Friday Four-Pack 6.5.26
Trollin' Volin at it again. A Red Sox prediction. Final Belmont Stakes at The Spa. KMS Live in NH. Dave has an Owner's Note from Saratoga.
A note from MutStack owner Dave Portnoy:
I’m getting smoked. Need winners and Bitcoin to bounce back or Mut may be on the unemployment line.
Not good. Got this owner’s note late Friday afternoon. It is in line with Dave’s post from this morning.
He’s a great handicapper. He’s with Elio, another great handicapper. I have faith they’ll find some winners. I will admit, I am also getting smoked at Saratoga. The track is way too speed-favoring.
I have no clue on Bitcoin. But I have faith.
I don’t want to be unemployed. I’m gonna go find some winners.
Happy Belmont Weekend!!! Not panicking at all!!!!
Check out this post from Dan Wetzel.
On the left is a Zillow listing of homes for sale in Saginaw, MI. On the right are the listed prices for Knicks/Spurs NBA Finals on Monday night at the Garden.
This is INSANE.
I know it’s been a while. I know the Knicks are as popular as the Yankees, if not more so in New York. But 10K to watch a two-hour basketball game? That sounds awful. And that’s one of the two things that stood out about this.
First: let’s say you’re not super rich. You decide to go all out for these tickets. Like, it’s a major investment for you and your family. Would you be able to enjoy the game knowing how much money you dumped into seeing your team live? Is that cost stress offset by the likes you get on IG from posting about the game? Or the buzz of being in the building?
Me? I’d be thinking about the cost of the seats the entire game. From the time I walked in the building until the end of the game. Would not be able to help it. I have some anxiety issues as it is, and this would not be good for me. No thanks, would not do it. Just stay home.
Second: If you’re a Knicks fan seeing this, are you concerned that the building might be full of people with a lot of money who just want to be seen, rather than diehard fans? Is there a chance the building isn't as wild as it should be, thanks to a potentially corporate crowd?
Years ago when Sox tickets were crazy, and the Orioles were terrible, people pointed out that it would have been cheaper to go to an O’s game in Baltimore to watch the Sox vs. a night out at Fenway. That HAS to be true for these Knicks fans, right? Flight, hotel, tickets in San Antonio < going to MSG. Wild.
In the East, I thought NY was good, but Boston was just better. I was more wrong about the Celtics than I was the Knicks. The Knicks are not unlikable, but their fans are. Coleman. Hubbs. Meek. Can’t root for them.
Go Spurs.
Meanwhile, Ben Volin wrote some really dumb things on the A.J. Brown trade. I have a Red Sox prediction. It’s the final Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. And it’s KMS Live in Laconia on Saturday.
All ahead in Friday Four-Pack #175.
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On The Globe’s Ben Volin being a moron…
Forgive me if I am recycling an old headline.
Because Ben Volin has said, written, and done some moronic things as a Patriots reporter and columnist for the Boston Globe. His A.J. Brown column this week that I’m about to pick through was not as dumb as, say, taking a DM from a Stoolie and then going on the radio and reporting it as a real source, but it’s still worth highlighting here on this first Friday of June.
It would be naïve, though, not to consider another reason for making the trade now — to distract from the episode involving Vrabel and Dianna Russini. Tuesday’s media session was previously scheduled to be open to the media, and it turned into the A.J. Brown Show, from Vrabel’s news conference, to the interviews with the offensive coaches, to Brown being the focus at practice, to Brown speaking to reporters afterward.
It certainly seems the Patriots were so desperate to move past the Vrabel-Russini story that they were willing to overpay for Brown.
The idea of making a monster football trade to overshadow a coach’s personal issue is a wildly dumb take in its own right. What makes this paragraph even dumber is the media session point. Volin is suggesting they make this trade, I guess in part, so that the media session already scheduled focuses on Brown rather than Vrabel.
Volin knows he can ask whatever question he wants, right? He’s a reporter paid to cover the team. He might rather be covering the PGA Tour, but that’s for a different newsletter. In this case, today, he’s still employed by the Boston Globe to write about the Patriots. Ben, if you have more questions about Vrabel, Russini, his family, his wife…go ahead and ask! My guess is he’d rather have other reporters ask so he didn’t have to, and then write about it off the Vrabel responses. Was Ben hoping to ask Vrabel how his marriage is going? Another question on how the team was responding to him and his coaching after all this? Just ask, Ben; it’s not illegal.
Also worth noting that the Brown-to-the-Pats buzz started before any of the Vrabel/Russini news. I think.
But yeah, they traded a first-round pick for a #1 WR to change the team narrative. 🙄🙄🙄
I’d like the Brown and Doubs moves more were the Patriots able to keep Diggs or Boutte and move on from DeMario Douglas or Efton Chism. Instead, the Patriots might just be reshuffling the deck chairs at the top of the depth chart.
Brown, by almost any receiving metric from last season, is an upgrade over Diggs. And a major upgrade for the team. Brown and Doubs > Diggs and whoever. I don’t think it’s that close.
It’s true, the Eagles weren’t going to trade Brown until after June 1, but the Patriots didn’t have to pounce right away. They could have made the Eagles sweat it out a bit.
Why would they want to wait to do this? Let’s say some team loses their #1 WR and Brown is still out there - then that team jumps the Pats. Why risk that? Isn’t there also a benefit to having Brown at camp this week to work with Drake Maye? OF COURSE there is.
I get it, Ben has earned that Trollin’ Volin nickname time and time again, but this shit is sad. Felger and Mazz shit on the trade too, but Felger is smart enough to pull it off. Volin is not.
If the Bills had made this trade, my guess is Ben would have been ripping the team for not making it themselves.
I love the trade. I don’t care that Volin doesn’t. Plus, he doesn’t even go all in on hating the trade; it’s a half-hate. Just go all in! But the idea that the trade was part of a ploy to distract the media and fans from the Vrabel stuff is garbage.
Tough scene for Volin, who got some more bad work news that I actually missed back in March. That’s below in the Notes.
On Not a Red Sox lock but a prediction…
It’s a very comfy shirt. Also, before you troll me in the comments, yes, I paid for it.
On the 158th running of the Belmont Stakes…
It was a good run.
Saturday marks the third and final Belmont Stakes hosted update at Saratoga Race Course. And I’m okay with that.
Given that NYRA announced they’d be selling tickets the day of the race this year, I’d say there are a lot of racing fans that agree with me. The first two editions of the race at The Spa sold out completely.
Saratoga is special. Adding racing days sounds like a good idea, but sometimes, less is more. I’ll be content when the meet closes on Labor Day and does not return until next July. Excited to see the new Belmont Park later this fall.
As for this year’s race, it feels like a terrific rendition of the Belmont Stakes.
The early betting has Renegade at 4-5 off that 2-1 morning line. Could be one big bet, I guess? Those odds suggest the Todd Pletcher trainee wins this race 55.6% of the time. He ran well in the Derby after a tough start, always comes running, and has Irad Ortiz aboard today. But 4-5? That’s way too low. We’ll see how much those odds change over the next few days.
Golden Tempo got a dream setup in the Derby. He was also 23-1 that day. He’ll be about 4-1 on Saturday, and while I respect the horse and the connections, I don’t think the pace will be as hot, and I wonder about his ability to get a second straight perfect ride from Jose Ortiz. Talented, but not my top pick on Saturday.
The horse I want out of the Derby is the horse I bet in the Derby, Commandment. Having watched the race back more than a few times, I don’t think this guy had a great trip. Johnny V getting aboard feels like the right move. I can see him sitting in that second flight or horses (Powershift, Growth Equity in that first flight) and getting a jump in the deep closers. One of the reasons I liked him in the Derby was the fight he had shown late in races. We didn’t get to see that on the First Saturday in May. He is a tough horse to pass, and I’d take my chances if he was trying to hold them off late just after 7 PM on Saturday.
I’m also going to use #8 Emerging Market. Chad Brown could have waited for the Peter Pan, then the Travers, after rushing this guy into the Derby. But he ends up here, and that says something to me. I have not seen the DRF Clocker report, but I’m guessing that last work was a good one. Prat is one of the best, and he stays here. The Derby effort did little more than add some foundation to this lightly-raced three-year-old. Contender.
He’s 10-1 in the early betting and plenty useable at that price.
Chief Wallabee will be on my Late Pick 5 tickets. Powershift could take advantage of a slow pace and has real talent to hit the board, maybe win this. I won’t have any of the 1, 5 or 6 on my tickets.
Full breakdown tomorrow on the Barstool Blog, but it seems likely #7 Commandment will be my Belmont horse after being my Derby horse five weeks ago.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
⚾ If you want more railing on the embarrassment that is the Bostn Red Sox, go watch or listen to Episode 39 - Dirty Water - A Boston Sports Podcast. Taped late Thursday after the Sox loss and the Bello demotion. Vibes were not great. You can also listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
📺 In writing about Volin’s AJ Brown story, I went looking for the latest episode of Boston Globe Sports Report. The 30-minute weekly show, hosted by Volin, launched last October.
“There is always something to talk about with Boston sports,” said Linda Henry, CEO of Boston Globe Media at the time. “This new show brings the best of the legendary, award-winning Boston Globe sports team together each week to provide the deeply experienced perspective and analysis to NESN viewers and Globe readers.”
The most recent episode I could find was Episode 20, from March 16. Since then, no new shows have been posted online. Volin has hosted some podcast-like videos on the Globe’s YouTube channel, and in one he said he had to “revive” the Boston Globe Sports Report “here in podcast form.” But there is no podcast feed, just a one-off video or two on the channel.
The diligent newsletter publisher I am, I reached out to Globe PR to ask about the status of the show. I was told the show was ended and was pointed to this post where Ben made that announcement back in March. Bad job on me for missing this.
The Globe/NESN has tried a few versions of this show, and none has worked.
Volin is still hosting videos on the Globe’s YouTube page, if you’re looking for his takezzzzzz on the Celtics, Alex Cora, and more.
🎙️ Is emailing Globe PR about a TV show that only me and Dave Cullinane cared about real reporting? No chance. For that, I suggest Episode 1 of The Case Season 3 - Unreliable Narrator. Host, coworker, and friend Kirk Minihane hates when I compliment him, and he’ll probably unsubscribe from MutStack because I’m writing this, but the first episode of the new season is awesome. I’m hooked.
❓ I mentioned something last week about how Saturday’s KMS Live Show in Laconia would be the final KMS Live Show. That’s clearly not true, as Kirk mentioned this week that those would continue. But with The Kirk Minihane Show ending, I don’t know; this live show feels different. I have never had so many people reach out about the show, asking if I’m going, etc. So I’m not the only one who seems to feel this way.
🏇🏻 The Belmont goes off at 7 PM, one hour before the show. Is there a place near the theatre we can watch the race? Maybe Hector’s Bar and Grill? See you in NH.
🏈 I am not reporting this, but the Diggs-back-to-the-Pats rumor keeps getting whispered around Boston. And the whispers got louder Thursday. Just sayin.
🏈 My boys are obsessive Madden players. I told them Thursday that Madden 2027 is adding the stupid Tush Push to the gameplay.
“So stupid,” was the response from Son #2
“It could ruin Madden if it’s too over-powered,” from Son #1
Take note, EA Sports.
❓ This was a very weird clip. Rich seems very weird.
Okay, that feels like enough Stack for today.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Full Belmont at Saratoga Blog tomorrow morning on the Barstool Blog. I need to find some winners for my boss.
Thanks for reading. And watching. #thankyoukirk