Friday Four-Pack 2.14.25

Sox land Bregman and John Henry spikes the football. A horse racing issue the sport STILL has to fix. I'm ready to be a Birder. Media notes!

Feb 14, 2025

Pictured above, in what is probably a $600 pair of jeans, is Red Sox owner John Henry. His wife, Linda Pizzuti Henry, posted the picture on IG after news broke that the Red Sox had signed prized free agent Alex Bregman. It came with the caption, “John Henry deserves this cigar.”

If your response to this picture - either in your own head, on your social media account, or in a group text with your friends - resembled at all the following:

“JOHN HENRY GOT IT DONE! SAWX ARE BACK KID! LFGGGGG”

…then you’re an idiot. Respectfully.

Once an owner who spent money every season, cared immensely about winning, and occasionally answered questions from the media, the John Henry pictured above does not resemble the John Henry who owned the Red Sox from 2001 to 2019.

No, the newer version of John Henry was okay with the BOSTON RED SOX spending just 40% of the team’s 2023 revenue ($557 million) on team salary ($224 million) in 2024. Those numbers placed them bottom five in MLB on the “Scrooge Index,” which shows how much or how little of a team’s revenue goes back into player salaries. As a comparison, the mid-market Minnesota Twins were over 50%.

The recent 2004 Red Sox documentary on Netflix reminded us of a time when Henry was all-in. Signing Bregman is a nice start, but he’s not Juan Soto. The 2004 John Henry goes all out for Soto, price be damned.

Accountability to fans? For Henry? 0.0%. This Monday will mark the 5th anniversary of the last time Henry addressed the Red Sox media (and by extension the fans) as a whole: five years without taking questions about his stewardship of one of the most prominent and profitable teams in all of professional sports. Five. Years.

As a fan, how are you okay with that?

Sure, you should be excited about the Bregman signing. And going past MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax threshold. But does it mean the team will be all-in at the trade deadline and willing to add salary to the roster if they’re in the mix? We’ll see.

We should also note that Henry is lighting up a victory cigar over signing a player in free agency.

“We did it, Linda…we spent some of our money on a good player.” Congrats!

Maybe because Henry and the team have set the new bar so low with the fanbase, you’ll (they’ll) let this embarrassing picture slide—you (they) shouldn’t. One big-name signing does not erase the fact that over the last five years, the team has slipped in the standings (dead last in the division three times) and relevancy - thanks in large part to Henry’s unwillingness to spend.

So go ahead and be excited for your favorite baseball team. Go buy a Bregman jersey. Celebrate one of the best hitters on the market ending up in Boston.

Just don’t be so quick to celebrate an owner who finally decided to spend some money after years of promising to do so and then not following through.

Meanwhile, we answer all your questions about the Bregman signing. It’s a year later—and horse racing still hasn’t fixed one of its biggest issues. Where is the Red Sox announcement about their announcers? And I miss football.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the Red Sox signing of Alex Bregman…

You’ve got questions and I’ve got answers.

Is this a great signing?

It’s a very good signing. Bregman was the best right-handed bat available. The Sox made their offer, waited, and were rewarded for their patience in letting it play out. His career WAR (39.6) is 20th among all active players and Aaron Judge is the only player younger than Bregman ahead of him on that list. He has seven career home runs in just 21 games at Fenway Park and should mash there. Coming off a Gold Glove season, he should improve what was a poor infield defense for Alex Cora’s team.

Okay, so why isn’t it a great signing?

Well, his best seasons came when the Astros were cheating their asses off with those trash cans and camera system. Bregman’s OPS from 2017-2019 was .953 - he has not sniffed that number since then. His best days may have come thanks to, <cough> help <cough>.

And yes, he won the Gold Glove last year…at a position the Red Sox are probably not asking him to play. Reports have him ticketed for second base - he hasn’t played there since 2018. In fact, he’s only played third base since 2020. I would play him at third and tell Rafael Devers he’s the DH, but I’m not the manager. So we’re all projecting him to be as good defensively at a new position. We’ll see.

What about the money?

I love the contract. He can opt out after Year 1, giving him a reason to treat this like a contract year—that’s great for the Red Sox. If he does walk after a monster year, it probably means you made the playoffs—and you have other options at second base plus money to spend in 2026 if he signs elsewhere. After years of saying they’d spend and then NOT spend, the Sox were finally true to their word with this move.

Did the Red Sox win MLB’s offseason?

Traded for stud starter Garrett Crochet. Signed pitchers Walker Buehler, Patrick Sandoval, and Aroldis Chapman. Added Bregman late. Solid ‘B+’ offseason. Would have been a D+ without Bregman.

What’s the important part of the signing that no one is talking about?

Bregman and Buehler are co-owners in the racehorse March of Time. He’s a 4-year-old, so he’s not eligible for the Kentucky Derby. Both players are huge racing fans, and Buehler owned a micro share of Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Maybe they can get March of Time ready for the Vanderbilt on Travers Day in Saratoga. Or will he stay out west in California? These are the important questions the media needs to be asking two of the newest members of the team.

But seriously—hopefully Bregman is willing to take on a leadership role and mentor younger players (Tiston Casas) so that Alex Cora doesn’t have to do all the babysitting, as it felt like he did the last few years.

Are the Sox back???

Like, is there a buzz about the team among casual fans? I don’t know. Bregman and Crochet are big games in baseball, but the sport has continued to trend towards regionality, much like the NHL. We saw a few years ago that when the team is good, people still want to go to Fenway Park.

They’ll have a chance to grab the attention of New England sports fans after the Celtics’ playoff run eventually ends and before Drake Maye returns to Foxboro in August. We’ll see if after finally spending some money, they can do it.

On this crap still happening in horse racing a year later…

I originally posted this video a year ago, a few days after the 2024 Louisiana Derby Preview Day at Fair Grounds. The 2025 Louisiana Derby Preview Day is set for Saturday - and a full year later this type of extreme odds drop after a race starts is still happening in the sport.

And it still sucks.

As a quick review, drops like these are happening thanks to CAW (Computer Assisted Wagering) groups. CAW groups can manipulate odds through large, late bets, often leading to significant drops in odds right before a race starts. In most cases, the regular bettor does not see these odds change until after the race starts.

Because these groups bet so much and at such a high volume, they’re allowed to send in their bets right up until the last second, leading to massive odds changes. Additionally, these CAW groups benefit from huge rebates that normal customers don’t get. Those rebates actually raise the effective takeout (tax) for normal customers who don’t get the benefit of an awesome rebate program.

Imagine betting on the Patriots at +100. Then once the game starts, your sports betting app informs you the odds on your +100 bet have flipped to -140. Even if that bet wins, you feel like you’ve been robbed because you settled for -140 when you thought you were getting +100: this happens almost every day in horse racing.

I’d like to tell you there have been improvements over the last year, and the playing field has been leveled out, but I can’t. And it hasn’t. NYRA still prohibits the CAW groups from playing on the Late Pick 5, Pick 6, and Cross-Country Pick 5. And they cut off CAW play in the win pools with 2 minutes to post, allowing NY tracks not to deal with these odds drops in the win pool. Oaklawn had CAW barriers in place, but now that’s reportedly only in show pools.

Everywhere else? Nothing positive to report.

Mike Maloney, author of the terrific Betting with an Edge and a man who once bet as much as $14 million in a single year on horse racing, told TDN last month he’s betting less than ever and points to the CAW ‘advantage’ as a main reason.

The problems I have with the way the CAWs have been addressed is they are given other advantages besides the technology that they use. They are allowed to be the last mover in the way the betting operates. They get the last look at the odds. They can see things that I can't see and make decisions based on information that I can't act on. I can't make hundreds or thousands of bets in a second and they can. Racing facilitates that. I believe in embracing technology but as it operates today, it's not a level playing field.

If a smart guy like Maloney is betting less, it’s probably a sign for all of us to be betting less—and we have been.

It was a major headline when racing’s handle (the total amount of money bet) fell almost 4% from 2022 to 2023. Not to be outdone, the 2024 handle was down another $400 million from 2023—or another 3.35%. That equates to a handle dip of over 7% in the last two years…and that’s with all the CAW bets!

Just last year, sports betting saw a 23% increase in its handle, up to nearly $150 billion in 2024. Safe to say that many former horse players have shifted their focus to sports. And the industry has done little in response.

As the game continues to lose customers, the goal should be simple:

“Make racing better…for the bettor.”

One simple way—a starting point—would be for the industry to follow the NYRA model and prohibit the CAW groups from betting in the win pool with 2 MTP. Just doing that would drastically decrease the number of races that look like my video above - and those are the races that are hardest to explain to someone betting on horses for the first time.

“Wait, why is my horse 3/2? Wasn’t he just 3-1 going into the gate?”

Building that win-bet barrier at two minutes to post would not solve everything, but it would be a start. It would also show the human bettor that the sport takes them seriously and values their time, effort, and wagering dollars. Because without the bettors, there is no horse racing in America.

I wish someone would remind the industry leaders about that before it’s too late

On your sports media and sports betting notebook…

➡️ On Thursday, Lou Merloni was a guest on WEEI Afternoons. At the end of his interview, Andy Hart asked him a throwaway question about where fans would be able to catch Lou this year on the Red Sox broadcast.

“Well, I’m not sure that’s official yet,” Lou laughed as he tried not to break the news before both NESN and WEEI.

And it’s not going to be breaking news when the Sox finally get around to making the announcements. Both here and MassLive.com (Sean McAdam) have reported that Lou is slated to do “about 100 games” on NESN this season, alongside Dave O’Brien. Will Flemming will take over as the team’s radio voice, as retiring Joe Castiglione heads to Fenway Park’s “Legends Suite.”

But still - with game broadcasts starting next week in Fort Myers, what’s the hold-up in the announcements?

I’m told the delay is thanks to the rotation of other former players who will be doing both TV and radio. MutStack.com was the first to report (last year) that the Red Sox would be taking over the WEEI broadcast booth in 2025. Not only would they pay the talent, but also make the decisions on who that talent would be. Former players (including Lou) could rotate between TV and radio, allowing the Red Sox to mix and match talent on both platforms.

With Lou taking over the bulk of the games on TV, what does that mean for Kevin Youkilis? His contract was up after the season, but he has important fans in Red Sox ownership, who want to see him back. Can they make it work for him with a reduced TV schedule plus radio? Will Middlebrooks is set to do both, but how much radio? New voices like Jackie Bradley Jr., Brock Holt, and Rich Hill (if those two don’t sign with teams to play in 2025) are likely to be part of the player rotation as well.

All of this is taking longer to finalize and thus, no announcement—but that might come as early as Friday.

➡️ Sean McDonough has done 20 radio games a year over the last five years. I’m told it’s not 100% he’ll be back calling games in 2025. I do believe that Joe Castiglione will call a few games in the spring and the regular season, in addition to working with The Jimmy Fund and the Red Sox.

➡️ Former ESPN voice Pablo Torres got some online attention Thursday when he reported that Bill Belichick’s 23-year-old girlfriend, Jordon Hudson, has become Bill’s agent - that she runs his media, etc. This is something my friend Kirk Minihane has been talking about openly on his show for months #kirkwasright. But sure, keep telling me this, in addition to the 49-year age gap between the two, is not weird. 🙄

➡️ Tom Brady was just ‘okay’ on his call of the Super Bowl. He was much better in the hours leading up to it on the pregame coverage. But in-game, he did not offer much. The game sucked, that didn’t help. But we needed more insight into what the Chiefs could do to jumpstart their offense. We never really got it.

➡️ The Fox on-screen scoreboard (score bug) and virtual Bourbon Street background behind Brady and Kevin Burkhardt were both hideous.

➡️ One of the WEEI characters I still get asked about is Marc James. Up until this week, when I was asked where he was, I had to tell his fans I had no idea where he ended up after leaving WEEI a few years ago. But then came the news ‘Marc with a C’ is the new host of MJ in the Midday on 93.3 KJR in Seattle.

I tuned in for a few segments on Wednesday and did not hear any of that patented Marc James energy. I got clips of Klint Kubiac talking about the Seahawks’ offense for 2025. Hopefully, when he settles into his new market, we get some vintage Marc James.

On three non-sports thoughts for the people…

More than usual, I find myself depressed about the end of the NFL season.

Part of it, for sure, was my NFL picks record here this season. Counting the four public plays for the Super Bowl, I ended up a disappointing 31-36* (46.2%) 🤢
* - Total includes 8-1 ATTD winner on Foster Moreau Week 17

It did not help that I was so wrong about the Super Bowl. At least we can stop with the Mahomes/Reid G.O.A.T talk. What a no-show.

Lots to review and process in the offseason. But I’ll miss the work each week leading into Sunday and I’ll miss watching seven hours of NFL Red Zone with my boys.

The Kentucky Derby, NCAA Tournament, NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs, UFL season, the boys’ spring sports seasons, and hopefully a deep Celtics run will help fill the void.

But so will this.

I mentioned to my family how cool the new ‘video camera birdfeeders’ were and was shocked when I was gifted one for Christmas. I’m gonna be a bird guy. The AI Bird Recognition is supposed to be able to recognize up to 11,000+ species of birds.

Is this newfound love of birds tied to my dad never taking me hunting with him or some sort of mid-life crisis? Probably, but I’m here for it: ready to catalog some birds and start posting on Bird Reddit.

Saw Dogman (C-) with the family during the Super Bowl Sunday Bye Week and can 100% agree with a CT lawmaker who proposed legislation that would force theatres to say what time the movie ACTUALLY starts, after all the trailers. It was a 2 PM movie that started at 2:29. Twenty-nine minutes! Bullshit…and a sneaky way to get me to go spend more money at the concession stand.
There is really no stress of Valentine’s Day as a married adult. Real stress was being in 7th or 8th grade and working your way through Calire’s Boutique at the Pheasant Lane Mall trying to figure out what necklace or earrings to get your girlfriend. Hearts or no hearts? Silver or gold? THAT, my friends, was real stress.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Back tomorrow with a look at a pair of Derby Prep races scheduled for this weekend. In the meantime, your feedback is welcome in the comments or via message.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.