Friday Four-Pack 12.13.24

Belichick goes Back to School. ESPN is touting its touts. The Red Sox show signs of life. NFL Picks and much more!

Let’s start with the good stuff.

Bill Belichick sounds happy to be the new head coach of the University of North Carolina Tar Heels Football Team. At least that’s how it came across in his introductory press conference on Thursday.

Football is more interesting with Belichick involved, so we have that going for us. It’s even more interesting once you read Seth Wickersham’s in-depth piece on Bill’s move to UNC—more on that in a second.

Mike Lombardi is going with Bill to Chapel Hill as the program's general manager. That means he won’t be sucking up to defending Belichick in various media hits every week. I’ll take that as a positive.

Um….Carolina Blue is a Hall of Fame color.

And sure, this whole thing is fascinating. He’s one of the best defensive minds in the history of the sport. He’s the greatest NFL coach of all time. Following his success and/or failure at the college level will be a must-see and should provide hours and hours of content over the next three to five seasons. So we have all of that.

But how the hell is this guy not back in professional football?

Selfishly, like many of you, I wanted Bill back in the NFL.

I wanted to see how he might build out one more run at a Super Bowl. Or how he’d react as he closed in on Don Shula’s all-time wins record. Or how he might handle a game in New England against his former team.

But we’re not getting that. Instead, we have to settle for Chapel Bill shirts and showdowns between Belichick and Boston College.

So how did we get here? One theme of the Wickersham piece referenced above is Bill Belichick not being a fan of what the NFL has become.

It was because, in the words of a confidant, Belichick is "disgusted" in what he believes the NFL had become.

"This is a big f--- you to the NFL," another Belichick confidant says.

I’m calling bullshit.

If Jerry Jones whispered to Belichick through back channels that he was interested in bringing him in as the next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, Bill would have no problem with the NFL. If the Jacksonville Jaguars told Bill he could take that 400-page football manifesto of his and run wild with the Jags organization for the next five years, he’d be wearing a teal-colored Jaguars Starter Jacket in a few weeks when the NFL season ends.

But those things didn’t happen—in part because no one wanted to give Bill complete control. And that’s what Bill wants. Maybe he feels he’s earned that after coaching football for a million years, I get it. But this idea that Bill was willing to just coach and not have his own GM in place at the NFL level is just silly. From the Belichick-friendly Wickersham piece, which tries to spin the narrative of Bill The Coach, just the disgust Bill has for the Atlanta Falcons GM Terry Fontenot.

"Listening to Fontenot discuss drafting systems last January, as if he knew it all, bothered him," a Belichick confidant says.

At North Carolina, he’ll be in complete control of the football operation. He’ll have his lackey buddy Lombardi as the GM, but Bill can walk all over him and he knows it. His age - and the lack of front-office success in his final years in New England - made the chances of him getting absolute power in the NFL close to nil.

With the NFL offers non-existent, Bill was forced to look for college opportunities.

From Jeff Howe’s story on Belichick going back to school.

“(Belichick) burned a lot of bridges over his career,” a high-ranking team executive said.

“If he wanted to coach again, he almost had to take this job,” another team executive said.

This is much closer to the truth than the ‘Bill was sick of the NFL’ stuff. He could have sat out another year, done more media, and had more fun with this 24-year-old girlfriend at the Nantucket Holiday Stroll…but he wanted to coach. And the NFL did not appear to be an option.

And a year from now, we’ll probably look back and say there are a bunch of really dumb NFL teams that should have at least entertained the idea of bringing in Belichick. The Cowboys, in particular, felt like a place where Bill might have been able to win right away. But the idea of a Jerry Jones/Stephen Jones/Bill Belichick collab is a tough sell—that’s a lot of ego, even for an NFL team.

I don’t know if this was Bill’s ‘Plan B.’ Or ‘Plan C.’ He can make all the jokes he wants about his first words being “Beat Duke,” but this was not ‘Plan A.’ ‘Plan A’ was being back in the NFL, getting those 15 wins to pass Don Shula’s all-time wins record, and showing Bob Kraft he was an idiot for firing him. I was hoping for that too. But ‘Plan A’ was not in the cards for Belichick—or for fans like me hoping for one more NFL run.

Rather for Bill - and the football collective community - it’s ‘Plan UNC.’

Meanwhile, the Red Sox made a big move. ESPN gets into the sports betting tout business and people are not happy. Plus, we have mediocre NFL Picks and plenty of media notes.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the first big move of the Red Sox offseason…

It was a good trade.

Dealing four prospects for White Sox stud Garrett Crochet was a good move. Thanks to Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox minor league system is much improved. The idea here is not to collect prospects and store them away like rare bottles of bourbon: you build up your system to then trade for a guy like Crochet.

I’ll like the deal a little less if he walks away after two seasons when he’s set to become a free agent, but the trade makes sense. Make no mistake, they got a really good pitcher.

The overreaction from Jared Carrabis and others is a little much, but I get it. Once they missed out on Juan Soto and Max Fried, you had to wonder what the hell was going on. This move should give fans SOME hope that the team plans on being competitive over the next few seasons by trading for a player who can help you now.

But if this is it? What if this is the big move and there’s no Corbin Burnes or Alex Bregman or Teoscar Hernandez?

Failure—That’s what this offseason would be. And it would go against all the team’s whispering to local media that this year would be different.

They fell $100 million short in the Soto negotiations. They were way off on Fried. Some reports say the same about their pursuit of Burnes.

You can like the trade for the Red Sox and still question whether or not they’re really willing to spend like other big market teams. Given their recent shoddy track record of spending, combined with the used car salesman act of Sox CEO Sam Kennedy - I am not giving this team any benefit of the doubt. And neither should do.

Get fans pumped up by telling insiders “This offseason will be different” ✅
Good trade for a stud pitcher ✅
Any sign the team can close a big-time free agent and spend ❌❌❌

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On ESPN misleading the sports betting public…

2.3 MILLION VIEWS

This is not about Erin Kate Dolan. I hope she hits all her bets and gets filthy rich. #goeringo

This is about ESPN touting a tout and being very misleading about it.

Obviously, that’s a tremendous record you see there in that post from ESPN Public Relations. But it’s just “NFL Bets Bets.” If you’re an experienced gambler, that might make sense. But to some random ESPN viewer/sports fan who doesn’t know the difference, you might not realize that ESPN is cherry-picking a certain category of bet to make the numbers look good. In this case REALLY good…68.8% good.

So good that, ironically, she might get herself limited at ESPNBet and other retail sportsbooks for winning too much!

ESPN does not provide stats for their talent picks, so we have to rely on the X.com account Tracking Best Bets for stats, as the account details all of the “best bets” made on ESPN Bet Live. Those numbers show Dolan’s numbers as good, but not great, when you factor in all of her bets and not just the NFL Best Bets.

ESPN picked the numbers that made Dolan look like a sports betting savant.

98.5 The Sports Hub’s Dan Lifshatz was maybe the most vocal voice in the sports betting space in calling out ESPN. Lifshatz hosts a weekly sports betting show with Kendra Middleton in addition to a sports betting podcast for The Sports Hub.

Bill Speros is right. The Mass Gaming Commission - and the gambling community at large - would go NUTS if Barstool did this. Or if their gambling partner, DraftKings, did this for a major Barstool personality.

If ESPN wants to start posting the records of all their talent, go for it. But to hand-pick the record of one set of selections - that honesty, we have no idea if they’re actually correct or not - and promote them through their public relations team as some sort of actual news…it’s a bad look.

I’m sure the ESPN news team prides itself on reporting their stories accurately. If they want to be in the sports betting business, I don’t think it’s asking too much to get their numbers right there as well.

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On four other quick Belichick to UNC thoughts…

• I’m not rooting for or against Belichick. As I said this week on Andrew Callahan’s Pats Interference Podcast, I don’t think it will work because I don’t believe in his ability to relate to teenagers who can just jump into a transfer portal anytime they want to. But like everyone else, I’ll be locked in to see how it plays out.

• I don’t believe this is a one-and-done for Belichick, even if the reports of his buyout dropping from $10 million to $1 million on 6/1/25 are true.

• Bill is going to get a monster ovation at the Wasabi Fenway Bowl when his Tar Heels take on my UConn Huskies, isn’t he?

• College coaches use NFL alumni to help recruit players. Right now, the hottest UNC alum in the NFL is Drake Maye. Just this week, while playing video games on a live stream, Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter was asked about being drafted by the Patriots next season. "Trav and Drake Maye? That'd be tough!" Hunter said, seemingly approving of the possibility.
  
  So…how does it work when the fired Patriots coach (Belichick) wants the current Patriots QB (Maye) to help him recruit a 5-star-QB, while the QB’s employer (Kraft) is the guy who fired him (again, Belichick) and might have cost him his last chance at an NFL job last offseason by reportedly telling the Atlanta Falcons “he didn't trust Bill Belichick and that he was"not worthy of his trust.” Awkward!

I think I’ve emptied the tank on Bill Belichick thoughts for the week.

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On our Week 15 NFL Picks…Presented by Sharp Hunter

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Week 14: 1-2 /// Season Record: 21-21 (50%) 🤢🤢🤢

Not. Very. Sharp. Another crappy week. And if Aaron Jones gets two more carries, we’re under .500 for the season. I’ll have to start tailing Erin Dolan’s picks if I don’t heat up here soon.

We did move to 11-5 over the last 5+ weeks in the Sharp Hunter/Betting Life analysis. So there’s that. Where is my press release, ESPN?

The Pick
🏈 BILLS +2.5 AT LIONS (+100 DraftKings)

The simple handicap of this game is that anytime you can bet on the most talented quarterback in the NFL getting points, you should probably do it. And so I will.

The longer handicap is that not only do you get Josh Allen plus the points on Sunday, but you also get him in a plus matchup. The Lions love to blitz and Allen has been awesome against any blitz this year, to the tune of 14 TDs and just 2 INTs. Allen - as he showed last week against the Rams - is also a major weapon in the running game. Detroit’s defense has been gashed on the ground by opposing QBs this year - they’ve allowed eight games of 23+ rushing yards against QBs. Over the last four games, they’re giving up over 34 yards/game on the ground to opposing signal callers. Allen’s rushing prop is as high as 40.5 yards at some places.

The Bills’ offense is getting healthy (Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid all tracking to play) so Allen should have all his weapons for this one.

The Lions are good and their coach is aggressive. On paper, this is a game you don’t have to have money on to be excited about it. But if Josh Allen is getting points, I’m betting on him in what might end up being a Super Bowl preview.

The Total
🏈 STEELERS AT EAGLES UNDER 43 (-110, various books)

I almost ended up taking the Steelers and the points here, but the total is just as playable.

On offense, we know the Eagles want to run the football: their 53.7% rush rate in neutral-pace situations is No. 1 in the NFL. With a lead of a TD or more, that rush rate skyrockets to over 70%. For most of the season, the Pittsburgh offense has used the deep ball to power their offense. But with George Pickens looking doubtful for this one, we can expect their 49.7% neutral-pace situation rush rate (No. 4 in the NFL) to be even higher.

The Steelers offense has struggled in the Red Zone this season - they show the fourth-worst TD/Red Zone trip numbers in the league. More FGs are good for the under.

The Eagles (#4) and the Steelers (#8) both sit in the Top 10 DVOA defensively.

Most of the money (80%+) has come in on the over, yet we’ve seen this line actually come down a tick since Sunday Night. I’m happy to bet against the public here.

The Prop
🏈 Tyler Lockett O2.5 rec (+120 DK)

He’s been phased out with the emergence of JSN in Seattle, but he has topped this number eight times this season. After seeing just one target last week, this number is just too low and I’ll grab the +120. Note that WR3s have cooked against the Packers the last four weeks, averaging over five rec/game.

Sunday Morning Updates:

Still very excited to bet on Josh Allen this afternoon.
If you think the Cowboys have given up after the loss Monday, then Car -2.5 is very playable.
Seattle as a home dog …
Took over 25.5 REC yards on Dyami Brown (WAS)
Trey McBride set up to have a good day vs. the Pats. James Connor, too.

Good luck today and in your fantasy football playoff matchups!

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On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

➡️ Your must-read sports betting story of the week comes from the UK’s Independent publication. It details a New Jersey man who bet $15 million over four years via DraftKings. The total included $942,232.32 that belonged to her and their two children.

Staggering numbers, to be sure. And a cautionary tale about responsible gambling.

Two things stand out that I wanted to comment on here.

Lisa D’Alessandro says her husband funded his habit by maxing out her credit cards and draining their young childrens’ savings accounts, which were funded entirely by gifts they had gotten for Christmas, their birthdays, and their baptisms, according to the lawsuit filed Thursday and obtained by The Independent.

In what world are we allowing people to use credit cards to fund sports betting accounts? This practice benefits ONLY the sports books and the credit card companies, who charge outrageous interest rates on purchases. The United States should end this practice immediately.

Still, by 2022, DraftKings had upgraded Mdallo to “Onyx Elite level status,” and the VIP hosts began offering him, among other things, a free vacation and a “suite of high-end Apple products,” as well as more prosaic items such as a set of DraftKings-branded whiskey glasses, according to the complaint.

If you’re a losing sports bettor, you get offered vacations. If you’re a winning sports bettor, your account gets limited and you can only bet pennies. Or worse, the sportsbook just closes your account and you can’t bet at all. The former is a predatory practice that, again, needs some potential reform. The latter is just a sad reality - commercial sportsbooks don’t want you to win long-term. And if you do, expect to have your account limited.

➡️ A week after writing about the future of the Red Sox radio and TV booths, I am confident that we got it right in this space last week.

And if you’re adding a few new voices, that adds to the negotiation timeline. I expect Dave O’Brien as the NESN PBP guy, Will Flemming as the WEEI PBP guy, and former players working both TV and radio. But when do we get an official announcement? I have no idea.

Heard from a few people who would know that indeed, the Red Sox are working out the details of which former players will be part of the rotation that will work back and forth between the NESN TV booth and the WEEI radio booth. Those players will work with Dave on the TV side and from all indications Will on the radio side.

Lou Merloni doing more games on TV has a trickle-down effect. One name that could end up doing more radio in 2025 is Will Middlebrooks. But the holdup in any official announcement on all of this is more tied to Lou’s schedule and what it might look like, and then locking in the rest of the color commentators from there.

➡️ WEEI will still air the games, but the Red Sox are taking over the radio booth for 2025 and beyond. If WEEI wants to strengthen their Sox coverage, they should consider hiring 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Matt McCarthy. He does not have the brand of say, Jared Carrabis, but you can tell he loves baseball and is equipped to talk about it. It was evident when he had to fill in on Felger and Mazz in the hours after the Crochet trade. Besides Lou and Rob Bradford, you don’t get the sense many WEEI hosts are as interested in baseball as someone like McCarthy.

➡️ I can tend to get a little too inside Boston Radio here, I get that. If you like that stuff and old WEEI/Sports Hub gossip, then I’d suggest you take a few minutes and watch former Dale and Holley producer and now Felger and Mazz producer James ‘Jimmy’ Stewart from this week’s F & M “Off Air Show.” A tour-de-force of inside sports radio. Jimmy is threatening to write a book about “The Fall of WEEI.” It would make for a good read.

➡️ Thanks to Boston Media Critic for grabbing audio Friday morning of Fred Toucher saying that once WZLX fired his former co-host Rich Shertenlieb and went back to music in the mornings, the ratings went up. We’ll know for sure in a few weeks, but it won’t be a surprise.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Back here Sunday morning to update the NFL ideas - had family commitments where I could not do that last week.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.