Friday Four-Pack 12.8.23

A wild sports betting theory. Al Michaels has pointed Belichick comments. Belmont at Saratoga. NFL Picks!

I’ve seen the data. A majority of you don’t click the video.

Please, so we can all laugh together this Friday, click the video. It’s the middle of an interview where a market analyst says all the dudes betting on sports could have a major affect on the housing market.

Seriously.

63% of you young men out there are single.

50% of you have no interest in dating.

And 30% of you have not had sex in the last year “and don’t seem to care”….

BECAUSE YOU’RE ALL TOO BUSY FIRING OFF THOSE THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL SAME-GAME PARLAYS!!!

At the end of the clip, the ladies catch some shrapnel too, for “going to Taylor Swift concerts and making it all about themselves.” A wild ride. In the end, betting on sports and Taylor Swift IG stories are going to be to blame for a bad housing market next year, according to Meredith Whitney.

This comes during a week when a couple went viral for bragging about never wanting to have kids. Maybe the guy in the video really likes betting on his phone and can’t be bothered to procreate?

Of course, people have been betting on their phones with offshore books for a decade-plus. And they’ve been playing fantasy sports on their computers and phones for like 25 years now. And yes, there’s a bigger story here about how our society is now pushing people not to have kids and big tech and Elon Musk’s recent comments…but let’s not bury the lede here.

You guys are out there not having sex because you’re on your phones betting on sports. And you’re going to ruin the housing market.

Love it. As always, blame sports betting.

I thought Al Michaels was pretty pointed in his Bill Belichick commentary last night. That and a lot more in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the Patriots 21-18 win over the Steelers…

Are there Patriot fans who enjoyed that?

I was not one of them. I’m rooting for the losses and the Top-2 pick. Those get my juices going. Competitive games that are ultimately, losses. Great. But not the wins.

As of this morning, the Patriots are still in line for the No. 2 pick behind the Bears. They own the current strength of schedule tiebreaker over the Cardinals, so if they end up with the same amount of wins as Arizona they get the better pick. I think?

Falling out of that Top 2 would be a disaster. And by winning Thursday that’s now more in-play.

My biggest takeaway from the game was the broadcast - Al Michaels was great. He’s taken so much shit this year from the Internet about his performance. And some of it is fair - there have been moments he’s not seemed as engaged. I get that.

But he and Kirk Herbstreit did a really good, third-quarter, sports-talk-show-like segment on Bill Belichick. They actually posted a graphic of recent draft picks, many of which did not work out. Herbstreit pointed to roster construction/talent as the biggest issue for the team.

And then Michaels added this commentary.

“Look he (Belichick) got all the power after he won that third Super Bowl. So he was the coach…even though you had other guys in that office who were important…Nick Cesario, Ernie Adams and other people…it was Bill who made the ultimate decisions.”

Whoa. Almost like he was saying this is all on Bill.

You get this on Felger and Mazz and on Twitter. You don’t normally get in on an NFL Broadcast.

Listening again Friday, it felt like Michaels had talked to someone pretty high up on the team’s masthead. Maybe the owner?

Just very rare to get opinion stuff like this on these league broadcasts. If you have Prime you can watch back - the five-minute mark or so third quarter.

You also had Michaels openly speculate on Belichick and Tom Brady in the same broadcast booth. Sign me up.

I’ll give the Amazon production crew credit as they had clearly made a point to do this segment. Well done.

As far as the game? Bailey Zappe made a few nice plays but come on. He stinks. Was awful in the second half. He tried to give the game away. Refs missed more calls. I was wrong about Mitch Trubisky being sort of good. I was wrong about Zeke Elliot being washed. Zeke might have saved the game with his hustle on that Pick 6 chance for the Steelers. Never back Mike Tomlin against an inferior team. The under was dead early. Zeke overs easy money. Mike Gesicki is dead to me. One yard, Mike. One.

We’re you really rooting for a Pats win, though? Comments open below to discuss.

At least we can focus on RedZone this Sunday.

On the 2024 (and likely 2025) Belmont Stakes being run at Saratoga…

What was long-rumored became official this week. Due to the massive renovations at Belmont Park, the third leg of racing’s Triple Crown will be run upstate at Saratoga Race Course in 2024. And while still unofficial, it sounds like the plan is to run the race in Saratoga again in 2025.

This is a big deal for racing. The Triple Crown is steeped in tradition. The Test of Champion is run at a taxing mile and a half distance - one that most horses will never try again.

Except thanks to the track dimensions at Saratoga, the Belmont will be run at a mile and a quarter. And the Met Mile will be run out of the Wilson Chute.

To this fan, these are minor inconveniences at best. And assuming a normal return to the “new” Belmont Park in 2026, no big deal at all.

I wanted to get a few different perspectives on this.

For me, the fan/handicapper/content whatever….It’s great. But it’s going to be very expensive if you want to go. Hotels were snatched up pretty quickly the last 72 hours. But the group texts planning the trip have already started on my end.

There’s less space in Saratoga v. Belmont, but I’ve found recently that even packed Travers Days have been okay to navigate if you know where you’re going. Even with kids. Assuming the cap stays at 50,000 fans, again similar to Travers and Whitney Days, it should be okay.

If there is a Triple Crown on the line, the city itself will be a wild scene.

But beyond that, the chance to see some of the best races run all year take place at the best track in the country? It’s hard not to be excited.

Charles Simon is a former horse trainer who now talks and writes about racing - both on Substack and his newest venture, RCNHhub.com. He’s not shy about sharing his opinions. Even when they don’t align with the sport’s company line.

I’ve come to really appreciate his honesty, especially during what has been a rough year overall for the game.

I asked for his opinion on the Triple Crown move.

“Let’s be clear, the Belmont Stakes distance won’t be charging permanently, once the extensive renovations are completed in Elmont, the race will be heading back to its normal place on the calander, at its usual distance. There is zero chance that NYRA, after successfully lobbying the state of New York for a $450 million dollar loan to rebuild Belmont Park, will not start and end their signature race in front of its shiny new grandstand. There has been no talk of changing the circumference of the main track, especially with three new courses inside of it but I suppose that it’s natural for racing followers to be paranoid considering the murky transparency that generally exists in Thoroughbred racing circles.

What’s been lost in the consternation over distances and general malaise towards any move that NYRA makes in some circles, is the potential for the unique awesomeness of a 4 day racing festival in June at Saratoga. June weather at the Spa is much kinder on the heat scale and it’s difficult to argue that the lead up to the big day will be a lot more interesting at Saratoga than the old Belmont. Yes it won’t be cheap to show up(hotel rooms that week reportedly in excess of $1000) but the great thing about racing at Saratoga is you can have a whole lot of fun at the races without sitting in a suite or box. Yes running the Met Mile out of the Wilson Chute makes one feel queasy, even if the name of the chute isn’t connected in any way to disgraced Jets QB Zach Wilson or former jockey Rick Wilson.”

It’s part of a larger piece he’ll have later this weekend. Looking forward to reading it, as usual.

Jay Fitch is a business owner in Saratoga, who along with his brother Adam co-owns Kings Tavern and Saratoga City Tavern. Kings is right across the street from the track, off the East Ave entrance. Saratoga City Tavern sits at the epicenter of the city’s nightly social gathering ground, Caroline Street.

“It’s going to be amazing, but also bittersweet,” Jay told me this week. “We’ll all want it (in Saratoga) every year. I think this one is going to be one for our generation’s record book. The buzz around town is already ecstatic and we have seven months to go. Can’t wait to feel the vibe leading up to it. If American Pharoah coming to Saratoga was like celebrating Earth Day, Belmont in Saratoga is going to feel like Christmas. Not to downplay Pharoah or Earth Day.”

There are a lot of things to complain about when it comes to horse racing and the parimutal game. The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga is not one of them.

On our Week 13 NFL Picks…

Week 9: 3-0
Week 10: 0-3
Week 11: 3-0
Week 12: 2-0-1
Week 13 4-0 ✅✅✅✅
Season: 22-17-1

Terrific week for the MutPicks. Back-to-back weeks we took an under on a receiver prop and the guy had zero yards. Fun. But who cares, it’s Week 14.

The Side
BROWNS -3 V. JAGS (-105, FanDuel)
I’m admittedly not thrilled about backing Joe Flacco in 2023, but here we are. The Jags will go to Cleveland banged-up. Trevor Lawrence is unlikely to play as of this writing and even if he does, he’ll be hobbled. Christian Kirk is out, too. Even after giving up 36 points to the Rams, the Browns’ defense is DVOA #2 overall, #2 v. pass and #5 v. the run. I have a hard time seeing a gimpy Lawrence or crappy backup C. J. Beathard moving the ball here. We just saw Jake Browning scorch this Jacksonville defense. The weather looks pretty poor here, for what it’s worth. Could be an under play, too. -105 at FanDuel the best number Friday morning.

The Total
TEXANS AT JETS UNDER 33.5 (-110; DK).
The game opened closer to 37 and the bettors have smashed the under all week. And I totally get it. The Jets’ defense has been good even with the offense sputtering, allowing the second-fewest yards per play in the NFL. Of course, the offense generates the third-fewest yards per play on their side of the ball. They’ve scored just 58 points over the last six weeks! At 35.1 combined points per game, Jets totals are the second lowest in the league. Texans have been a good story, but we have a rookie QB on the road with no Tank Dell. Last four seasons - totals under 37 have gone 28-8-1. That’s about 80%. Rain and wind are in the forecast. Get the 33.5 while you still can.

The Prop
QUEZ WATKINS UNDER 17.5 REC YARDS (-114, FanDuel). Fringe third receiver in an offense that has two alphas in Brown and Smith. Dallas Goedert back this week. He’ll see targets. FanDuel with the best number IMO.

On a few Four-Pack leftovers…

• Credit to the Boston Herald - they realize people care about the rumors and gossip of sports radio in Boston. Rick Sobey wrote this week about Kendra Middleton interviewing for the vacant Shertenlieb Seat on what was formerly Toucher and Rich. Middleton called into the old “Mut at Night” show a few times back in the day. She was in the mix for the update chair on The Greg Hill Show on WEEI. And is now a frequent contributor to 98.5 The Sports Hub. Middleton called it a ‘courtesy interview.’ Have no idea if that’s true, but it would be shocking if she was Fred Toucher’s new co-host. It won’t be as surprising when she has a bigger role somewhere at the station in 2024.

• I keep waiting to hear some new voices with Toucher on his show, but it’s been a rotation of Sports Hub part-timers as best I can tell. I’m sure he’ll take some time off at the end of the year, but the plan was a new show on January 2. In talking to radio people this week, nothing has moved me off the idea that the station’s own Rob “Hardy” Poole will be next to Toucher on that first show.

• Pretty impressive to see over 100k PPV buys for Barstool Sports’ reality show Surviving Barstool after Dave Portnoy removed the show from YouTube thanks to threats of “strikes” against the company’s account on the video platform. YouTube didn’t like my buddy Kirk Minihane saying he was going to blow up the home of host Jeff D. Lowe. A line that was clearly a joke in the heat of reality show battle - the two are friends. Rather than edit, Dave kept the show ‘as is’ and put it on PPV for $9.99. Fans responded. The bigger story of course is big tech being able to censor and limit your chances to make money on their platforms. Just because they don’t like what you say, do, or write. We’re not far from a lot more content being PPV, On Demand, etc.

A second mention of big tech here today. Probably a sign to wrap this up.

Quitely surpassed 3,000 subscribers here this week. Thanks to everyone who has taken a second to subscribe. Comments open below, as usual.

And thanks for reading.

Good Weekend.