Friday Four-Pack 12.19.25
Bad week for Mike Vrabel. The Mookie Betts trade was Red Sox foreshadowing. Netflix and Barstool. My NFL Picks have sucked. MutStack Notes!
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
There has been a lot of drama, hearsay, and speculation regarding the future of MutStack.com and whether MutStack will or won’t join Netflix. While most negotiations with Netflix remain confidential, I can say there is almost no price worth putting MutStack behind a paywall. The future is too bright for this shooting star. So I’m relieved to say MutStack will remain totally free for the foreseeable future. Tell your friends. Tell your family. It’s not too late to join the MutStack revolution. And the revolution will remain free forever.
Note from the founder of MutStack.com, Mut:
Wow. This is the first I’m hearing about this. I thought we had a deal. And look, after Dave and the fine folks at Netflix see what they missed out on below with an exclusive MutFlix Trailer, I won’t be offended if they come back to the negotiating table. My door remains wide, wide open.
Netflix is a monster. And I would have written about this four months ago, so, as a Barstool employee, I’ll do the same here to begin this week’s newsletter.
This week, Netflix added three Barstool Shows to their lineup - they’ll have exclusive video streaming rights for Pardon My Take, The Ryen Russillo Show, and Spittin’ Chiclets—three of the biggest and most popular sports podcasts on the planet. Congrats to everyone involved. The audio feeds remain the same, but the show’s video formats will be available only on Netflix.
And this is obviously a huge deal. It’s a big commitment from Netflix and a significant platform for those shows and Barstool - Netflix has about 300 million subscribers globally.
Netflix had previously worked out similar deals with iHeart and The Ringer for the video content of their popular podcasts. They’re making it so that, basically, you have to have a Netflix account. And not just because you want to watch PMT or Stranger Things or Moneyball, but because of events like tonight.
If I did not have Netflix, I would have subscribed today to watch Jake Paul fight Anthony Joshua. Like, I’m writing this Friday morning, and I can’t believe this fight is happening in 12 hours. I am sitting here laughing at my basement/office desk at the thought of it.
Anthony Joshua is a legit heavyweight. As recently as four years ago, he was freakin’ unified heavyweight champion of the world. A month ago, Paul was preparing to fight a guy who weighed 135 pounds. Joshua weighed in at 234 for this fight - about 30 pounds heavier than Paul.
I’m old, so I don’t know much about Paul. I know he was a child actor. Now he’s a social media star. My kids loved his Prime drink for a while, but it doesn’t seem as cool now. I do know his fight with Mike Tyson was terrible because I watched it.
And because I’m old, I hate that this is what boxing has become. UFC now rules, and because boxing has no leadership and everyone is out for themselves, the sport has crumbled in popularity: in a lot of ways, like horse racing. But I was one of those fans watching every Saturday HBO card (shoutout Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik) and buying big PPVs. Shit, I went to Vegas for two big fights, including Wilder/Fury.
Those days are long gone, and I think Joshua destroys Paul tonight. I refuse to have FOMO over this, so I’ll be locked in tonight because it's an event. Hopefully, it starts before midnight.
Barstool does big events, too - Golf, Survivor, Dozen Trivia, KMS Basketball - wouldn’t those events play well on Netflix? It’s easy to imagine it down the road.
What’s NOT next for Barstool and Netflix? MutFlix, based on Dave’s note today. I thought we had a deal. Even had a trailer ready to go. Just press play.
Can you imagine how many people would stop taking melatonin and using sound machines to fall asleep?
“Honey, he’s talking CAWs again, put on MutFlix so we can go to sleep.”
Forget Netflix and Chill, it’s MutFlix and ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
I’m holding out hope for Phase 2 of the Barstool/Netflix deal.
Shoutout to the talented Minifan David in Maryland for producing this very important preview. It would have been great to work with David on MutFlix.
When I was thanking various people here last week for all their support over the first 150 editions of this newsletter, Kirk and the Minifans should have been highlighted separately. Without their support, there is no MutStack. And I’m not working for Barstool. The Minifans are by far the most loyal fans in the world, and they were Day 1 subscribers. And since Day 1, supporters. Well, besides Montante, who told me this week he’s not a subscriber.
So thank you to David and all the Minifans. Just 26 days until tickets go on sale for Laconia. We get a show that day, and I guess a show announcement? Can’t wait.
Meanwhile, it was a bad week for Mike Vrabel. The Mookie Betts trade should have been a fair warning for Sox fans. NFL Picks have been terrible. Monster MutStack Notes.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #151.
Sigh. No MutFlix…for now.
But like Dave said, no paywall here. Free, free, free.
So hit the blue button. It guarantees good tidings.
On a bad week for Mike Vrabel…
First, some good news for the HC of the NEP.
They made him a SNACK in Madden 2026. My kids have bailed on Fortnite for Madden Franchise rebuilds, and when Vrabel came up on the screen last week, I gasped. They made him a male model. Blue Steel. All of it. Handome is happening, to quote Thrillride.
As far as Vrabel’s week…not a fan. First, you had the end of the half sequence vs. Buffalo, when they seemed to settle for a field goal rather than try to score a TD. Going against the best player in the NFL (Josh Allen, duh), you'd better score as many points as you possibly can. Of course, when Vrabel’s defense cratered in the second half, those points would have been very useful.
Then you had this Monday morning, when he brought up the officials once again. He can couch it all he wants and try to spin it like he’s not blaming the refs, but he is. Turns out he got the holding stats wrong. Maybe he has a gripe with the PI, but the refs weren't the reason the Patriots lost this game—the defense and Drake Maye not playing well in the second half were.
In this same interview on WEEI, Vrabel commented that “You can only run so many double passes that gain 13 yards, you know? I mean, that's cool, and it's cute, but you can only run so many of those before - again, you can only dial up so many of those.”
I mean, that seems like a direct shot at OC Josh McDaniels. A few times this season, when a reporter or host has tried to give Josh credit, Vrabel has deflected to someone else. I guess I don’t get the ball-busting of a guy who took the Patriots from 30th in scoring offense a year ago to 7th in 2025. Maybe the Krafts did push Josh onto the staff, but it’s worked, even though Vrabel occasionally throws shade his way.
Hopefully, the focus at Gillette Stadium this week was on fixing whatever the offensive plan has been in the second half of games.
First half Patriots Offense in 2025:
0.207 epa/play - 1st
50.5% success rate - 2nd
16.7 points - 1st
Second half Patriots Offense in 2025:
0.011 epa/play - 14th
41.5% success rate - 26th
10.6 points - 22nd
That’s an issue. Is that Vrabel telling Josh to be more conservative in the final 30 minutes? Is that a Josh thing? Either way, they need to be able to close out teams.
As far as this weekend, I wish I felt better about Sunday night in Baltimore. The Ravens have played in a million big games like this. Their defense has completely turned it around: per Action Network, through the first five weeks, BAL was 30th in EPA/play on defense, 29th in success rate, including 32nd and last in rush EPA/play, getting gashed on the ground. Since Week 6, they’re 5th in EPA/play on defense, 5th in success rate, and 1st in rush EPA/play.
Since Week 8, the Pats have one of the worst Run Ds in the NFL.
Vrabel is one of the best underdog coaches in recent NFL history. He’s also a career 24-18-3 ATS off a loss. Pats still have a 73% chance to win the AFC East, but don’t feel great about them clinching Sunday Night in Primetime.
On two reasons to revisit the terrible Mookie Betts trade…
Mookie Betts went on a Live Stream this week, and his appearance is worth mentioning for two reasons as we close in on the 6th anniversary of the trade that sent him to the Dodgers.
He reiterated that he never wanted to leave the Red Sox. “I knew, they told me,” Betts said of being traded. “It was werid man, because I was like, ‘Why?’ …I would have stayed there forever…I didn’t want to leave, but I understood the business side of it.”
The ‘Why,” of course, is that Betts wanted to be paid at the top of the market. As a player, that’s his right. The Red Sox had no interest in investing 12 years/$365 million in Betts—a deal that looks like a steal now at the halfway point. And with baseball about to get a CBA overhaul in 2027, the $30 million/per over the next six years might never look that bad. If they weren’t willing to extend themselves for Betts, then we (I) should not be shocked that Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber are not walking through that door. The Red Sox are worth almost $5 billion, and they should be able to weather the last few years of a bad deal. But they refuse to do it—unless you’re pre-arbitration. John Henry selling the Penguins is unlikely to change that.
I was actually on the Red Sox side in the Betts thing. That take will go down as one of my Top 5 worst, along with the suggestion that the Celtics should tank this season.I still believe the trade might have worked out if you got anything in return for him. But holy crap was the return for Betts bad. We don’t talk enough about how horrendous this trade was; it was one of the worst trades in sports history. For Betts, you got back -
Alex Verdugo - middling player at best. Just a 7 WAR player over four seasons in Boston. Zero point zero All-Star teams. Fans never warmed up to him, and some of that was on him. Best season remains his final year in LA.
Connor Wong - a negative WAR player in two of his five seasons in Boston. The Sox seem desperate to replace him with anyone.
Jeter Downs - 1 career HR. Might be out of professional baseball?
The Betts trade was probably always going to be bad, but this is atrocious. So for Betts and Rafael Devers, you got Verdugo, Wong, Downs, Kyle Harrison, and Jordan Hicks. Oh, and financial flexibility…to still not sign talented free agents to long-term deals. Awesome. More Red Sox bitching below in the Notes.
On your Week 16 NFL Picks…
Week 15 Results: 1-2 | ATD Reed ❌ | Pats ML ❌
On the Season: 18-27 | ATD bets 3 for 15 | ML Dog 5 for 8
Well, that sucked. Losing that under by a point, with the Dolphins deciding late they want to speed things up on Monday night, was the low moment of my gambling season. 10-0 at the half, and it goes over. How were there 19 points in the fourth quarter???
Spin Zone: If you’ve been fading me, you’re rich. Congrats! It actually can’t get worse, which I find comforting—on to Week 16.
Odds as of Friday morning, from DraftKings Sportsbook
The Side
COMMANDERS +7 VS EAGLES (-110). If I’m going to lose this week, I’m going to get the losses out of the way early. The Eagles beat up on a lifeless Raiders team that started Kenny Pickett last week. I refuse to see that as the EAGLES ARE BACK. Now they have to have a divisional rival on a short week and a coach that will be all out to win here down the stretch. Eagles are sure banged up and will be without DT Jalen Carter (shoulders) and T Lane Johnson (foot). This is a mini revenge spot for Washington after they got smoked by the Eagles in the NFC Title Game last year - they can keep this game close.
The Total
BILLS AT BROWNS UNDER 41.5 (-110). The Buffalo offense benefited from being forced into comeback mode against the Patriots and from a meltdown by the New England defense. In a close game, the Bills want to pound the ball - they already run the ball at the third-highest rate in the NFL and the fourth-highest when they have a lead of 3+ points. Plus, they are the slowest team in the NFL per FTN’s Snap/Sec. Add in a bad Browns’ offense and cold weather combined with some wind, and this game has 20-10 written all over it.
The Prop
BRYCE YOUNG OVER 210 PASSING YARDS (-104). The Bucs continue to be a pass-funnel defense, allowing the second-most yards in the air in the NFL (Dallas #1). Sounds like Tet McMillan will be back for Carolina, and if you think this game is back-and-forth, Young should clear this number on Sunday. I don’t hate laddering this play, either.
The ATD
TYLER WARREN +250. The 49ers have allowed the most TDs to opposing TEs over the last five games. Warren led the Colts in targets in Phillip Rivers’ first start. And if you see the Colts trailing (I do), Warren should get peppered with targets and TD chances.
The ML Dog Mut Says Is Barking
CARDINALS +130 VS. FALCONS. The Falcons won their Super Bowl last week, as Kyle Pitts destroyed so many fantasy and best ball teams. Bad game, give me the home dog.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ It was an angry Episode 6 of Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Between the news that the Sox don’t want to sign free agents to long-term deals, to the Bregman/DBacks buzz, to just the no-plan-whatsoever feel to the team’s offseason. Much venting was done on this week's episode. Watch and subscribe on YouTube or listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
🚨 The Massachusetts Gaming Commission told a bold step on Thursday when they voted 5-0 to implement rules that “would require the legal operators in the Bay State to both notify players “in a timely manner” that they have been limited, explain why, and inform them in the specific markets from which they have been limited,” per Bill Speros of Bookies.com. Sportsbooks have limited many players without any warning or explanation. The MGC says the books have the right to do that, but in MA, they want them to provide players with a detailed explanation of why and how. How this plays out after a mandatory public comment period will be one of the biggest stories in legalized sports betting in 2026. Probably the biggest in the country. Speros has a detailed story here, and it is worth a read.
🎙️ This week was the end of Audacy’s full-time sports betting network as well as the end of the national Infinity Sports Network. The two will essentially combine to form “Westwood One Sports,” beginning on Monday, December 29. I’m thrilled that my guy Nick Kostos will stay on, hosting a show from 9 AM to Noon. It’s idiotic that he’s not on an NFL network pregame show talking sharp bets, and someday I’ll take credit when someone gives him that shot. The flipside is that talented guys like Zach Gelb, Ryan Horvath, and Joe Ostrowski are out. They’ll all land on their feet, but as someone who was fired by Audacy around the holidays three years ago, I can confirm that it sucks. I’m guessing that WEEI 850-AM will carry the network beginning in Boston on 12/29.
👀 As for WEEI, we’ll get the full details of their disastrous fall book next week and have a full report here next Friday. I’m told management met with the midday and afternoon shows this week. I get the sense they have more faith in Jones & Keefe to turn it around than they do in WEEI Afternoons.
🗓️ Day 24 post Kirk Minihane Show. Would have killed for that ‘KMS Holiday Special’ this weekend. Would Justin have dressed up and played Santa? Will Justin still attend the next big event at The Brook, scheduled for early 2026? Freddie’s Birdies must hate Christmas, right? I wish they printed those Cully Quote books.
🏇🏻 51 Days of Racing at Saratoga this summer, the most ever. Google says Travers Day 2026 is set for August 23, but I’m hearing it might actually be August 29? Either way, see you there.
🏈 Scott Zolak got BURIED in this Awful Announcing fan rankings of NFL Radio play-by-play teams. “The jock-washer Zolak is constantly jumping Scocci’s calls,” “Zolak is nails on a chalkboard,” “he literally talks over Scocci the entire game,” and “screams unintelligible garbage.” Yikes. The duo ranked 29th in the NFL among 3,500 fan votes. Is it that bad? Isn’t the yelling a part of every NFL booth?
🥊Joshua destroys Paul tonight, right?
I think that’s enough Stack for today.
We won’t be back until the 26th, so an early, very Merry Christmas to everyone. And Happy Hanukkah. It will sound sappy or cliché or whatever, but if you have really young kids, please enjoy every second of the holidays. And take a million pictures and videos. Seriously, you can’t take enough, ever. Take a bunch and then take some more. They will eventually grow up and ignore you for their iPads.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading. And watching.
Merry Christmas Mut. Enjoy some time with the Viking.
Mutflix was cancelled because they were fearful of how big it could have become. I will be cancelling my Netflix subscription in disgust over this.