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Friday Four-Pack 2.10.23
Red Sox Q rating, Super Bowl betting and even some audio!
Just overwhelmed by the response to last week’s Friday Four-Pack debut.
“I’m really surprised you can write.”
“Didn’t read but I’m happy for you.”
And my favorite
“Congrats on starting a sports blog from 2003 in 2023.”
Thanks to everyone who did read and or share. A reminder this is free and it’s a huge help if you hit the blue subscribe button. I still need to clean up some of the pages but things take time.
I thought about starting with the Brady/Belichick stuff from Brady’s podcast but at this point what’s left to say. If you truly believe that there wasn’t crazy friction between the two at the end of Brady’s time here and are using their recent lovefest as a way to finger-wag all the great reporting that happened in real time on the issue (Wickersham, Curran, etc.) … well I can’t help you.
Glad they are both taking the high road now but it doesn’t change how Belichick and the Pats blew it with Brady and his exit.
On to this week’s Four-Pack.
On Lou’s RedSox Tweet…
This is one of those things I would have loved to talk about on the air Monday.
Here’s Lou’s tweet from last week
From the last few seconds -
“It’s the only team in town where you get mocked if you actually think they’re going to win. It’s kinda weird like that. Which I get, I guess. That’s the way its been for many, many years.
Having done hours and hours and hours of Red Sox talk on the radio I feel uniquely qualified to respond to this. I think it’s a combination of two things.
There is a “baseball sucks” crowd. They exist. The Red Sox could go 162-0 but baseball sucks and the Sox suck and if you talk about baseball on the radio YOU suck. There are a percentage of active fans who tweet and call sports talk radio that feel that way. This is part of it.
There is a larger percentage of fans - actual Sox/baseball fans - who do not like this ownership group.
And I get it. From the baseball side… they have dinked around with the team way too much. It might make business sense to trade Betts and drag your feet on Devers…but the way the Xander stuff was handled publicly was an embarrassment. From the lowball offer to the “top priority” bullshit it was a never-ending spin cycle. A master-class in how to botch the departure of a star player. A likeable star player.
Being a big-market team that has acted like the Moneyball A’s doesn’t help the public perception at all. And oh yeah they’ve finished dead last in the division five times in the last 11 seasons.
Winning and spending money will help. Doing those two things will quiet some of the fans, no doubt.
Then from a non-baseball level…and Sox ownership and front office people would tell you it isn’t fair and maybe it isn’t but… the outside stuff hurts too.
Liverpool, the Penguins, LeBron …. the fact that John Henry hid for almost three years post-Betts trade only to pop up winter weekend and get boo’d by the fans out at MGM Springfield. Sending Sam Kennedy out there to spin everything for you.
It all comes across as unlikeable.
I mean… Sox fans were forced to celebrate the resigning of Devers. Why are we supposed to give the team credit for resigning a young star in his prime???? I thought John Tomase had a good column on that part of it last month.
So yes - I think as Lou alluded to in his tweet there are people rooting against the team.
I just don’t think it’s that weird - they’re rooting against an ownership they don’t care for right now.
On the mobile launch date for Massachusetts Sports Betting…
And here we go! Yesterday the Mass Gaming Commission and executive Karen Wells announced March 10th as the launch date for mobile sports betting here in Massachusetts.
There are potential regulatory hurdles for some of the operators to clear in the next month but for all intents and purposes, March 10th at 10AM you can officially start betting legally from your couch in your underwear.
And it sounds like if Draftkings (for example) is ready to launch March 10th and PointsBet (again just as an example) is not - no matter. They’re not waiting for everyone to start at the same time.
March 10th. 10AM. Crank it up.
My guess is most of these books will be ready to go anyways. And just in time to bet on March Madness which starts the following week. Beautiful.
As always we have to be reminded this is Massachusetts government we’re dealing with so there could be last minute snafus. But having this date as a target for the MGC and the sportsbooks…this is a big deal.
And with the mobile launch one month away sportsbooks now begin their battle to get you - the sports bettor - to sign up with them. And them only.
If you logged on to Draftkings in Massachusetts the last day or so, you got this:
When you go to the Wynn Bet (Encore) page for Massachusetts you see this:
And so it begins…PRE-REGISTRATION BONUSES BABY!!!
I should note Draftkings has already upped the ante here. When I opened the app Thursday morning it now had an ad offering $200 in bonus bets.
Expect to see a lot of this over the next few weeks. Customer acquisition will be the top priority for all these guys. A absolute barrage of ads on TV, radio, social media is coming. You will get sick of it. And they’re doing it because they all want all of your money.
If you’re just looking to have fun and bet a few bucks on the local teams - feel free to sign up for just one book. That’s what Draftkings is hoping for here - you’ll sign up with them and stick with them once it all goes live in March.
But as we touched on last week here - if you’re taking this at least a little bit seriously and are trying to get every edge you can betting on sports - you’ll be signing up for multiple sports books when they all go live next month.
We’ll try and keep track of the different bonuses here.
On Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline…
Hard to say at this point it was a great day for the current favorites for the title. Mike Muscala will provide some much-needed depth. And it’s not like they needed to do a ton here. They’re legit contenders.
But it seems like they are putting a lot of hopes and dreams into the buyout market. Someone like Danny Green makes sense. Does he want to play here? You’re going to be competing with multiple teams for the best players in that buyout market. Lot of pressure to bring in someone who can help win this year.
These “Title Windows” open and close pretty quickly. Brown or Tatum could wake up and decide they want out and poof - window closed.
Suns got better obviously. Bucks got Crowder. There is - and should be - pressure on Brad Stevens to get this team a legit piece via the buyout.
Tatum has blossomed into one of the best handful of players in the league. You don’t want to be the GM who didn’t win a title with a top five player on the roster.
RE: the coverage. As a consumer of sports media right and not really a participant …it was a little much. The Super Bowl didn’t exist on ESPN or Twitter yesterday. Even with a majority of the trades of the smaller, don’t seem to really have an impact variety. Felt like a lot.
On how we’re betting the Super Bowl…
Thanks to fellow UConn Husky and current Boston Herald Patriots beat reporter Andrew Callahan for having me on his podcast this week to talk Pats rebuild and Super Bowl betting/props. Click the link and give it a listen for Callahan’s insane trade proposal for the Pats.
As of this posting Friday morning the Eagles are still 1.5 point favorites, total 51. It looks like Wynn Bet (Encore) has actually gone to Eagles -2.
As far as PICKING the game - I’d be on KC. The Eagles had a pretty sweet path to get here - most recently getting Josh Johnson for most of the the NFC Championship. Between the possibility that Jalen Hurts is still banged up…the Eagles having the advantage of playing from ahead really all season…the experience edge on the field and the sideline for the Chiefs…and the best QB in the game being an underdog…Chiefs for me.
And with that in mind I’m on Mahomes to win the MVP at +125. Now +120 on DK. That’s my big prop stance this weekend.
Here’s why and some other prop ideas for Super Bowl 57 … in audio form! Just click the play button -
More audio and video to come.
So I’m in on KC here. But I wanted to get some prop ideas from a pair of sharp Eagles fans.
From sports betting PR maven Adam Rosenberg (@HeyRosenberg) who has been talking about this Eagles team all season
Miles Sanders ATTD +120/Miles Sanders TD in the 1H (+300)
I think they've been saving Miles for this game. He's shown all season he can handle the heavy workload and will be used early. 11 regular season TDs and 7 of them were in the first half. If you include the playoffs, he has nine 1H TDs. You're essentially getting his ATD at 3x the price if you do it this way.
Patrick Mahomes to throw an INT (-105)/Mahomes to throw 2 INT (+460)
Mahomes has the highest passer rating of all time at 106.1. He even has 115.5 rating in the playoffs.....except the Super Bowl. In two Big Games, his passer rating is 64.2 and he's faced a 49% pressure rate. He's thrown 2 INTs in both of the games. I love the value on him to throw 2 here but 1 is almost a lock in my opinion (he had 12 this year). Its somewhat gamescript proof because he throws them in wins and losses.
And from Sports Radio WIP host/producer Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) - a man who fires NBA same-game-parlays nightly and has been in Arizona all week with WIP
Jalen Hurts O13.5 longest rush
Spag’s is a big blitz guy. Could see Jalen burning him on a long run. He hit it last game against the 49ers so he’s HOT.
Who ya got? What props you firing on? Comment below let’s see some winners.
Thanks for reading.
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