Friday Four-Pack 4.4.25
Bill Parcells finally gets the call to the Patriots Hall of Fame. Big week for the Sox. I have some Masters bets for you. Media notes! Upgrade the chair!
And so it begins.
Sure, it’s Opening Day at Fenway, the unofficial start of the Red Sox season.
But for our family - and for probably many of your families as well - it’s the start of the kids’ spring sports season. Soccer, tee-ball, baseball, softball, lacrosse, track and field. I’m probably missing some others.
For our family this year, spring sports means two boys playing on four different baseball teams and two different lacrosse teams. Our Google Calender is a rainbow of various colors representing the six teams. Outside of a few work obligations, weekends through June are cooked.
As a dad, I’m still struggling at not turning every car ride home into a sports radio recap of the game. Do I want to ask what happened on that goal late against Bedford, where it looked like someone in the car could have made a better play than he did? I sure do. But there’s no benefit to that, at least that I’ve found. If they want to talk about it, they’ll talk about it. My goal is to get better at that again this spring. I’ll end up asking about a ground ball or a wild swing as early as this weekend. I’m trying, but I’m no expert there.
I am an expert at sitting through very long youth baseball games. And if you’re getting set for the spring sports season—baseball especially—I have one important piece of advice for you: you gotta splurge on the chair.
For a while, I resisted following the lead of other parents who had upgraded their chairs. I sat in an old Bud Light chair (classy, I know) I got from a radio promo probably 20 years ago, or I sat on the metal bleachers. And my back felt like shit. And I was getting sore from sitting like a moron.
Don’t do that, dad or mom. Upgrade the chair.
You want one that’s comfortable. You probably want one that rocks back and forth. You want one with some pockets. You want one that will hold your Diet Coke. You might even want one with a sun cover. Go for it
If you’re new to this, you’re going to be in that chair for hours this spring. There will be a game where Little Timmy is not going to be able to find the strike zone. And Little Tommy on the other team, him too. It happens. Or the umpire is going to have a strike zone the size of a walnut. All of this is made infinitely better with the chair upgrade.
Me? I’m a CGI Comfort Pro Rocker guy. Got it as a Father’s Day gift. Didn’t think much of it … Game. Changer.
Look at that bad boy. A 45-minute delay because the umpires haven’t shown up yet? They can’t find the key to unlock the field? No problem! Metal bleachers? Shitty chair? Forget it. Back barking and legs aching for days.
If you’ve been delaying the upgrade, go for it. If you’re a rookie sports parent and were planning on just using whatever you had in the garage, don’t do it. Get the good chair. And get one for your wife. And the grandparents. They’ll thank you. And good luck this spring.
Meanwhile, I have thoughts on Bill Parcells. The Red Sox had a terrific week. I’m here to help you win your Masters Golf Pools. And a jam-packed sports betting and sports media notebook.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
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On Bill Parcells going into the Patriots Hall of Fame…
The hair looks good.
On an excellent week for the Boston Red Sox…
Let’s start on the field because this thing could have gone sideways prettyyyyyyyy quickly.
After an Opening Day win in Texas, the Sox offense went limp in losing the final three games to the Rangers to open the season. They showed up in Baltimore for the first of three and promptly lost that one too, making it four straight losses with an off-day looming Tuesday.
You come out of that and lose two more before this much anticipated Opening Day at Fenway Friday and all of a sudden the team that finds themselves a favorite to win the American League is getting boo’d by their fans in the first player instructions of the season.
But that doesn’t happen. Garrett Crochet looks all the part of an ace, going eight shutout innings in a Red Sox win on Wednesday. Thursday, the Sox hit three home runs, including one each from FA pickup Alex Bregman and rookie phenom Kristian Campbell, in an 8-4 win.
Three players who were not here a year ago—Crochet, Bregman, and Campbell—helped the Sox win a series that they would not have won in 2024.
The weather on Friday is pretty good by New England's April standards, and the team should be greeted warmly in their first home game of the season. Even Rafael Devers, who has been a disaster to start the season, had three hits over these last two Sox wins and probably avoids and boo bird bonanza Friday afternoon.
What happened off the field this week was even more important than the rebound on it.
The team was able to come to contract extensions with Crochet and Campbell. The Crochet deal comes with risk, given the pitcher’s injury history, but it locks up a young Chris Sale at the top of the team’s rotation for the foreseeable future. The $170 million for Crochet is a record for any pitcher with just four years of service time, far surpassing the previous record $137 million the Mets gave to Jacob DeGrom. This is a significant investment, and since the word was Crochet was done negotiating after Opening Day, credit goes to Craig Breslow and the team for getting this thing done.
Campbell’s extension is another first - it’s the earliest in a career the Red Sox have ever locked up a player to a multiyear deal. And it looks like a steal, given the kid’s start. In five years, when he’s making under $10 million/season, this might be the best contract in baseball.
Sitting at the desk in my basement in Middlesex County, I sense some real buzz with the team heading into Opening Weekend at Fenway. With the Celtics playoff run looming and the NFL Draft just a few weeks away, a good stretch here from the Sox will be pretty important to keep fans tuned in.
Hell, maybe a hot start could coax the Owner In Hiding John Henry to address the assembled media for the first time in five years! You’re right, probably not. But a very good week for his Red Sox.
On some players to target for Masters betting and Masters Pools…
I have written about Brent Sumja before. Sumja is/was well-known in the industry as a horse player and tournament player. In August of 2023, he publically retired from horses, saying in part, “They (CAW players) have infiltrated every last pool and after 40+ years I am done feeling and being duped by sketchy practices. Going to concentrate on other sports I am excited about. They ruined horse racing.”
Based on the post above from this past weekend, betting on golf is one of the sports he’s concentrating on. And while I have not entirely given up on horse racing, like Sumja, I do spend a lot more time looking at golf bets—because there are some fundamental similarities in the mental math of betting on horses and betting the PGA Tour.
In both cases, past performance is key. You’re looking at both recent and long-term form. With racing, you’d look at the Daily Racing Form, Equibase Past Performances, etc. With golf, well, for some people, just seeing a golfer’s raw result (finishing position) might be enough to get a general idea of how “in form” that player is. There’s also a mountain of data that compares each golfer in almost every category imaginable.
In racing, some horses run their best at select race tracks. The same goes for golfers - I’m probably too invested each week in a player’s course history - but it’s a significant factor when I place my bets and build DFS lineups.
In racing, you’re betting against the other bettors. In betting golf, it’s you against the house. You have to decide each week or each race - are you trying to bet the favorite here or beat the favorite? The good news is, as Sumja points out above, when you bet Min Woo Lee at 38-1, you KNOW the price you’re getting is 38-1; it won’t be 25-1 after the tournament starts because the computer groups pounded him late.
Live betting also lets you track players' performance and make more bets after the tournament starts. If you’re paying attention, there is value to be found here.
Of course, there is much more interest in golf than in horse racing—it’s much more mainstream. And the markets are deeper - with many more betting options - and are much more fun to speculate in. So, let’s speculate.
This will probably be a one-time thing, but I have some betting thoughts for next week’s Masters. These are ideas for your bets and your Masters Pools.
There is no course on the PGA Tour where course history matters more than Augusta National. When you combine that with the reality that much of this field (the old guys and the amateurs) don’t really have a shot to win, there are chances to make some smart bets both before and during the best golf tournament of the year.
Top of Tickets (all odds listed at DraftKings)
Scottie Scheffler is a firm +350 favorite to win the 2025 Masters. He’s in great form coming in, ranking #1 in the world in Strokes Gained Approach and Tee-to-Green over his last 50 rounds. He’s gone 1st-10th-1st the previous three years here and excels at Augusta. He’s a deserving favorite, but I will not be betting him to win. Maybe if he gets out to a slow start there will be live betting opportunities, but I need much better odds on the win end. But he’s worth mentioning because if you’re playing in small Masters pools, he’s probably still worth taking. Bigger pools, if you want to get different, I get it. There’s also the “Winner Without Scottie” market that opened Thursday night on DraftKings, where you basically can bet a player to finish second to Scottie and still get paid when that happens.
Ludvig Åberg (16-1) probably wins most of the Masters he played last year - but he ran into ‘On another planet’ Scottie and finished second. On pure talent and ball striking, he’s among the most likely upsetters to Scheffler next weekend. His putting might be an issue - he’s lost strokes putting in three of his six events this year. On Thursday at the Valero, he was 94th in the field putting. The man nicknamed Golf Lundgren has so much talent that I can see him winning this and could bet at 14-1 or better. If you’re not taking Scottie in this pod of your pool, I’d back Åberg to get different because most people will probably go with Scottie or Rory. Note that he’s listed at 18-1 in the ‘Without Scottie’ market. He’s also 7-1 in the ‘Top European’ market. 👀
Players I’ll be betting somewhere on the ticket
Jordan Spieth is 25-1, and that feels a little short on the win end. But given his World Golf Ranking, he’ll probably be down the list in most pools, and I’ll be playing him. His average adjusted strokes gained at Augusta are behind just Åberg, Scottie, and Jon Rahm in the projected field. After losing strokes overall in four of his last six events to end 2024, he’s gained in strokes in four of six to start 2025. I’ll be watching closely this weekend as he plays Valero, but barring a crash out, he’s a Top 5/10 bet for me.
If I watched LIV Golf, another guy I’d be watching would be Joaquin Niemann (28-1). Instead, I’ll just be looking at his stats and results because those have been tremendous lately. He’s won three of his last six events on LIV and is ranked No. 6 overall for strokes gained in the world during that time. He’s finished 22nd, 16th, 35th, and 40th in the last four Masters. I bet him Top 20 when the market opened on Thursday night.
Tommy Fleetwood is 35-1. Heading into the Valero, he’s playing arguably the best golf of his career, based on his DataGolf player arch. He’s tough to back on the win end, but he’ll be in the mix somewhere. Top 20 three of the last five years here and comes in with the complete game honed in.
Big Prices
Shane Lowry (45-1) is #1 strokes gained approach over his last 36 rounds. With five Top 20s this season already, he has a little edge right now and can be involved late into Sunday.
Likely to be a little overbet, especially if he finishes strong this weekend, but Corey Connors (70-1) is in raging form and likes Augusta. Putter will probably be his undoing. I bet him Thursday at even money (+100) to be the top Canadien against Taylor Pendrith (never played here), Nick Taylor (bad here in six rounds), and 54-year-old lefty Mike Weir.
Michael Kim (130-1) has turned his game around and qualified for this by playing so well this year. Top 20 flier, even with some distance issues.
I’ll also mention Davis Riley, Sepp Straka, and Will Zalatoris as three guys I’ll have somewhere in pools or pizza money plays.
I will post some final Masters bets and my card on Wednesday night here on SubStack NOTES. If you’re subscribed or follow me here, you can access the site on your desktop or the SubStack app, which has become much more useable in the last few months.
On your sports media and sports betting notebook…
➡️ With the help of gambling industry insider Steve Ruddock, we wrote extensively last week about the terrible sports betting bill being pushed in Massachusetts. The author of that bill, Senator John Keenan, was a guest of The Greg Hill Show on WEEI this week.
Outside of host Greg Hill not knowing that the tax rate increase being proposed was not a tax on gambling winnings, but rather the rate at which the State of Massachusetts would tax the sports betting companies, the show did a good job of pointing out the common sense issues in the seantor’s ‘Bettor Health’ proposal.
When asked how the tax rate increase (from the current 20% to 51%) would be filtered back to the consumer, Keenan said it would be hard for the sportsbooks to do that because “the odds are the odds.” He’s 100% wrong.
That tax increase would directly impact sports bettors in the Bay State. Promotional bets would dry up almost instantly for all but the biggest bettors. In addition, the sportsbooks will likely offer users worse odds on different types of bets to make up for the difference with the tax increase. The net result would be pushing sports bettors back to their bookies and offshore betting accounts in the illegal markets.
A tax rate increase would also lead to job losses as these sportsbooks seek ways to compensate for the lost revenue.
Keenan was also grilled on one of my favorite topics, sports betting vs. the Massachusetts State Lottery. The Lottery is one of the biggest reasons it took so long for sports betting to be legalized in Massachusetts, as they spent money to lobby against it. When it was pointed out that he was not calling for regulation or protection against people buying an unlimited number of $50 scratch tickets or the Lottery’s advertising campaigns, he said aloud, “It’s there (the Lottery)…most people do it, and they’re okay…” completely minimizing and ignoring the addictive nature of scratch tickets offered by the State.
Keenan made good points about these VIP Programs that potentially target problem gamblers, and I hope we see those get eliminated. Sportsbooks that allow losing gamblers to keep firing away while limiting the winning ones are wholly one-sided and need to be addressed.
The WEEI hosts missed a key point by not getting to his proposed ban on live betting and prop betting, which is archaic and would push people to bet in other states or the illegal markets. But overall, they did a good job of exposing him as grandstanding on the hot-button issue of sports betting.
➡️ Meanwhile, further north in The Granite State, The New Hampshire Lottery celebrated five years of sports betting with DraftKings on Thursday night. Now-retired Bruins star Patrice Bergeron was the guest of honor and took part in a fun event at The Nash Casino, hosted by your humble newsletter author. Before the public event, Bergeron shined as he competed with five lucky NH student-athletes in a mini skills competition at Conway Arena in Nashua. The event awarded $1000 each to the respective students’ schools, as the NH Lottery continues to use their sports betting revenue to directly fund education in the state. Beregron was awesome with the kids and took dozens of photographs with the star-struck players and their families. I asked him about potentially coming out of retirement since he’s still not 40 years old and appears in playing shape. “I would say that the odds of me coming back to play are slim and none.” He did not close the door on returning to work with the Bruins at some point, but he seems to be enjoying retirement. Fun event.
➡️ The hardest working guy I worked with in radio was Kirk Minihane. He’d come back from vacation early if a big story hit. Outside of his morning show, he’d work on other projects (Kevin Cullen, Ron Borges). He’d watch and read everything. I worked with plenty of guys who did their show, went home, and were done until their next show.
From the outside looking in, 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Michael Felger is the hardest worker in the current Boston Media landscape. Yes, he got sensitive last week when he was called out about his vacation time. That's a fair point. But most of the time he’s doing 20 hours of radio a week plus about 4-5 hours of TV.
This week, credit to Felger for going to Florida for the NFL Owners’ meetings and getting exclusive one-on-one interviews with Mike Vrabel and Eliot Wolf. Felger has family nearby, so it worked out, but he had exclusives for him and his show with two of the biggest names of the NFL offseason. And they got some major traction out of it.
➡️ Tip of the hat to friend Alex Reimer for this one. Tony Massarotti ripping Kristian Campbell after just four career at-bats was one of the dumbest points ever made on sports radio, but it’s memorable. It was so memorable that MLB.com trolled Massarotti and, in the process, gave him priceless marketing and buzz on social media.
➡️ Feels like there’s gotta be more to this Felger/Jonathan Kraft altercation that happened in Florida, even if Felger tries to downplay it (watch here). If you know anything, be a friend and message me here or DM me on X.com.
And with that, we have for sure said it all.
Back tomorrow to handicap the final big weekend of Derby Preps - a weekend that will extend out to Tuesday, thanks to Keeneland moving their days because of the weather.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend, especially Houston plus the points against Duke. And thanks for reading—and watching.
Good weekend.
Hair is looking much better Mutt, good move
Don't forget to update us on Wed with your Masters picks. Us loyal readers need to eat too!