Friday Four-Pack 3.13.26
I busted out in Vegas. Pats Free Agency is missing a big piece. Tony Mazz had an interesting on-air comment. MutMail, Notes and more.
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
Our first live-to-video MutStack.com owners’ note. Fair response to my request, but I had to ask. I have a job.
Very, very frustrating Thursday in Las Vegas.
In talking to Frank Scatoni last week, he warned that you could end up in a situation where you look back and realize you had a chance to qualify, but your winners were split between two entries. “You don’t want to let them happen.”
And in the end, that’s what happened.
Thanks to Dave, I had three entries. One entry finished with $35.80. Another with $33.10. You needed $65.40 for a seat. I ended up hitting a nice play at Parx on a ‘bad’ entry, and started moving picks around.
And if I had had the balls to play the Parx horse on an entry that started well, I’d be prepping for the NHC races tomorrow.
But just too conservative early. Too rushed and scrambling late. I had it in my mind to have some bullets in the last few races of the contest, but by then, I had passed on too many low to mid-priced winners and had to chase.
I probably focused too much on longer prices in a contest that ended up being very low-scoring. I hit my first play of the tournament, it paid $11.90, and that should have been a sign to bet those types of horses. But once I missed a few, I started reaching.
Bad luck? Sure. Go watch Sidearm’s trip in the 10th at Gulfstream. Or A Moment A Love in Race 5. Or this insane wide trip from Lotsa Trouble in the 7th in NY, where the comment line says “fanned nine wide into upper stretch.” Felt like 99. But I had my chances.
Even the last race of the contest, like, I wrote down to bet the 4 if I needed a price play. This was days ago. Thursday? I ended up missing it because I had not realized that he had drifted up in price. He opened 5-1, and I said, “Well, can’t bet him.” Turns out if I had, I’d have had $61.44 on my best entry. Still a few bucks shy, but I can’t make that mistake.
I’m going to do a full review for the Barstool Blog next week, but it is an awesome event. I can see why people chase seats all year. I’d do much better qualifying when Saratoga is running, that’s for sure.
Being around other racing lunatics is awesome. I got some very nice comments from people about the racing coverage here and on the Barstool Blog. That was nice. Not getting a seat was not. I spent three weeks obsessing over and prepping for this, and falling short sucks.
I’m writing this Thursday night in a mostly empty Horseshoe Events Center. I’ll be back here tomorrow, doing whatever Dave, Elio, and the crew need me to do to help them out. My 284th place out of 1037 wasn't good enough to play tomorrow, and it doesn’t mean shit. Other than that, I can’t wait to start qualifying for 2027.
Meanwhile, interesting first week of Pats Free Agency. We’ve got some #MutMail questions to answer. How about those comments from Tony Mazz on 98.5 The Sports Hub this week??? And your weekly MutStack notes.
And it’s all ahead in Friday Four-Pack #163
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On the Patriots’ week in free agency…
IN: WR Romeo Doubs, G Alijah Vera-Tucker, Edge Dre’Mont Jones, S Kevin Byard. Others: S Mike Brown, FB Reggie Gilliam, TE Julian Hill, and LB K.J. Britt (for depth and special teams)
OUT: WR Stefon Diggs, LBs Anfernee Jennings and Jahlani Tavai, C Garrett Bradbury, Jaylinn Hawkins, Austin Hooper.
Lacking the #1 receiving threat. That’s a big hole. I guess they’ll wait out the Eagles on A.J. Brown? That has to be the play, right? Jauan Jennings is still out there, but will they pay him? He’s probably another #2 receiver.
They can’t think Doubs plus Boutte plus Douglas plus Hollins plusWilliams is enough, right? RIGHT? They have to know that’s not enough for Drake Maye. Diggs helped unlock Maye’s MVP season.
I like Doubs, but he’s not a #1. He’s never had a #1 season in Green Bay. Diggs was a #1. Brown is a #1. I just can’t believe they might not realize this.
Again, the Eagles save money if they trade him later, I get it. But this is a pretty big gamble by the Patriots.
About money. The team has money to still add a receiver. If they end up kicking the can down the road on spending, it will be a bad look. You have to sign Gonzalez, and you’re about to spend real money on Maye. Now is the time to commit.
I like the other moves. Byard is a terrific playmaker. When Vera-Tucker is healthy, he’s Pro Bowl caliber. But the lack of a No. 1 receiver looms over all of this. As does, to a much lesser extent, the long-term replacement for Hunter Henry. Hopefully, they address that in the draft.
I’d grade this first week as incomplete because the hole at WR is just too big to ignore. If they don’t end up with one, it will be a massive fail.
On this comment about Beasley management from Mazz…
“One station loses, the other one’s got to make enough for all of them.”
That was not some throwaway line from Tony Mazz this week.
From Radio Ink last month:
Beasley Media Group has elected to use a 30-day grace period for interest payments totaling approximately $10.2 million that were due February 1, marking the latest development in the company’s ongoing efforts to manage debt after its 2024 refinancing.
Their stock has been trading under $4, down about 25% over the last six months. Like many traditional radio companies, Beasley is struggling financially.
I think it’s very fair to say that Mazz said something out loud that many 98.5 The Sports Hub employees believe - that their great success is having to carry many other stations, not just in the Boston cluster, but across the country.
How is that showing itself now? Well, I know in the last year, Sports Hub hosts waited months for their bonus checks for their #1 ratings. I heard the same about commission checks for their salespeople. That has to suck when you know your station is getting the job done and that, as hosts and salespeople, you did your job. Yet, you’re begging to get paid out. It’s a moral killer.
And I’ve heard recently through the grapevine that some of their on-air contributors, some of whom have been waiting months to get paid by Beasley, are still waiting. That is brutal. Not just for them, but as a full-time host, it makes you feel like an asshole that these people are coming in to work for free. Bad vibes all around
Bigger picture? Maybe it means Beasley can’t retain its talent. Eventually, there will be contracts that come up. Are you really going to ask No. 1 hosts to take a pay cut??? How will that play out? This is in play for a company with financial struggles.
Now, could WEEI take advantage? I don’t know if they have the money to jump in, either.
Felger’s response, “Mazz, why do we have to go there?” was hilarious. It also tells me it was a real comment on something these guys have bitched about off-air. Felger seems to hate that stuff - he wants the radio to succeed.
But it’s hard to have much faith in that if even a company with a sports-radio powerhouse like The Sports Hub is facing financial struggles.
On your MutMail Questions…
For just the second time in over three years of this newsletter, I put out the request for some #MutMail questions. And you guys delivered. There were a lot.
Germ asked in the comments last week,
Which former co-worker do you dislike more? Mikey Adams or Chris Curtis?
I heard that the caller to Kirk’s show last week said that I should respond to Curtis going at me on The Greg Hill Show. I would, but I have not heard any direct shots. I’m sure there have been. Someone sent me a clip of Greg mockingly saying “Substacks” or something. Curtis and I were friends; he stayed on the morning show with Greg, and I went back to nights, and that was sort of it. I’ve written about his on-air mishaps and WEEI’s ratings, so he’s probably not a fan. Mikey, just, yeah, no thanks. I dislike him more, by a wide margin.
HotTakes69
how do the red sox owners answer the simple question - why have you gone from a top 2-3 payroll team to 14th, simple question
They’ve said they spend more on other things, like research and tech. But it’s a bullshit answer. You know that. There’s no excuse.
tommy massis
Did you collect any of the trading cards they hand out on the strip
I did - I need to add to the collection from the last time I was here in 2020. Also, Las Vegas remains stupid expensive.
Jack
How excited were you when Dave Andrews knew you as the Mut stack guy before the dozen March
There are lots of MutStack guys and gals out there that lurk in the shadows. Andrews does a good job with the 98.5 guys, but I was happy to thrash him in trivia
A_48321
Rank the top movies to fall asleep to
This list changes. Right now it’s “The Sting” with Robert Redford and Paul Newman. Something about the music and the pacing of it. Usually, asleep before Redford’s character goes to Chicago.
Overall? Moneyball, Darkest Hour, and Seinfeld are all in the rotation. Spotlight is another. Dark subject matter, but the dialogue does it for me.
Nipplez (Gear Head Mike)
With Laconia tickets going on sale in less than a week, will you be at both nights or just Saturday? And will there be a Belmont Stakes event somewhere?
I don’t know, Nipplez. There is a small casino near Laconia that might work. Thankfully, with DK Horse, we can watch and wager anywhere. But whatever Kirk needs me to do. Sounds like Marty Mush is in, too? He keeps saying that, at least.
Worse situation? Kirk having Klemmer or New England giving Romeo Doubs WR1 money while being at best a WR2?
Close, but Doubs. The Pats don’t have a #1 receiver. Team Minihane has a No. 1 player in Kirk when he comes back. Just need Klemmer to be the #2 and get those geography questions.
David In Maryland
Why did the Mutstack Vlogs end? They were my Moneyball for helping me get some shut-eye
Not officially ended, they’ll appear again, I’m sure. But it’s been a while, that’s fair.
Appreciate the questions, especially from the Minifans. Three years between mailbags seems too long, so I’ll try to make this quarterly.
On your weekly MutStack notes…
⚾ This week’s Dirty Water was dominated by WBC, Mark DeRosa, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer talk. Big spot for Team USA Friday Night. Watch and listen on YouTube, then subscribe to the podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts.
🏇🏻 Maach
Would you bet the new octofecta bet at Turfway even if it was with Portnoy's money?
So I saved this question for here because, holy shit, what is Turfway doing?
“TwinSpires is excited to promote an exciting new wager type available at Kentucky Thoroughbred tracks,” TwinSpires vice president of marketing Evan Morris said. “The Jackpot 8 is a high-upside bet designed for everyone-no deep racing knowledge required. With an easy entry point and large jackpot on the line, we see this as a genuine opportunity to attract new fans to the sport.”
The wager has a $1 minimum with a 22 percent takeout. Of the pool remaining after takeout, 75 percent goes to the jackpot and 25 percent to multiple winners, which is emphasized here because there are no consolation payoffs. Multiple winners are playing for 19.5% of the total pool. Anything less than correctly tabbing all eight finish positions is a losing ticket except in the case of a mandatory payout.
That's right - you have to pick the first EIGHT finishers in a race. In the correct order. It’s a horse racing lottery ticket. It’s not for real players - it’s for people who are at the race track with real players who just want some action. I’ve been with friends at the track who will go to the guy who scratches tickets from the machines in New York…WHILE THEY’RE AT THE TRACK. This is that, but with horses. And just wait until one of the stars of Horse Racing Twitter misses this bet because some jockey didn’t fight for 6th place. Jackpot bets are bad enough without being this gimmicky. I hate this.
⁉️ Yeah, not a great interaction. In my mind, it was like 10-15 seconds total, but clearly I lingered. If you’ve ever had a bad day betting on horses or sports, that ‘fatigue of losing’ at the end of the day. Yeah, that was me. Gotta be better. Today is a new day.
🏀 This came up on Picks Central this week, but I still believe UConn is one of the four or five teams that can win the NCAA Championship. At their best, they can play with anyone. That said, I’d like to see them win this Big East Tournament in NY. Some momentum and confidence heading into next week would be HUGE for this team. Excited to see Tourney Braylon Mullins.
🏇🏻 One thing that’s apparent to me in just a day and a half around other horseplayers here in Vegas - my way of handicapping feels archaic. I read the form, watch replays, take notes, and look for track bias. There is so much software out there that people are putting to good use, including AI, that seems much more advanced. I might have to take a break after the Triple Crown season to reassess my approach. If you’re using any of this stuff, let me know.
🙄 I see the Bettor Health Act has some buzz in Massachusetts again. This is a legislative bill that “aims to address harms that can come with wagering.” It also bans sports betting ads during televised sporting events, as well as in-play and proposition bets. Oh, and massively raises the tax rate for sports betting operators. People much smarter than me say it would destroy MA Sports betting. To me, it’s a silly publicity stunt that would be bad for sports bettors, and I can’t believe it’s coming up again
That feels like enough Stack for today. Back on the Barstool Blog to recap Day 1 of the NHC and talk Derby Preps in the regular Kentucky Derby Prepping with Mut.
Now back to helping the boys win this thing. Winner gets $825k.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Thanks for reading. And watching.
Mutstack unofficial editor here, I think you meant to use the word “morale” but you printed, “It’s a moral killer.” I’m pretty sure they aren’t killing morals over at 98.5, leave that to Curtis over at EEI.
Great ‘stack today Mutman
This year was a learning experience at the NHC. As the Mutstack Trust Tree has always said, "Go with your gut. Or in this case Mut."