Friday Four-Pack 2.7.25

Belichick and his sweetheart walk the red carpet. A UMass student gets screwed out of $10K. Super Bowl Weekend w/ picks + props. Media Notes!

To their credit, they stole the show.

Bill Belichick (72) and his girlfriend Jordon Hudson (24) were the social media talk of Thursday night’s NFL Honors show. Yes indeed, there on her left hand, one of Bill Belichick’s EIGHT Super Bowl rings: a legit #powermove from the handsome couple.

I get it. You’ll tell me it’s no big deal. That they’re in love. That if they’re happy, that’s all that matters and I should mind my own damn business. Fine.

It’s still weird.

It remains somewhat of a mystery how Belichick ended up at North Carolina and not back on an NFL sideline. And I wonder if a small percentage of the reason -maybe just 5% - is because the awkward age gap between him and his girlfriend will be less of a distraction at Chapel Hill than it would have been in the NFL spotlight.

His NFL players would have raised an eyebrow and shared text messages - their wives, too. Executives would have had questions. Sports Talk TV would have done segments about it. Hell, her social media posts would be turned into sports talk radio segments.

But college football feels…different. Opposing fans will be RUTHLESS and the signs on ESPN Gameday will be hilarious, but his players will be all-in because it’s still Bill Belichick - the Greatest Coach of All Time. And the school will be all-in because somehow, the best coach ever decided to do his NFL post-grad with their football program. The local media? Again, thrilled to have him in town.

NFL Bill would have had to walk a bit of a tightrope with this. But for Chapel Bill, the college coach, it won’t be a big issue…even if it is weird.

Meanwhile, Andy Reid is looking to close in on Belichick’s G.O.A.T status in a Super Bowl people seem bored by. A college kid has $10k stolen from him. Plus Super Bowl picks and media notes.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On this year’s lack of Super Bowl buzz…

“I’m not into the game…I’m burned out (on Chiefs and Eagles)…the game two years ago…by Sunday afternoon I’ll figure something out.”

I don’t get it.

That was great Christopher “Mad Dog” Russo on Felger and Mazz Tuesday afternoon from Radio Row at the Superbowl. And I’m hearing a lot of this.

Maybe it’s because these teams met in this game two years ago, as Russo mentioned. Maybe it’s Chiefs Fatigue - Mahomes, Kelce, Swift, the other Kelce, the wretched Bundle-Rooski Commercial (My kids LOVE it, we’re doomed) - it can be a lot. The perception Kansas City gets every call from the refs doesn’t help, especially when smart guys like Warren Sharpe can back that up with numbers.

On the other side, unless you're from Philadelphia, the Eagles (and their fans) have never been fun to root for.

BUT…this is the best quarterback on the planet trying to become the first QB since Bart Starr to win three straight NFL championships. Standing in his way is probably the most talented team in the NFL top to bottom. In a league that’s been built around passing for the last 20 years, they’re a throwback that wants to pound the football and play great defense to win. Rare in 2025.

If you’re a Patriots fan worried about the Chiefs somehow vaulting past the Pats in the NFL Dyntasy Rankings, or Mahomes being considered the G.O.A.T. over Brady, or even Reid passing Belichick - relax. Those titles are safe across the board, for now. A Kansas City win will inch them closer, especially Reid.

After Sunday, we go seven months between real NFL games. You’ll be BEGGING for the juice of Chiefs/Eagles in late May.

Greatness. Potential history. An even matchup. Tom Brady on the call for Fox. And plenty for you to just watch and root against if you want to play that game. Super Bowl LIX has all the ingredients you need for a monster championship game - and I’m not sure why Mad Dog and others aren’t jacked for Sunday.

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On a local college kid getting screwed out of $10k…

As a proud UConn alum, I guess I’m supposed to be programmed to hate UMass. I don’t hate UMass. Boston College? Different story, especially if you believe BC blocked UConn from joining the ACC years ago. 🤡 behavior. Anyway, this is not really about UMass, but a UMass student getting screwed.

UMass PBP voice Josh Schreiber posted this video Wednesday night of his friend doing something pretty wild at the UMass women’s basketball game.

Layup, foul shot, three-pointer, half-court shot all in 30 seconds—4 for 4. His prize? $10k! Great story, right!?

On review, the company that runs as well as insured the contest, Odds On Promotions, said his foot was on the half-court line on the contest-winning shot. He thinks he won. Clearly, the PA guy thinks he’s won and goes nuts, so he doesn’t even attempt another shot—which he would have had plenty of time to do.

It wasn’t until the next day the win was disputed. The winner received a message offering him a suite to a game, courtside seats, a $100 gift card, and the chance to be a contestant in the game again, among other “prizes.” It ain’t $10k, that’s for sure.

The student, Noah Lee, is taking it MUCH better than I would.

“At the end of the day, sure it really sucks with the money, who knows how that’ll play out with the $10,000,” Lee said. “But, these memories that we’ve all kind of made because of this event are pretty priceless and I’ll definitely remember these for quite a while

I don’t blame UMass here - I blame the Odds On Promotions company. And ideally, they would realize how shortsighted this is and pay Lee. He hit the half-court shot, even if his foot was on the line. UMass could step up and pay the student directly, which would be great PR for them. At the very least, they need to find a new promotion company to work with.

I’m not really in the business of rooting for UMass, but in this case, I’m rooting for Lee. He hit all four shots, line or no line. Odds On Promotions, UMass, someone - get the kid his $10k.

Update 2/7/25 11:31 AM - UMass says no matter what, Noah gets paid. Great job by UMass.

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Championship Round 2-1
Season Record: 30-33* (47.6%) 🤢🤢🤢
* - Total includes 8-1 ATTD winner on Foster Moreau Week 17

We’ll see if it flips between now and Sunday, but Sharp Hunter has been showing sharp bets on the Chiefs for the last two weeks.

I am happy to bet the Chiefs ML anywhere from -115 to -125. I bet it right away after the AFC Championship Game because I assumed the line would creep out to -135 closer to kickoff, as people realized they could bet on the best quarterback on the planet at a fair price in the biggest game of the year. As of Friday morning, that hasn’t happened. In fact, the total bet count and the money continue to pour in on Philadelphia.

The Eagles are very good, but their path to winning on Sunday goes through the running game and Saquon Barkley. With Barkey and that loaded offensive line, this team was built to run the football.

They had the #1 rush rate in the NFL this season (55.9%). And look it worked - the Eagles ran the fewest plays of any team in the NFL when trailing by 6+ points. They ran the ball to get the lead, then pounded the ball and time of possession to close out games—that was the winning formula all season.

So what if, on the biggest stage, they trail early? What if they get punched in the mouth? And what if they have to throw the ball more? That sets up for Chiefs’ DC Steve Spagnuolo to fire off blitzes at Jalen Hurts. The Philadelphia signal caller was mid-pack (16th) vs. the blitz this season, per DVOA. I like that matchup for the Chiefs.

And even if the Eagles can run the ball and get a lead (Chiefs #9 DVOA run defense), we’ve seen KC come back in the second half, led by Mahomes.

Some of the Mahomes’ numbers make it very easy to back Kansas City. He’s a silly 28-9-1 ATS as an underdog or favorite of three points or less (9-2 postseason). Action Network has Mahomes a career 14-1 SU in dome games (loss at Lions). I have him 16-1 SU in domes/retro roof games with 38 TD - 6 INT and a QB rating over 105. Since 2019, Mahomes is now 30-4 SU with 8+ days of rest. There are a ton of big trends in his favor—not to mention Kansas City has the coaching edge.

And on Sunday he’s got a full complement of receivers. The aforementioned coaching staff has had two weeks to prepare. In a game that feels very close on paper, he’s the quarterback I’d want with the ball in the fourth quarter.

And even if the Eagles are the better TEAM, I’ll take the better Coach/QB in a game that feels destined to be close. I’m betting on the Chiefs.

🏈 The Side
CHIEFS ML (CAESARS -115)

🏈 The Total
UNDER (TRYING TO WAIT AND GET 49, -110)

The Eagles and Chiefs were #1 and #2 in time of possession per drive this season. They were also #1 and #3 in plays per drive. The Eagles were #1 in time of possession—and we know they want to run the ball as much as possible.

Both defenses are led by veteran coaches who’ve had those two weeks to prepare. I could see this game being a struggle early, especially since Philly has been one of the lowest-scoring 1Q teams this season.

With one team that wants to run the ball, and another that loves to bleed the clock in the second half, (2H under in Chiefs games are a silly 29-11 last two seasons, highest % in the NFL), I’m happy to take the under here…even with so much talent on both offenses.

🏈 The Prop #1
XAVIER WORTHY O6.5 RUSH YARDS (CAESARS, -105)

A few trends. First, per VSIN, Andy Reid has now called a run play for a non-RB /QB in 20 (!!!) straight playoff games. Recently, Worthy has been his guy to get those carries. Not only does he have carries in 15 games this season, but he has multiple carries in four of the last six. In four Super Bowls, Reid is 4 for 4 in giving a non-RB/QB a carry. Worthy is in the vaunted Reid Circle of Trust and should get plenty of touches on Sunday. Here’s betting a few of them are runs and he pushes past 6.5 yards

🏈 The Prop 2
JALEN HURTS OVER .5 INTS (Bet MGM, +115)

Note that this number has been pounded down and was available at +140 a few days ago. My script has the Eagles forced to play from behind and pass more than they have all season. That should lead to increased pass attempts from Hurts in a trailing game script. That means more chances for an INT at plus money.

Did a full Super Bowl betting breakdown this week on The MutStack Podcast. Special guests Brad “Bomba” Bryant and Adam Rosenberg were great—a lot more game breakdown and prop ideas on the podcast. I hope you’ll watch, listen, and react.

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On your sports media and sports betting notes…

➡️ Let’s lead off this week’s notes with some good news for degenerate gamblers like myself. Thanks to a 3-2 vote by the Massachusetts Gaming Commission on Thursday, you can legally bet on the Super Bowl coin toss in Massachusetts. This was left off the betting menu in 2024, leaving degens (like me) to drive to the Home Depot parking lot in Nashua, NH to bet on tails…because of course, tails never fails. As of Thursday afternoon, this was already available to bet on the DraftKings mobile app in MA. You can not legally bet on the color of the Gatorade the winning team dumps on their coach’s head or the time of the National Anthem, but the coin toss is in play. Bill Speros had it first and has all the details.

➡️ Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi made his return to 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Hardy show this week. And he promptly took a shot at Rich Shertenlieb’s failed show on WZLX. Giardi was originally announced as a rotating co-host for Rich’s show and did a handful of in-studio appearances. But those quickly turned into phone-ins to the show a few times a week.

Charlotte Wilder, formerly of Dan LeBatard’s Meadowlark Media, was also named as an original co-host for the show. She made one appearance and never returned…and was never mentioned again. Very, very strange.

Getting back to Giardi - I was told this week that WEEI boss Mike Thomas was considering him for WEEI Afternoons 2.0 before going with Andy Hart, Fitzy, and Ted Johnson…another of the original Shertenlieb co-hosts. Giardi is good friends with Hart so it makes sense. I’m told Thomas settled on Johnson, thanks in part to his NFL playing career and because “he was a bigger name” than Giardi. He didn’t get that job, but Giardi joins the chorus of media members happy to dump on Sherterlieb’s failed show.

➡️ Speaking of Rich, he showed up randomly at Super Bowl media night to ask Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce wacky questions for a YouTube short. The video and the questions are cringy at best. And thanks to social media, they went viral, with The Daily Mail calling his questions ‘classless’ and others calling for his credential to be revoked.

It was a tough look for Rich and it led his former morning show teammate Fred Toucher to say he feels bad for Rich. Maybe it was to help land a new gig? Does a stunt like that work in 2025?

➡️ As for WEEI Afternoons 2.0, while I lamented all the Ted Johnson Storytime in last week’s newsletter, I’m told management loves it and is pushing for Ted to keep telling old Patriots/NFL Stories. It’s not for me, that’s for sure.

➡️ With games starting in two weeks, we still have no word on the official replacement for Joe Castiglione in the Red Sox Radio booth. I 100% expect it to be Will Flemming, but waiting this long to announce it is strange.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Today marks the second anniversary of the launch of this little newsletter and I’m thankful for all the support and feedback. Keep it coming, good and bad!

We’ll preview this weekend’s lone Kentucky Derby Prep, the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, over at StackCapping tomorrow morning.

Good luck with the Super Bowl bets. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.