Friday Four-Pack 3.22.24

Ohtani in gambling trouble? A Dynasty conspiracy theory. More bad news for the average horseplayer. Go UConn!

Not the headlines Major League Baseball was looking for during their “opening week.” With the Dodgers and the Padres playing games in South Korea, the story was certainly not about baseball.

Instead, the focus landed squarely on the most interesting player in American professional sports, Shohei Ohtani.

ESPN broke the story that Ohtani had fired his longtime interpreter “amid massive theft.” But was it actually theft? Here’s the important passage of the ESPN story that points to a coverup.

During the Tuesday interview arranged by Ohtani's spokesman, Mizuhara, 39, told ESPN that he asked Ohtani, 29, last year to pay off his gambling debt, which multiple sources said had ballooned to at least $4.5 million. Mizuhara said that he previously had placed bets via DraftKings and assumed bets placed through Bowyer were legal.

"Obviously, he [Ohtani] wasn't happy about it and said he would help me out to make sure I never do this again," Mizuhara said. "He decided to pay it off for me.

"I want everyone to know Shohei had zero involvement in betting. I want people to know I did not know this was illegal. I learned my lesson the hard way. I will never do sports betting ever again."

But on Wednesday afternoon, Mizuhara told ESPN that Ohtani had no knowledge of his gambling debts and that Ohtani had not transferred money to the bookmaker's associate.

It’s all speculation and we don’t have the whole story yet, but I don’t believe that Ohtani was the one gambling with an illegal bookie. The guy cares so little about money he deferred millions in his deal with the Dodgers. Plus, it would have come out before this. He’s too big a star.

What’s much more likely is Major League Baseball being so petrified of a gambling scandal involving Ohtani that they jumped in and pivoted off gambling and onto theft. And in the process, they made this much worse, whether they’ll admit it or not.

The coverup is only going to lead to more digging and more speculation. MLB didn’t help themselves by suggesting Ohtani would not be part of any investigation.

That’s an excellent point, Lou.

Legal sports betting has become a huge deal for professional sports. You have the sponsorship deals, obviously. But you also have hundreds (thousands?) of content creators talking about your sport daily, through the lens of sports betting.

MLB and every other league have put themselves in a position where they NEED sports betting. It’s free marketing. And having Ohtani tied to any betting scandal is a non-starter.

So you create a coverup. And now people are going to start digging.

Because it may sound harmless, like a friend just helping out another friend, but if Ohatani paid an illegal bookie for Mizuhara’s gambling debts, he’s in huge trouble. MLB Rule 21.f covers this.

(f) OTHER MISCONDUCT. Nothing herein contained shall be construed as exclusively defining or otherwise limiting acts, transactions, practices or conduct not to be in the best interests of Baseball; and any and all other acts, transactions, practices or conduct not to be in the best interests of Baseball are prohibited and shall be subject to such penalties, including permanent ineligibility, as the facts in the particular case may warrant.

I’d say paying an illegal bookie might not be in the best interest of Major League Baseball. Of bigger importance is the fact that it’s likely illegal.

Meanwhile, this line from the ESPN story is hilarious.

Mizuhara said that he previously had placed bets via DraftKings and assumed bets placed through Bowyer were legal.

Mizuhara has been in the United States since 1991. He worked for the Red Sox as Hideki Okajima’s interpreter in 2013 and has been around baseball since. There is no chance he thought DraftKings and a renowned illegal bookie were the same things. Come on.

Hopefully, Mizuhara didn’t have BYU going to the Elite Eight in his bracket as I did.

What a wild story. Please bet responsibly.

Meanwhile, I have a few more words on The Dynasty Docuseries, including a likely insane conspiracy theory. And Go UConn.

That and so much more in today’s Four-Pack.

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On some final thoughts about Apple TV’s The Dynasty: New England Patriots…

“I felt like I got kinda duped.”

Of course, former Patriot Devin McCourty spoke on his own feelings as a viewer and interview subject of Apple TV’s The Dynasty: New England Patriots.

But whether McCourty knows it or not, many Patriots fans feel the same way after watching the 10-part docuseries.

On NBC’s Football Night in America, both McCourty and Rodney Harrison expressed annoyance with how the series turned out.

“I was like man, this is going to be great — the storytelling, we’re talking about this and that. Everything that we all gave to the 20 years that it encompassed, they only hit anything that was negative,” said McCourty in the interview.

“It didn’t tell the stories like of me coming, and [his former teammate, running back] Corey Dillon. I interviewed for five or six hours in New York and all they had me saying was, ‘F–k em’ all, f–k em’ all.’ That’s it,” Harrison added.

ESPN’s Howard Bryant got more camera time than Rodney. In fact, Harrison’s signing with the team is barely covered in the series, like so many of the other important moments over the team’s two decades of dominance.

Fans, like former players, were frustrated by the show.

I thought I was done writing about the 10-part series, but a few lingering thoughts.

• If you’ve read all the negative reviews of this thing - and there are many - you should still watch it. Call it hate watching if you want but still watch it.

• They should have waited another four or five years to make this. If this was rushed because of some push to get Robert Kraft into the Hall of Fame, it was a mistake. If it was timed to be a rebuttal to all the issues the Krafts have had with Bill Belichick over the years, that was also a mistake. I mean, they had current players being asked about the Brady/Belichick relationship while those players were still on the Patriots. Rush, rush, rush. Rush job. Too soon.

• I get that Belichick probably sniffed out what was going on here and didn’t want to play along in this production of Kraft Fan Fiction, but his unwillingness to talk about much of anything on camera kills the project.

• When do we get a Belichick rebuttal? A book? His own documentary? Vent his issues through a trusted media source?

• Matt Hamacheck…not great. No Brady contract talk? Really?

• Again, Howard Bryant got more airtime than Rodney Harrison. I mean…what are we doing?

• To punctuate how pro-Kraft the thing is, remember that while Belichick’s letter to Donald Trump is made a huge deal, there is ZERO mention of Kraft donating $1 million to Trump in 2017. Just one of the dozen ways the series, like the Jeff Benedict book that precedes it, paints Kraft in a favorable light.

If you did watch it - or end up watching it - leave your own review in the comments below.

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On a Dynasty conspiracy theory…

I had someone who has covered the Patriots as part of their media career ask me a really good question after last week’s newsletter dropped:

“Imagine if Bill was still the coach.”

A quick reminder, just a few of the anri-Belichick highlights of The Dynatsy.

• The Aaron Hernandez episode suggests Belichick resisted cutting the player, even after he had been charged with murder.

• Robert Kraft calls Belichick “a pain in the tush.”

• Robert Kraft puts all the blame for the Super Bowl 52 loss on Belichick.

  • In the process, says Belichick didn’t put the team first in that situation, referring to the benching of Malcolm Butler.

• Robert Kraft claims he needed to “keep his eyes on Bill” heading into Super Bowl 53 because of the Butler decision in Super Bowl 52. Like a teacher who has to look after a troublemaking kid in class.

Let’s just use those. Those are not things you say on camera if you think your coach might return for another season. It would have been a shitstorm for Bill and the Krafts to keep being asked about this stuff if Bill was still here.

The Patriots/Colts game in Germany took place on November 12.

Tom E. Curran first reported with confidence that Belichick would not be back for 2024 in the days after that Colts game.

On November 16, the preview teaser for The Dynasty was released to the media, along with the actual February 2024 release date.

Again, knowing what you said about Bill on camera, you don’t start promoting the series if you think Bill might be back.

The timeline of the game, report, and release suggests the Krafts saw the docuseries before it was released. Before it was even teased.

So in Germany, it comes out that “Hey, we have this documentary…it’s going to make Bill look bad…he’s not coming back.” Or “Bill’s not coming back and wait til you see how bad this series makes him look.” Choose your own adventure.

In some funky way, it’s all tied together. Right?

What if the team had reeled off seven straight wins to end the season? Imagine this thing coming out after that? With Bill back? Again, no chance.

And if much of this was taped last summer, as has been reported by the director, is there even like a 1% chance they had already committed to moving on from Bill after the season no matter what? Or did Kraft tape new stuff once he knew he was ready to move on from Bill?

I’m going in circles. Might be the dumbest couple of paragraphs I’ve ever written. But I’ve been obsessing over this for a few days. Now you have to read it.

The whole thing comes across as much more calculated and vindictive the more I think about it. Maybe that’s not a conspiracy theory, just a new opinion. Like I said, I’m rambling.

Given how it was promoted as something that fans would love, the fact it turned into such a hit piece on Belichick is sad.

With that out of my system, I’m finally ready to move on from this. I think.

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On a brutal report if you’re an average horseplayer…

I am very confident when I say that there is so Substack Newsletter in the world that has spent more time than this one over the last 12 months when it comes to trying to explain how raw of a deal the average horseplayer is getting these days v. the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups.

It’s a complicated and nuanced issue that I have tried to make as simple as possible so that both players and non-players who read this can understand the absurdity of what is going on.

This video is one example.

Not as simple to follow is the very well-researched story this week from TDN - Computer Assisted Wagering: Anatomy of a Deal

It’s a long, complicated story, even if you know the material. Two key points.

1. Handle is the amount of money bet on the races. Handle fuels everything. When handle goes down, purses (the amount connections win when their horse wins) go down. Purses go down, owners buy fewer horses. Fewer horses, fewer races. Fewer races, no more sport.
   
   That’s why these CAW groups are vital to race tracks - they bet so much. We find out in the story that one of these groups accounted for 10% of Del Mar’s total handle last summer. These CAW groups get special deals from the tracks (rebates, access, etc) to make sure they keep betting huge dollars.
   
   If just one of these whales goes away, handle could drop drastically, creating a major domino effect. These CAW groups account for more and more of the handle as the average player walks away from the sport.

2. And why are they walking away? Well, when you give the CAW groups a sweetheart deal, guess who gets screwed? The rest of us. From Pat Cummings:

Takeout rates are pre-payout taxes applied by a horse racing track to every type of bet made. These rates can vary depending on the bet type.

So the result of giving these CAW groups a much lower takeout rate is a much higher takeout rate for guys and gals like you and me.

“A U.S. wagering ecosystem that is VERY profitable (15%+) for a very few and with -25% blended take for the many drives mass market players away from the sport faster,” Cummings added on X.com

BINGO. WE GOT BINGO!

When these types of deals are impacting the average player in such a negative way, it needs to be reported. We haven’t even talked about the fact that some of these CAW groups are owned in part by the same folks who run the racetracks. Talk about a double-dip. Wild.

The key takeaway is that when you’re betting the races in California - and likely many other major race circuits - the big guys are getting a smaller takeout rate and you’re getting screwed.

On your MutStack notes…

• As expected, Jared Carrabis to Underdog, complete with the return of the Section 10 name and brand. He explained how he was able to get the name back from Barstool Sports and his communications with Dave Portnoy on the deal very early in the new podcast.

• A bad couple of days for Massachusetts’ casinos. First, you had the report MGM was looking to sell its Springfield, MA casino, basically saying they overvalued the area and the amount of business they’d have. Less officially, word from a colleague at Encore Boston Harbor Thursday Night that just three cashiers were working in the sportsbook on the opening night of the NCAA tournament. Encore does not have a mobile app deal right now, so you’re basically turning the sportsbook into a glorified sports bar, with people betting on mobile apps and watching the games on your TVs.

• You WILL be able to bet on the Sweet 16 games that take place next week in Boston. You still can’t bet on college teams from Massachusetts in the regular season. But the tourney games in Boston are no issue. College player props, regrettably, are still off the betting menu in the Bay State.

• Pushed for a Tee Higgins trade and mocked some draft experts on Andrew Callahan’s Pats Interference podcast this week. Watch here.

El Pres is on board. Kirk is on board. The world is picking UConn.

And Dave’s right, that’s the issue. Everyone is on the bandwagon.

But they’re that good this year. I’m confident that no team can beat them, they can only beat themselves. Arizona might have a home-court edge in the Final Four, but can’t worry about that now.

UConn, Zona, Houston, and Creighton Final Four. UConn over Houston. Chalk City, I’m aware.

I like Colorado, New Mexico, and Grand Canyon on Friday. Feel free to #FadeMut.

Good luck with your bets and brackets. Back Saturday in StackCapping to preview the Louisiana Derby and Jeff Ruby Stakes. And have a few more tourney bets.

Thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
Go Huskies.