Friday Four-Pack 2.9.24

Red Sox, Netflix and chill. Krafts pledge to spend. Super Bowl Picks and Props with a special guest!

It doesn’t make a lot of sense.

It was announced Wednesday morning that Netflix would chronicle the Boston Red Sox 2024 season, with plans to then air a documentary in 2025.

In addition, the streaming giant plans to air a separate documentary about the Red Sox 2004 World Series.

But let’s focus on the first part.

When the news broke on Wednesday, I just assumed that MLB and the Sox were being paid for this. I could understand that. The team’s ownership group is involved in what feels like a dozen different non-baseball ventures, why not add docuseries into the mix?

But according to The Athletic and Red Sox chief marketing officer Adam Grossman, there is no financial compensation to the team as part of the deal.

The Red Sox were adamant they would not be receiving any financial compensation from Netflix for the project.

“It truly is a marketing initiative,” Grossman said. “This is something that there’s no monetary component changing hands and this is really about getting more people under the tent through telling the stories in a way that they’ve never been told before on a really important and growing medium.

“What we are seeing across sports is there are more people out there that may be interested in sports and players, even if they didn’t grow up with the game,” Grossman added. “Part of that is the platform and the tools that are now at their disposal to bring people into a tent. And some of that is at Fenway Park, some of this will be on Netflix. Again, at the core, fans want championships, an incredible ballpark. We do, too. It’s just now, there’s just more opportunity to cast a wider net.”

So it’s just one big commercial for Fenway Park? I guess?

I don’t see how a team that has done little to improve off a 78-win, last-place finish in the AL East will make for compelling on-demand television.

Manager Alex Cora is heading into the final year of the current managerial contract. He might be the team’s biggest star not named Rafael Devers. Craig Breslow is in his first year as the team’s Chief Baseball Officer. As of Friday morning, there are still reports the team is trying to shed payroll before the season starts.

Is this really the best year to have camera crews following the team 24/7?

The answer is no, but the front office doesn’t seem to mind.

Sox CEO and spinmaster Sam Kennedy called this “One of the largest marketing initiatives we have ever undertaken.” Awesome. How about focusing on the on-field product rather than a season-long promotion of Fenway Park?

It all comes across as tone-deaf. I get MLB wanting this platform to promote their sport, but do it with a team that has some real stars. A team that has a chance to make a run. Not with a team that is selling the Fenway Experience rather than the actual baseball product.

And if you're the Red Sox, read the room. Put the baseball ahead of the marking initiative.

Maybe we’ll actually get owner John Henry in front of a camera talking about his baseball team. That hasn't happened in a few years.

Will I watch it when it finally airs in 2025? Yes.

Does it have a chance to be a disaster? Also, yes.

Bittersweet weekend ahead with a good Super Bowl matchup that will also be our last NFL game for six months. Sad.

Plenty of football ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the 60 Minutes sports betting report…

On Sunday night, 60 Minutes spent a segment of their show talking about sports betting in America. ESPN is doing a segment/report each day Thursday-Sunday on Sportscenter, again on the business of sports betting.

With Americans expected to wager $23 billion on the Super Bowl this weekend - and with the game in Las Vegas - I get the timing.

The 60 Minutes piece is littered with the usual SPORTS BETTING IS EVIL themes we’ve heard so much over the years. The same scare tactics. We see these every few months.

For example, there’s a line in the piece, “Every clinician 60 Minutes has spoken to said they are noticing a rise in young problem gamblers.”

Well seven years ago, sports betting wasn’t legal. No ads were directing you where to go if you felt like you had a problem gambling. The number was guaranteed to rise once sports betting became legal in 2018.

I naturally push back against segments like this because for years we were told by the media how bad betting on sports was. These same folks are/were perfectly fine with fund managers and day traders speculating on the stock market. And “gambling” millions and millions of dollars along the way.

There were two notes from the segment that have stuck with me for a few days.

Fair warning - both are going to make me sound like an overprotective dad talking to his son.

1. The sportsbooks are not your friends. Just know that going in.
   
   Part of the piece spends time showing the viewer all the data the sportsbooks collect on you. What you bet. When you bet. How much you won. How much you lost. The offers they sent you and which ones you responded to. They have all your betting data.
   
   And they use that to send you more offers to get you to bet more. That’s happening. They want your money. In fact, they have teams of people and computers behind the scenes helping them get it.
   
   And to hide that fact, they team up with athletes you like. They send you offers and free bets. They create an entire tab of Super Bowl bets focused on Taylor Swift.
   

   

   Fun!
   
   And betting on sports should be fun. But I’m here as an annoying reminder that behind all the promos and Swiftie tie-ins, the books are trying desperately to get you to hit that deposit button again. And again. And again.
   
   So if you’re playing even semi-seriously, PLEASE make sure you’re shopping for the best number you can. Take advantage of all those promos. Don’t let those free bets expire - and they expire quickly.
   
   And if you do feel like you’re betting too much, or the idea of betting on sports is starting to consume you more than it should, reach out and talk to someone.
   
   There is a 24/7 confidential helpline available at 1-800-662-HELP (4357).

2. Bill Miller is the CEO of the American Gaming Association. He’s an advocate for the sports betting industry and sat down for an interview as part of the segment. He was asked about young men being addicted to sports betting.
   
   “I don't believe that there is an addiction to mobile betting any more than there is an addiction to utilization of your phone for any other reason.”
   
   Full disclosure, I have no clue if Bill Miller is right about this. But I’m crowbarring this quote in here because I can tell you as a father of two, we are BATTLING the screen issue in the Mutnansky Household. We’re talking daily knock-down, drag-out battles with boys aged 8 and 11.
   
   Screen limits. YouTube monitoring. Begging for extra time. Meltdowns. We’re not even at the phone stage yet. I’m talking iPads. These games and videos are so stupid but somehow so addicting to my kids.

   
   Does some silly game called Bed Wars lead the Mutnansky Boys to a life of firing off hundreds of no-chance, 7-leg parlays in 10 years? I have no clue. But it does scare the shit out of me how addicting the screens seem to be.
   
   And it’s my newsletter and I felt like getting that off my chest.
   
   More on the Super Bowl and some betting ideas below.

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On the Patriots offseason to date…

Now in Year 2, MutStack is my main focus these days. I have some cool ideas (hopefully) for 2024.

Outside of that, I am lucky to be a guest on The Kirk Minihane Show every few weeks.

Then every few months, when he’s desperate for a guest, I join Andrew Callahan on his Pats Interference podcast.

I joined Andrew this week to talk about the Patriots’ coaching moves and Super Bowl prop bets.

It has not been a good start to the team’s very important off-season.

After a brutal special teams season, the team hired Jeremy Springer as the new special teams coach. Springer was previously an assistant special teams coach for the Los Angeles Rams.

The Rams were dead last (32 of 32) in DVOA special teams rankings for the 2023 season.

Journeyman NFL coach Alex Van Pelt is the team’s new offensive coordinator. He was the last of 12 candidates to interview for the job after multiple coaches decided they we’re not interested in the opening.

The best thing people have said about Van Pelt is that he’s a great culture guy. And that he’s experienced. Nothing about him being a sharp offensive mind or advanced play-caller.

Ben McAdoo was hired this week to help with the offense. His NFL highlights consist of bad haircuts and being mocked by Pardon My Take (Ben McAdoodoo). He was a disaster in NY. He benched Eli Manning. He’s the guy to help a new quarterback? Really?

Just a very uninspired approach to these coaching hires.

Thursday, after sitting down with Boston media off-the-record for an hour in Las Vegas, Patriots owner Robert Kraft offered a few on-the-record comments.

“I know there’s a perception that we have held back on spending," Kraft said. "Let me just say, for our fans, that’s just not true. Look, we were blessed to have a coach in our system who was a great coach and also understood value. He ran a tight ship."

"They say we've been low spenders in the last 10 years, and that might be true," Kraft said Thursday. "But we had a pretty good record. And we won three Super Bowls. But our coaches have always had the ability to spend at whatever level they wanted. I think Bill was always thinking about the future and really understood value. But we never held back with any of the coaches we’ve had over the last 30 years.

"They’ve been able to get whatever they want. If cash spending became an issue for our family, and we couldn’t do it, then I would sell the team. Winning football games, after my family, is the most important thing in my life. Whatever we can do to help make that happen, we’re going to do."

More of the same from the team’s ownership - it was all Bill’s fault.

ESPN reported over the last 10 years, the Patriots were last in the NFL in actual cash spending. The numbers are right there. It’s hard to believe that ownership was not aware of that.

I’m sick of the Belichick BlameGame. Both directly from the team and in media reports with unnamed sources. The team had every right to move on from Belichick. I applaud them for doing it.

Now stop blaming him for all the shortcomings and focus on trying to rebuild your team.

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On how we’re betting Super Bowl VLIII…

This should be an excellent football game.

I don’t think it’s a great game to bet. At least as far as picking the side goes.

As of Friday morning, the consensus line looks like the 49ers -2 (-105). You can get the Chiefs +2 (-115). The reporting on the betting has been all over the place.

Action Network has the splits as 71% of bets and 76% of the money on KC. But the line has stayed around +2 all week. I’ve gotten unofficial reports of huge bets on both sides.

The idea seems to be the “public” is on the Chiefs. And the “sharps” are on the 49ers. For whatever that’s worth.

These are two very good teams. If you want to hang your hat on betting the best QB on the planet getting points, I get it. If you want to take the best or second-best DVOA team most of the season at almost a Pick’em, I get that too.

I liked the Chiefs last year against the Eagles. If the Chiefs won, Patrick Mahomes was likely to win the MVP. So it was easy to just bet that at +120 as my big bet.

This year? It does not feel as clear-cut. My opinion has not changed much from last week. I think the 49ers ability and intention to run the football against the 27th-ranked DVOA run defense will give them an early lead. That lead will force Mahomes to rely on receivers that are not great (sans Travis Kelce). Ultimately, they’ll have a comeback effort that comes up short.

It says here 26-20, 49ers.

I have a small Chiefs future at 9-1 that I’ll likely hedge out of to make a few bucks.

I have not added much to the prop card this week.

CMC MVP +480
CMC Rush+Rec Yards O125.5
Deebo O15.5 rush yards
Mahomes O25.5 yards rushing
Every Draftkings boosted prop offered this week ($10 max)
Aiyuk MVP 60-1

There will be more. Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan made a good point on the Kelce props - if we get a bunch of crazy, casual money (Swifties) on Kecle overs the next few days and lines go up, the unders might be worth a look.

I will be driving to NH to bet tails for the coin toss since you can’t bet it in Massachusetts. You CAN create the coin-toss bet and send it to your friends on Mad Props. You can create any bet you want there. It’s great. I’ll be creating bets on Sunday.

Most of the mobile sportsbooks in MA are offering a free $5 bet when you log in. And be on the lookout Sunday for books trying to hedge off huge bets by moving their lines. ESPN Bet did that for the Ravens/Texans a few weeks back.

There he is! The expert! Mohegan Sun Sportsbook Manager Brad “Bomber” Bryant.

Bomber has spent his life in casinos, sportsbooks and racetracks. From Las Vegas to New Orleans to Mohegan Sun.

I asked him for his insight into betting this year’s Super Bowl.

“Six weeks ago, this line would have been SF -7 & a total of 50.  I would have opened this line Pk & 50 and let the $ drive it one way or the other.

For me, the 49ers will need to run the ball which I believe they can. San Francisco #3 in rushing yards/game v. Kansas City #18 Rushing Defense

If SF can run the ball, it will keep Mahomes off the field. SF will need to keep Kelce from being wide open.

One of the major reasons KC has looked better is Kelce’s ability to get wide open.”

Bomber’s Plays:

Game Pick: SF -2.5 (-105)

Alternate line SF -6.5 (+200)

Kelce Under Receiving Yards 70.5 (+100)

Kelce Under Receiving Yards 53.5 (+200)

While they're mostly sold out, there are a few seats available for Mohegan Sun’s Super Bowl Party. They’re doing some great giveaways, including a Travis Kelce autographed jersey. Follow this link for details.

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On some Super Bowl Weekend appetizers…

• The first episode of Barstool’s The Unnamed Show with Kirk, Dave, and Whitney was exactly what I hoped it would be - honesty, mudslinging and chaos. All the best qualities of old-school Barstool Radio condensed into an hour.

• This week’s Felger and Mazz live from Las Vegas has been a great example of a radio show creating content on-location when the local team is not in the Super Bowl. They got good stuff from former Patriot and now-Raider Jakobi Meyers. Felger had a classic old-school sports radio shouting match with Friend of Belichick, Mike Lombardi. On Thursday, they had Mad Dog and Stephen A. Smith on together for a full segment. Some shows go to the Super Bowl and mail it in. I did not get that vibe from Felger and Mazz.

• We’ll soon be down to six mobile sports betting options in Massachusetts. Both Betr and WynnBet will leave the state in the next few weeks. Encore Boston Harbor, which was tied to WynnBet, will just rebrand their on-site sportsbook as Encore Sportsbook, for now. “Right now the plan for Encore Boston Harbor is to maybe change the name, or maybe not change the name," MGC Chair Cathy Stein said. 

• Have not spent much time on the Celtics in this space because it’s pretty simple - NBA Finals or bust. Deadline moves should help, but any season that ends before the Finals will be a massive disappointment. You don’t get the rookie coach excuse this season.

• Spoke to an industry source who expects Will Flemming to be back in the Red Sox radio booth this season, but expressed some bewilderment that WEEI had not officially announced his return yet. First spring training game on the radio is two weeks from Saturday.

We said it all.

I’ll update this post on Sunday with any additional bets or ideas. And we’ll preview this weekend’s Derby Prep, the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa, over at StackCapping tomorrow.

Good luck with the Super Bowl bets. Thanks for reading.

Good weekend.