Friday Four-Pack 12.6.24

Bill Belichick signals a return to coaching. I was banned from a popular podcast. The latest on Juan Soto to Boston. Boston Sports Radio gossip and NFL Picks!

Credit where credit is due - it’s a funny line from former NFL receiver Antonio Brown.

The biggest story in the sports world Thursday was the news Bill Belichick had interviewed for the University of North Carolina football job.

One report said of Belichick and UNC, “He blew them away in the interview.”

College football insider Brett McMurphy told Nick Kostos he believes Belichick would not have taken the interview if he didn’t want the job.

Are there some reasons to possibly connect Belichick to UNC…I guess. His favorite player of all time, Lawrence Taylor, played there. Maybe he’s heard from Nick Saban or Bill O’Brien about how great it is to coach college football. But is there any real chance he ends up coaching at Chapel Hill? Absolutely not.

He’s not dealing with NIL or the transfer portal bullshit. He won’t have the budget to bring in all the coaches he would want to bring in. He certainly can’t break Don Shula’s win record by beating up on Boston College and NC State. Bill Belichick spending his mid-70s coaching in the ACC does not make a lot of sense. And UNC going from 73-year-old Mack Brown to the 72-year-old Belichick doesn’t make much sense, either.

Full disclosure - I am neither young nor single. But I know enough about the Internet to know that if you are young and newly single and open to a new relationship, you’ll sometimes post a thirst trap, a type of social media post intended to entice viewers sexually.

This interview with UNC is Bill Belichick’s coaching thirst trap - he’s letting NFL teams know he’s open for business.

Because even if he wants to, he can’t be linked to NFL teams right now. He has NFL media commitments that he’ll want to hold on to through the end of the regular season. But this lets everyone know that in no uncertain terms, Bill wants to come back to the NFL. And he wants to come back next year.

There will be MANY openings. I don’t know if he’ll be No. 1 on everyone’s list given the Ben Johnson buzz, but he’ll be No. 1 on at least a list or two. And by interviewing with UNC this week, he’s telling those teams to plan on him being available in a little over a month.

The biggest short-term fallout from this will be how Belichick approaches his media duties over the next six weeks. Will he really be 100% honest in his assessment of players and or teams he might be working with next season? I could see Bill toning down any real criticism or praise now that he’s shown his cards to everyone and is planning to return to an NFL sideline in 2025.

Glenn Ordway has been in both professional and social settings with Belichick for 20 years. Last week he predicted on the MutStack Podcast that Bill would be back on an NFL sideline next season.

By interviewing with UNC - his own little coaching thirst trap - Belichick is confirming Glenn’s opinion and letting the rest of the NFL in on his plans.

Meanwhile, Bill’s social life continues to be a big deal, making a red-carpet appearance with his 24-year-old girlfriend Thursday night.

I hope those two love birds enjoy their time together this Christmas season. Because there’s no doubt Bill will be once again knee-deep in an NFL coaching job during Christmas of 2025.

Meanwhile, I was banned from a podcast. Some fresh Boston sports radio gossip. The latest on Juan Soto and the Red Sox. And Week 14 NFL Picks. And MORE!

All part of today’s Four-Pack.

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On being banned for a year from The Kirk Minihane Show…

🎥 Kirk Minihane Show

How many people can say they have been banned from a very popular podcast for a year because a random contest winner said so? It’s gotta be a pretty small club.

On Tuesday, I joined that club, banned from the Kirk Minihane Show from December 3, 2024, at 9:58 AM until December 3, 2025, at 9:58 AM.

I did not see this coming.

I was not banned by a host, a producer, or some program director. No, I was banned by KMS listener and X.com user PG31684. Mr. PG31684 won a Black Friday merch contest where one of the prizes was the ability to ban one rotating co-host of the show for a full calendar year. Having been on the show 27 times in 2024, I did not expect to be a candidate for banning.

I was wrong.

PG says he is doing it for my own good, suggesting it will spur me to get some sort of full-time employment.

It’s called MutStack.com….subscribe for free.

Am I annoyed? Yes. I love the show and the energy and the fans. But this is why KMS has one of the most rabid followings in the podcast world - because this would never happen anywhere else. Was I a baby at the end of my appearance last week? Also, yes, which was a shitty last few words to say for 365-plus days.

You don’t often get the chance to ask the contest winner who banned you from a podcast for a year some follow-up questions, so I reached out to PG31684 on Thursday. I asked him if he had any guilt about banning me from a show I enjoy being on.

“Hey Mut, how’s it going? As a matter of fact, yeah, I do have some guilt.”

That was the only response I received until Friday morning when PG detailed his decision-making process.

“Honestly, I was thinking about what I’d do if I was called the night before. I didn’t really consider anyone else. I’ve obviously never gotten into the KMS world online, and I haven’t really listened to many of the other network shows, so I didn’t consider any of those characters.

Like I said, I’m 40 years old and I listened to WEEI pretty religiously. I’ve been listening to Kirk since Dustin Pedroia challenged him to a fight on December 27, 2012. And I’ve been listening to you for even longer. I’ve been a huge fan of yours on the show as well. I’m sure people think I’m full of shit when I say that considering I banned you. But from leaving WEEI to turning down the BarStool offer, to the Mohegan show, (Editor’s Note - The highly acclaimed Sportsbook Live from Mohegan Sun), I felt it was in your best interest to temporarily part ways with the show so that you could focus on finding your next endeavor.”

I’ve gotten this a lot recently. From PG, Kirk, Ordway, concerned friends and family. The flexibility of working events, publishing MutStack (97 consecutive weeks), and generally ‘working’ at home over the last 24 months has been beneficial for our family. Am I getting rich? Nope. But in the long run, it will be a good thing.

I’ve made plenty of mistakes since being fired from WEEI. It’s cliche, but I have to try and learn from them and hopefully, I will.

As for the one-year ban from the greatest show on the planet, it means more time for others on KMS. If it were up to PG31684, he tells me Mike Geary (Blind Mike) would become a full-time member of the show for the next year. I’d be all for that, too.

Either way, I’m banned for a year, so I won’t be on the show. But I’ll be watching and listening.

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On a brutal moment for horse racing…

Fair warning….the video is not awesome.

When I came across the stretch drive and the call of Tuesday’s fifth race at Parx on X.com, I immediately texted my friend and Parx race caller Jessica Paquette and told her what a great call it was.

Winner National Law drifts out massively late, and Jess called the action beautifully as the second-place finisher stayed glued to the rail. Just a terrific call. Who knew video from after the race would be the biggest story in racing this week?

That video is above, where jockey Paco Lopez winds up and smacks National Law across the face with his whip. Some, including trainer Jorge Duarte, Jr. came to Lopez's defense on Twitter: "Jockeys are the toughest athletes. We have mental health involved already anyone who saw the whole stretch run would say Paco was outstanding keeping the horse safe. We need to focus on things that matter." (Durante has since apologized for defending Lopez.)

I guess that was the defense from some in the sport - that Paco Lopez was trying to teach the horse not to drift out. It’s a pathetic defense. And as my Mohegan Sun Triple Crown co-host “Big A” Anthony Stabile pointed out on X.com, “This is not "in the heat of the moment," as he said in "his" apology today. This is premeditated. Standing up, winding up, striking.”

Yes, that was part of the apology from Lopez and his team, who said additionally he would take “time away from racing and, in the path of several of my fellow riders, seek appropriate counseling and work on myself.”

That might be partially true. But as one of the smartest people I know in racing pointed out, it’s also true that this was probably part of a deal with HISA (Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority) to take responsibility and go away for a while. HISA suspended Lopez indefinitely the day before.

Lopez has multiple suspensions on his resume for “careless riding,” including two suspensions that spanned 90 days in 2019. The veteran jockey has caught the ire of gamblers for rides where he appears to stand up and stop riding before the wire. And in 2021, fellow jockey Irad Ortiz tried to fight Lopez after an incident at Gulfstream.

It’s been a brutal year for horse racing. It feels like every headline is negative. It’s getting harder and harder to defend the sport - especially when as a gambler it seems like the industry is making it harder and harder to fairly gamble on what is a gambling game at its core. No gamblers = no horse racing in the United States.

I don’t know what the proper punishment for Lopez would be. Billionaire owner Mike Reople took to X.com and said (before Lopez was suspended) he’d be taking Lopez off the mount he had on the Reople-owned Battle Drum this weekend. Owners not riding Lopez might be the only thing that gets the message across that these actions are not acceptable - the frequent suspensions have not done the trick.

A good gesture for Lopez would be donating a percentage of all his earnings for the rest of his career to various Thoroughbred Aftercare programs. Have him spend time working with those groups and advocating for the safety of our equine athletes. That and a good, long suspension away from the game.

Add Lopez’s actions to the list of bad headlines for a sport that’s had a bad year.

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Week 13: 1-2 /// Season Record: 20-19 (51%) 🤢🤢🤢

That right there was the difference between 2-1 and 1-2 last week—a meaningless kneel-down in OT to set up the game-winning FG for the Bucs.

Ten yards rushing down to eight yards rushing. We had the O9.5

Pain.

Scoreboard is scoreboard - we’re treading water here. Meanwhile, we’re 10-3 the last month-plus in our Sharp Hunter Primetime Plays in the Betting Life Newsletter. Here…not nearly as good.

Let’s be great in Week 14.

The Side 🏈
CHIEFS -3.5 VS CHARGERS

Have not been able to say it much this season, but I like the board this week. I could have made a case here for SEA getting points at ARZ. Or CLE catching 6.5 at PIT. Some decent numbers are available as of Thursday afternoon.

But I’ll end up on Kansas City. And this is as much a bet against the Chargers as it is a bet on the Chiefs.

KC is finally getting healthy. Isaiah Pacheco came back last week and looked like himself. The LAC defense is just middle of the pack against the run (#15 DVOA) and has given up catches and receiving yards to opposing backs in bunches. I won’t be shocked when Pacheco and or Kareem Hunt have good days catching the ball. And while their overall defense is ranked #6 overall DVOA, they’ve benefitted from a weak schedule - DVOA says LAC has had the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL.

The Chargers are coming off one of the flukiest results you’ll ever see - FTN gave them a 3.4% win expectancy for their “W” over the Falcons. They can’t run the ball and their only weapon (Ladd McConkey) is dealing with shoulder and knee injuries and his status seems very much in doubt for Sunday Night.

Chiefs played Friday so they have extra rest - Andy Reid 57% ATS on extended rest the last 11 seasons. Chargers played in Atlanta Sunday and now travel to Kansas City for a Sunday Night game.

I don’t care that the Chiefs are 0-6 in their last 6 ATS. They are the healthier and better team and I’m excited to bet them on Sunday Night.

The Total 🏈
SEAHAWKS AT CARDINALS UNDER 44.5

I’m done chasing these TEN unders, which means Jags/Titans under is a lock this week.

We scored on SEA as a side winner last week and we’ll play the UNDER in SEA/ARZ this week.

One of the reasons we liked the Seahawks in Week 12 was their improved defense - it’s clear rookie HC Mike McDonald found something during the team’s bye and you can see that improvement in their rapidly rising DVOA ranking. Arizona has had a similar defensive renaissance - they’re up to #12 (SEA #11). In their last three home games, they’ve allowed ZERO offensive TDs.

The Seattle offense has also played much slower out of the bye - 7th slowest offense in FTN’s snap/sec metric. On the other side, Arizona has the ball for long stretches of the game but ends up with FGs, not TDs.

Trend is Our Friend: This from the Action Network—Divisional Games in Week 11 or later with a total of 44.5 or higher = 59% to the UNDER

I always like it when my ideas line up with the sharps at Sharp Hunter and they show this game as a Two-Bag Sharp Score (💰💰). UNDER.

The Prop 🏈
Aaron Jones UNDER 14.5 carries (BetMGM +100)

Over the last four games, teams have only been running the ball and average of 14.5 times against the Falcons. But they have allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs this season. I can see Jones being involved in the passing game, but both Cam Akers and Ty Chandler seeing touches out of the backfield. If the Vikings cruise here, we’ll be holding on to our butts in the fourth quarter hoping for carries from the two backups. Falcons allowing the 8th fewest carries per game this season. +100 seems fair at BetMGM.

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On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

Photo by Matt Botsford on Unsplash

➡️ As Sports Radio WEEI has tried to rebuild its brand and improve its dismal ratings, they’ve made repeated attempts to bring in established radio voices.

Audacy’s Market Manager for the Boston region, Mike Thomas, reportedly flirted with the idea of bringing in Rich Shertenlieb after he left 98.5 The Sports Hub. Shertenlieb would end up at Boston’s Classic Rock 100.7 WZLX, where he would last less than six months before being fired.

Multiple sources told MutStack.com that Thomas then set his sights on The Boston Globe’s Chris Gasper, who also hosts various shows on 98.5 The Sports Hub. It’s plausible that Gasper would have been the main voice on a revamped afternoon drive show. He did not make the move and is still with The Globe and The Sports Hub.

We can add another name to the list of 98.5 The Sports Hub hosts that WEEI at least approached about a role with 93.7 FM - Cerrone Battle.

I was told by multiple sources at both WEEI and The Sports Hub that WEEI approached Battle about an unspecified position with the station. WEEI does not have a full-time night host right now, so maybe that was the idea. It’s also conceivable that Battle could have been a piece of a new show in afternoon drive.

Battle joins Joe Murray for Celtics postgame reaction, in addition to hosting on weekends and in a fill-in capacity on weekdays.

Last year, Mike Felger highlighted Battle as an up-and-comer in Boston Radio. “I think Cerrone Battle in the f-ing the man!” Felger exclaimed during his Off-Air Show. When I’ve heard him with Murray, he’s been good on the Celtics - and willing to be critical when necessary.

I’m told Battle and WEEI talked briefly, but no move was made…for now. Sounds like it could still happen, but I don’t have all the details.

WEEI is shorthanded, putting producers into multiple on-air shifts as hosts. It’s clear they need more bodies but given Audacy’s bankruptcy and new ownership, there are questions about how they can spend money to bring in talent.

Shertenlieb. Gasper. Battle. WEEI has tried to bring in some newer voices but has so far been unable to close the deal.

➡️ Boston Radio's fall ratings book closed this past Wednesday. It covers 12 weeks and is arguably the most important book of the Neilsen rating cycle.

A few weeks from now on the day after Christmas, we’ll get the ratings for those 12 weeks. As it relates to sports radio in Boston, 98.5 The Sports Hub will win the book convincingly among the sports radio target demo of Men25-54. WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show will again finish second among M25-54 in morning drive. Jones & Keefe will show a notable improvement in middays over the show they replaced (Gresh and Fauria), but still finish well behind The Hub’s Zolak and Bertrand.

In afternoon drive, Felger & Mazz will win and win big. Their main competition - The WEEI Afternoon Show - has had weekly ratings registering in the 1s among M25-54. Joe Murray’s solo show will also win big at night.

More on this when we get the full fall ratings, but with the shockingly low recent weeklies, it does feel like WEEI decided to essentially punt off afternoons and nights for the fall…which seems CRAZY during football season in a market like Boston.

You can’t flip Jones and Keefe back to afternoons, so I’m sure we’ll see a concerted effort to find a new voice (voices?) for 2-6 PM early in 2025.

Does WEEI have the money to bring in a big name? Will it be someone from rival 98.5 The Sports Hub? It’s a story we’ll continue to cover here every week as we get more information.

➡️ It’s been eight days since Mick Marks, aka BeyondAvgMick, stole the show on Turkey Day with his report that The Red Sox would sign star free agent Juan Soto. After some initial national pushback, this week the local Boston media did some pushing back of their own.

WEEI’s Christian Arcand seemed to mock Mick and his report. Both Tyler Milliken and Steve Perrault of the Jared Carrabis-led Section 10 Podcast also took shots at Mick and his report. Meanwhile, Chris ‘Mad Dog’ Russo agreed with Mick and said this week he believes Soto ends up in Boston.

I reached out to Marks to get his reaction to the last week-plus since his report.

It’s been interesting to say the least. I’ve quickly learned that part of breaking stories is dealing with the blowback. I don’t have an issue with people in the media questioning my reporting. It’s part of the deal. But I do have a problem with those who claim that I’m doing this all for the clicks. I’m not. I believe in my sources or else I would’ve kept my mouth shut this entire time.

I said it last week, but I am rooting for Mick to be right. I asked him for the latest when we exchanged messages on Friday.

We’re close. Originally, I expected it to be done by yesterday. That was based off the information I heard from a very strong source. Today, I’m told the deal is still in place and agreed on by both sides. Nothing has changed there. There are rumors floating around that Boston is trying to add another piece to go along with Soto. Which could be reason for the delay in announcing the news.

Soto to Boston would be big. Mick breaking the news before anyone else would be just as big.

➡️ One theory about why the Red Sox have not yet announced their new radio voice - The Sox want Lou Merloni to do more games on NESN. As we’ve written for months, with the team taking over control of the radio booth, it’s likely WEEI and NESN will share color commentators this season. You’ll have former players going back and forth between the TV and radio booths. If Lou is going to take a larger share of the TV action, you have to then figure out all the other pieces after that - both TV and radio. And if you’re adding a few new voices, that adds to the negotiation timeline. I expect Dave O’Brien as the NESN PBP guy, Will Flemming as the WEEI PBP guy, and former players working both TV and radio. But when do we get an official announcement? I have no idea.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Back Sunday morning with NFL betting updates. Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.