Friday Four-Pack 12.20.24
A brutal week for Jerod Mayo. The weirdest betting market of the year. Sox still won't spend. NFL Picks!
đ„ Video courtesy of Jessica Hallett Photo
What better way to open a Christmas edition of the Four-Pack than with a 2024 showdown between Santa vs. The Grinch at Saratoga Harness?
At one time, Saratoga Harness had a âDollar Dealsâ promotion, where you could get a PBR Draft and a hot dog for $1 each. Accounting for inflation, they would be more like $54 each in 2024. But in 2005, just out of college a few years prior, it felt like the best deal in Saratoga.
The Grinch - the movie not the driver in the exhibition race above - is not in the âmust-watchâ category of holiday movies at the Mutnansky Household.
For the boys, Home Alone still carries the day. The Netflix-produced The Christmas Chronicles movies are a close secondâŠthey prefer the sequel because it has âmore action.â
There is something called âLove at the Christmas Contestâ on our ârecently watchedâ tab via Xfinity, so that gives you an idea of what Mrs. Mut is watching this time of year.
Iâm a traditionalist with a soft spot for âA Christmas Story.â Is that because Ralpieâs parents are firing red wine at 9 AM? Whoâs to say? Itâs a Wonderful Life and Goodfellas, too. Yes, Goodfellas is a Christmas movie. Iâll watch those three for sure.
Not much time for watching any of those on Saturday, thanks to all the football.
Then we have all the games on Sunday. Then Monday Night Football. Then two games on Christmas - where hopefully Netflix has upgraded their bandwidth after the Tyson-Paul debacle. Then Thursday Night Football. And oh yeah, three more NFL games next Saturday. Tis the season.
Some might call that too much football. Not me, but some people.
Meanwhile, Jerod Mayo had a terrible 24 hours. The most bizarre betting note weâve had in almost two years of this newsletter. And so much holiday cheer.
All ahead in todayâs Four-Pack.
Todayâs Four-Pack is Presented by Sharp Hunter
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On a brutal week for Jerod MayoâŠ
Jerod Mayo had 24 hours so bad that even Rich Kotite was embarrassed for him.
Come out of the Patriotsâ bye week and look as flat as ever in a loss to the Cardinals in Arizona.
Threw his offensive coordinator directly under the bus in the post-game
Sheepishly walked back those comments the next day in his weekly radio hit with WEEI - something heâs had to do at least four times this season.
It wasn't good.
But there was one answer from Mayo during that WEEI interview that did not get much play in the media this week and was as bad as any of those offenses listed above.
About eight minutes into the Monday morning conversation, WEEI producer Chris Curtis asked a very fair question - âWhy has the Patriotsâ defense gotten worse as the season has gone on?â
Before we get to his terrible answerâsome facts.
The teamâs defense has gotten worse. Depending on what metrics you want to look at, they have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
One well-respected metric is DVOA. After the results across the league in Week 15, the Pats rank 30th of 32 teams in DVOA on defense. But DVOA also ranks how tough the schedule has been for your defense (or offense) to play against. The Patriotsâ defense has faced the second-easiest defensive schedule, based on the DVOA numbers.
So, not only are they bad - but theyâve faced a Charmin-soft schedule.
Okay, maybe you donât like fancy stats like DVOA. How about these?
Interceptions - 5th fewest in the NFL
Sacks - 4th fewest in the NFL
QB Rating against - 5th worst in the NFL
Back to Mayoâs WEEI answer, in full, about the defense getting worse.
âI would say early on, we felt pretty good about the guys we had out there. You look at the first gameâŠyou had (JaâWhuan) Bentley out thereâŠyou had the safeties rollingâŠ. Obviously (Christian) Barmore wasnât thereâŠthose things have obviously hurt us. Now, not making excuses and the other guys have definitely stepped up and tried to fill those roles, but those things definitely take a toll and just gotta be better.â
Yikes.
After making the injury excuse, he says heâs not making excusesâŠwhen will he walk back this one?
Yes, JaâWhuan Bentley has been out since September. But Sundayâs lineup in Arizona featured everyone else you had active to start the season - PLUS Christian Barmore, who Mayo noted was not available in Week 1.
This was a Top 10 DVOA defense a season ago and many of the same players are back. Whatâs different is the coach and the coordinator, both of whom have had bad seasons.
Rather than admit that or take the blame, Mayo pins the bottom falling out of the group on Bentleyâs injury. A reminder here that Bentley is a guy who has been in the league for six seasons and has never sniffed a Pro Bowl. Nice player, but putting this disaster of a unit on him? Brutal.
And if Mayo is willing to make excuses, why wonât the players just do the same thing?
People (myself included) have been so focused on the development of Drake Maye and Alex Van Peltâs dry play-calling, that this disaster of a defense has basically gotten a pass.
The dumb statements and the walk-backs. The blank sideline stares and the excuses. For a guy who was touted as a âleaderâ who learned from football and from going to work outside of the game at Optum, weâve not seen that leadership this season.
In a poor year for Jerod Mayo, this was his worst week as Patriots head coach
A few other Mayo/Pats notes.
đ A week ago I was 100% âMayo will be back.â Iâll amend that to 94% and allow for a 6% chance that
A huge off-the-field story or meltdown develops. Or-
The on-the-field product completely crumbles. Look at all the blue.
That blue shows are all the TV markets that will get Pats-Bills late on CBS Sunday. Even if youâre locked into RedZone, youâll see a chunk of that game nationally because there are only two other games to go with it. Then next week, Pats-Chargers is an island game at 1 PM on Saturday. Everyone will see that one.
Iâve believed for months that Robert Kraftâs ego would not allow him to fire his hand-picked successor to Bill Belichick after one season. But what if the sight of his team getting blown out back-to-back weeks around the holidays in high-profile spots ends up being too much to handle? Again, 6% chance, but itâs in play.
đ Josh Allen is the major betting favorite to win the MVP. He also receives a $1.5 million bonus if he wins the award this season. There will be no letting off the gas from Allen and the Bills on Sunday.
đ This was neat. Congrats guys, you got your team back. Alex Van Pelt telling the media on Thursday he has not spoken to the Krafts since Jonathan called his playcalling âterribleâ on national TV is a bad sign for Van Peltâs chances at coming back in 2025. It will be sort of awkward if/when they fire both coordinators and bring Mayo back. Maybe theyâll only fire one of them. They canât bring them both back, can they?
Three games to go. Then itâs back to months of coach and draft talk for Pats fans.
On a sad reminder about the Boston Red Sox offseasonâŠ
Last year, we all mocked them for their Full-Throttle bullshit.
This year itâs been more of the same, without the failed dumb catchphrase to rub in their faces. But this year it might actually be worse.
Because either directly or through second and third parties, the organization whispered to a bunch of folks around the organization - Jared Carrabis, Rob Bradford, and our guy Red Sox Stats above - this year would be different. The team used folks that fans trust to get the word out that youâre willing to spend. And you havenât. Not a good look.
Heading into Christmas, they seem much more Grinch than Santa when it comes to spending.
This week, we had this note from Peter Gammons on X.com- âThree officials from other teams in four days have claimed Craig Breslow has been the most active GM in trade discussions, two describing his approach as "persistence.â I liked one GMâs description as âresilient,â which implies focus and the willingness to embrace change.â
I read that as âBreslow is looking at every trade possible because his owners wonât let him spend money.â
The Crochet trade was a good one. And there are still big names out there (Burnes, Hernandez, Bregman). But right now, there is a chance the team used Sox-friendly voices to try and convince fans that indeed, this year would be different when it came to spending.
Closing in on the end of 2024, so far itâs just been more of the same.
On your sports media and sports betting notebookâŠ
âĄïž Hereâs more evidence (if you still need it) that people will bet on anything.
Bryan Johnson is a 45-year-old tech millionaire who spends a reported $2 million a year testing anti-aging treatments on himself. He offers a lifestyle protocol, Project Blueprint, with longevity products designed to help you so you âDonât Die.â He makes claims on X.com about how the process has reversed his aging process and says âBy 2030, wanting to live to 120 will be seen as a modest goal.â
Before you roll your eyes, over $53,000 has been bet into this market about what Johnson calls, a âsignificant biological age marker representing sexual, cardiovascular, and psychological health.
So the next time your wife or girlfriend complains that youâre betting too much on football, remind her it could be worse, and that at least you're not betting on some dudeâs nighttime boners.
âĄïž In a late entry for Dumbest Thing Said on Boston Sports Radio in 2024, Jermaine Wiggins argued Wednesday morning on WEEI that the lack of drama in the NBA is hurting the ratings: specifically as it related to the fairly low 17-share that was the average for the Celtics/Mavs NBA Finals in the Boston market.
That series featured the Celtics trying to break through after losing in the Finals to the Warriors in 2022 and then being upset by the Heat in 2023. You had Kyrie vs. Boston. You had Jayson Tatum vs. Luka Doncic. The drama - and the star power - was there.
Too many 3-pointersâŠa largely boring regular season where over half the teams make the playoffsâŠthe league constantly pushing the social agenda of the week⊠all fair reasons why the leagueâs ratings continue to trend downward. But lack of drama was not a reason why the NBA Finals drew modest ratings in Boston earlier this year.
âĄïž To be fair, thatâs one of the reasons it was fun to do radio with Wiggy - even if you told him 1000 times he was wrong, heâd keep battling.
âĄïž No, you arenât going crazy. For the first time ever, NFL RedZone ran split-screen commercials this past Sunday. Sportico reports it was just a test and it wonât happen again this season. Given all the no-so-secret reports of how many people are actually watching RedZone (a lot) itâs likely we see ads like this as soon as next season. Fans will complain for a week then go right back to binging their football.
âĄïž He didnât and couldnât say it last week, so prepare yourself for the most aggressive âSeven hours of commercial-free football starts right now!â from Scott Hanson this week to kick off RedZone on Sunday.
âĄïž 98.5 The Sports Hubâs Fred Toucher took one last, albeit small victory lap on Thursday morning. The breakup of Toucher and Rich, Fredâs continued success, and Rich Shertenliebâs flameout are in the running for the biggest sports media story in Boston for 2024. Weâll focus on that here more next week. H/T Boston Media Critic for the video of Fred.
âĄïž The Red Sox continue to take their sweet time in announcing plans for replacing the retired Joe Castiglione in the teamâs radio booth. Will Flemming - the expected choice - teased a potential professional announcement for this week when he was on the Jared Carrabis-hosted Section 10 Podcast last week. But still nothing. Multiple requests on a timeline on the announcement have gone unresponded to by the team.
On our Week 16 NFL PicksâŠPresented by Sharp Hunter
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Week 15: 2-1 /// Season Record: 23-22 (51.1%) đđđ
There are a lot of injuries - key injuries - heading into Week 16. Between that and wondering about the motivation of some teams (Raiders), itâs hard to have a ton of conviction about these games on Friday morning. I will 100% be updating this section on Sunday morning
The Side
đ 49ERS PK AT DOLPHINS (-110, Ceasars)
The Dolphins are going in the wrong direction. Since Tua returned in Week 10, they have had the worst Rush EPA/play in the NFL. Tyreke Hillâs last catch of 30+ yards came in Week 1. Their defense - even playing the 21st-ranked DVOA DEF schedule - is 19th and does not put a scare in anyone. Itâs been a down year for wunderkind coach Mike McDaniel.
And now the Dolphins are one of the teams where injuries look to have a major effect on their chances this week. Both Terron Armstead and Jaylen Waddle seem unlikely to play.
On the other side, San Francisco gets extra rest for this game and LB Dre Greenlaw says heâll return despite knee soreness. Theyâre down to Patrick Taylor JR at RB, but they always find a way with whatever guy they have back there.
Itâs been a down year for the 49ers too, but theyâre #8 in DVOA vs MIA #24 - and the 49ers have played a tougher schedule and have had worse injury luck.
I have no questions about the motivation for Kyle Shannahanâs squad. Theyâre better than a banged-up Miami teamâ49ers for me.
Note that DraftKings is SF -1, Ceasars is PK and FanDuel is SF +1.5 (-120) - so make sure you shop around.
The Total
đ UNDER 42.5 VIKINGS AT SEAHAWKS
The Seattle offense has slowed to a crawlâover the last five weeks in neutral-pace situations, they rank fourth-slowest in the NFL per FTNâs snap/sec stat. Brandon Thorn of ETR ranks Seattle as a bottom-five OL - not great facing a blitz-happy Vikingsâ defense.
Minnesota will throw it as much as any team in the league, but they donât play all that fast - FTN has them fifth-slowest snap/sec in neutral-pace situations on the year.
Then we have the weather - rain and wind are expected for much of the game on Sunday in Seattle.
Seattleâs best chance to win this game is to slow it down and their defense is better than what the Vikings have been facing as of late. Plus the injuries, plus the weatherâŠUNDER here for me. Note this game has come down a full point from 43.5 on Thursday.
The Prop
đ MIKE GESICKI O27.5 REC YARDS (+100, CAESARS)
Gesicki had one of his worst games of the year earlier season against these Browns (1 catch, 2 yards). In a must-win game and with Tee Higgins banged up, heâs in line for a much better effort here. Note the Browns have allowed 54.8 yards per game to opposing TEs over the last five weeks.
Sunday AM Updates:
The public is hammering Detroit. Sharp Hunter likes Detroit. Seems like a good play today.
This 49ers line has flipped - there are now some Miami +2.5s out there.
Higgins healthy means the Gesicki stuff has come down a few yards but still playable.
FanDuel is lower than market on Puka Nacua stuff today. Jets slot corner hurt and Tyler Higbee sick. Great Nacua spot.
They should smash, but Iâm not laying the 14 with Buffalo.
And with that, we have for sure said it all.
Back here Sunday morning to update the bets. And weâll close out the year next Friday with a milestone Four-Pack to end 2024.
A very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and yours. Hopefully, Santa brings you some winning parlays. đ đ đ As always, thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
