Friday Four-Pack 2.6.26
I think the Patriots will win the Super Bowl. Tom Brady made me sad. More bad award votes. Super Bowl bets, radio notes and more.
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
Quick update from San Fran. No Mut was not close to making the cut for the trip. He hasn’t worked nearly long enough for us and right now the Minihane Ship has all their ships parked at dock.
Lots of questions about Zolack skipping trivia last night. He had the Pats Welcome Party. Do I wish he told me earlier than 24 hours when he committed to it two weeks ago? Yes. But I can’t stay mad at Zo. I just chalk it up to him being a moron. I’m used to dealing with morons in my travels.
Today is the debut of Silver Syndicate at Oaklawn. This weather has screwed with his training so he probably needs a race. But he is a very good horse and may be good enough to win even without it. If he does’t run well today he’s an auto hammer bet for his 2nd. We have high hopes for this one.
Go Pats
#7
Note from Founder of MutStack.com, Mut:
Go Pats, indeed.
“Look, I don’t have a dog in the fight in this one. May the best team win. And in terms of the Patriots, this is a new chapter in New England. And I’m glad everyone has embraced the Mike Vrabel regime, all the amazing players that have worked so hard to get their club to this position. We did it for 20 years. There was a little bit of a hiatus in there, but the Patriots are back and it’s a very exciting time for everyone in New England.” - Tom Brady w/ Jim Gray on Monday
Hi. My name is Mike. I’m an about-to-turn-46-year-old father of two. And Tom Brady not at least suggesting he’s rooting for the Patriots on Sunday bothered me.
There, I said it. I feel better.
As of Friday morning, the most viral social clips coming from Radio Row at the Super Bowl from both WEEI and 98.5 The Sports Hub were related to Tom Brady’s unwillingness to say he’s rooting for his old team. So clearly, I’m not the only one who feels this way. Former players like Vince Wilfork and Asante Samuel both chastised Brady for the very political answer.
And I get it; there are some valid reasons for Brady to take that approach. He’s a broadcaster on Fox, and if they have a Patriots game next year, people will come back to this comment and say he’s “rooting for the Pats” in the booth. He’s a part-owner of the Vegas Raiders, a team about to hire Seattle’s Klint Kubiak as the next coach in Vegas. There are other reasons he might not want to do it, like he’s jealous of the team’s success. And/or Drake Maye’s success. I don’t consider those valid. And I don’t believe that he’s still mad at Robert Kraft for the way things ended here. Nope, don’t buy it.
Should it bother you, me, or anyone? Of course not! But like many of you, I invested significant time watching and rooting for Tom Brady. I spent HOURS on the radio defending him in those old Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady debates. And the insane Deflategate penalties. And the Patriots’ foolishness in not wanting to pay him at the end in New England. Hell, I defended the TB12 Method, freakin’ bought the book!
The Brady who used to win that great parking spot at Gillette Stadium, thanks to his offseason workout habits, is long gone. He’s been replaced by Brady Corp. He’s moved on from those glory days, even if we haven’t.
It’s been that way for a while. He cares too much about his brand - and his ownership stake in the Raiders apparently - to show some real emotion about the team he won six Super Bowls with. Or the coach who was his teammate for a bunch of those. Shit, Brady threw 10 career TDs to Vrabel - TWO IN SUPERBOWLS.
We love the athletes we root for. Well, most of them. And we want those athletes we love to love us back. In this case, it feels like Brady is saying publicly, “I’m over it.” If that annoyed you, it’s okay. As a 46-year-old man, I’m willing to admit it made me sad. And mad. Sad and mad. He’s still better in the booth than Tony Romo. He’s still the GOAT. But a little hat-tip to New England, Tom. That’s all we’re looking for. I guess that was too much for Brady Copr.
P.S - All will be forgiven if Brady does some “Let’s GOOOOOO” post Sunday morning.
Meanwhile, I think the Patriots can and will win Super Bowl 60. Drake Maye did not win the MVP. How I’m betting The Big Game on Sunday. And a Radio Row edition of MutStack Notes.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #158.
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On how and why the Patriots win Super Bowl 60…
And other assorted ramblings on The Big Game.
On Drake Maye not winning MVP…
What a way to end a terrible few weeks for awards voters.
Matt Stafford was named the NFL MVP on Thursday night. Should have known when his whole family was there for the event. I would have voted for Drake Maye, who had a better season and had fewer offensive weapons around him. Removing Maye from the Pats would have had a much bigger impact than removing Stafford from the Rams. Maye lost by just a few points in the closest MVP vote since 2003.
All of which was overshadowed by Sam Monson, who voted for Justin Herbert, who was not even a finalist.
At best, the first-place vote for Herbert was just a terrible vote from Monson. He spent much of Thursday night defending it, saying, “The guy had the worst offensive line in the NFL all season, and despite that, he was working miracles in almost every single game. Stafford's OL became 2/5ths as bad as Herbert's for 5 minutes, and he became a turnover howitzer.” Is there a “Working Miracles” stat I missed?
Of course, when you look at QBs under pressure, Maye was the best in the NFL. Maye also played in front of an OL with two rookies - the Pats are the first Super Bowl team ever to start two rookies on the OL.
So, yeah, maybe it was just a bad vote. But at worst, it was a clout vote just to gain some social media buzz. Which, for an MVP voter, would be gross. I don’t rule this out at all. Of course, Monson wrote a long article in 2014 titled, “Tom Brady is no longer a top-5 QB.” Brady was MVP, finished runner-up three more times, and won FOUR MORE SUPER BOWLS after that. So there’s a chance he just has terrible football opinions.
People are giving him credit for admitting it was his vote. Why? These votes should all be public. The guy voted for a QB who was 20th in EPA/Play this year, let the shame rain down upon him. And I have no idea if this swung the MVP vote or not - maybe he had Stafford second? I can defend Stafford winning; I can’t defend a Herbert vote. I’ll say it here for a third straight week, “If you’re going to ask fans to take awards and accolades like this seriously, the people who vote on it should probably take it seriously, too.” That also applies to the 2 voters who selected Josh Allen, too. 🙄
Mike Vrabel's Coach of the Year award was well deserved. As was Adam Vinatieri finally getting into the Hall of Fame. Watching the NFL Honors, it occurred to me how wild it would have been if we just found out last night that Belichick and Kraft didn’t get elected to the Hall of Fame. It would have been the only story on Super Bowl Friday - the league actually caught a break that leaked so early. Kraft, like Belichick, should already be in.
Between Maye not winning MVP, Kraft not getting into the HOF, and Brady not rooting for New England, Vrabel has significant ammunition for a pregame speech about disrespect if he wants it.
Justin Herbert, MVP…what an idiot.
On how I’m betting Super Bowl 60…
There will be a lot of money bet on the Super Bowl. A friendly MutStack reminder to please bet responsibly - this is supposed to be fun.
Wild Card Results 1-2 | Divisional Results 1-2 | Champ Results 0-4 (2-8 Playoffs)
The Friday morning odds at DraftKings are the same as they’ve been for about two weeks: Patriots +4.5 (-105), Seattle -4.5 (-115). Moneyline +190 and -230. Total 45.5.
Even if I were not a Patriots fan, I would be betting on the Patriots on Sunday.
From a football standpoint, I think the market is still underrating New England’s defense. If you include the playoffs, in games Milton Williams has played, they’re allowing just 3 yards per carry. Per Action Network, that would lead all of football over the last three years. This is an elite defense.
And they get to face a quarterback who turned the ball over a league-high 20 (!!!) times this year. For all the Sam Darnold love, he threw 14 INTs and lost six fumbles. Much smarter people than I say that Seattle Guard Anthony Bradford stinks. Reminder, the Hawks’ best pass-blocking back (Charbonet) is OUT. Seattle tries to protect Darnold with quick throws and rollouts. I don’t think those will be as easy against the Patriots. Between the Williams-led pressure and the tough-to-diagnose schemes, I think Darnold will struggle.
Drake Maye could struggle, too. The offense has been shaky at best over the last three weeks. This is where I’m relying on my faith in Josh McDaniels, who is coaching in his 10th Super Bowl. I think he’ll design plays to take advantage of Maye’s running game. The Seahawks have been vulnerable to TEs this season and have given up yards after the catch. Diggs, Henry, and Henderson (in the screen game) feel like guys who could be the focal point of the passing game.
I have been hammering the idea here and elsewhere that as the games mean more, Maye would be unleashed in the running game. That remains a key factor for Sunday.
Historically, over the last 22 Super Bowls, underdogs are 15-7 ATS. In the last 17 Super Bowls with a dog of 3+ points, they’re a solid 13-4 ATS. In Super Bowls of 4.5+ points, the underdog is 12-2-2 ATS in those games, covering 7 in a row. This is all Pro Patriot.
I mentioned Josh having been here before - I really like the idea of that experience paying off in this game. Same for Vrabel, as he played in Super Bowls. This game also gets us into Mike Vrabel as an underdog: Vrabel is 35-26-2 ATS (57.4%) as an underdog, going .500 ATS or better in all seven NFL seasons. When Vrabel faces a team with a 66%+ win pct, he is 17-10 ATS as an underdog, covering by 5 PPG, per Action Network. He and Mike Tomlin are the Gold Standard of underdog NFL coaches.
Just talking about betting, +4.5 is actually an easy bet to handicap and make based on the Patriots still-underrated defense, Darnold’s turnover potential, the history of 4.5-point dogs, and the team’s experience edge on the sideline.
Based on all of that, my biggest positions on Sunday will be, as of now:
Patriots +4.5 (-105) see above ⬆️⬆️
H. Henry 40+ REC YDS (-110)
Hawks allowed the 6th most yards and 4th most catches per game to opposing TEs during the regular season. 49ers (6/60) and LA (4/76) both had productive games out of the TE spot. Henry has two 100-yard games in the last two seasons - this year against a historically bad CIN D and last year against…Seattle. I’ll be laddering Henry as well. I think he can have a big game.
Drake Maye 40+ RUSH (+103)
Seattle was good against the QB rush this year, but faced just two of the top 15 rushing QBs in the league. Maye and McDaniels will take advantage of this.
A.J. Barner OVER .5 RUSH YARDS (+110)
He’s their short-yardage guy from the TE spot. Has hit this in three of the last four and NINE times this year.
Number of different players to attempt a pass OVER 2.5 (+185)
Has hit in three of the last four Super Bowls. Josh McDaniels loves a good trick play. Cooper Kupp and Mack Hollins have pass attempts in their career.
The rest of my DraftKings Card (fun, not close to full-unit bets)
Patriots ML (have this too)
Hunter Henry 1st TD Scorer +1400
C. Gonzalez MVP (+10000)
Milton Williams MVP (+25000)
Diggs MVP (+10000)
Drake Maye ATD +380
Darnold or Maye 300+ Pass Yards (+265)
Some great promos and boosts on DraftKings already, and a Live Millions Promo during the game on Sunday. Again, bet with your head, not over it.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ Craig Breslow said over and over that the Red Sox needed a real middle-of-the-order bat. And then, failed to deliver. That was the main topic this week on Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Plus some reasons Hog and I like the Pats on Sunday. Watch and subscribe on YouTube or listen and subscribe wherever you get your audio podcasts. Note the explicit tag, as usual.
🎙️I listened to a lot of sports radio this week. Probably too much. WEEI’s decision to send Ted Johnson and Wiggy to the Super Bowl was a good one. Former players stopped in, they made some headlines, and it worked out. I can’t tell whether Greg Hill really wanted to be there, to be honest. The MakeShift WEEI Afternoons featured a lot of “WE” talk, leveraging the emotion of having two ex-Pats there; it felt like a Patriots Pep Rally every day. A lot of Remember When Radio. Credit for getting Joe Milton first.
Zolak & Bertrand/Felger & Mazz did a much better analysis of the game. Z&B with Josh McDaniels, and then Mike Vrabel’s right-hand man, John “Stretch” Streicher, stood out. F&M with Mad Dog is always good. He’s a troll, but Jarrett Stillman as a Vrabel hater is pretty funny.
Admittedly, the Pep Rally/Remember When stuff is not for me. But I get it. Will the move have a big ratings impact? Doubtful.
🎙️ WEEI ended up benching regular afternoon hosts Andy Hart and Fitzy, using them as guests on other shows. If they bitched about it on the air, I didn’t hear it. Good for them; I would have been furious. So now they just go back to their normal shows on Monday?
🎙️ We did have some RADIO WARZ this week. As the Boston Herald reported, WEEI’s Chris Curtis called out Felger and co-host Jim Murray for “stealing sports takes” from Curtis over the years. Murray told the Herald, matter-of-factly, “As far as ‘stealing his takes’ well, that would require me having to listen to Chris Curtis, which I don’t.” In this case, Felger's comparison of Brady to Larry Bird was what drew Curtis’s ire. The common link is that both players were icons in Boston, but didn’t love the city or the team they played for after retiring.
Ken and Curtis is actually a good show, but come on, Chris. This is not some unique take, and I’m confident I’ve heard Felger (and others) make it before. Chris's reaction speaks to his own frustrations at WEEI and/or his ego, which he’d probably readily admit is a big one. He did famously say he “set the dialogue for the city.” Felger and Murray never responded on air, which is lame. I’ll say that I have heard Jones and Keefe take more open shots at The Hub. And Fred was shitting all over Hill and Curtis for their Mike Vrabel interview, so maybe we’ll get a real RADIO WARZ soon. We can only hope.
🎙️Mike Salk went on Felger & Mazz and blamed himself for shortlived Salk and Holley Show.
🔥 The best stuff I saw from Radio Row This Week: Andrew Callahan on Mike Vrabel in the Herald. The Tom Brady/Cowherd clip about Josh McDaniels. Jameis Winston on Barstool Live on Thursday. The Barstool Flag Football game.
🏇🏻 So yeah, very busy race weekend. Two Derby preps on Friday, then two more on Saturday. Plus Silver Syndicate debuts for Dave and Go Go Greys on Friday. I’m planning to go live on X.com on Friday at 2 PM EST to talk about the Friday races. Then recap those and preview the Saturday races in the weekly racing blog at Barstool tomorrow.
🏀 UConn/St. John’s tonight at the Garden is a hell of a way to kick off Super Bowl Weekend. Huskies have the quietest 18-game winning streak in college basketball history.
🏀 The Celtics trade of Simons for Vučević was a good one. I’d call them cheap for a bunch of trade deadline salary dumps, but they traded a bunch of guys who weren’t playing and got under the tax apron. I think that means they can sign buyout players now? Cavs got better with Harden, true. But a Tatum return would put them right in the mix for the East.
🙏🏻 A very nice remembrance of Kirk Minihane Show Friend, Rhymo, on Thursday in Dorchester. He loved the show, and it was clear his family appreciated that he found it and enjoyed it so much. What a character. He will be missed.
That’s enough Stack for this week.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Go Pats.
Calling it right now. Ice People will be the US Men's Hockey team from 1980 in this upcoming season of The Dozen.
I thought Brady loved the Krafts. I’m not so sure anymore. Maybe he wanted a piece of the Patriots before he bought into the Raiders and they told him to pound sand. Maybe not. I don’t know but it is disappointing to hear him say the “no dog” quote. I bet even Bird wouldn’t say that about the Celts. As a 57 year old man I was mad and sad too. Brady for years acted like he loved New England, he made me believe that he did. Maybe he’s a better actor than I thought. Good Stack this week Mut…LFG! And Go Pats!