Friday Four-Pack 6.7.24

Celtics make a statement. Dan Hurley to LA? A historic Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Notes!

4.3%!!!

The next time you find yourself on a cold streak, go ahead and refer to this post. Make yourself feel better - you’re not the worst sports bettor out there. Congrats!

On Tuesday, Mr. 4.3% Marcano was banned for life by Major League Baseball after he was found guilty of betting on not only MLB games but on his own team - at that time the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was injured and did not appear in those games, but betting on Pirates’ games earned him MLB’s lifetime ban hammer.

Four other players received one-year bans for betting on baseball, including former Red Sox prospect Jay Groome. The players in question are all no-name, lower-level players. There is no Mookie Betts on this list.

On the same day we found out about the suspensions, we also learned that Ippei Mizuhara, the ex-interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, had pleaded guilty to both tax and bank fraud changes. Mizuhara was allegedly betting on sports with an illegal bookie and stole money directly from Ohtani’s bank. From ESPN -

Mizuhara helped Ohtani open the account in 2018, then later changed the registered emails and phone numbers in order to personally receive notifications for it. A plea agreement stated that Mizuhara impersonated Ohtani in phone conversations with bank representatives looking to verify wire transfers on at least 24 occasions. In interviews with federal prosecutors, Ohtani said he never authorized those wire transfers and was unaware of them.

Mizahura’s guilty plea led MLB to announce it had formerly absolved Ohtani, one of the game’s biggest stars, of any wrongdoing.

Mizuhara's guilty plea prompted Major League Baseball, which previously announced it had launched a separate investigation, to declare that Ohtani was "a victim of fraud and this matter has been closed."

I’m on record saying I don’t believe Ohtani was the one betting illegally. Maybe I’m being naive, but too many people would have heard whispers with a player as big as Ohtani. I find it very believable that Mizuhara was the one betting over his head, lied to the bank, and stole $17 million or so to cover those losses.

BUT…the cynic in me has to point out that the timing of these two stories breaking on the same day…is a little too perfect. “See! We caught five guys betting on baseball! Focus on that and not the fact that our Ohtani investigation was completed in less than two months!”

If you were trying to deflect from how quickly you opened and then subsequently closed the Ohtahni investigation, announcing the suspensions for five other players certainly helps.

As athletes continue to navigate the rules in a world where sports betting is legal, we’ll continue to see stories like this.

When it’s Jay Groome or Jontay Porter, it’s easy to throw the book at the player and call them morons. What happens when an All-Star starting pitcher or star quarterback is the one betting?

Well, didn’t we sort of get the answer this week? It was a huge production for the no-name guys while the investigation into the star was quickly and quietly closed. Since Mizahura was involved it’s not exactly cut and dry, but at some point, it will be. There will be a star in the middle of this with no grey area.

Whatever league that player plays in, how that league deals with it, will be a huge deal not only for that league but also for legal sports betting in this country.

It’s not a matter of if, but when.

Meanwhile, the Celtics rolled. Dan Hurley might be out. It’s a historic weekend for thoroughbred racing. And I’m picking a 10-1 shot in the Belmont.

That’s all ahead in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the Celtics’ Game 1 demolition of the Mavs…

The Celtics are just the better team in the NBA Finals.

That’s the simple and obvious take after Game One. But you could see watching Thursday night examples of how and why they’re not just better than Dallas, but why they’re a better version of the Boston teams that fell short over the last two seasons.

• They have a better roster. We highlighted this point last week - Brad Stevens has done an incredible job adding talent the last two years. It was on full display in Game One. Jrue Holiday was a team-tigh +20. Kristaps Porziņģis poured in 20 points off the bench and seemed unguardable. There is just so much more talent on this team than now, and Stevens gets the credit for that.

• The coach is better. We saw glimpses of this during the regular season and playoffs so far, where Joe Mazzulla actually calls the timeout at the right time and the team responds. The Mavs had cut the lead from 29 down to 8 when Mazzulla called a timeout with just over four minutes left in the third quarter Thursday night. The Celtics blitzed Dallas with a 14-0 run out of the timeout and it was over. Mazzulla also gets credit for a defense that took away Luka’s play-making ability (one assist). And an offense that got his stars great looks on offense.

• Speaking of those stars, they’re both better. Jaylen Brown is a better scorer than he was even last year. And Jayson Tatum is a better all-around player. He has the ability to impact the game even when he doesn’t score 30 points.

Combine that with Kyrie Irving being rattled by the TD Garden crowd and you have all the making of a Game One blowout.

There’ll be adjustments on the Dallas side, but they’re simply not good enough. The Celtics are better than the Mavs. And a better version of their most recent teams that fell short.

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On Dan Hurley possibly leaving UConn for the Lakers…

I am a UConn grad and fan.

I don’t have a rational take on this.

I don’t want Hurley to leave.

I love Dan Hurley.

I tried to brush it off on Thursday’s Kirk Minihane Show as Hurley leveraging UConn for a bigger contract, but the fact the two sides are meeting Friday makes that idea 100% wishcasting.

I think living in California right now doesn't sound great and hopefully, the Hurley’s consider that.

I agree with Nick and will add that Hurley screaming at basketball millionaires might not have a long shelf life.

I would understand if he does leave, given the landscape of college basketball RE: the transfer portal. Seems like a pain in the ass for coaches.

I’m worried if he does leave, the transfer portal will be full of UConn players. I hope I’m wrong.

I really want Woj to be wrong.

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On the Belmont Stakes at Saratoga…

That’s a great logo. And hopefully, it’s a great race.

With Belmont Park going through a massive renovation, Saratoga Race Course will host both the 2024 and 2025 editions of the Belmont Stakes.

Saratoga is the crown jewel of NY racing. The Travers is a special race every August, but the chance to host an actual Triple Crown event upstate is something I’m sure NYRA execs have been dreaming about for years.

It’s also pretty clear that those same NYRA execs are using this opportunity to show the folks at the Breeders’ Cup that they can host that event. I think it’s much more likely a renovated Belmont Park gets a Breeders’ Cup and it should: there has not been a Breeders’ Cup in New York since 2005. As for Saturday’s big race.

The Belmont Stakes at Saratoga
1 1/4 miles
6:41 PM EST (FOX)

#1 Seize the Grey (8-1)
Still baffled he was able to get such an easy lead in the Preakness. Much more early speed in this field. Cashed on him when he won the Pat Day Mile, then faded completely last time. Likely to be against again, given the field and the added early pace.

#2 Resilience (10-1)
His Debry was run was much better than the chart reads. Had to get over from the post 18 while Mystik Dan sat the perfect trip. Looked live at the top of the stretch but faded late - thanks to being just off the pace and having to go super wide in the stretch. In a much better spot to work out a trip off the speed here. Has to get faster, but off a big workout last Sunday, this guy looms a price play for me and a win contender.

#3 Mystik Dan (5-1)
The Derby winner backed up his Kentucky effort with a good runner-up finish in the Preakness when he could not get to the wire-to-wire winner. Owns two of the four 100+ Beyers in the field. One of those came with a rail run in the slop. The other was that perfect trip in the Derby. Could he work out a similar trip today? Sure, but he’ll need it to get the win.

#4 The Wine Steward (15-1)
I think he’s a good horse. I think he’ll show early speed. And I think he’s probably entered in the wrong race. Part of the pace, but don’t think he’ll be there at the end. Pass for me

#5 Antiquarian (12-1)
Based on the amount of people who like this one, the 12-1 ML seems unlikely. Has really improved over his last two starts. Reportedly the folks at Centennial Farms have thought highly of him since last summer. Like Resilience, should be just off the first flight and a contender to win this.

#6 Dornoch (15-1)
Had no shot in the Derby after checking early and being taken out of his game. Has good early foot and could lead this group going into the first turn - and make no mistake speed has historically been good at Saratoga going 9+ furlongs. But is this one really going to wire the Belmont Stakes with other speed in here? Not for me.

#7 Protective (20-1)
My replay notes say he got bumped two back at the start of the Wood and still ran on okay. In the Peter Pan, it looked like he was full of run but had traffic in front of him into the stretch. A maiden named Nolan’s Cat ran third in the 2005 Belmont at a huge price and I could see this one rounding out the tri or super today with the right trip. But not on top.

#8 Honor Marie (12-1)
Tough read. The people who liked him in the Derby are supposed to draw a line through that race and like him again here, right? If Dornoch is the favorite to lead them into the first turn, this guy is the favorite to be last. Going to sit and make one run and has a race (LA Derby) that puts him in the mix, but might be left with too much to do late.

#9 Sierra Leone (9/5)
The proverbial ‘horse to beat.’ After lugging in badly in the Derby stretch, trainer Chad Brown trying a new bit for the Risen Star winner in this race. “He’s accepted the bit and he traveled well into the bridle,” Brown added. “That’s all I’m really looking for. It’s not a severe or drastic change. It’s getting more attention because he lost the Derby and lugged in a bit. It’s a natural and normal equipment change for a horse who might be having some steering issues. Fast. Fighter. Always shows up. Also gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat. Reportedly working well. Obvious win contender at a very short price.

#10 Mindframe (7/2)
This one has a chance to make me look really dumb. Two fast races. Two good figs (both Beyer and Timeform). Might just be a freak. Has a trainer who has won this race four times and the best jockey in the country. BUT…now he’s marooned outside with two others speeds to his inside. Probably has to be used into the first turn for position. And he finally faces a field with talent after two dominating wins over B, C and D-level players.

Win Contenders
Sierra Leone, Resilience, Antiquarian, Mystik Dan and to a much lesser extent Mindframe would be my win contenders.

Weather: The rain does not look as bad as was previously reported and it looks like we might get a fast track for the Belmont

The Selection: The way Mindframe wins this is by going right to the front and just taking this group wire-to-wire OR he has to rate from the outside and pass more experienced horses late. There’s at least some chance he’s a freak and that first option plays out, but I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome. Fringe win contender but will use defensively in multis.

Mystik Dan might be able to get another perfect trip, but I’m not very excited to bet on it. But I’d be ignoring his last two races not to acknowledge that he’s fast enough to win Saturday. But he needs a trip. Again.

Sure feels like Antiquarian is the ‘wise-guy’ horse in this year’s Belmont. But he’s bred to get the distance. Never looked like a loser in the Peter Pan and should sit a nice trip just off the other speed.

The most likely scenario is Sierra Leone finally putting it all together and winning on Saturday. He’ll be coming late, gets new equipment and a new jockey, and has reportedly been training well. He’s an ‘A’ in my multi-race bets, but the 9/5 price tag says I just can’t pick him on top.

The horse I want to bet on and will pick on top is Resilience. Ignore the 89 Beyer in the Derby - this horse ran well. Junior Alvarado did a great job getting this horse over from that wide post position and into contention. Today, he gets a cozy inside spot just off the speed. He gets targets in front of him to chase down. Plus he’s coming off a workout that convinced trainer Bill Mott to run him in this spot. Add in a nice 10-1 ML and he’s my top pick in the 2024 Belmont Stakes.

How We’ll Bet the Race: We still have a day to work through how we’ll bet the race. That will be posted in tomorrow’s Belmont Stakes Final Thoughts. Meanwhile, we have a Belmont Podcast to keep you busy until then. Listen for free here!

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On your Friday MutStack Notes….

• As expected, it’s Fred Toucher who is the one taking shots at his former Toucher and Rich partner Rich Shertenlieb. From Boston Radio Watch -

I see a lot of social media posts that Fred is “angry,” but at least it comes across as genuine. Authentic. Real. I don’t get the same sense listening to Rich, who will sometimes make a point and then seconds later argue against himself on the same point for no reason.

“Chocolate is best. Vanilla sucks. Well, no, vanilla doesn’t suck. It’s actually not that bad.” Something like that. It’s infuriating. And I did this a lot in the early days of Mut and Merloni, I should know.

He sounds scared to say the wrong thing, even about a dumb sports opinion. I’ll take real anger over fake whatever that is every day of the week.

• A couple of bonus picks for Friday at Saratoga from Jessica Paquette. Again, much more detail in the podcast. Jess loves these plays.
  
  RACE 10: #5 EVVIE JETS (15-1)
  RACE 11: #3 DIDIA (9/2) “I’m going to empty my ADW account on Didia.”
  

• When the Massachusetts Gaming Commission made a big deal wildly overreacted to Barstool Sports’ Big Cat Can’t Lose Parlay, it was clear they’d take a hard stance with media partners of the sports books when it came to touting picks and plays.
  
  So it should be no surprise the MGC will hold a formal adjudicatory hearing into a gambling-related remark made by ESPN analyst Rece Davis on College Game Day. Davis called a bet being touted by Erin Dolan a “risk-free investment” when discussing an under on Northwestern men’s basketball.
  
  ESPN gaming partner PENN could be punished for Davis’ throwaway line, which, to me, seems silly. Bill Speros has all the details.

I’ve been lucky to have the chance to collaborate with Chuck Simon for a lot of race writing this spring. Chuck - a retired horse trainer turned media star - was nice enough to start linking to my work last year from his great Substack.

I’ve been a guest on his podcast with Barry Spears. We’ve texted frequently about racing, the NBA and Patriots - mostly Chuck the Dolphins fan mocking the Pats.

His brutal honesty and unapologetic takes on racing are exactly what the industry needs more of right now. His voice is vital to the sport. So it’s been noticeable that Chuck has been quiet since the Derby. Chuck is not quiet about anything!

Chuck posted this week that he is dealing with some major health issues. Wishing him the best and a quick return to health. Can’t wait to read and listen to him again, hopefully soon. Get well soon, Chuck.

Back tomorrow with a full Belmont Stakes Final Thoughts with picks for all nine graded stakes Saturday at Saratoga. Should be a great day of racing. Come say hello if you’re at Mohegan Sun. I’ll be in the FanDuel Sportsbook with “The Big A” Anthony Stabile starting at 12:30 PM.

Good luck with your bets this weekend.

Thanks for reading.

Good weekend.