Friday Four-Pack 1.23.26
Patriots a mere win away from the Super Bowl. Sports media is dumb. Another bad week for Sports Radio WEEI. NFL Picks and Props!
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
No note from Dave this week. I’ll be looking for him and Elio on the Pegasus World Cup Betting Challenge leaderboard
What Tony Romo are we getting on Sunday afternoon?
He’ll be on the call for CBS with Jim Nantz as America’s Nightmare, the New England Patriots, travel to Denver as strong road favorites in the AFC Championship.
Are we getting the Romo who called Josh Allen ‘Mahomes’ last week? The guy who struggled in that Bills/Jags game? Myself and others have been all over Romo this season, pointing out his many issues. He and Nantz have been ‘off’ for a few years now. I’d argue they had much better chemistry when they started.
“It’s much ado about nothing,” one CBS exec told Front Office Sports about the very public Romo criticism.
I’m at the point where I can’t tell if Romo’s struggles are good or bad for CBS.
On one hand, I wish Tom Brady was calling this game. He played with Jarrett Stidham in 2019, even giving him the nickname ‘Stiddy’. And you have the Brady/Drake Maye Patriots connection. I also think Brady is better than Romo now, and I glean more from Brady on the call than I do from Romo.
On the other hand, Romo could say anything and it would not surprise me at this point. Loose Cannon Romo could go viral at anytime. It might be for calling a player by the wrong name or getting a ruling wrong, but it’s always in play.
I guess that’s a good thing for CBS? No ones not watching an NFL game (any game?) because of the announcer. But there’s a world where something dumb Romo says ends up being as big a headline as the game the next day. At least online.
He’s a lock to change his opinion on a replay in a matter of seconds. And he’ll make some weird noises. Let’s hope a big Patriots win overshadows Romo’s performance - good or bad - in the booth.
Meanwhile, I underestimated two key Patriots heading into the season. Awards voters in sports get it wrong. NFL Picks for Championship Weekend. And another bad sign for Sports Radio WEEI in Boston.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #156
Only three football games left in the NFL season. Let’s make it count.
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On the Patriots in the AFC Title Game…
It’s gonna be a light snow.
On something in sports that makes me irrationally mad…
This is really dumb. And there are a lot more important things going on in the world. But I have to scratch this itch.
The NFL’s All-Pro Teams came out over the last few weeks, with Matthew Stafford besting Drake Maye for First Team honors. And like, I get it, 46 TDs is a big number for Stafford. He also threw for more yards than Drake Maye. He had an awesome year. The voting was 31-18, which was more lopsided than I expected, but I can see a vote for Stafford. I would have voted for Maye, but it was close.
I had assumed that all 50 voters had Stafford and Maye in first and second place, respectively, in some order. I was wrong. From Ben Volin in the Globe:
I’m flabbergasted. Three voters did not have Drake Maye as 1st or 2nd Team All-Pro?
Take their votes away. I’m not being dramatic. If you watched football this season and didn’t think Drake Maye was the best or second-best quarterback in the NFL, you should not be voting on these types of awards. A quick review:
Passing Yards: Stafford led the NFL with 4,707 (1st overall), followed by Maye with 4,394 (around 4th), and Allen with 3,668 (around 11th).
Passing Touchdowns: Stafford dominated with 46 (1st), Maye had 31 (around 3rd), Allen had 25 (tied around 9th).
Interceptions: All three were efficient — Maye and Stafford each with 8 (tied around 17th), Allen with 10 (tied around 23rd).
Completion Percentage: Maye topped at 72.0%, Allen at 69.3%, Stafford at 65.0%.
Yards per Attempt (Y/A): Maye led with 8.9, Stafford at 7.9, Allen at 8.0 (approximate from sources).
Passer Rating: Maye had the highest at 113.5, Stafford at 109.2, Allen at 102.2.
QBR (ESPN’s efficiency metric): Maye ranked 1st at 77.1, Stafford 4th at 71.1, Allen 7th at 65.3.
WHAT ARE WE DOING?????
As I said, this should not bother me. I get stuff wrong all the time. But these ‘professionals’ watched football all season, and someone missed how much better Maye was than Allen. There are only 50 voters, so almost 10% of them blew this.
This is from this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame voting. It’s sort of silly (dumb) that two people voted for Rick Porcello. Good Red Sox pitcher, not a Hall of Famer. Nick Markakis getting a vote, again, maybe funny, but more dumb.
But…Ryan Braun got 15 votes??? The same Ryan Braun who took PEDs, got caught, held a press conference where he basically accused the FedEx delivery guy who collected the sample of tampering with it in some bizarre rant about being framed? The same Bruan who, two years later, admitted he took PEDs and accepted a 65-game suspension from MLB? Manny Ramirez got caught juicing multiple times by MLB, and people still voted for him - they’re morons, too.
If you’re going to ask fans to take awards and accolades like this seriously, the people who vote on it should probably take it seriously, too.
This stuff should not bother me. It does. Maybe I’m the moron. That’s probably the case.
On your Championship Weekend NFL Picks…
Wild Card Results 1-2 | Tremble ATD❌ | Steelers ML ❌
Divisional Results 1-2 | Tonges ATD ❌ | Bills ML ❌
Had the right read on Pats/Texans, so that made for an okay weekend. Only two games this week, so extended thoughts on both below. Odds as of Friday at DraftKings, and my bets are bolded.
PATRIOTS AT BRONCOS
Pats -4.5 (-112) Total 42.5 (Over -115)
So yeah, the social media sharps are falling all over each other to bet the Broncos here. “Too many points….the drop-off from Nix to Stidham is not that steep…Patriots played no one this season…Denver defense is elite…”
But what if Denver’s defense is not that good? What if the Pats’ D has been better since Week 10? That’s what DVOA says, and I am a DVOA disciple. Forget DVOA, use your eyeballs - the Pats’ D is locked in. You had Chargers’ receivers saying they had no idea what coverage New England was running. Then CJ Stroud has one of the worst games you’ll ever see from a QB.
Now this unit gets to face Jarrett Stidham? Nix doesn’t take sacks - Stiddy took 13 (!!!) in his four starts over 2022-23. I don’t think the Broncos will be able to or have any interest in running at Milton Williams and this defense. So it will be up to Stidham against Vrabel and this defense. And then Drake Maye and McDaniels against what might be an overrated defense. Really? I’ll lay the points, Pats -4.5.
The Broncos’ defense allowed the 9th most yards to opposing TEs this year. Then last week, got ripped for 9-115-1 by the Bills TEs. Over 43.5 REC for Hunter Henry.
RAMS AT SEAHAWKS
Hawks -2.5 (-110) Total 46.5
I’m torn on this game. I’ve thought Seattle has been underrated all season. I bet the Seahawks when these two teams met late in the season. Hawks are home. Rams are playing a third straight road game. Seattle coming off a total destruction of the 49ers, while the Rams needed an OT INT to beat the Bears…Chicago kinda looks better there, right? A lot of positives for SEA.
BUT…Sean McVay. Dude has owned Seattle. He is 13-6 ATS against them, and 12-3 ATS since 2019. His Rams come in here full strength, while Seattle has a QB with an oblique injury - Darnold is still not practicing in full. And now they have LT issues: starter Charles Cross (foot), backup Josh Jones (knee, ankle), and third-teamer Amari Kight (knee) — were listed as not participating in practice Thursday. And their best pass protection back (Charbonet) is out for the year.
Both are highly rated in DVOA, with SEA among the best teams all-time per that metric.
Darnold’s oblique, the LT situation, and McVay are enough to get me on Rams Moneyline (+120). I’d be buying it up to Rams +3 before I played it at 2.5.
Seattle allowed the 6th most yards to opposing TEs, and Tyler Higbee was in there in the Red Zone last week. Higbee ATD +500.
I’ll add any other props or plays here on Sunday afternoon. There will be more props.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
🎙️ Since 2004, Sports Radio WEEI has been simulcasting its feed to the Providence radio market on 103.7 FM (WVEI). That signal also allowed residents in Rhode Island, Southeast Massachusetts, and Northern Connecticut to hear WEEI programming very clearly. News broke this week that Audacy is selling WVEI to Ocean State Media, the parent organization of Public News/Talk “The Public’s Radio,” thus ending that simulcast. And in the process, giving radio listeners a much smaller footprint to get WEEI out of Boston on 93.7 FM.
WEEI closed its RI sales offices a few years ago, but this is still a big surprise. I’m told by one good source that it sure came as a surprise to the Red Sox, who were reportedly told the day before and were not happy about it. The Sox will be pushed to a smaller signal in the market if they’re looking for a new radio affiliate. And there’s a chance the deal doesn’t happen until after Opening Day, meaning flipping stations during the season
This affects a lot more than just Rhode Island. The 103.7 signal gave WEEI important coverage. Football fans can tell you that because in the Gillette Stadium parking lots, 103.7 comes in much more clearly than 93.7. 98.5 The Sports Hub’s signal is much better there and across the state. You can say, “Just listen on the app,” but the WEEI/radio listener is older - they’re less likely to make that move, even if it sounds simple to you. Also, like, people hate change.
An Audacy spokesperson told The Globe that the company does not plan to sell WEEI. But this can not be viewed as anything but a negative for the station and the brand. I can tell you radio people - who love to gossip - are speculating this is the beginning of the end for WEEI. We’ll see. TBH, the end really started when station management backed a rogue activist instead of its talented morning duo at the time, but that’s a different newsletter.
🎙️ The next thing I’m looking for from WEEI is a lineup change before Sox Opening Day. If they stand pat with what they have, after getting embarrassed in the fall book, no changes might be a sign that they know a bigger change is coming, and it would not be ‘worth it’ to make changes now. At least that’s how I’ll view it.
⚾ Fun episode of Dirty Water - A Boston Boston Podcast this week, with old friend Chris Klemmer. Watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcasts.
📺 Good decision from NESN to move Boston Has Entered The Chat to afternoons at 4 PM vs mornings at 8 AM. No one is listening to WEEI Afternoons, so it's a good spot for live, local sports programming, with some people I like (Lucy, Murray, Kaufman).
📺 Embarrassing decision from NESN not to staff the pre- and post-Suarez press conference on Wednesday. Hearing aid infomercial to press conference to promos and commercials. You can’t be cheaper. Rough.
⚾ Great job by DraftKings, The Brook Casino, and the NH Lottery for their David Ortiz event Thursday Night. Ortiz gave the crowd a hitting lesson and told some great stories. Huge crowd that overflowed into the DraftKings Sportsbook (which is stadium seating and has every horse race live, and I didn’t want to leave).
🏀 Watching the Barstool Chicago basketball team this week mostly just made me miss KMS Basketball. Some combo of Team KMS/Barstool NY would give those guys a good game. Maybe someone can pull a rabbit out of a hat and make that game happen in 2026.
🏈 I need to admit publicly that I might be addicted to Griddy.
📈 Prediction Markets seem an awful lot like sports betting. But they’re not sports betting, legally, I guess? I’ll admit, I don’t quite get it. But a judge in MA ruled, "The Commonwealth is entitled to a preliminary injunction prohibiting Kalshi from offering sport-related event contracts in the absence of the required license under the Sports Wagering Law." This might end up being a big deal nationally, and Bill Speros has the details.
📷 It might be terrible, but I am committed to posting more on Instagram and eventually TikTok.
🏈 Mark your calendars for Saturday, November 7 - Bill Belichick makes his New England coaching return as the UConn Huskies host his UNC Tar Heels.
🏇🏻 Big horse racing weekend in Florida with the Pegasus World Cup. No Derby Preps this week, so we’ll focus on a few races from that loaded card tomorrow on Kentucky Derby Prepping w/ Mut over on the Barstool Blog.
I think that’s enough Stack for this week. I can’t wait for Sunday.
Good luck with your bets this weekend. Unless you’re betting on the Broncos.
Thanks for reading. And watching. Go Pats.
"Stiddy" what a clever nickname. How did Brady come up with it?
I look forward to the newest breakout sensation on TikTok. If Karen Read invites you out for a steak dinner, please do not let her drive you home.