Friday Four-Pack 5.4.24

Gorman, Edwards sign off. Celtics path to the Finals. Deep dive on the Kentucky Oaks. Notes!

May 03, 2024

I am an elite Pop-A-Shot player.

There are not many things I am actually elite at, but that’s on the list.

My best two skills in life might be Pop-A-Shot and my pancake-making skills. Maybe the ability to change the channel during a game and switch back exactly as they’re coming back from a commercial, missing no action. I’m elite at that. But that’s the list.

I’m also very, very pro-sports betting. For wayyyyyyy too long, sports betting was considered a dark corner of society. Sports betting = bad. Hedge fund managers and day traders just firing away on stocks with other people’s money = good. That never made sense.

So you’d think a headline like Dave & Buster’s to allow customers to bet on arcade games would be right up my alley.

No thanks. For a couple of reasons.

#1 - If I want to bet my brother in a game of Pop-A-Shot, we’ll do it directly. He’ll pay me cash or Venmo me, and we’ll move on. No vig.

#2 - Yeah, why should I give Dave and Buster’s a % of my bet when I’m already paying them a premium for food, drinks, and games?

#3 - Why would I want to challenge a stranger to a game of skee ball for $5 or $10 (they’ll be a limit on the bets, according to the press release)? Are people asking for this? I beat some random five times in a row, now he’s pissed, and now he’s staring me down from a few tables away as I try and enjoy my buffalo chicken wrap and bottomless Diet Cokes.

Who needs that?

I get why Dave and Buster’s would want to try this - sports betting is already a $6 billion industry and they’d like to capture some of that. By getting a small % of every bet - in addition to the hope customers would stay longer and “bet” more, it’s a chance for extra revenue.

The problem? There is no real benefit to the customer! You can bet on Hot Hoops without the app and avoid D&B’s rake. Why would I want to sign up?

Meanwhile, states are already wary of the restaurant chain’s plan. The chairman of the Lousiana Gaming Control Board is pushing back even before D&B’s roll out their games.

"I feel that this would be an illegal gambling operation under the current statutes and rules of gaming law in our state. I will be happy to have a conversation with Dave & Buster’s should they choose to petition our Board"

In Illinois, there’s already a bill being introduced to stop this from happening.

D&B’s will probably end up scrapping the idea and that’s the right move.

People have been betting with each other on the golf course for 100 years…without an app or the course taking a percentage. If the people really need action at Dave and Buster’s, they’ll find it without an app where they’re paying to bet on Pop-A-Shot.

Meanwhile, yes it’s Kentucky Derby Weekend, but we have a terrific Kentucky Oaks on Friday. Full preview below. We’ll start this week’s Four-Pack with the Celtics and their path to an NBA Championship.

On the Celtics NBA Title hopes…

It is easy to be critical of the Celtics. And they have earned that criticism.

They’re an uber-talented team that suffered a massive upset last year in the Eastern Conference Finals and has struggled with closing teams out in the playoffs.

It’s fair to wonder if they will ever live up to the hype. For them, that’s winning an NBA Championship. Fair or not, that’s the bar*.

So let me say I was encouraged by their “NO MERCY” destruction of the Miami Heat in Game 5. It’s the type of game the Celtics might have lost to an undermanned team over the last couple of years. Not Wednesday night. From the middle of the first quarter on it was clear Mike Gorman would have a stress-free final quarter of his legendary broadcasting career.

How about this stat: the Celtics are now just 13-13 at home in the playoffs over the last three seasons? That’s BRUTAL … and speaks to a team that has struggled closing teams out.

So while I hate to make a big deal out of one game, Wednesday night was encouraging.

As for the Porzingis injury, let’s say they catch Oklahoma City or Minnesota in the NBA Finals…I think they can still win even without him. They’re that good. Brad Stevens deserved every top vote for NBA Executive of the Year.

As for the Eastern Conference, Boston is a huge -235 favorite to take it as of Friday morning. The Sixers and Bucks are out. Yes, a Celtics/Knicks ECF would be great, but there would be ZERO excuse not to come out of the East. Porzingis or no Porzingis.

About that* above…

I’d be willing to give the Celtics a pass if they lose to the Nuggets in the Finals and Porzingis is unable to go. Many fans won't, I get it. Assuming Denver is at full health, I will. They’re awesome. Jokic is awesome. Their offense is elite elite. They’d be favored over Boston without Porzingis. But it’s the Nuggets only as far as getting a pass.

You should be rooting for the Magic to come back and beat the Cavs. For one, you don’t have to face Donovan Mitchell. Second, the Magic both made and shot the fewest three-pointers in the NBA this season. You have no chance of beating the Celtics that way. So yeah, go Magic.

On the exits of Mike Gorman and Jack Edwards…

I mentioned Mike Gorman’s last game.

After a 43-year career behind the mic, Gorman called his last game in the Celtics’ demolition of the Heat.

I’ll join the chorus of fans wishing Mike a great retirement and thank him for being the soundtrack to many nights watching the team with my dad and younger brother. We were very lucky to get Mike and Tommy for so many years.

He is going to be greatly missed.

Based on the small sample size this year, I am not particularly looking forward to Drew Carter taking over Mike’s mic next season. I’m actually dreading it. Seems like a nice guy but…there will be a lot of yelling. So much yelling. And nicknames. And catchphrases.

Which I guess the the kids like? I’m an old, so I’m not a fan. And the more I’ve thought about it, the crazier it is that longtime radio voice Sean Grande didn’t get the job. If you polled Celtics fans, Grande or Carter, I think Grande would win by a wide margin.

Gorman had not traveled as much over the last few seasons and by all indications, this was 100% his call.

Not the same in the Bruins TV booth with Jack Edwards.

Edwards had his own goodbye Thursday night as the Bruins lost to Toronto. ABC will have Game 7 between the two teams on Saturday, so the Game 6 loss was his final game in the booth after 19 years of calling Bruins action.

Edwards announced last month he would retire at the end of the season, which for NESN came Thursday.

Unlike Gorman, retirement for Edwards was not all his call.

“I grew up a Bruins fan, and who had more fun than us over the last two decades?” said Edwards in a statement. “In collaboration with Bruins and NESN leadership, I recently decided that the time has come for me to finish my shift as the voice of the Boston Bruins. I am no longer able to attain the standards I set for myself, to honor the fans, the players, the Bruins organization and NESN with the best they all deserve.

For two years, Edwards has been working with doctors to try and diagnose why his speech has slowed down so drastically, to the point where it’s noticeable over not just stretches of a Bruins game, but the entire thing.

He told WMUR “About two years ago, I started to experience a slowing down of my speech, and I am working with a team of neurologists at Mass General, and they can't find anything wrong with me.”

Edwards and NESN had no other choice here. Considering his condition was not getting better on the air and he’s still searching for an actual diagnosis, retiring was the right call. For everybody. He appears in great spirits off the air, so hopefully whatever he’s battling can be treated going forward.

NESN says they’ll conduct a nationwide search for Jack’s replacement. Northeastern grad Alex Faust has filled in over the last few years and is an obvious candidate. I’m sure he’s fine, but he will not be able to replicate the authentic voice of Edwards, who had the ability to get under the skin of opposing fan bases with ease.

Gorman and Edwards were unique voices. Their replacements will sound much more generic: that seems to be the trend in that position. We’ll see if over time the “new” voices of the Celtics and Bruins connect with their respective fanbases the way the two guys exiting were able to do for years.

On Friday’s Kentucky Oaks…

While most of the attention will be on Saturday’s Run for the Roses, the 2024 Run for the Lilles features a competitive field of 14 and looks like a good betting race.

It’s the highlight of a strong card at Churchill Downs (USA Network/Peacock beginning at 1 PM) and the start of the Two-Day, Oaks/Derby Double. A suggested approach to that wager is below.

Before we get there, the Oaks field, with bonus commentary from ~~former~~ retired thoroughbred trainer Chuck Simon from a Substack newsletter you should be subscribed to

The goal, as always, is to try to find the winner and make some money.

2024 Kentucky Oaks
1 1/8 MILES
Post Time 5:57 EST

~~1. Tapit Jenallie (30-1)~~
~~Mut:~~ ~~There is a lot of talent in this Oaks group (and on the AE List) and no disrespect to the connections, but this one from the rail seems too slow. Should be every bit of that 30-1.~~

~~Chuck:~~ I love the draw for this Tapit filly who should be able to save ground early and commence a late rally behind what figures to be a strong early pace. Complete rookies for human connections as Milligan came into the CD meet with zero starts there and Esquivel isn’t a regular but she is one of the bombs that I think can crash the party and get on the board at a crazy price

Love it. A price push right out of the gate. (Bad break for the connections and Chuck, the horse is scratched.)

2. Gin Gin (30-1)
Mut: Super Trainer™️ Brad Cox likely to have jockey Geroux take back and make one run and hope for the best. Owns a win at CD and on a wet track, in case we get one Friday.

Chuck: This filly really had no excuse in a relatively soft prep at the Big A and despite Super Trainer Bradley Cox’s prolific win rate in Kentucky, my tickets will feature no Gin Gin’s.

3. Where's My Ring (15-1)
Mut: Pace player has been a different horse with blinkers. Likely involved early but faces better today than she's met in her last three or four starts. Like you said Chuck, not a great rendition of the Gazelle.

Chuck: Good points. She got the trip of trips under a perfect ride by Jose Lezcano who will be trying to recreate something similar with Fiona’s Magic and at least one of the fillies with tactical speed drawn outside, likely to set a lively pace. She will have to be better and while it’s possible, she feels a notch below the best here.

4. Regulatory Risk (20-1)
Mut: One more from the Gazelle. Blinkers come off here but not one of those classic "Other Chads" that I'm worried beats me in the Oaks.

Chuck: She might be in here more to keep AEs Our Pretty Woman and Candied out than anything, as the original plan seemed to be to skip the race and allow stablemate Ways and Means to get in off the bubble. That said she is pretty mediocre for this class of race.

Excellent point. There is some talent on that AE list.

5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1)
Mut: Very nice return win in the Fantasy albeit with a good trip. Reportedly working well and hoping she gets forgotten at the windows with bigger names in here. Win contender for me.

Chuck: The list of two-turn, graded winners on the dirt by her sire Fast Anna has one name on it, Thorpedo Anna. She was very, very good in the Fantasy and a repeat of the performance probably puts her in the winner’s circle. However, McPeek reportedly only gave her one prep because she isn’t a robust filly and I’m a little wary of one great prep fillies, plus I’m a route distance truther and until she actually gets the 9f, I will remain skeptical.

6. Lemon Muffin (30-1)
Mut: I never get these D. Wayne Lukas bombs right. Did no running in the the Fantasy. Just the one fast race and that field has not come back running. Not for me. Bigger price than Oaks' winner Lemon's Forever? (47-1)

Chuck: I’m more of a blueberry muffin guy to be honest and you aren’t alone in never hitting with D. Wayne longshot stabs. If she wins, I won’t.

7. Fiona's Magic (30-1)
Mut: There is nothing that says she wants to go the 9F. A likely leader into the first turn and just as likely to finish dead last in the group. Pass.

Chuck: Agreed! She should serve up a quick pace but that’s likely where her impact on this race ends.

8. Tarifa (7/2)
Mut: Obvious contender and likely favorite. Fast and consistent. Enough speed to be involved early. BUT...a little keen early and I wonder how she'll react to the big field and crowd. From the Super Trainer™️ after her FG Oaks win. " “She’s still learning to settle. She stays on and has a pedigree to keep going,” Cox said. “We’ve got six weeks. We’ll regroup and see how’s she’s taken it. She’s going to have to settle more, the larger field, bigger crowd. She’s got some stuff to work on.” A real issue Mr. Former Trainer?

Chuck: I prefer retired trainer, former sounds like I got kicked out of the club. Nervous fillies are perhaps at their biggest disadvantage on days like Oaks Day when there is a lot of commotion on the backside, the walk over is in front of a crowd of rowdies and the paddock is packed to the brim. Add in NBC cameras and drones flying overhead and you have a lot of triggers for Tarfifa. Those worries aside, she is a talented filly who is getting better incrementally plus she has tactical speed and the distance should be within her scope. However, at 7/2 she’s not nearly as appealing because of her possible behavioral issues.

9. Everland (30-1)
Mut: Has never raced on dirt. The two recent dirt works look slow. I guess with the best TFUS late pace number, just try and make one run and crash the Super Hi-5 Pool. No thanks.

Chuck: Yeah making her dirt debut in the KY Oaks and combined with her trainer only winning 5% lifetime at CD makes Everland a toss.

10. Into Champange (30-1)
Mut: Another in here that has flashed early speed but is unlikely to get the distance based on past performance. Looking forward to betting her when she cuts back in distance next time.

Chuck: She figures to be part of the pace but as you stated, her pedigree doesn’t exactly scream more distance, she may have been better served trying the Eight Belles (race 9) for 3-year-old fillies going 7f. I shall pass as well.

11. Ways and Means (5-1)
Mut: Has been a star in the making since debut. Weird trip at Gulfstream and now coming in off a work that might have been “too fast.” Brimming with talent but is always overbet. Doesn’t feel like she’s following the usual Chad Brown program. Admittedly don’t love her chances here. Famous last words trying to beat Chad.

Chuck: The “too fast” works are funny to me as trainers try to micromanage everything these days, but the reality is that fast horses working fast is rarely an issue. Her problem is inexperience as she has one two-turn race which also happens to be her only race in 7 months as well. What does she want to do? Can she rate behind horses and take dirt or will she wind up wide as she has in all of her races? This is a very hard race to win if she can’t save some ground at some point.

Mut: She is the hardest read for me in a field where I think 5 or 6 can win.

12. Power Squeeze (12-1)
Mut: Has been better since stretching out. Price will be right and has run fast enough to be in the mix, but I'll be using underneath only. Can't imagine she's able to recreate that awesome Oaks trip where she beat Ways and Means.

Chuck: As unlucky as Ways and Means has been in her brief career, Power Squeeze has been fortunate. She took advantage of the mishaps of Ways and Means last out when running her down late to win the Gulfstream Park Oaks which followed up a perfect rail skimming trip in the Suncoast at Tampa. She draws poorly here though and Danny Centeno is gonna have his work cut out for him trying to work out a ground-saving trip from there. She does appear to be bred to handle the extra distance and more importantly, she wins, so I’d include her in exotics despite the wide draw

13. Just F Y I (9/2)
Mut: I thought that comeback effort in the Ashland was solid. Off the pace on a day four of the five dirt winners were on the lead. Can be involved early and make her own trip. Trainer Bill Mott 22% with this type of layoff on the dirt the last three years. Working well coming in and a real threat to take this thing at a fair price.

Chuck: She is as solid as they come and agree on the comeback in the Ashland after the late scratch due to a fever at GP interrupted Mott’s planned season debut. Seems like she is still getting better and if she had drawn better, I might make her my selection in here, but post 13 is tricky and a wide trip sure seems possible. That run to the first turn will be a doozy.

14. Leslie's Rose (4-1)
Mut: Another with a big shot in here. Similar to Just F Y I - but was the win over that one in the Ashland her ceiling? Could end up wider than that one too, depending on the break. Now that I look at it, the break for these will be big for their chances and likely impact the rest of the field's chances. Win candidate.

Chuck: Yes, she got a great trip in the Ashland that is very unlikely to be repeated Friday. What’s so interesting about this year’s Oaks is the race to the first turn. The outside 4-5 horses all seem to want to be forwardly placed and they can’t all be in the perfect stalking spot. Someone is going to get hung out to dry and Leslie’s Rose may be the one. Clearly has the ability to win, difficult to determine how she gets there.

ALSO ELIGIBLE (Will need scratches to get in)

15. Our Pretty Woman (15-1) - IN
Mut: We've mentioned the talent here on the AE list. Not only talented, if this one gets in it will inject even more pace into this race. The post would not scare me away but the running style in this field and other speed might. Likely to be a factor in this division all summer but hard to use in this spot.

Chuck: I love AEs as they often wind up overlays as people don’t even realize they are in the race. Our Pretty Woman drawing in would add to the scramble to the first turn for sure though I’m not sure that she can clear the others, she can help brew up a swift pace.

~~16. Candied (20-1)~~

Okay, Chuck - your longshot scratched. How are you going to bet this race?

Chuck: Yep, I’m gonna change course and key Tarfifa in exactas top and bottom with Just FYI/Power Squeeze/Ways and Means/Where’s my Ring and Our Pretty Woman. Also, key her on top in tri’s with those in second and all in the third spot.

Mut: I like it. The #15 getting in has to juice this pace up and for that reason, I’ll take #5 Thorpedo Anna at anywhere near her ML 5-1.

5-13-8-11…and I’ll use your #3 as a price with those. But keying off #5.

Oaks/Derby Double: One of my favorite bets of the year.

A-A Play: 5,13 w/ 4,8,17
B-A Play: 3,8,11 w/ 4,8,17
A-B Play: 5,13 w/ 2,11,15,19,20

Note: If track conditions prove advantageous to a certain running style, this play may change.

MutStack Derby Coverage

Saturday Morning 10 AM - Special Derby Day Newsletter with special guest Chuck Simon

Saturday - Live from Mohegan Sun’s FanDuel Sportsbook with updates on X.com.

On your Friday MutStack Notes…

The online reaction to Ryan Whitney’s X.com post involving two cartoon bears, suggesting it was somehow supporting sexual assault, was surprising even for 2024. As someone who dabbles in AI cartoons myself, I certainly didn’t take the post that way. Kirk Minihane called it “maybe the wildest Barstool story ever” on his show Wednesday. If the AI-created cartoon post didn’t come from a Barstool personality, it would not have been as big a story. Hot take, I know. Whitney, Kirk, and Dave Portnoy spent the first half hour of the Unnamed Show talking about the post and reaction in detail and I thought it was the best “segment” the show has done.
Again, I should not be surprised, but are people ACTUALLY mad about Pat Beverly’s post-game? It’s funny, not offensive.
When the Leafs win Saturday, will Bruins fans blame Whitney?
I did watch the FX Documentary The New York Times Presents: Broken Horses. I have thoughts and I had planned on a quick review here, but I’m going to audible and write about it as a larger racing part of a future Four-Pack.
The Mass Gaming Commission has considered banning sports book promos that offer more than just bonus bets as rewards. Fanatics offers new users a match of their deposit in credit for their sports apparel business…at least for now.
I have high hopes for The Greatest Roast of All Time: Tom Brady, airing Sunday live on Netflix…and expect to be let down.

I think we have indeed covered it all.

Comments open for hot takes, feedback, and winning bets. Back tomorrow for a full Derby Day post. Come say hello if you’re headed to Mohegan Sun.

Good luck with all your Derby and playoff bets. Thanks for reading.

Good weekend.

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