for Allen in Co. in what should be a wild Gillette Stadium atmosphere. Homer pick? A little.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
➡️ Credit to DraftKings for this ‘Promo” they’re running this week. I got an email telling me I could win an iPad if I just logged in and checked my ‘stats’ for 2025. DK keeps track of your wins and losses and presents them in a very easy-to-read chart.
For 99% of you reading this (and the author), betting on sports is supposed to be a fun recreational hobby. Seeing your + or - for the year instead of just guessing how you’re doing is a good thing. It’s even more helpful to keep track of your bets yourself to see where you’re doing well and where you might have some leaks. Maybe you’re crushing it in props but getting buried on sides. Or maybe there’s one sport where you see you’re really doing well. Looking at stats might lead you to change how you bet, rather than robotically firing away at the same stuff every week.
But even the raw numbers DK has are worth looking at, and credit to them for giving people some motivation to go take a peek. If you’re a DK customer, check your email. I’m guessing the offer is in there. Or on the app.
💰 Since you’re wondering, I’m down for 2025 on DK. I don’t get credit for giving Dave that 77K winner on the Packers back in September. Lifetime, I’m well in the black, thanks to a few nice DFS scores in football and golf.
⚾ Before the Red Sox missed out on Alonso and Schwarber, we sat down for Episode 5 of Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Thanks to the new producers, Nick and Mac, for making us all look and sound better. Watch on YouTube or listen (and subscribe) wherever you get your podcasts.
⚾ About 10 minutes after the Pete Alonso to Baltimore news broke, I wanted to hear the reaction on Boston sports radio. 98.5 The Sports Hub was in the middle of what I’m guessing was a scheduled/sponsored interview with a Patriots player, so I bailed after six seconds. Jones and Keefe were doing their “Grab Bag” Segment over on WEEI, which, like, don’t you just bail out of and take angry Red Sox calls? Radio is immediate and local, and they’re doing what is essentially a podcast segment, not a radio segment. I bailed from that after about 11 seconds.
⚾ The Red Sox week was so bad that it chased radio voice Will Flemming off of Twitter! The old, “I’m all set with this platform.” I like Will, but he has to realize people were mad at the team, not him. He’ll eventually come back, right?
🗓️ Day 17 post Kirk Minihane Show. Greg Pohler sent me a disgusting DM on Twitter. The KMS Fan Gossip chat is COOKING 👀👀. The guy who came to check The Viking’s oil heater is a BIG KMS fan who is upset the show is gone. I miss Cully. And Justin.
🎂 Next week, my older son will turn 13. And I’ll have a teenager in the house. It’s just a number, and it should not affect me, but the idea makes me feel old as hell.
🧟 On the other hand, he’s been binging Stranger Things, and I can constantly hear him laughing in the other room, which is pretty great.
🏀 I’m not going to jinx it, so I’ll just say it - this UConn basketball team is special.
🏈 UConn’s QB recruit, Bo Polston, has a perfect name for a quarterback. Like, something out of a football movie. I love him already. Bo Polston.
📉 Another brutal weekly for Sports Radio WEEI. Full fall ratings come out the week of Christmas, and we’ll have the detailed report and reaction here two weeks from now. Subscribe now so you don’t miss it.
I think that’s enough Stack for today.
As I briefly mentioned above, this is indeed #MutStack150. That’s 150 straight weeks of publishing. Thank you to everyone who reads, shares, comments, scrolls quickly, usually unopens, whatever. Most newsletters die out in 90 days, and I'm proud to publish this 150th edition. Thanks to My Boss, Dave, for buying MutStack and giving me a much bigger platform, both here and on the Barstool Blog. And for allowing this Four-Pack to continue. I love writing and producing it.
I say this every week, and I mean it - thank you for reading. And watching.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Go Pats. And Go UConn at Texas.
Mut you need to make a trip to Gulfstream Park!!
Love the Jayden Reed pick! Go Pack