Friday Four-Pack 4.12.24

My sports betting stupidity. Annoyed watching the Masters. Sox trade time. #Eclipsing.

We finally have some answers about Shohei Ohtani’s interpreter Ippei Mizuhara and the sports betting debt he racked up with an illegal bookmaker, but a new question has emerged:

What did he bet that $10 on?

Table tennis? Soccer? Some 14-leg parlay that would have cleaned up the reportedly $16 million he stole from Ohtani without the star’s knowledge?

There’s ‘rich’ and then there’s ‘so rich you don’t notice $16 million out of your account.’

And according to court documents, that’s what happened. Mizuhara incurred millions of dollars in gambling debt with an illegal bookie, then lied to Ohtnai’s bank to make them believe that he was the account holder. That allowed him to wire millions to cover gambling losses over three years, even though he was getting BURIED betting sports.

It started pretty innocently. From the complaint:

On or about September 24, 2021, MIZUHARA messaged BOOKMAKER 2, “I’ve just been messing around with soccer, there’s games on 24/7 lol. I took UCLA but they lost outright!!!”

Mizuhara knew he sucked at sports betting, but he could not stop.

On or about November 14, 2022, MIZUHARA messaged BOOKMAKER 1 stating “I’m terrible at this sport betting thing huh? Lol . . . Any chance u can bump me again?? As you know, you don’t have to worry about me not paying!!”

It wasn’t his money, but the bookmaker didn’t have to worry! At one point, Mizuhara “swears on his mom,” he’ll eventually start paying down his debt.

Either way, Ohtani’s guy keeps getting more credit from the bookmaker.

On or about June 22, 2023, MIZUHARA messaged BOOKMAKER 1 stating “I got my ass kicked again lol . . . . Any chance I can get one last bump? This will be my last one for a while if I lose it. . . .”

Then as noted, THE VERY NEXT DAY.

On or about June 23, 2023, MIZUHARA messaged BOOKMAKER 1 stating “I’m the worst lol . . . can’t catch a break. . . . Can I get one last bump? I swear this is gonna be my last until I get the balance down significantly . . . . I promise this will be the last bump for a while.” BOOKMAKER 1 responded the same day, stating “Ok np. Done.”

And finally in March this year, the admission of guilt.

On or about March 20, 2024, MIZUHARA messaged BOOKMAKER 1 stating, “Have you seen the reports?” BOOKMAKER 1 responded, “Yes, but that’s all bullshit. Obviously you didn’t steal from him. I understand it’s a cover job I totally get it.” MIZUHARA then responded to BOOKMAKER 1, “Technically I did steal from him. it’s all over for me.”

Yes, it’s funny. It’s also very sad. Mizuhara clearly had an issue and could not stop betting. When it’s not your money, it’s pretty easy to keep firing away. Especially when the guy with the money never actually notices.

It’s supposed to be fun, betting sports. Reading the text messages in this criminal complaint, sports betting wasn’t very fun for Mizuhara.

Even though this is an illegal bookmaker, expect this story to result in legal books (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) coming under public scrutiny for targeting problem gamblers. In fact, it’s already started.

As for Ohtani, I saw some X.com chatter from people who don’t believe the story: they think Ohtani was the one gambling. Reading the entire complaint, I don’t see it. Pretty clear it was Mizuhara.

If Ohtani is guilty of anything, it’s having terrible management around him. Like holy shit guys, no one noticed the millions of dollars being transferred out of the account each week? Or the sports memorabilia that Mizuhara was able to afford.

Seriously, Shohei, fire everyone.

But I don’t think Ohtani was betting. Maybe you do? Let me know in the comments below.

Meanwhile, Round 1 of the Masters was annoying. As was a betting mistake I made last week.

That’s all ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the Red Sox commitment to winning…

Quite the opening homestand for your Boston Red Sox.

There were signs of life coming off a 7-3 West Coast road trip to start the season. Maybe the pitching was better than expected. Maybe the team would rally around manager Alex Cora, who is managing without a contract for 2024. Maybe a wild card battle would be part of the 2024 Sox storyline.

Then the Orioles series happened.

The pitching allowed 7+ runs in all three games. The defense was an embarrassment. Jarren Duran is freaking out in the locker room. Just a miserable few days.

And now Trevor Story is out of the season. His defense in the infield was going to be critical for the team’s already shorthanded pitching staff. It also helps cover for Rafael Devers over at third base, who is not a very good defender.

Hanging over this rough stretch and the entire 2024 season is the miserable offseason the team just had. They stayed under the luxury tax threshold (again) after promising a “full-throttle” approach. In the process, management forced fans and media to wonder about the team’s commitment to winning.

Underdog Fantasy’s Jared Carrabis alluded to this idea on Tuesday night’s creatively named “The Baseball Hour” with Tony Massarotti on 98.5 The Sports Hub, and he’s 100% right - If you want to show fans you actually give a crap about this team and season, you go make a trade to replace Trevor Story.

(Random side note before we move on - Mazz calls Carrabis “CrabGrass,” which I guess kind of sounds like Carrabis. Doesn’t really matter, it’s the dumbest nickname in the history of mankind. There’s not even a close second. CrabGrass?)

David Hamilton is not an everyday MLB shortstop. Neither is Romy Gonzalez. Ceddanne Rafaela is the centerfielder, not the shortstop.

Go. Get. A. Real. Shortstop.

It will show the fans you’re trying this season but more importantly, it will show the players the same thing. After sitting on all that money in the offseason, what do you think THEY think about the Sox approach?

Jordan Montgomery reportedly didn’t want to play here because he questioned the team’s commitment to winning. I can only imagine what the Sox own players are thinking. Or how about what the manager thinks?

Acquire Willy Adames. Or UConn product Nick Ahmed. You’re the Boston Red Sox, even if this offseason you played it like the Tampa Bay Rays.

Replace your injured shortstop and show fans - and your own clubhouse - you’re invested in this season.

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On the annoyance of Day 1 at the Masters…

For a golf fan, it is supposed to be one of the best days of the year.

And even with the delay, Day 1 of the 2024 Masters delivered. Bryson showing up all Bryson with new, weird irons and shooting a career-best 65 at Augusta. The winds kicking up and making life miserable for the best golfers in the world. Tiger striping it off the tee at No. 1 and getting in for birdie to start his day. Verne on No. 16. The Masters App. All great.

Unless you’re a negative dink like me who kept thinking

“It’s so stupid these guys don’t compete against each other every week.”

Almost a year ago, PGA commissioner Jay Monahan shocked the world by announcing that there was a deal in place between the PGA and PIF (Liv Golf). The first paragraph reads as pure gobbledygook.

NEW YORK and RIYADH, Saudi Arabia and PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla., June 6, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- The PGA TOUR, DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund (PIF) today announced a landmark agreement to unify the game of golf, on a global basis. The parties have signed an agreement that combines PIF's golf-related commercial businesses and rights (including LIV Golf) with the commercial businesses and rights of the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour into a new, collectively owned, for-profit entity to ensure that all stakeholders benefit from a model that delivers maximum excitement and competition among the game's best players. 

Heading into Day 2 of the Masters 10 months later we’re nowhere close to a deal, something Rory McIlroy admitted just last week. No one has any clue when a merger might take place. What a merger might look like. Monahan ducks the question completely when asked about it. The sport hangs in the balance.

What the hell is going on????

Obviously, this is the best field of the year, so I’m not looking for just 90 of the best golfers in the world competing every week on Tour. But the sport is suffering with many of their stars bailing for LIV, superstar Jon Rahm being the latest. Tour ratings are down this year and it won’t be totally shocking to see Masters ratings down, too.

You have this large group of young, talented players - the best players in the world - and they’re not competing on the same tour. Golf media won’t say it, but the product is just not as good. The declining TV ratings expose that.

And as a bettor I’ll say it - the betting product is not as good (or interesting) without many of these guys.

Yeah, Tour TV ratings are down, but LIV’s are non-existent. Old man take incoming - the LIV product is unwatchable. Try and tune in sometime. Bad scoreboard. Bad music. Team golf - which unless it’s the Ryder Cup or the Olympics does nothing for me.

Those players who left for LIV traded relevancy and real competition for huge bags of cash. Amazingly, it has made some of the best golfers in the world easily forgettable.

You do forget about these guys until the Masters rolls around and then you’re reminded how dumb it is they’re not all competing in the same league. How one ‘league’, with its guaranteed money, is not really competition at all.

And then if you’re like me, you get angry on what is supposed to be a great day for golf fans.

Angry at Jay Monahan. At the players who bailed. At Greg Norman, for well, no real reason at all. At ESPN for their below-average Masters coverage (thank God for the Masters app). At Matt Fitzpatrick for those back-to-back bogeys late.

I’m rambling. But you get the point.

The point being (I think) that as good as the Masters is, this year it’s a reminder that the sport as a whole could be better - much better - but the people in charge don’t seem to care that much about it.

Sooner or later the fans will start to feel the same way.

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On this headline from Pro Football Talk …

Nope. I can’t do it. Just enjoy retirement, Tom. Please.

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On making sure to bet your opinion…

It is a lot of fun - and gratifying - when you score on a sports bet. Or a horse bet. It’s great to be right. If you’re in the sports betting social media space, you re-post your pick with a bunch of ✅✅✅ and probably a few 💰💰💰.

But even if you’re not in that godforsaken space, you probably brag to your buddies in the group chat when you cash a winner. Or remind the group you tried to give them the winner, but no one listened.

Idiots.

And it’s okay to celebrate winners because there’ll be a lot of losers along the way. That’s part of the game. The people to claim they’re winning every bet? They’re lying. Or not betting. Maybe both.

No, losing is not the cardinal sin. That’s reserved for the kind of stupidity I displayed last Saturday.

11. Society Man (30-1) 
Mut: Of the impossible horses on paper, this is my favorite. Troubled starts in back-to-back races, including a start in the Withers as a maiden. Then last time with Lasix, wins for fun at a mile on a wet track. Now no Lasix and back to a mile and an eighth. What a wild ride. Kind of rooting for him but no chance, right?

That was my analysis of Society Man in last weekend’s Wood Memorial. In a race where I did not like the favorite, I found a dirtied-up horse that made some sense underneath at a huge price.

I even talked about how I might bet the race.

RESILIENCE would be my top pick. I’ll really push TUSCAN SKY in the exacta. In some world where he’s 4-1, he would warrant a win bet. SOCIETY MAN and UNCLE HEAVY underneath in exactas, too. If I get beat with DETERMINISTIC at 7/5, so be it.

And so to this handicapper, it wasn’t surprising when Resilience won the race at a square price. What was surprising to most bettors was our sneaky price play, Society Man, getting home for second at a wild 106-1.

Paid $54 to place. Another $27 to show. The excata? With the horse we picked to win the race actually winning? That paid $742 for every two bucks you bet.

And I didn’t have a dime of it. Even after saying I’d bet it.

SOCIETY MAN and UNCLE HEAVY underneath in exactas, too.

I have no excuse. I bet the winner. I was watching the races, supposedly paying attention. When they scratched El Grande O heading to the gate I got it in my head that Tuscan Sky, while he might have been overbet in this spot, might be able to have it his own way up front.

So I started making trifecta bets keying him and the winner, bets I had not planned on making. And in the process, end up not making the easy $2 exacta bet that paid almost $800.

So, so reactionary. And so dumb. Instead of being thrilled to tab the winner at almost 5-1, I’m sick because I didn’t play it the way I had mapped out and cost myself a bundle.

It’s fine to use late information for betting but it should not take you away from something you put work into, had good odds on, and had planned on betting.

It was an expensive reminder for me and now a free one for you - BET YOUR OPINION. That’s the cardinal sin here. I had an opinion and failed to properly bet it. Sports, horses, life, whatever.

Over time, I’d rather lose with my own dumb opinions than win with someone else's. But that’s all moot when you have a good opinion and fail to bet it, for whatever reason.

Winning betting on sports (horses) is hard enough. Don’t make it harder on yourself by not betting your opinion.

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On your Friday MutStack notes….

• NBC Sports Boston will celebrate the career of the great Mike Gorman on Friday night. The Voice of the Celtics is retiring after this season and will call his final regular season game on Sunday. Gorman is the best team play-by-play voice of my Boston ‘fandom.’ He and Tommy Heinsohn were as good as it gets, thanks in part to Gorman’s ability to play straight man to Heinsohn’s colorful approach. He also had the patience to not talk over every big play: to let the natural sound of the game be the star after a big shot. He was great at calling a game and will be missed on a nightly basis starting next season.

• An excellent John Tomase column on Mike Gorman Friday morning.

• Looks like a summer launch in Massachusetts for the mobile sportsbook Bally Bet. They’ve held a license for over a year, but plan to launch at the end of June. Hopefully for us, with good sign-up bonuses.

• What more can I say about UConn basketball? Never a doubt, even against Purdue on Monday night.

• Rough Opening Day for the Red Sox radio pregame show on WEEI. Never got to the Trevor Story injury news until 40 minutes after it was announced. Maybe a little later.

• Love the Jrue Holiday deal. Now, can some of the folks who cried over Marcus Smart’s departure admit they overrated him? He was a good player, not a great player. And the team is better without him.

• Yes, I did spend 10 hours in the car Monday to take in the solar eclipse in Northern Vermont. Yes, it was awesome. Yes, my wife had been planning this for six months and it was a big deal to her. Yes, the ride home was pure torture and I for sure swore at her under my breath a few times at the idea of missing a few minutes of the UConn game. But the main headline, again, it was awesome. And UConn cruised. So it worked out.

  

  

  #Eclipsing in Vermont

For sure, with that, we have indeed said it all.

Tomorrow’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland does award Derby points and will impact the Kentucky Derby. We’ll handicap the race and react to it on X.com. So follow along there. We’ll have a Derby Prep wrap-up and early Derby thoughts next Saturday at StackCapping.

Enjoy the Masters. Good luck with all your bets.

And seriously, thanks for reading.

Good weekend.