Friday Four-Pack 12.5.25

Ted Johnson has a Bill Belichick take. My favorite Drake Maye stat of the season. Crazy (bad) sports radio numbers in Boston. NFL Picks. Time for change in horse racing

Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:

No note from Dave this week. Go, BYU.

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If I didn’t work for Barstool and didn’t already write it for the Barstool Blog, this would have been my open this week.

I probably wouldn’t have used Rico in the headline, but the body of the column/blog would have been the same. And I would have done it because I love horse racing. And it makes me so angry that the industry isn't doing more to drive positive change.

Every week, Ed DeRosa posts the handle numbers from across the country. Usually, there’s a note about how much worse they are than a year ago or two years ago or whatever. Betting is down, thanks in part to CAWs. People have short attention spans, and a sport where you can bet on a 90-second race every 15 minutes should be thriving in 2025. Instead, it’s failing for many reasons.

Every week, there’s an example of CAWs ruining what should be good payouts for players.

This is from last week, when a 63-1 exacta became a 22-1 exacta, thanks to one big CAW bet as the race started. The tracks claim to care about their fans (bettors), yet I heard this week from a reliable source that the tracks that had planned to start cutting back on the CAWs' advantages are now rethinking their plans altogether. WTF.

Every week, there’s some ridiculous PR mess, like the jockeys refusing to ride last Sunday in NY. Owner and bettors got screwed because of a dispute between the jocks and NYRA? Give me a break. It’s not the most insane cancellation in NY this year. No, that came back in March, when loud music from a sound system at the adjacent casino stopped racing. I wish I were making that up.

So when Mike Repole, one of the most successful businessmen of my lifetime, says he wants to help fix racing, forgive me for wanting him involved. It’s exciting to think that Repole cares enough about racing to want to help. He could be working on another billion-dollar business. Or focusing on the UFL. But here he is, on a show with Dave Portnoy, complaining about the same things my racing fan friends and I complain about by text every week!

And just like the guys on that group text, he loves racing. It was probably 15 years ago now in Saratoga, with some of those same guys. Back when I was young and not a washed-up old man, we’d go downtown to bar hop after a day at the races. One night, at Dango’s patio (RIP Dango’s), in walks Mike Repole. We shouted him out, he came over, said hello, just another racing fan soaking in Saratoga.

That’s the guy I want making decisions for racing. Not Everett R. Dobson, whoever that is.

The folks in charge of racing are letting the sport die a slow, painful death. Boxing has the same lack of leadership, and it’s a shell of what it once was. You can say the same for racing.

So, yeah, I’ll keep writing about the problems in racing. I know I speak for thousands of fans who feel the same way when I do so.

And also, Mike Repole for Horse Racing Commissioner.

Meanwhile, we got a Bill Belichick take from one of his former players. The wildest Drake Maye stat of the year. NFL Picks and a radio-heavy MutStack notes.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

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Does this headline, “Netflix Acquires Warner Bros. Studios and HBO in $82.7 Billion Deal,” mean that going to the movies is over? Are we all watching movies at home now??

I have no idea, but you'd better subscribe anyway. Also, it’s free.

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On Bill Belichick, Robert Kraft, and the Hall of Fame…

I’m guessing most people saw this headline, and the first thought that came to mind was, yep, both Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft deserve to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

That was not the first thought for former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson.

No, the now WEEI host used his allotted time in the show’s “Three Point Stance” segment to proclaim that Bill Belichick is a Hall of Famer, just not a first ballot Hall of Famer. You’re forgiven if you’ve never heard of the segment before; based on the most recent Boston radio ratings, you’re not alone—more on that below in the MutStack Notes.

“I would say Belichick, by far, is the most responsible for the cheating scandals,” said Johnson. “I don’t remember Bill coming around to us saying, ‘Hey, I’m going to spy on this team. I just want you guys to know. Don’t say anything to anybody if they ask you. But we’re going to be doing some stuff behind the scenes that you might get questioned [about] later on. So just make sure when they question your Super Bowls later, you just tell them that you had no knowledge of the cheating scandal.’ And also, the cheating was - they knew the rules, right? Belichick knew the rules, and he still cheated anyway.

“I don’t know if a coach has had more success than Bill when it comes to championships, but also more negative kind of stories that he’s brought upon himself. And so to say that he deserves to go into the Hall of Fame first ballot, when you consider all of those scandals that he’s been a part of, I don’t agree with [that]. I don’t.”

More of the negative kind of stories.

Ted, just come out and say your coach was a cheater and you don’t like him.

Yes, Belichick cheated. He pushed the rules with Spygate and got caught. As a result, the team lost draft picks, and Kraft lost money. He was dumb for doing it.

If Johnson has beef with Bill over his Super Bowls being in question, I totally get it. But to be fair, Johnson and Belichick have been beefing for a while. In 2007, the linebacker turned football analyst said Belichick “subjected him to hard hits in
practice while he was recovering from a concussion -- against the advice of the team’s top trainer.”

“I told him, ‘You played God with my health. You knew I shouldn’t have been cleared to play,” Johnson told the Boston Globe back in 2007.

Do I feel like that story might impact Ted’s opinion on Bill and the Hall of Fame? I do. Just like it might have led to him saying earlier this year that Belichick deserved “just 10% of the credit” for the team’s success while he was here. We’ll see if the HOF voters have the same biases as Ted.

But unlike the Baseball Hall of Fame, there’s no character clause when it comes to voting for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. There’s some vague “morality clause,” I guess. Terrell Owens didn’t make it until his third time on the ballot, and some people think his character was the reason. Should voters do the same with Belichick? According to Johnson, yes.

I don’t think they will. I believe that Bill believes they might, which is why he included “Congratulations to the other finalists, Roger Craig, Kenny Anderson, L.G. Greenwood, and of course, Robert Kraft. I hope to see all of the deserving Patriots selected this year” at the end of his statement on the nomination this week. He and Kraft have been at odds since his Patriots breakup, and I think Bill hopes the voters see the synergy in putting both him and his former boss in the same year, rather than penalize Bill for cheating.

Kraft should already be in. He oversaw the Patriots’ Dynastic run in addition to getting credit from players like Jeff Saturday for helping end the 2011 NFL lockout. “I don’t want to be climactic in any way, but he is a man who helped us save football,” Saturday said. Kraft should 100% be in.

Johnson also wants to penalize Belichick because he had Tom Brady as his QB. “So with Tom Brady and the cheating scandals, he doesn’t deserve to go in on the first ballot,” said Johnson.

Just say you don’t like the guy. Is Ted going to say the same thing about Brady in a few years, pointing to Deflategate as a reason for keeping him out of the Hall on the first ballot? Of course not, because he likes Brady.

It would be a much better radio if Ted just came out and admitted his hate for Belichick as the reason he should not go on the first ballot, rather than the weak argument he laid out this week.

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On My Assorted Drake Maye thoughts…

There have been many 👀👀 Drake Maye stats this season, but this one is the 👀👀iest. It shows he’s been both excellent and consistent. So far, no Year 2 QB roller coaster for the MVP favorite.

Sure, he and the team have benefitted from one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. But I would counter that by pointing out that his weapons are still not at the level of, say, Detroit or Dallas, who we saw in action on Thursday night. Matt Stafford is his closest MVP threat, and he has Puka Nacua AND Davante Adams. Maye has been awesome with good but not great offensive talent around him. Josh McDaniels deserves some of the credit for that, too.

This play here from Monday night is another example of Drake Maye playing quarterback like a great point guard. No panic. Head always looking up. Maybe he doesn’t know exactly where he wants to go at first. But he can see the play developing as he evades pressure. Eventually, he throws a pass with real touch to his RB. I mean, there are four Giants defenders right in his face, and he just nonchalantly moves right and makes the play. He actually glides to his right to make the play. So much poise. I love this play.

That, as much as his insane skill at throwing the deep ball, has been my favorite thing about Maye’s magical season. He’s playing the position with so much confidence.

Like, this note from the Boston Globe Friday morning…what former Patriots QB does this remind you of?

In 2023, when a local HVAC company reached out to Maye with an NIL deal, he agreed on the condition that his four starting offensive linemen be included, as well. The fivesome then appeared together in television commercials and radio spots throughout the season.

It’s okay to think it, even say it. It’s also OK to say that Year 2 Maye > Year 2 Brady. It’s true - he’s more talented than Tom was at this point.

I actually think we’d be talking about Maye and his season even more if it weren’t for Brady. People are afraid to compare to two, worried about putting a jinx on the 23-year-old. No one wants to compare this kid to the Greatest of All-Time, I get it. But this season is beyond expectations, even for the biggest Maye supporters.

Can I also say here in this Ode to Drake Maye, I think his legs are going to be a weapon late in the year and into the playoffs? He’s a tremendous athlete, and I get the sense he could run more if he wanted to. Or if the coaches allowed him to. My gut says they're playing it safe, and as the games mean more, he’ll run more. Hopefully, he won’t be a moron about it like Jaxon Dart.

After sitting through Mac Jones (with Matt Patricia), Cam Newton, Bailey Zappe…it is a joy to watch Drake Maye play quarterback.

There is no doubt that Drake Maye jerseys will be the most popular gifts this season in New England. It’s not crazy to think fans will be able to wear them late into January, maybe even early February, cheering on their favorite team.

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On your Week 14 NFL Picks…

Week 13 Results: 1-2 | ATD Estime / Allen ❌ ❌ | Jets ML ✅
On the Season: 16-23 | ATD bets 3 for 14 | ML Dog 4 for 6

Aaron Rodgers looked terrible. Cam Ward had one carry for seven yards, but that line ended up at 15.5 yards, and we got in at 10.5. Still a loser. Moneyline dogs now 4 for 6, and they’re saving my bankroll. Odds below from DraftKings as of Friday morning.

The Side
JETS +3 VS DOLPHINS (-120). In what world am I supposed to bet on Tua as a road favorite? His EPA/Play is 26th in the NFL among QBs with at least 100 snaps this season. He’s been under pressure all season, and that’s likely to continue this weekend. Devon Achane is set up for success here, and I’ll have a lot of him on DraftKings DFS, but this is a Jets spot. All Tyrod Taylor does is cover - now a career 37-21-4 ATS. Since the start of 2022, he is 7-0-1 ATS in 8 starts, per Action Network. In a battle of Two Bottom Ten Offenses vs. Two Bottom Ten Defenses, I have to take the home dog.

The Total
STEELERS AT RAVENS UNDER 42.5 (-108) As someone invested in the Steelers last week and paying close attention, I’m here to report that their offense is cooked. Rodgers throws nothing downfield and has to rely on short passes to march his offense forward. The Ravens have plenty of offensive talent, but they play slow - 6th slowest SEC/SNAP in FTN’s neutral pace situation numbers. The Steelers aren’t much faster, at 11th slowest. The Ravens also run the ball at one of the highest clips in the league, in addition to running almost zero no-huddle. The under has been the play in this matchup - 20-13-1 over the last 34 games and a solid 9-1 to the under in the previous 10 meetings: ugly game, and one where I’ll happily play the under.

The Prop
We’re waiting to get the TE injury news and prop lines for the Bills. Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, Jackson Hawes. We’re playing an over, but might have to wait until Sunday.

The ATD
KIMANI VIDAL (+300). RB Omarion Hampton looks like he’ll come back from injury this week. While he’s been out, Vidal has been solid. This is being priced like Hampton (+170) will go right back to lead-back status. Given how good Vidal has been, I’m betting he still gets plenty of touches against an Eagles D that got shredded on the ground by the Bears last Friday. And now, no Jalen Carter up front for the Eagles.

The ML Dog Mut Says is Barking
CHARGERS +124. No Carter. Eagles O is a mess. Philly 8-15 ATS off a loss with Sirianni.

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On your weekly MutStack Notes…

🎙️ From last week’s Four-Pack:

WFAN’s PM host Keith McPherson announced Monday he was leaving his full-time position with New York’s #1 sports radio show. A few weeks ago, I wrote here that the sports radio rumor mill had Craig Carton set to make his third return to WFAN in the next few weeks or early 2026. McPherson’s exit clears a spot to move pieces and put Carton back in afternoon drive. I have not seen anyone else write about this, but I’m confident in my sources.

We had his one before all the big guys. Radio is a funny business. This will be Carton’s third stint at WFAN. His second stint ended when he left to focus on a Fox TV show. With that show cancelled, WFAN and their general manager, Chris Oliviero, came calling. Again. He’s got baggage, but he gets ratings. As terrestrial radio tries to figure out what its role is in media over the next 5-10 years, it makes sense for WFAN to put him back in afternoons.

🎙️ In Boston, we’ll get the full fall ratings book in a few weeks. Based on the weekly ratings I have access to, the WEEI Afternoon number will go down as the worst ratings we have ever seen. And I’ve hosted some poorly rated shows!

Starting in September, I have their weekly ranks among 25-54 as follows: 17th, 12th, 11th, 15th, 15th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 17th, 14th, 14th, and most recently, 21st. Again, that’s among the sports radio power demo, Men25-54. In that same time period, Felger & Mazz were ranked #1 - every week.

What will make these ratings so bad, of course, is the context of this fall: Red Sox made the playoffs & Drake Maye Magic. This should have been a massive fall for both Sports Radio WEEI and 98.5 The Sports Hub. But it’s been an unmitigated disaster for a show that has Drake Maye as a weekly guest, WEEI Afternoons.

Even as Mike Thomas tries desperately to spin things as positive to his WEEI employees, the overall numbers between the two stations will tell a similar story, one that’s been clear for a while - Boston is a one-sports-radio-station town, at least among listeners.

Full report here in a few weeks.

⚾ The Red Sox spending - and reported lack thereof - was a focus of Episode 4 of Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Watch on YouTube or listen (and subscribe, please) wherever you get your podcasts. Some good stuff is coming from Team Dirty Water, which added to our roster this week.

⚾ Jeff Passan wrote Friday that the Red Sox were among the teams that would “spend on a big bat” in free agency. That better mean bringing back Alex Bregman in addition to that big bat.

📆 Day 10 post Kirk Minihane Show. Coleman texted me about Boston College, and I responded. Do you think Boner Salad is really going to sue that woman? Pat Ford seems well. That ‘Kevin from Bristol’ Christmas poem is 🔥. I miss Cully.

🏈 I'm not embarrassed to say I have no idea what Drake ‘Drake Maye’ Maye means.

🏀 Special was the word that came to mind watching freshman Braylon Mullins put up 17 at Kansas Tuesday night, just his second career UConn game. This is an entertaining UConn team, and with a healthy Mullins, a team that should go deep into March

🎙️ It’s entertaining, but it would have been much more entertaining if Fred Toucher took shots at Rich Shertenlieb like this when they were still working together

👀 As a Day One Fiets and “Saturdays Are For the Boys” fan, this was shocking.

🏀 The dream of Celtics tanking, getting a lottery pick, and Jayson Tatum coming back 100% next season? Those are dead. The Eastern Conference is too pathetic to tank. I just hope the team does not allow Tatum to rush back, and I remain much more concerned about his health than what seed they get in the playoffs.

I think that’s enough Stack for today.

No Drake Maye this weekend. Boo. Good luck with all your bets, regardless. And thanks for reading.