Friday Four-Pack 4.19.24
Belichick fights back. WEEI bludgeoned in the ratings...again. NBA lifetime ban. Notes!
The editors at ESPN.com went with “‘Voted off the island': Inside Bill Belichick's failed job hunt” for the title of Wednesday’s juicy insider look at Bob Kraft potentially submarining Belichick’s chances at a head coaching gig with the Atlanta Falcons.
An alternative title might have been “Belichick’s Revenge…at least the first serving of it.”
They probably made the right choice going with theirs. But make no mistake, Belichick’s fingerprints were all over the investigative report.
But in a conversation with Blank, Kraft delivered a stark assessment of Belichick's character, according to a source who spoke to two people: a close Kraft friend and a longtime Belichick confidant. The source quoted the Belichick source as saying, "Robert called Arthur to warn him not to trust Bill." That account was backed up, the source said, by the close Kraft friend.
Multiple sources said that Kraft spoke with "some candor" to Blank about Belichick, though the sources declined to elaborate. One source close to Belichick said Kraft "was a big part" of why the Falcons passed on hiring him.
The sources said Kraft made clear to Blank that "you'll never have a warm conversation with" Belichick, echoing what Bill Parcells told Kraft in 1996 when he wanted to bust the budget and hire Belichick. "Blank likes coaches who feel part of a family," a Falcons source said, "and it wasn't going to be that way with Bill."
These three paragraphs are getting the most attention and rightfully so.
If Kraft indeed buried Belichick privately, after publically twisting his arm for a happyville, goodbye handshake in front of all those cameras at Gillette Stadium, then shame on him. If he was so thrilled to be rid of him, just let him go land somewhere else.
But it’s clear this stuff (and much of the ESPN story) came from the Belichick camp. They wanted this out there to make Kraft look bad.
And who can blame him? The Apple TV docuseries trashed Belichick at every turn. The team has made a point to tell anyone who will listen how different the organization will be now that Bill is gone.
Belichick also, like many in the New England circle, quietly observed the attacks on the Patriot Way in recent months, through Belichick's job hunt and fallout from the docuseries. "A lot of people are pissed," a Belichick confidant said. "His name was smeared."
So how would Bill eventually respond?
He’s reportedly writing a book, but more like Bill Walsh’s “Finding the Winning Edge.” So that wouldn’t be it. It would not be very Belichickian to do a sit-down interview with some reporter and go line-by-line on everything he would like to say about the Krafts from the last three or four years.
But this - making Bob Kraft look petty and vindictive against the greatest coach of all time - feels like Belichick 101. I’m sure he was thrilled to see the team’s spokesman Stacey James have to deny all of this on the record.
This story comes out Wednesday morning. Bill is on TV with Pat McAfee on Wednesday afternoon, in front of all his Super Bowl trophies.
A pretty good little public relations move by The Hoodie.
Again, who can blame him?
Do I believe Bill is willing to give up control of an entire organization and just go coach? Or that he had some epiphany that maybe separate GM/Coach is actually good? No way - that’s Camp Belichick planting the seed for the next cycle of coaching hires. All part of the Hoodie PR Plan.
And I doubt it’s over. The Krafts will leak more Belichick dirt. Bill will volley back through his media channels. On and on and on.
Wait until Belichick doesn't come back for Tom Brady Day in June. Ha! That will be a shitstorm. Or maybe he’ll be there but make sure to tell his media friends “I’m only doing this for Tom.” Maybe he doesn’t get invited. There does not appear to be an end in sight to Kraft v. Belichick now that Bill has started to fire back.
Meanwhile, the team is a week away from their most important draft pick since 1993. WEEI got crushed in the ratings again. And the NBA banned a player for life.
All part of today’s Four-Pack.
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On yet another tough ratings book for Sports Radio WEEI…
“They are DEAD.”
That was the reaction of one radio veteran when WEEI’s winter numbers became public on Tuesday.
First the ratings, then the most unbelievable stat from those ratings below.
Radio ratings periods (winter, spring, summer, fall) consist of 12 separate one-week segments. A weekly is not the end-all-be-all: it’s only 8.3% of the quarter.
So when Sports Radio WEEI’s dismal weekly surfaced last month, it didn’t guarantee another blowout loss at the hands of 98.5 The Sports Hub.
But now with the final numbers in, it’s clear in this case that one weekly told the complete story of Boston’s sports radio Winter ratings.
As reported publically by Boston Radio Watch and Boston.com, the story those numbers tell is of another both dominant and predictable Sports Hub win.
I’ve included the Fall 2023 numbers as well. This is for Men25-54. Winter is on the right.
Not much more to say.
Once part of the fabric of Boston sports, WEEI is now an afterthought among listeners to Boston sports radio.
The lone outlier continues to be WEEI’s The Greg Hill Show, but even there is bad news for WEEI: their margin of defeat actually increased with The Sports Hub’s launch of a new show, Toucher and Hardy. People keep telling me that’s where The Hub is vulnerable, AM drive, but they keep winning by double digits, even during the launch of a new show.
From 10 AM on, it is an utter Sports Hub domination. The most remarkable numbers from the winter book can be found in those timeslots (midday, afternoon drive and nights).
For the March monthly (February 29 to March 27), all three of Gresh and Fauria, Jones and Mego and The Rich Keefe Show each registered under 2.0 ratings among Men25-54.
That is…almost impossible.
I think based on a few conversations I’ve had over the last two days, there’s a bit of finger-pointing going on inside the WEEI offices RE: who is at fault, who sucks, etc. But that happens in sports talk radio even when ratings are good.
This is where readers (and sports radio listeners) want some news of impending changes at WEEI.
I got nothing for you.
We wrote about this extensively just a few weeks ago and it’s worth a re-read, with a quick stop on this part -
It would not completely floor me if any major changes are made after the Celtics season, to avoid having such a lopsided ratings book coincide with the debut of a new, reshuffled lineup: a lineup that’s being reshuffled again because the last reshuffling failed.
WEEI market manager Mike Thomas’ rebuilt lineup failed, but I don’t think he’s stupid. Why roll out a new, reshuffled lineup, only to have it overshadowed by what will be a huge spring book for 98.5 The Sports Hub?
Celtics and Bruins playoff runs, plus the NFL Draft? Unless the Red Sox bring a huge audience (very unlikely), the spring book will be worse than the winter book for WEEI. And the fall book before that. Seriously, wait until July 1 to make any changes at this point.
Looming over changes in WEEI’s lineup is the change in Audacy's (WEEI’s parent company) ownership, with billionaire George Soros leading a new group that bailed the former radio giant out of bankruptcy.
New ownership usually means cuts, especially at the management level. Who will end up making the decisions on the next WEEI lineup? Is there a real budget to bring in, say Rich Shertenlieb, as has been rumored?
“Same as it always is. Same as it always is,” was the reaction of former WEEI host Kirk Minihane on his show Thursday.
Based on the numbers, Kirk’s departure from the station started the downfall to where WEEI is now: to a place where being bludgeoned in the ratings is normal, where there are no lineup changes (even with those ratings), where a once legacy station is no longer a real factor in a sports-crazy town.
If and when changes are coming, we’ll react here. Until then, it’s just more of the same in the ratings.
On the two biggest stories in Boston sports…
At some point early on in the days of Mut and Merloni, it became clear that “previewing” big games or events on the radio was not the fun part. No, the fun part was reacting to them after they happened.
And both the Patriots No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft and the Celtics playoff run should make for awesome events to react to over the next few weeks. As will the Bruins playoff run, but the expectations on the B’s are nowhere near the pressure on the Patriots and Celtics, respectively. I think even a die-hard Bruins fan would call this a transitional year for the team. They’re not supposed to win now. The Celtics are. So, no knock on the Bruins, but they’re not in the top two, at least going in.
And for such highly-anticipated events, I have some really boring takes.
As someone who loves football and follows the Patriots, I’m supposed to have a strong opinion on what the team should do with their first-round pick. I’ve listened to hours of podcasts and sports radio. Tried to keep updated on the mock drafts and the latest info. I know the top players.
College football expert? Nope.
But it’s as important a pick as the team has ever had. Get this right and all the Kraft/Belichick drama gets forgotten. And you set yourself up for the next version of Super Bowl contention.
Get it wrong? You might become the Panthers, Cardinals, or any other of the NFL’s afterthought franchises - desperate for maybe one or two big primetime games every season.
So don’t screw it up. Don’t get cute with the pick. That’s my take.
You need a quarterback and there will be one there. If you like that guy, take him. My list would be Jayden Daniels > Drake Maye. I’m not picking J.J. McCarthy third overall. Michael Penix Jr. - a confirmed left-handed quarterback - would not be on my list thanks to injury concerns. Two torn ACLs and two shoulder injuries - not at No. 3, no way.
I think (hope?) Daniels might be there at No. 3. Sportsbook odds have both Daniels and Maye priced pretty closely to go No. 2 overall - and this is the Commanders we’re talking about, who knows what they might do.
And then we have this nugget from Establish the Run’s Evan Silva, which I desperately want to believe is true -
3. Patriots – LSU QB Jayden Daniels
2023’s Heisman winner, Daniels led the nation in both yards per pass attempt (11.7) and yards per rushing attempt (8.4). 31-year-old fifth-team journeyman Jacoby Brissett would be New England’s starter if the season began today. Daniels is rumored to be intent on playing for New England after Daniels’ meetings with Washington didn’t go as smoothly.
So yeah, one of the QBs. Don’t get cute with the pick. Cute would be taking Penix Jr. at No. 3. Or drafting Joe Alt in that spot because “he was the best player on our board.”
Don’t do that.
If trading back gets you a haul….I guess that’s in play. But if Daniels or Maye hit and you miss, it’s over. We’ll react to that trade when and if it happens.
As for the Celtics, the odds tell the story.
Implied odds of almost 41% to win the NBA Title over on DraftKings. X.com user CookedbyScott said it better than I ever could.
You’ve been the best team in the NBA for six months. You’ve upgraded your team. You’re healthy when other teams aren’t. You’re supposed to win.
“It’s deadass the biggest failure in NBA history if they don’t win this season.”
Well put, CookedbyScott. Subscribe to his newsletter.
Pats can’t get cute at No. 3 and the Celtics have to win. Those are the takes you subscribed for.
On a lifetime NBA ban for Jontay Porter…
Some quick thoughts.
💰10 MILLION views on that post above, but Woj is wrong. Betting on a team that was tanking is not the most damning thing Porter did. The Raptors were not good and even Porter knew that. No, the worst thing he did was knowingly steal money from bettors and at the same time, help out a friend. From the NBA-
The league’s investigation found that prior to the Raptors’ March 20 game, Porter disclosed confidential information about his own health status to an individual he knew to be an NBA bettor. Another individual with whom Porter associated and knew to be an NBA bettor subsequently placed an $80,000 parlay proposition bet with an online sports book, to win $1.1 million, wagering that Porter would underperform in the March 20 game.
The league’s investigation also found that Porter limited his own game participation to influence the outcome of one or more bets on his performance in at least one Raptors game. In the March 20 game, Porter played only three minutes, claiming that he felt ill. Due to the unusual betting activity and actions of the player, the $80,000 proposition bet was frozen and was not paid out.
That right there is the worst thing he did. I get that betting against his own team sounds bad, but he wasn’t even on the roster when he did that. Sill bad, but this is much worse.
💰With sports betting under fire, this was a noteworthy line from the NBA-
The suspicious bets involving Porter’s performance in the Raptors’ March 20 game were brought to the NBA’s attention by licensed sports betting operators and an organization that monitors legal betting markets.
Bingo! Very true, but also here is the NBA telling the world that Porter might not have been caught without the help of DraftKings, FanDuel, etc. The NBA NEEDS sports betting so anything to make it look better, especially the legal companies that now spend millions with the league in advertising and promotional dollars, will be pushed by the league.
💰 I’d bet a slice at Joannie’s that the NBA finds more on Porter. And it’s noteworthy the investigation remains open. It will not be shocking to discover that more G-League/two-way players are betting on the NBA.
On your Friday Mutstack Notes…
So yeah Thursday’s sit-in on Kirk’s show got a little weird. And that led to Dave Portnoy asking in the first five minutes of The Unnamed Show if I was an alcoholic. Good times. At least Whit had my back. I think. He did shout out MutStack. Listening back, I came across as whiny with Kirk and Co and I did a poor job communicating some things on and off the show. That’s on me. And on producer Jack Coleman, who told me and Mike to be there at 9 for a 9:30 show. Yeah, blame him too.
If you’d like to read the typical SPORTS BETTING IS BAD BUT I’ll NEVER ONCE MENTION HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE ADDICTED TO STATE LOTTERY SCRATCH TICKETS column, The Boston Globe’s Joan Vennochi has you covered. Pure dreck.
A friendly reminder that if you’re planning to bet on the NFL Draft next week, Nick Kostos, Ken Barkley and their guests on You Better, You Bet will lead you to winning bets. They do it every year in the draft. Clockwork.
Does not sound like it was entirely his call, but NESN’s Jack Edwards is set to retire at the end of the Bruins season. Viewers have noticed a drop-off in the quality of Edwards’ calls on TV, where he has been noticeably much slower than he once was. He told the Globe in February that he’d been meeting with doctors for over a year trying to figure out what was going on. ““It doesn’t fit in any slot,” he says. “There have been a couple of guesses, but they haven’t made a definitive diagnosis and they’ve been working on me for a year and a half. It’s very frustrating, as you can imagine, for me to have this slowdown in my speech.”
The Hail Mary lawsuit to try and get Bob Baffert horses into the Kentucky Derby has unsurprisingly failed.
Speaking of, we’re just two weeks out from Kentucky Derby 150 and to celebrate, we’re going to recap the preps and do some way-too-early #Derby150 thoughts tomorrow here at StackCapping. I’m planning a very active Derby Week content schedule.
Good luck with all your NBA/NHL playoff bets. And good luck to me as I try and reseed our backyard after some major landscaping.
Thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
Great write-up Mut!
It's early but I like Honor Marie but not sure he's fast enough. Of the favorites, hard to dislike Repole's Fierceness and my Iowa guy's Catching Fierceness.
Great job again Mike !! Can’t wait for the Derby