Friday Four-Pack 3.1.24

The Belichick Patriots are dead. Wild Pats doc episode. Carrabis leaves DraftKings. Mutahan.

The Bill Belichick Patriots are officially dead.

Maybe we’ll see some of that old Belichick trademark toughness on the field, as former captain Jerod Mayo takes over as head coach.

But off the field? In the front office? With the media?

Dead. And. Buried.

First, you had Elliot Wolf at the NFL Combine Tuesday announcing the team will have a new system for grading potential draft picks, similar to the system his dad Ron Wolf had with the Green Bay Packers.

You had Wolf telling the media the team needed to “weaponize the offense.”

He said the ‘new program and the new direction of the team’ would be a big part of the recruiting pitch to free agents.

Scouts will have a say in the process, which reportedly was not the case under Belichick. And on and on and on.

You might as well have hung a WE’RE DOING THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT BILL DID HERE THANKS FOR ASKING GUYS!!! banner at the table. That’s been the whole theme of the offseason, including the new coach saying he wants to have an open dialogue with the media.

Then on Thursday, MassLive.com blasted out the following headline.

The story added the context.

According to multiple sources, the Patriots are planning to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. One NFL executive, outside of New England, relayed that it’s widely expected in league circles that quarterbacks will be selected with the first three picks in April.

Drafting a signal caller is only one step in this process. According to a source, the Patriots plan on signing a veteran free agent quarterback, too. The team is in no rush to start a rookie immediately and could play that veteran if they think it would benefit the younger quarterback to sit for a season.

And you can “No duh, of course they’re taking a QB” this thing all you want, but this is a wild story to read if you have been following the team for the last 20 years.

This is new. This is people in the organization talking to the media. Or other football people. No more state secrets. It’s all on the table.

I get it, the Brady/Belichick stuff has some of this. But that was G.O.A.T QB v. Modern Day Lombardi. Soap opera. This is a football issue. Not only are they going to draft a QB, but they’re signing one too.

Again, not groundbreaking. But a new chapter when it comes to news and the Patriots.

Later Thursday, the Herald came back with their own story.

According to sources, such a decision has not been communicated throughout the Patriots’ front office. Director of scouting Eliot Wolf recently led pre-combine meetings where scouts deliberated drafting a quarterback at No. 3, sources said. One front-office source views all three of the top quarterbacks in this year’s class, including projected No. 1 pick Caleb Williams, as worthy of the third pick.

It wasn’t us! Someone else leaked it! Kinda hilarious.

Another shift in the coverage - two local outlets getting the story then rebuttal. The national media has had the inside scoop on the team for much of the last two decades.

The Patriots have made it very clear they are turning the page on Belichick. Almost too loudly. Between the above, the Apple TV docuseries, Seth Wickersham’s reporting last month….we get it, it ended badly. You didn’t like him very much.

It has not been a great look for ownership. It’s their team, but the piling on has become extreme.

The players voiced their own opinions in the NFLPA’s annual player team report card.

Treatment of Families: F- (30th)
Food/Cafeteria: B- (15th)
Nutritionist/Dietician: B- (20th)
Locker Room: C- (20th)
Training Room: C (22nd)
Training Staff: B- (25th)
Weight Room: F (32nd)
Strength Coaches: C- (31st)
Team Travel: D (24th)
Head Coach: B- (27th)
Ownership: D+ (27th)

None of this stuff is going to matter if they win. But they have to win.

The quarterback’s unceremonious exit combined with the lackluster play of the Post-Brady Patriots eroded a big chunk of any goodwill the Krafts had with the fanbase. You’re seeing it now in the response to the docuseries (more on that below).

We get it. Bill’s gone. Move on.

More Bill to talk about when it comes to the Pats doc. And sports betting news.

All in today’s Four-Pack.

---

---

On Episodes 5 + 6 of Apple TV’s The Dynasty: New England Patriots

Any residue of euphoria left lingering for Patriots fans after watching Episode 3 will be long gone after Episodes 5 + 6.

And another tough week for Bill Belichick.

Those were two of my major takeaways after watching the latest installments of The Dynasty: New England Patriots.

Episode 6, “At All Costs,” is focused on the rise and fall of Aaron Hernandez. There are some good filmmaking moments here, in particular Deion Branch, Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker all on-camera talking about their experiences with Hernandez and the Patriots.

The opening, with Hernandez being asked to pose for team publicity photos, is chilling given how we now know how his story will evolve. And you have Hernandez on video asking Cris Carter a question about “changing your ways” at the 2010 NFL rookie symposium. Wild. And well done.

But much like earlier portions of the series that take aim at the former coach, there is an accusatory tone toward Belichick for the way he handed Hernandez during this time in New England. From the episode -

• He laughs off his crazy antics on the field and in the locker room, to the surprise for Welker.

• Branch is the team’s go-between when it comes to checking in on Hernandez off the field

• Belichick reportedly denied Hernandez’s request to be traded in 2013, in part because he feared for his family’s safety. The Boston Globe was the first to report this in their Spotlight series on the subject. Herdandez’s agent relayed the details of the trade request in grand jury testimony in 2014. There are conflicting reports on the trade request and conversation.

• Jonathan Kraft saying that he and Robert wanted to cut Hernandez right away after he was arrested for the death of Odin Lloyd, whereas Bill was looking to take a more measured approach to see how it would play out. The Krafts (Jonathan) were 100% correct in that call, but the way it gets set up in the documentary is not all that kind to Belichick.

• Some still shots of Belichick that make him look like the bad guy.

As a viewer, the whole thing was like “Hey, as a team we effed up with Hernandez…but it was mostly Bill’s fault.”

Disagree once you watch it? Let me know in the comments below.

Bill himself would not comment on the situation on camera when asked.

It’s a pretty dark episode with a few laughs mixed in - like the team (Belichick?) telling Rob Gronkowski to stop celebrating so much on stage after the team drafted him.

Episode 5, “Torn,” is the biggest example of the series lacking thanks to Belichick’s unwillingness to go in-depth on camera.

You’re dealing with Brady’s injury, the 11-5 season under Matt Cassel and eventually Brady’s return the following year. The episode deals with Bill’s coaching style and gives him credit for the team’s success with Cassel at the helm.

But there is no depth. This is where Bill Belichick being engaged would have helped. Explain how the offense changed with Cassel replacing the greatest quarterback of all time. Like, besides Cassel being more mobile, how did that happen? Instead, Cassel himself is left to talk about his mobility.

Or how about Bill on his own coaching style? Get him to react to what Tedy Brushci and others have to say. We never get that and it hurts the episode, which has been the least compelling of the first six available to the public

Knowing how poorly their relationship ended, it was jarring to see that famous clip of Belichick confiding in Brady in the Saints game in 2009, “I just can’t get these guys to play the way I want them to play.”

Boring and then wild. My two grades for this week’s episodes.

On Jared Carrabis leaving Draftkings…

I don’t know if he’s the face of Major League Baseball on social media and among non-elderly baseball fans. But he’s one of a handful.

Former Red Sox Review with Mike Mutnansky intern Jared Carrabis announced this week he is leaving DraftKings after a two-year run. He made the leap to DraftKings from Barstool Sports.

His Red Sox podcast (Name Redacted) and MLB podcast (Baseball is Dead) are consistently at the top of the baseball podcast charts, for whatever those things are worth. He has a big following there and on social media, in addition to segments on MLB Network.

So where is he headed?

Carrabis said in his goodbye video that his next move was about the fans.

“It just came down to, what was best for the fans. And I think the fans will be very happy with the next chapter.”

When he said that I assumed, like many other people, he was going home to Barstool Sports. Create a Boston office with Kirk Minihane. Or do what the Jomboy Media guys have done - go create your own baseball media world.

But on Thursday’s The Unnamed Show, Dave Portnoy didn’t sound like a Barstool reunion was in the cards.

“I heard he has a competitive offer. Which is why he’s not going back to DK. So no, I don’t think he’s coming here…From what I gather he’s not going to end up here because he still wants what I would say was too much money for us.”

Weird spot because Dave probably knows what DK was offering thanks to the new Barstool/DK partnership. Never say never, but going back to Barstool seems unlikely.

Dave went on to speculate that Carrabis is headed to Underdog Fantasy.

It makes sense for Underdog. They signed Steve Smith Sr. and Gilbert Arenas to do podcasts. They have a big football presence. But nothing on the baseball side. And they offer a lot of baseball DFS contests. Big hole to fill.

Carrabis (and Dallas Braden?) bring them an immediate baseball brand. And a big podcast/social footprint.

What I don't get is how the move to Underdog “is the best thing for the fans.” As a consumer of all this stuff, Barstool seems much more fan-friendly. Were there things DraftKings was doing that were not good for the fans?

Admittedly, I’m Team Carrabis. I’m guessing we’ll get the answer early next week.

Speaking of Underdog -

On a big change for Underdog Fantasy in Massachusetts…

It was only a matter of time.

Those of us who play the “Pick’ em” style of games on Underdog Fantasy woke up to find the format gone from the app on Wednesday morning.

Like many other states, Massachusetts is cracking down on these games because they mimic sportsbook-style, player-prop parlays. Except in this case, the companies (including Underdog) running them don’t have approved sportsbook licenses.

The sportsbooks who paid a lot of money for their licenses have lobbied for these games to go away and it finally happened in Massachusetts this week.

“In consultation with the Massachusetts Attorney General’s office, we’ve moved to our peer-to-peer pick’em product in Massachusetts,” Underdog Fantasy vice president of government affairs and partnerships Stacie Stern said in a statement.

And if you play these games, you should know the new product being offered is much different than the one we were previously playing.

And you need to know the difference before playing.

Formerly called Underdog Pick’ em, you’re now playing Underdog Pick’ em Champions.

Previously, you were playing against the house, in this case Underdog. You made your picks and it told you what it would pay if you won. You against them. Like a sportsbook. Pretty straightforward.

Not so much anymore.

While you can still make Pick’ Em slips, it is now a peer-to-peer game. Your slip gets placed with up to 50,000 other slips. Underdog says it’s a random selection of what group you get put in, depending on how many picks you make, how risky they are, etc. The size of the pool you're in also changes based on those same factors.

Then you’re competing against all those other players in your pool. All of the winners will then split the winnings from the pool

After your pick, you get a message like this on the app.

Before, you would see a projected payout. Now, you see what the “average” payout would be. Your expected payout could be lower if many people in your pool hit their picks. Fewer people hit? It could pay more than expected. Depends on what your peers do. Their wins and losses will in a way determine your payout.

Simply put - Pick’ em Champions is a much different game.

There are multiple Reddit threads about the new game plays RE: payouts. I played one slip in the PGA Thursday and lost (never doubt Billy Horschel in Florida) so I can’t talk about how my potential winnings would have been affected.

And honestly, I don't know the correct way to play these games now that it’s peer-to-peer. Until I can research it more, I’ll be playing less.

As a user in Massachusetts, I kept waiting for an email from Underdog on how the game had changed. Even emailed them. Did not get a response. And as an active user on the platform, I’d want to know I’m now playing a different game. That’s why I’m writing about this. So you’ll know.

And from the numbers, a lot of you are playing. Both Underdog and Prize Picks had a larger Daily Fantasy handle in Massachusetts than FanDuel in January.

If you’re playing on Prize Picks, sounds like they will make the same type of change on their platform in March. Again, it will be a different game.

As for BoomFantasy , OwnersBox , Parlay Play, RealTime Fantasy Sports , Sleeper , Splash Sports , Talid Sports, d/b/a Chalkboard Fantasy Sports , Two Nine Sports, d/b/a StatHero , Vivid Picks  and Yahoo! Daily Fantasy Sports - they were all sent cease and desist letters from the Massachusetts AG.

Underdog has some great products and a strong platform. My guess is at some point, they’ll be a major player in the sportsbook space. Especially of they’re investing big money in podcasts and social. They’ll be live in Ohio and North Carolina this year - and hopefully soon in Massachusetts.

Until then, the Pick’ em game they offer here in The Bay State is no longer you against them, it’s you against everyone else.

On two MutStack notes…

• No disrespect to the Celtics, but the Pats offseason is the biggest story in Boston sports.

  
  So full credit to 95.8 The Sports Hub’s Zolak and Bertrand for going live to the aforementioned Elliot Wolf press conference on Tuesday morning.

  It ended up being the biggest story of the day and week with the most important sound, and they had it live and continued to react to it.
  
  Meanwhile, over on WEEI, Gresh and Fauria opened their show with some sort of talk about their producer on Only Fans. Then right into a recap of a Bruins game played late-night on the West Coast. The Wolf/Patriots stuff was briefly touched on, but no sound the entire first hour. The end of the hour was a segment on UMass going to the MAC. Tough scene.

• This was great.

Mutahan.

This is from the end of Thursday’s Unnamed Show. Kirk tries to crowbar in a job opportunity for me and with Dave. Dave combines my name with, I think, our former WEEI co-host Gerry Callahan.

Mutahan. Do I have to change my name now?

Meanwhile, Whitney says nothing, even though I DM’d him a nice winner when we were both up at Saratoga a few years ago.

Huge fan of Elio. Huge fan of DK Horse and the cash-back bonuses.

But forgetting for a second Dave obviously has me in mind for some racing content, this was/is a no-brainer. I wrote this in January.

Beyond the obvious, I think one of the big benefits for DraftKings in this deal is the potential for their horse racing product launched last year, DK HORSE.

On big days in racing - like this weekend’s Pegasus Stakes at Gulfstream - some of if not the most consumed racing content on social media comes from Barstool. Portnoy and Elio get thousands and thousands of views on their videos before, during and after live races.

If you’re DK HORSE and you’re trying to get your relatively new product in front of potential customers - many of whom already bet sports with you - there is a major benefit to having Barstool personalities using and promoting your product.

It would be a major miss if a strong DK HORSE promotion was not part of this deal.

It makes too much sense. And will be good content for racing fans.

As for racing this weekend, four very important Derby Prep races. Monster day. And Nysos runs Sunday. Full coverage here tomorrow in the StackCapping tab at MutStack.com or in your inbox. And on X.com

Thanks to David in Maryland for the video clip. And TJ Hubbard for the frightening Mutahan photo.

Thanks for reading. Good luck with all your bets.

Good weekend.