Friday Four-Pack 5.1.26
WEEI's newest afternoon show is bad. Mike Vrabel gets a big welcome. Lovely Grey runs tonight in the Oaks. Weekly notes and more!
Note from Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy:
We’ll let Dave’s video serve as his note this morning.
Surreal morning. Surreal week.
I’m somehow here in Louisville, KY, to watch My Boss Dave’s horse, Lovely Grey, compete in the Grade One Kentucky Oaks.
I have said for weeks that she has a big shot if she gets in.
Confirmed closer in a race with plenty of speed.
Bred to love the distance (416 Tomlinson)
Multiple siblings who have won on dirt - breeding is there
Trained very well here at Churchill Downs. DRF Clockers gave her a solid ‘B’ for her last work.
Jockey Dylan Davis aboard - the Mutnansky Family loves Dylan.
Lots of things to like at 30-1. The problem is, she won’t be 30-1. I think she’s going to be like 12-1 because the world wants to bet with Dave in one of the biggest races of the year. He and she are the stars of this race. That’s the only knock -her price. I would not be TOTALLY shocked if she’s under 10-1.
She is 100% live today. I think her #2 Zany and #9 Always a Runner are all going to be flying late. And with Dylan Davis aboard, let's get Lovely Grey home.
I’d be rooting like hell for Dave’s horse if I were still just cranking out MutStack in my basement full-time. The man loves racing and the animals. He’s been so good for racing, and I am genuinely happy to see him with a good horse and a blossoming Go Go Greys Stable. He’ll yell at me for a shitty pick in a race later today, but that’s okay.
I’m sitting here laughing at how lucky I am to be here. Don’t deserve it, but thankful. Thank you, Dave. #thankyoukirk
Owners dream of having an Oaks horse for years, only to never get it. Dave and Go Go Greys made it in and are live to make some noise.
Have plenty of handicapping to do for the next two days. Good luck if you’re playing, and safe trips for all. And go, Lovely Grey!
Meanwhile, WEEI has debuted a FOURTH new afternoon show in just the last three years. Mike Vrabel gets a warm welcome. My Kentucky Derby thoughts and a LOADED MutStack Notes.
It’s all ahead in Friday Four-Pack #170.
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On the debut of WEEI’s Rich and Ken with Ted Johnson…
I want to give WEEI’s newest afternoon show some credit in a second. But first-
It’s worse than WEEI Afternoons
It’s worse than Salk & Holley
It’s worse than Mut & Callahan…maybe.
If you told me Rich and Ken with Ted Johnson was a parody of a radio show, I’d believe you.
“It was uncomfortable to listen to,” one former very successful Boston radio host told me this week. And he’s right.
Rich and Ken with Ted Johnson is supposed to be a new show, but it’s really just a different version of Rich’s failed show at WZLX. Same stories, same deferring to Ted Johnson, same EVERYTHING. They replaced Mike Hurley with a neutered Ken Laird. Rich is hosting - he’s soooooo bad at that. Ted is not smart. And Ken is… just the update guy who held on to his Operations job at Audacy so he could fake-laugh at Rich and Ted? They admitted it would be bad, and they’re right.
So look, there’s a way this might work, but it would require honesty. First and foremost, honesty from Rich. I tuned in thinking I might get it on Monday afternoon. After all, he failed historically at WZLX and was doing nothing before Mike Thomas fired a bunch of people to pay him; what I got instead was pure bullshit, with Rich pretending to be some sort of WEEI listener:
“Mike (Thomas) and Mark Hannon are doing something special over here…”
WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT? The only thing special at WEEI is Thomas’ ability to make the ratings disappear. Hannon has a working brain and must have wanted to vomit when Rich said that. It was a whole segment of shit like that, with the main character, Rich, re-telling some story of his career from his own warped mind into the microphone. It just made me angry. As did Thomas, taking a victory lap for hiring him as a savior.
WEEI is failing. Rich failed at WZLX. Tell the audience you’ve failed and you’ll try to do better. Both you and the station. Nope, none of that.
As you might expect, the industry texts I got this week have not been kind. Words like unaware, horrible…just got one that said “Wow.” The social media reaction has been similar; just check the replies here. Brutal. But the lack of ANY real reaction tells you all you need to know. Rich apparently said something about all the nice media they got after their debut - I looked, there was none, other than a press release reformatting or two. ZERO.
Rich alluded to going after his former co-host, Fred Toucher, when the show was introduced Monday morning, but no shot that happens. I’m rooting for it, so Fred fires back; he’ll probably do that anyway. That will be entertaining. The new show isn’t.
Here’s where I’ll give them some credit - it is different than Felger and Mazz. In all the worst ways, but it’s different. Felger and Mazz sound like a classic, angry, smarmy, smart, Boston sports radio show. Rich and Ken with Ted Johnson sounds like a morning show in Albany that was born out of a bad radio petry dish. I’ve used the word bad here four times. I apologize.
I don’t think the show will make it to next year’s NFL Draft. At least in its current configuration. I can’t imagine it doing better than the old show in the ratings.
I heard my friend Kirk Minihane give me “half credit” for breaking this story here. That’s fair - I did not put my nuts on the table and report it as a Dave Cullinane LOCK. But we had it basically cold, before anyone else, even if no one wanted to give us credit. Good week for The Stack. A note on the parts we got wrong below.
It was a nice break having the Sox on Wednesday, so I didn’t have to listen. I’ll only be able to catch clips in Kentucky on Thursday and Friday. Thank God. Painful stuff. A deeper dive into the Mike Thomas moves at WEEI here in the next month.
If you listened, I would love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
On a VERY warm welcome for Mike Vrabel…
So there was a Club Seat (fancy Red seats at Gillette with a great bar) ticket-holder event for the Pats on Tuesday night, and Mike Vrabel got this very warm welcome.
How about Zo pumping up the crowd? He might be angling for my emcee gigs!
This had to feel pretty good for Vrabel. He’s had a shitty few weeks, his own doing, of course.
As did this. His young, star signal-caller here is saying all the right things at a charity event.
I thought Jermaine Wiggins made a good point this week on WEEI, saying that the players in the locker room only really care how Vrabel treats them. How his message has to change now this is on his resume, I don’t know. But I’m probably guilty of overrating how much this might impact the Patriots. It helps that QB1 was front and center, with his back on Wednesday night.
As for the fans? I mean, come on. Fans were ALWAYS going to have his back. The few callers you hear blasting Vrabel on sports talk or social media are a loud, small group. They were destined to get drowned out.
This is 100% a story and worth talking about, but the reaction at Gillette is a sign that Vrabel will get through this. There’s still the eventual Diana Russini return - how is she going to handle this???
But the fans? They’re back on his side. And probably never left.
On the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby…
Racing is such a tough game.
Fulleffort was not just my big rooting interest, but he was also my favorite bet of the Kentucky Derby. He ran well in his preps at Turfway. He looked great at Churchill Downs. He was bred to like the dirt. He has a talented trainer. He has terrific connections. And he was going to be a great price. I hope he’s okay and we get to see him run again.
To say my excitement for Debry 152 has been dampened would be fair. But the Derby is still the Derby, and people want to know who I like.
I like #6 Commandment. Trainer Brad Cox. Jockey Luis Saez
First of two in here for Super Trainer™️Brad Cox, and he is a legit contender today. Only horse in the field with two 100+ Beyers. Beat Chief Wallabee in back-to-back starts - the race two back, he kept galloping out like he wanted more ground. Got his first career win over this track. Third different jockey in last three races is a little weird for a horse that might be favored, but Saez and Cox have had plenty of success. Dam was very good. Can make his own trip from the six-hole.
I liked Fulleffort. A lot. He’s out.
I like #14 Potente at 20-1 as my best price idea now. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey JJ Hernandez
Again, a horse with just three career races. Trainer Bob Baffert said he’d be better going longer, and he was right. Fought hard on the lead before getting run down by So Happy last time. I think he’s better with a target and with Baffet’s other horse as quick early, is the plan to rate this guy? I would not hate it. He cost $2.4 million, so big expectations. Can see him hitting the board at a nice price. Note the workout here 4/26 when you look at the past performances - it was a good one. USING AT A HUGE PRICE
I like #12 Chief Wallabee. Trainer Bill Mott. Jockey Junior Alvarado
Tons of talent here. If you told me that by the end of the year, he’s the best of this group, I’d believe you. Beat The Puma on debut and then just missed vs Commandment in those two Florida races. But that’s the knock, right? Only three races coming into this. His local workout in Kentucky was the talk of the town, and he has MAJOR buzz coming in. Riley Mott’s Dad won this last year and has won it twice in his Hall of Fame career. Blinkers go ON here, which is interesting, given how well he’s run. Legit Derby contender, but I wonder if the three races (and none as a 2-year-old) is too big a hurdle vs this group. But oozes talent.
#1 Renegade, #15 Emerging Market, and #18 Further Ado can also win. #9 The Puma can probably win, too, but I don’t think I’ll be betting he’s Mage 2.0.
6-14-12-1 for me in Kentucky Derby 152. I have the most faith in Commandment based on his efforts in Florida, and 7-1 or so is very fair.
The plan is to live-stream pre-races tomorrow on X.com. Picks for the day are to follow there, too.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ Vibes were so, so down on Thursday for Episode 28 - Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Red Sox still stink. Not much home. Watch and subscribe to a grown man get upset about baseball. Then listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
🏀 So yeah, the Celtics. Did not get to watch much of the game on Thursday. I did laugh at Hubbs on Picks Central a few weeks ago when talking about the Celtics’ path to the NBA Finals. I am not laughing anymore.
The 29% from three tells the story. They’re back in the place where they settle for threes, and if they hit them, they look good. If they don’t, they look like an 8-seed that doesn’t belong. I’d bank on a home win Saturday night, but the crowd was TERRIBLE for Game 5.
The Sixers are not that good, but the Celtics have let them back in this series. A loss this weekend doesn’t just mean a failed season; it means an offseason of talking about massive changes to the team. Tatum vs. Brown for months.
🏀 UConn vs. Duke. Night before Thanksgiving. Las Vegas. Do you think my wife and kids will like Turkey Day in Vegas?
⛳ So, that’s probably it for LIV, huh. As a golf fan and avid golf bettor, I just never gave a shit. Some good players over there, but the format did nothing for me. In the end, I’m not really sure who it was for.
🎙️ Mike Felger did a podcast with Awful Announcing that’s worth a listen. On a slower week, I might have done a full breakdown. Interesting stuff on WEEI vs The Hub. Felger said he roots for WEEI “to a point,” so that there’s a competitive sports-radio ecosystem. He also called out the Boston media for their lack of coverage of Vrabel. He should talk more about these non-sports topics on his own show
🎙️RE: WEEI. Mike Lockhart did not come with Rich - they have his spot for a longtime part-timer, “Jackson.” So they basically fired three guys to hire Rich. Is Ted full-time now? I actually don’t know. Also, I got bad info on Arcand moving. He stays on nights and Sox. But other than that, ice cold.
That feels like enough Stack for this week. Headed to the track in a little bit. Wild times.
Oaks! Derby! Lovely Grey!
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Thanks for reading.
I am not into horse racing as much as you are but am putting my faith in your intuition and going all in on Lovely Grey tonight. I might lose everything I own, but I'll still have The Stack.