Friday Four-Pack 5.17.24

Scottie Scheffler arrested! New details on The Rich Shertenlieb Show. Big sports betting story in Massachusetts. Preakness!

Holy shit.

The Friday Four-Pack is not normally your home for breaking news but we’ll make an exception when the world’s No. 1 golfer gets arrested and charged with, among other things, 2nd-degree assault of a police officer. All just hours before his scheduled tee time for round two of the PGA Championship.

The original open for today’s Four-Pack was actually going to be about Scottie Scheffler and the reality that I might be a Scheffler Fan Boy. I’m rooting for him in every major he plays in. Even betting against him, I find myself rooting for him because it feels like you’re rooting for all-time greatness.

That all seems moot after he was arrested Friday morning as part of a traffic incident outside the gates of Valhalla.

An easy Top 5 Twitter/X.com moment. Memes for days. Almost makes me miss doing live radio. What a gift.

Stock Up: 📈 ESPN’s Jeff Darlington, who just happened to be there when Scheffler was taken away in handcuffs. Wild video and coverage. Huge stock up for X.com, too. Could not close the app for two hours.

Stock Down: 📉 Golf Channel. My dad is older. He relies on Golf Channel for his golf news. HE HAD NO CLUE THIS WAS HAPPENING BECAUSE GOLF CHANNEL HAD NO COVERAGE! How is that possible???

After being arrested, booked, and released, Scheffler headed back to Valhalla Golf Club to play round two. Surreal.

Safe to say Scottie will never drive himself to the golf course again. If he’s looking for a driver/handicapper/emcee/newsletter entrepreneur, I am available

Even after all of this, he’s listed as the +450 second choice to win this weekend on DraftKings.

Just a wild scene.

Meanwhile, we have more news on a new radio show in Boston. It’s Preakness Weekend. And so so so so so so so so so much more.

All part of today’s Four-Pack.

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On Monday’s launch of The Rich Shertenlieb Show…

The above post came early Thursday on X.com

This one came Wednesday afternoon.

So if you’re a MutStack subscriber and probably follow on X.com, you already knew the big Boston radio news before it was announced. That’s what we do. Occasionaly.

Seriously, subscribe. It’s free. If it sucks, unsubscribe. But also it won’t suck. Also, again, free.

The Rich Shertenlieb Show launches Monday on Classic Rock 100.7 WZLX in Boston.

As most people know, Rich was half of the No. 1 morning show Toucher and Rich on 98.5 The Sports Hub. He walked away from that show last year, reportedly over both money and personal issues with his co-host Fred Toucher. Toucher is now half of Toucher and Hardy, which remains No. 1 in Boston among men 25-54. More on Fred below.

Rich returns to Boston Radio on Monday. And there are still lots of questions.

What we know:

• Michael Hurley will be the show’s everyday co-host with Rich. I don’t know why he’s lumped in with the other names in the announcement, but I’m confident that’s the case. It’s worded poorly in Rich’s post - Hurley will be an everyday co-host. Hurley left WBZ Boston just last week and has done frequent guest spots on 98.5 The Sports Hub.

• The other names listed - Ted Johnson, Mike Giardi, and Charlotte Wilder - will be rotating “third chairs” on the show.

• Some potential “third chair” hosts were approached and passed on the opportunity. Two names I feel confident are on that list are former Patriot Rob Ninkovich and WBZ TV sports anchor Dan Roche.

• There will be other “third chair” co-hosts.

• Rich has already teased old bits from Toucher and Rich making a return to the new show.

What we don’t know:

• How much music will be played on the show? Will it trend to be more of a talk show, since you’re looking at three voices every day?

• Given how ‘sporty’ this new show sounds, is this the sign that WZLX parent company iHeart Radio might try and acquire the radio rights to the Celtics, Bruins, or Red Sox? The Celtics and Bruins - both heard on 98.5 The Sports Hub - those deals are up in a few years. There is a chance the Red Sox rights could be available as soon as next season, with WEEI parent company Audacy coming out of bankruptcy and in millions of dollars of debt.

• One radio insider agreed with the above and also wondered if this might be a test of sorts and iHeart eventually takes WZLX all-sports.

• Will Rich address his breakup with Fred and the numerous shots his former co-host has taken at him over the last six months?

What we think:

• The characters…I like Michael Hurley. He’s self-deprecating. Sarcastic. A good writer. In on the joke. Deflategate expert. I have never been a Rich fan, personally. Ted Johnson is trying way too hard to be anti-Patriot. It comes off as forced. Giardi is good on football and still has strong sources in the NFL.
  
  Charlotte Wilder. Charlotte Wilder wrote one of the most ridiculous stories of the last 10 years in Boston, “The Patriots Have a Trump Problem.” It includes one of my favorite passages in the history of the written word. From the 2017 story:

I was at a neighborhood holiday party in Lincoln a few days before Christmas, talking to the parents of several friends I grew up with. They asked about my job, so the conversation turned to sports. And then, naturally, to the Patriots. And then, naturally, to Trump.

“Oh, Susan Pease won’t even watch anymore,” one of my friend’s moms said. “She used to watch every Sunday with her family, and now she just can’t do it.”

Is Susan Pease a fan again now that Joe Biden is President? I promise to listen to every word if Susan Pease comes on their show during election season. In fact, let’s make her a co-host, Rich. Susan, if you’re reading this, we need an update from Lincoln. Message me. Please.

• But I don’t think that story or the election will come up. This feels like a very safe, happy morning show.

• Rich’s former co-host Fred Toucher will not be able to help himself and will comment on the new show. Full credit to BostonRadioWatch on X.com for posting multiple clips of Fred recently taking shots at Rich. Like this one. Or this one, where Fred suggests Rich tried to get him fired. Or this one, where Fred mocks the new show before it airs.

• There is some real, real hate there. Fred will react to Rich. I don’t know if Rich will volley back: he seems to really care what people think of him and I could see him “taking the high road.” Booooooo.

• Can see the show having a bigger impact on the ratings of Toucher and Hardy vs. The Greg Hill Show. BUT…now that we have seen the lineup, I’m wavering on the claim this will be a Top 5 show Men25-54. I’m just not sure who this show is for.

• I think any comparison of this lineup to Glenn Ordway’s “Big Show,” even in passing, qualifies as asinine.

A lot more to react to once we all get to hear the show on Monday.

Will you be listening? Will the show be good? Comments open below for all your Boston sports radio takez.

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On Saturday’s Preakness Stakes…

I was already finding the second jewel of the Triple Crown a tricky race to handicap when the news came Wednesday that morning line favorite Muth (8/5) was out of the race. It sounds like he got sick traveling to Baltimore but ultimately will be okay.

It’s the second straight Preakness where there has been a significant change late in the process after 2023 saw First Mission scratched before the race.

This scratch is more impactful and changes things, especially when it comes to getting decent odds on any contender.

Here’s a look at the field for Preakness 149 with updated morning-line odds from David Aragona and DRF.com

2024 Preakness Stakes
1 3/16 MILES
NBC coverage starts 430 PM EST
7:01 PM Post

1. Mugatu (20-1) 
Was 181-1 last time out in the BlueGrass - one of his three career dirt starts. All three have been slow and he's never hit the board. The trainer says he's training "as well as he ever has," and good for them to take a shot. I guess he'll try and make one run but an easy pass on top for me. 

2. Unce Heavy (15-1) 
Was stuck outside last time at Aqueduct. Then he broke slowly. Then wide the entire race. Then some traffic late. I don't know if he's good enough, but he's better than his last race and gets Irad Ortiz today. Price player for a dangerous trainer. 

3. Catching Freedom (7/2) 
Made his run in the Derby - like he always does - but just could not get there. Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox said this type of turn-around is not something he usually does, but the numbers say he wins when he does it. He's 13 for 38 (34%) the last five years 13-15 day layoffs returning on the dirt. He wheeled back Tawny Port in the Lexington in 2022, won that race off a two-week break, and made the Derby. Has flashed real talent and is a win contender.

4. Muth (6/5) 
Four wins from six starts and the two losses, well, you can kinda excuse. Got bumped last summer at Del Mar and ended up in a duel before fading late. His other loss came in the BC Juvenile, running 2nd to Fierceness. He’s fast, comes in fresh, and is trained by a man who just won this race last year. In fact, Bob Baffert has won this race eight times. Legit favorite and obvious win contender at a very short price. 

5. Mystik Dan (9/5) 
The Debry winner got the greatest trip and ride of any Derby horse in my lifetime (Practical Joke/Rosario 2014 right up there, too) two weeks ago at 18-1. I didn't like him that day and I'm not rushing to the windows to bet him today at 9/5. Over the last five years, McPeek 2 for 17 (12%) coming back in two weeks, on the dirt, in a stakes race. Meets a good bunch in here, led by Muth, who dusted him in the Arkansas Derby. Is there a chance he will try to show more speed with Muth out?

6. Sieze the Grey (12-1) 
We got paid when he finally cut back in the Pat Day Mile. Now two weeks later he stretches back out and has a stablemate to his outside who has a similar running style. Has more than 2000 “co-owners” who bought in through MyRaceHorse.com. Congrats to them. I’m happy to bet him again when he cuts back, but not today. 

7. Just Steel (10-1) 
Was part of a Derby pace that eventually collapsed. Got banged around pretty good early in that one, too. Unlike Sieze the Grey, this one has actually run fast going longer. That makes him a much better fit for this race than the other Lukas. But I usually get the now 88-year-old Lukas wrong so 🙄🙄🙄. He’s a threat to be part of a more sensible pace this time and hold third or fourth late. 

8. Tuscan Gold (4-1) 
I thought that effort in the LA Derby was pretty good. Parked wide the entire race, he looked like he was about to get swallowed up at the top of the stretch. Instead, he found another gear and battled home for third getting beat by the two deep closers. Trainer Chad Brown has won this race twice and I’d consider this one a chance to make it three. He is the buzz horse with Muth scratched and will be nowhere near 8-1. Contender.

9. Imagination (7/2) 
7/2 on the new ML and should be about even money to have the lead going into the first turn. Has to try to lead this group gate to wire - something Bob Baffert has done multiple times in the Preakness. Jockey Detorri had a ROUGH Derby Day. I wanted to bet against a National Treasure-like wire job for this Baffert, but that is more in play with Muth out.

We’re left with a field of eight. And based on the updated odds, I really don’t want to bet any of them.

Win Contenders: Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold, Catching Freedom, Imagination, Uncle Heavy.

Yep, I think five of the eight can win. Means it’s a competitive group. Or I have no strong opinion. Or both.

Weather: We are looking at rain all day Saturday in Baltimore and are likely to have both a wet main track and turf course.

The Selection: From the win contenders, I’ll eliminate Mystik Dan based on his price and the reality of the perfect trips in the Southwest and the Derby. He will like a wet track, he can win, but I can’t take him. Asking Uncle Heavy to jump 15 Beyer points is probably asking too much. He will also like a wet track.

I really wanted to bet Tuscan Gold, who should also be fine with the rain, but as the potential second choice? Eh. I’m hoping DRF had a clocker on him for his two Belmont works. He was beaten pretty well in his last works at Payson by Domestic Product, who did nothing in the Derby.

Imagination can wire this group, but I would not bet on it at 7/2 or 4-1. I lost all confidence in Detorri with some of his decisions on Derby Day. Can also see one if not BOTH Lukas horses contesting the pace now. And Mystik Dan will probably be closer. Maybe we get a sneaky pace.

Which I’ll need, because I’m backing Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox and Catching Freedom. They could have held out and pointed for the Belmont at Saratoga with this son of Constitution, but Cox wheels him back in two weeks. From DRF’s Dave Grening, at Pimlico Thursday AM - “After watching Catching Freedom gallop just now I can see why connections willing to run back in two weeks.” Already has a win at this distance. Had 42 days off into the Derby and might have actually needed that race. He’ll need some pace to run into, but at 3-1 or better, he’s the top pick.

How We’ll Bet the Race: We still have a day to work through how we’ll bet the race. That will be posted in tomorrow’s Preakness Final Thoughts. Meanwhile, we have a Preakness Podcast to keep you busy until then.

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On next week’s important MGC sports betting roundtable…

Hand up: I have been very critical of the Massachusetts Gaming Commission (MGC). From their handling of Barstool Sports “Can’t Lose Parlay” to the lack of college player props available in the market (as in, none), they have been frustrating to watch over the last year.

But I’ll give them credit when they do something good for the Bay State sports bettor. And they might be trying to do just that.

First, some background.

When you win a lot at a commercial sportsbook (DraftKings, Fan Duel, etc.), you are eventually going to get limited. Not off one great score, but when you win over and over and over, they take notice. And you get ‘limited.’

As in, you go to place a $100 bet, but the app tells you you can only bet $34, as an example. This happens.

One of the more entertaining X.com sports bettors - John Hyslop - has posted many times about being limited.

I am a losing sports bettor so I don’t have to worry about it. And no offense, you probably don’t either. Limited players have to switch books, disguise bets, and even buy ‘clean’ accounts to get down their action. A lot of professional players deal with these same issues.

Professional, recreational, whatever - the point remains that sportsbooks are limiting winning/sharp players but letting losing players bet all they want. And the MGC wants to ask why. Because from 30,000 feet, this deal does not seem very fair to the consumer.

Bill Speros covers sports betting for Bookies.com and also writes about Boston sports for the Boston Herald. He was nice enough to answer a few questions about how we got to the point where Massachusetts!?! is the focus of the sports betting industry starting with next Tuesday’s public hearing on limiting.

How did we get here where the MGC is taking on this issue? 

Bill: The MGC said it was because of "public comments." The MGC says its core is consumer protection. So when the MCG starts to deal with this Tuesday, it will be through the lens of the public/bettor. With the counterbalance of how this might negatively impact operators. But the first part of that equation carries the most weight.

Who is expected to speak? Are the operators going to be there to explain themselves and their guidelines for limiting players?

Bill: In Tuesday’s hearing, the stakeholders will almost certainly be there. I am also 99.99% certain Commissioners will ask some form of the question: "If you don't limit bettors who lose, why do you limit the ones who win?" The operators will likely say these limits are sporadic but necessary to maintain their business model. These are "public" discussions and noticed by law, so anyone in the public can speak. The MGC is usually excellent when it comes to public notice and access. Check its website for details. 

Is it realistic to think these meetings become a nationwide talking point for limiting?

Bill: Yes. Massachusetts is considered a leader along with Ohio and New York when it comes to these consumer protection matters and other limitations. Massachusetts banned college props when the Sports Wagering Act was passed in 2022. Only one other state had done that at the time. (Colorado)

What do you think the most likely outcome of these meetings will be?

Bill: Here, the MGC is likely to have a public roundtable. A fact-finding session, if you will. Then, if it decides a change is warranted, the MGC will draft a revised rule and have a formal public hearing on it. Once that is done, the changes would be put to a vote. All it takes is a simple majority. But right now there are 4 Commissioners. Ties lose. 

On the substance ... I believe the operators have a high bar to clear here to maintain the status quo. At the very least, the Commissioners would want operators to explain to customers why this is done and create an avenue for recourse. And/or create rules and standards.

Appreciate Bill taking some time away from being reposted by Adam Schefter and going viral on NFL Twitter to work through this.

I love the idea of the sportsbooks having to explain their practice of limiting winning players but not losing ones. And they’ll have to do it in a public forum.

You should be able to watch along this Tuesday, May 21, via YouTube.

It sounds like the sports betting world will be tuned in. I will be, for sure.

On your Friday MutStack Notes…

• It’s a little late for the PGA Championship, but if you bet on golf or play golf DFS, you should be subscribed to Topher Smith’s FREE Substack.
  

No bells and whistles: just data and sarcasm. It has pointed me to good golf bets and DraftKings plays for the last year.

I was worried about losing the edge in my weekly Golf DFS league by posting this, but those guys don’t read the newsletter. But you do. So take advantage.

• I have digested the schedule and am here to tell you the Patriots will go 5-12 this year. Book it.

• I’m excited for race and sports fans who get their first look at The Brook’s new screen this week for The Preakness and PGA Championship. It’s awesome. Trust me.

• The Patriots and Carolina Panthers are the only two teams who are underdogs in all 17 games this year.

• Yes, there are lines posted for every NFL game already.

• Tough closeout to the Cavs series for the Jayson Tatum haters, of which there are many.

Let’s pull up here - I have to go watch Scottie tee off at the PGA Championship. We REALLY have said it all, anyway.

Full Preakness post on Saturday with updated thoughts, picks, and much more.

Thanks for reading.

Good weekend.