Friday Four-Pack 3.14.25

Pats spend big in Free Agency but questions remain. Media members get pouty over Aaron Rodgers. Barstool starpower in Vegas for the NHC. Team Belichick in the news...again.

I know, I know…I can’t quit these two. But in my defense, this is newsworthy for a few reasons.

1. Is this the first big sports story ever broken over on BlueSky, the supposed super happy and friendly social media site? I think it is?

2. So, not only is 24-year-old Jordon Hudson the love interest of 72-year-old Bill Belichick, but she’s also his ‘de-facto agent’ in addition to being his Social Media Manager. Busy schedule.

3. Belichick ends his emails with ‘BB.’ I end my emails with ‘MM.’ Power moves only, folks.

Some people took this email to mean that Belichick requests that every email sent to him at UNC be CC’d to Jordon. I’m hopeful he’s just talking about social media-related emails, and the above does seem to read that way.

Then there was this, from the Sports Gossip Show Podcast, on the real reason that UNC and HBO could not get a deal done to put the Tarheels on an offseason version of Hard Knocks—

“Remember how we said last week we were pretty sure the reason UNC Hard Knocks was not happening was because the ‘creative control issues’ were actually code for ‘Jordon Hudson wanted to be more involved in some capacity? I heard from a source, very trusted, that that is the truth.”

Either way, Lady Belichick is clearly at the commands of the Belichick Empire. Runs the social media. Finds her way into a Dunkin’ Donuts commercial. To reference an old Seinfeld episode, she appears to have hand in the relationship.

When the Patriots signed Tim Tebow, one of the most talked about football players on the planet at the time, Belichick famously made one request of the lefty quarterback - “Don’t be a distraction.” Maybe it’s just an offseason thing, but doesn’t this feel like a potential distraction?

If UNC starts 3-1, this will likely pass. But a slow start…players speaking out…, and Belichick’s social media posting wonky stuff…oh yeah, this will be a story.

All of this remains bizarre. And it would have been a bigger story if it had played out on the NFL landscape rather than beautiful Chapel Hill, NC. It’s worth considering if it’s one of the reasons Belichick ended up back in college and not the NFL.

And for the record, let there be no doubt - my wife does not run my social media. All of those terrible posts on X.com and infrequent content updates on IG - yep, that’s all me.

Meanwhile, the Patriots make a big splash in free agency…BUT. We have an update to my wildly popular CCL Metric. And a Barstool Sports personality has a chance to take down one of the biggest horse racing handicapping tournaments in the world.

All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the week of free agency for Mike Vrabel’s Patriots…

It was a good few days for the Patriots, BUT…well hold on, let’s start with the good.

Jerod Mayo got himself in trouble a year ago when he was quoted as saying the Patriots were “ready to burn some cash" in free agency. The team ended up spending money to resign their own players, and it was one of the multiple times Mayo had to walk back from something he had said to the media.

Fast-forward exactly one off-season, and the team indeed spent that money. By paying top dollar for prized free agent DT Milton Williams, giving big bucks to CB Carlton Davis, and adding linebackers Robert Spillane and Harold Landry, the team immediately added four defensive starters. Each player represents an upgrade for the team at their respective positions. Nice.

On the offensive side of the football, OT Morgan Moses allows Mike Onwenu to kick inside to guard, after looking so overmatched at tackle. Mack Hollins became a favorite target of Josh Allen and had success with Josh McDaniels in Vegas - he can help. Josh Dobbs can backup Drake Maye and also frees up the team to trade Joe Milton if some team wants to over-pay in draft pick compensation.

Money indeed spent - hopefully we’ll look back and say it was well-spent. And the reality has been over the last 10 years, spending big money in the offseason leads to an immediate win increase for your team the following season.

Fox Sports did an excellent analysis of this. It shows that of the 10 teams that spent the most money in free agency over the last 10 years, only the 2016 Jaguars did not increase their win total by at least three games. $$$ = Wins… at least for a season.

The 2021 Patriots made this list, winning three more games after leading the NFL in offseason spending (the Matthew Judon, Hunter Henry offseason).

Only four of those teams went on to make the playoffs in that season, so don’t expect that. But three, five, maybe even seven more wins for the Patriots? Possible, especially when you look at the last 10 seasons. They had the money to spend in order to improve the football team, and it looks like they did just that.

BUT #1…boy did they miss in the WR trade market. Deebo Samuel for a 5th, Christian Kirk for a 7th, DK Metcalf for a 2nd…all trades the team could have made and still been in a good position for the draft. But now you’re left hoping that Tee Higgins forces a deal from the Bengals. Or that A.J. Brown becomes available, which seems unlikely, doesn’t it? Cooper Kupp is a free agent, and Andrew Callahan of the Boston Herald reported that Kupp was “curious” about the Patriots. Obviously, he’d make Maye and the New England offense better.

Adam Schefter said on his podcast Thursday that the Patriots were willing to pay “28, 29, 30 million per year for Chris Godwin.” That’s WAY above the $22 million he ended up getting to stay in Tampa, so I wonder if the team put all their eggs in that basket and figured at those numbers, he’d have to take their deal.

BUT #2…and this is a bigger picture thing, I get it—but do Vrabel, Ryan Cowden, Eliot Wolf…are these guys actually willing to value offense? Like high-end, elite, offensive talent? Or do they think you can win with defense and a running game? Because if that’s the case…woof. There’ll be some games along the way, especially when you face the Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, Lions, etc., you’ll have to score 30 points to win. Eight teams (25% of the league) averaged over 27 PPG last season. All eight of those teams made the playoffs and four of them made the NFL’s ‘Final Four.’

The Eagles had a great defense and an elite offense—we’re not talking about the 2000 Ravens, who won with a legendary defense and journeyman Trent Dilfer at quarterback. There’s a ceiling to these ‘defense first’ teams in 2025, and I really thought Vrabel learned that in Tennessee and then last year with the Browns. 

Sure, they offered big money to Godwin, but not enough to seal the deal.

The first 96 hours of free agency were good for the Patriots. But if the goal was to make life easier for their best player/quarterback, sorry, they’ve so far come up short. There’s still time to get it right on the offensive side of the football, but it’s going to have to come through trades and the NFL draft.

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On media guys whining about Aaron Rodgers…

To quote the great Artie Lange, “WAHHHHHHHH.”

First it was Adam Schefter, one of the most influential voices in the NFL, complaining about the Aaron Rodgers waiting game on the Jen, Gabe and Chewy Show out of Wisconsin.

Not to be outdone, NFL reporter Albert Breer opened his Thursday appearance on 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Zolak and Bertrand complaining about Rodgers - and the inconveniences of having to actually do his job.

“For the second time on three offseasons I’m being held hostage, so that’s awesome,” Breer said to open the show.

Now, at that point, co-host Scott Zolak randomly yelled “What a dick! What a dick!” - and I thought for a second maybe both he and Breer were actually mocking Schefter, as the clip above with the NFL Insider ripping Rodgers went sort of viral.

But no, Zolak was apparently talking about the former Packers and Jets QB and how he’s still not sure where he wants to play next season. And Breer, who doesn’t seem to have much of a sense of humor, was not being sarcastic.

“I remember when it happened two years ago,” Breer continued. “We’d been waiting…if you guys remember it happened the week of the draft…when the Packers finally traded him. They were doing that dance for like six weeks…and yeah, I was at my kid’s lacrosse practice. Like, in these situations, I’ll carry my laptop around with me so I had it in the car and I had to go do all of it…”

WAHHHHHHH

How many parents miss their kids' games and practices because they’re required to actually be at work? Or how many do the same thing as Breer - have to take a work call or write a proposal for a client in the parking lot of a field or gymnasium? This is common practice for any working parent with kids who play sports—it’s called the real world.

Breer and Schefter signed up for this work and are paid handsomely for it. If you don’t like it, start a newsletter and make your own hours.

These guys are so used to having stories handed to them on a silver platter by NFL sources that when one guy takes his time and they know that player is not going to leak it to them first, they get pouty.

Oh, the burden of waiting for another adult to decide where they want to work for the next few years. Talk about spoiled. Soundbites like this are why sports media members can be so mockable. In this case it’s well-deserved.

I hope Rodgers drags this out for another month. At least wait for lacrosse season here in New England, Aaron.

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On your monthly update on my Celtics Concern Level…

January MutStack CCL (Celtics Concern Level) = 0.0%
February MutStack CCL = 0.0%
March MutStack CCL = 15%

Yeah, that loss to Oklahoma City was an eye-opener.

There is no sense in waiting until the end of the month for a March CCL update. Boston’s next seven opponents are a combined 89 games under .500. If they don’t blow through these next eight games at 6-2 or 7-1, before they face the 42-24 Grizzlies at the end of the month, then they have some real issues to discuss. And we will.

But Wednesday, yeah, that was something. Thunder coach Mark Daigneault is a very good coach, which is no surprise given his background. He’s a Leominster, MA native (shoutout Blue Devils, shoutout Mid Wach conference and RIP Monty’s Garden Restaurant), who was a four-year team manager for the UConn Huskies under Hall of Famer Jim Calhoun.

Very sharp guy, as all UConn grads from Massachusetts are.

So he opens the game Wednesday in zone and dares the Celtics to shoot a record number of threes in the first half - and they do.

With the game tied heading into the fourth quarter, the Thunder had established themselves as the much more physical team over the first 36 minutes. Jayson Tatum struggled late, Jaylen Brown struggled much of the game, and SGA played at an MVP level. It was all too much for the Celtics to overcome.

And sure, no Porziņģis, but I’m not sure that would have mattered in the end.

The CCL jumping up to 15% has nothing to do with the Eastern Conference. The Celtics are still better than the Cavs and Co., and I’d be confident in them in any series, assuming full health. But I had pegged the Thunder as a very good but not great team that was still a ‘trade for one more star’ away from being a true title contender. Wednesday’s effort—and Jaylen Brown's inability to do anything significant on the offensive end—changed my outlook.

Joe Mazzulla is a good coach…but wouldn’t the Thunder have the edge there in a potential Finals showdown?

The Thunder could absolutely beat the Celtics in a best-of-seven series. And yeah, if we’re being honest, the Lakers' surge here with Luka is part of that 10%, even with LeBron headed back to LA. I just assume he’ll rest to be as healthy as possible for the playoffs. And with C’s/Lakers registering as the most watched regular season NBA game in seven years, yeah, I could see LA getting plenty of good whistles in the playoffs.

RE: betting. I should tell you the Celtics have floated up to +120 to win the Eastern Conference over on DraftKings. As a comparison, they’re between -130 and -140 at ESPN, Fanatics and FanDuel. I bet them at -105 last month, so +120 seems more than fair. And as a reminder, always shop for the best number, especially when betting futures.

They’re still the team to beat, especially in the East. But their title chances took a hit based on Wednesday’s result at the Garden.

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On your sports media and sports betting notes…

You can watch ABR’s live coverage of the NHC by clicking the image above!

➡️ In a perfect world, I’d be posting this week’s Four-Pack from my hotel room in Las Vegas, site of this year’s National Horseplayer Championship (NHC). You can’t buy your entry to the NHC: you have to win a qualifying tournament leading up to the event in order to get it. I’ve tried dozens of times over the years and 2024 - like the previous five years before it - I failed.

As horse racing continues to battle a multitude of issues, I think one potential area for growth and a chance to attract new players is tournament play—and sports betting is a big reason why.

These tournaments are structured like the longshot parlays and same-game parlays that have become the driving force in the massive growth of sports betting in the United States - bet a little to win a lot - with he odds of winning admittedly very low. There are people who spent less than $100 total (including the NTRA yearly fee of $50) to qualify for the NHC this weekend. With a grand prize of $825k being awarded to the winner Sunday and over 800 entries this year, $50 invested for a 1 in 800 chance at almost a million bucks is indeed betting a little for the chance at a life-changing score.

Even the structure to many of the feeder tournaments that qualify you for the NHC are like parlays, where you have to put in all your bets before the first race starts. Called “pick and pray” tournaments, it’s basically what you’re doing as a parlay bettor.

It also helps tournament play and interest to have a little star power. Thanks to Elio Imbornone and Barstool Sports, the 2025 NHC has that.

Known as Mr. Ice to many Barstool fans and hockey bettors, Elio has a pair of the 800-plus entries in this year’s NHC. He qualified last year, pushed his entry back to 2025, and then qualified again this year.

“I was horrible last weekend, so I’m hoping in the law of averages and can bounce back this weekend,” Elio told me Thursday when I asked him how he felt heading into the weekend. Spoken like a true horseplayer.

The NHC is a marathon. On Day 1 (Friday), you have to bet mythical $2 win/place bets on six mandatory races and then 10 other races from around the country, your choice. Day 2 (Saturday) has eight mandatory and another 12 optional races. The Top 10% on the leaderboard after Day 2, including ties, will advance to the Semi-Final round on Day 3. From there, the Top 10 will move to a Final Table Sunday afternoon. It’s a lot.

“I already handicapped the mandatory races,” Elio says. “I will not be frying my brain to try and handicap 100s of races.” It sounds like he’ll be shopping around for his optional races to bet on Friday and Saturday.

Making the trip to Vegas with Elio is his longtime friend and founder of Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy, along with Dave’s camera guy, Austin. The content that Elio and Dave have created over the years from big horse racing days is some of the most entertaining and watched in the industry. Having them create content around the NHC is a big deal for racing and potentially tournament interest.

So is the coverage of this year’s NHC, led by Dan Tordjman and the team at America’s Best Racing. ABR will broadcast live this weekend from the NHC, with streaming video and handicapping coverage starting on Friday and going through the Final Table on Sunday.

“We're hoping to take people inside the world’s most popular betting contest for horse racing,” Tordjman told me. “We’ll have players on live with us - like, who are these guys who come to Vegas every year to compete in this contest? We’re also going to be handicapping the races live for anyone who wants to bet along with us.”

If Elio and Portnoy make a run into Sunday, you can bet there will be people Stoolies tuning into the ABR LiveStream who have never bet on a horse race, but want to root the boys on.

If it sounds like I’m rooting for Elio, I am. He’s a fellow degenerate that doesn’t pretend he always wins, like so many of the slimeballs in the sports betting space. And he’s not here trying to sell some shady discord or picks service.

“Trying to catch lightning in a bottle,” he says of his chances this weekend.

A win for Elio would be a win for the good guys - and a major boost to the interest in the world’s most popular betting contest for horse racing.

➡️ Many of you scroll right to this section of the newsletter each Friday for WEEI/Sports Hub gossip. I don’t have a lot this week other than this opinion on Boston’s newest afternoon drive sports show.

The part-time nature of Ted Johnson’s role on WEEI Afternoons was again an issue for listeners this week: specifically, any listener that wanted Ted’s take on the busy first day of Patriots free-agency. Ted does not do the show on Mondays. In fact, if you’re a WEEI Afternoons fan, you had to wait until Tuesday at 3 p.m. for Ted’s Take because he does not come in until an hour after the show starts.

Radio’s only real advantage over podcasts is the immediacy. You can get the reaction to a big game, trade, sound bite, whatever - right away. You lose this advantage when the guy who is the show's focal point when he is on, is only working part-time hours and getting a full-time billing.

➡️ We’re now 13 days out and still no announcement from WEEI or the Boston Red Sox about Will Flemming being named as Joe Castiglione’s replacement. And as best I can tell, Will Middlebrooks—who’s slated to be Flemming’s radio partner this season—has done just one game on the radio this spring, with Castiglione. I will say I am not the only person who believes this transition has been handled awkwardly by WEEI and the Sox, especially given the pomp and circumstance for the revamped NESN announcing team a few weeks ago.

➡️ John Feinstein, one of the best sports writers of the last 40 years, died suddenly Thursday at the age of 68. His behind-the-scenes look at Bob Knight and Indiana Basketball in ‘A Season on the Brink’ is quite simply one of the best sports books ever written. I somehow got an audio cassette version of the book as a teenager, complete with Feinstein as the narrator. I am not exaggerating when I say I listened to it dozens of times and I’m sure it was one of the first books that made me want to write and talk about sports for a living - I’m guessing I’m not alone. If by some chance you have not read it, add it to your reading list this summer. His former colleague Michael Wilbon talked about Feinstein on Thursday’s PTI and is worth a view.

And with that, we have for sure said it all.

Back tomorrow with news on a Kentucky Derby contest and event I’m fired up to be a part of - plus we get to handicap a new race on the Derby Trail. I hope to have that sent out by 11 a.m. Our Derby Prep picks have a 20% ROI heading into the weekend…just sayin’.

Good luck with all your college basketball bets this weekend. I'd be okay if Ludvig Åberg would like to win The Players. Same for you, Austin Eckroat.

Thanks for reading and hopefully subscribing as well.

Good weekend…and Go Huskies.