Friday Four-Pack 7.11.25

Tucker Carlson attacks the sports betting industry. Celtics going full tank? Red Sox facing their own test. MutStack Notes and more.

A Bronx Tale is an excellent movie.

The scene above involving “The Door Test” is one of the most memorable scenes from the film.

Now, is every woman who doesn’t reach over and unlock the door for you, “a selfish broad, and all you're seeing is the tip of the iceberg,” and you should move on immediately, as Sonny suggests in the movie? Debatable. But I’d say it’s a pretty good barometer. And a great scene. More than a few guys probably brag about using this test on their future wives and how they passed.

In 2025, we have a new test involving a car. It’s the a-hole test.

If you're one of those people who honk your horn at the car in front of you when that vehicle doesn’t move forward the millisecond the light turns green, you’re an a-hole.

It’s become an epidemic. Like, I get hitting the horn after 10 seconds with no movement. Maybe, maybe even six or seven seconds. But this horn-honking just after the light changes is out of control.

Is that extra two seconds sitting at the light going to change your day? Is the rest of your life such a mess that you need to feel powerful, reminding the car in front of you it’s time to move?

We’ll talk more about personal responsibility later in this week’s newsletter, but if you’re running late for something, that’s on you, not the person you're stuck in traffic with. Leave earlier if you’re so stressed out that you feel the need to take it out on someone else in traffic.

The driver of the car in front of you could be looking out for someone about to blow through a red light (happens all the time). Or maybe they’re in conversation with someone in the car and not trying to win the battle from the imaginary starting line of a green light. Perhaps they’re a new driver who just got their license. Or shit, they could be having a bad day and not 100% focused on the light. Life happens.

If you’re not first at the light, but you find yourself pushing down on the horn the second you see green and can’t pull forward, you’re the a-hole. Fact.

The Boston Red Sox are headed towards their own sort of a-hole test in late July.

After beating up on some of the worst teams in baseball, the Sox find themselves just five games back in the AL East.

If they’re within striking distance of the division and don’t make moves to improve the team before MLB’s July 31st trade deadline, then they’re as bad as the quick honkers at the stoplight.

You’d think this would be obvious, but former GM Jim Bowden suggested this week the team might look to trade Alex Bregman.

The Red Sox would like to extend Bregman before the trade deadline, but it won’t be easy with Scott Boras as his agent. And, I’m hearing, in my conversations throughout the league, if he’s not extended, they could end up trading him to Seattle, Detroit or Milwaukee.

At that point, John Henry, just sell the team.

They can’t possibly trade Bregman, even if they don’t extend him. Let him play out this season—and why are we talking extension with Bregman already? Let’s see if he’s healthy in the second half of the season. There’s no baseball reason to trade Bregman.

And there is undoubtedly ZERO financial reason or excuse to trade him either. CNBC’s ‘official sports empire valuations’ just tabbed the value of Henry and Fenway Sports Group at $14.19 BILLION (with a B). That ranks 4th in the world behind just The Kroenkes (Rams/Nuggets+), The Jones (Cowboys), and Josh Harris/Davis Blitzer (Commanders/76ers+).

I’m not ready to buy into this Red Sox surge. They beat up on bad teams and face a tougher schedule coming out of the All-Star break, where they crashed out a season ago. I won't be surprised if they’re fighting to stay over .500 by the deadline. Even then, you can argue they should be buyers.

But if they’re in a fight for the division at that point? I mean, there is absolutely no excuse not to make real additions. And if they don’t, then like those annoying fast honkers, they’re the bad guys.

Also, if you’re one of those people who moves over to the side of the road for a police car or an ambulance, and then tries to speed up and PASS other cars that pulled over in front of you…yup, you’re in the club, too—more next week in my new newsletter, Talkin’ Traffic.

Meanwhile, we’re getting some legislative pushback on a terrible sports betting tax change. Tucker Carlson attacks the sports betting industry. And Barstool Sports inexplicably leaves one of its biggest stars out of a major golf event.

All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.

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On fighting back against the terrible sports betting tax change…

“I think it has the potential of really curtailing the number of people in the United States that are playing professionally or semi-professionally. Or using money from gambling for a big part of their income. And I think that’s really where people are feeling like the sky is falling.” - Gambling journalist and author David Hill.

I spent a lot of time on this issue in last week’s newsletter, and I’m glad I did - this is a big deal.

As a brief refresher, a new tax provision in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act means that gamblers could still owe money to the IRS in years when they broke even or were slight losers. That’s because the provision only allows you to deduct 90% of your losses against your winnings, rather than a complete 100%. This doesn’t make any sense. It’s bad for professional sports bettors and could push many of them to the offshore, unregulated markets, resulting in a significant impact on the industry. Even if you’re a casual bettor, there will be an impact on the sports you bet on and the games you play.

The President signed the bill on Friday. On Monday, Rep. Dina Titus moved forward with her own bill, the FAIR BET Act.

"My FAIR BET Act would rightly restore the full deduction for losses, so gamblers don't pay taxes on money they haven't won," Titus said in a news release. "This common-sense legislation will bring fairness back to gaming taxation, making sure that gamblers can fully deduct their losses when they report their winnings.

"It gives everyone – from recreational gamblers to high-stakes gamblers – a fair shake. We should be encouraging players to properly report their winnings and [to] wager using legal operators. The Senate change [to the OBBB] will only push people to not report their winnings and to use unregulated platforms."

On Thursday, we saw a FULL HOUSE Act originate from the Senate side. To the best of my understanding, this bill seeks the same outcome as the FAIR BET Act and would reinstate the full 100% offset. They even attempted to fast-track the bill through a process called unanimous consent, but Sen. Todd Young (IN) blocked it by trying to add his own provision to the bill. Thanks, Todd.

So that’s one bill from the House, one from the Senate, both with bipartisan support, trying to eliminate what is a dumb provision that attacks gamblers.

There are plenty of theories as to how this even found its way into the OBBBA. One of those suggests that gamblers overreport their losses, and that reducing the deduction from 100% to 90% will increase federal tax revenues. Another says that the sportsbooks pushed for this new provision because it will send their big winning customers to offshore books, where tax reporting could be more ‘relaxed.’ Pushing away the winning bettors and keeping the losing ones would be a net win for the sportsbooks.

But if left unchanged, this provision will affect ANYONE who likes to gamble. And not in a good way. Take this example from ‘Jack Andrews’ of Unabated -

"Let's say you go to Vegas, you're playing a slot machine, you get lucky and win $5,000. So you get a W-2G form. You'll need to declare that W-2G on your taxes," he said. "Now, suppose you're someone who gets significantly lucky and wins $20,000 worth of W-2Gs.

"Then suppose you chase it and lose back the $20,000. Since you have $20,000 in W-2Gs, you're forced to itemize and can take only $18,000 (90%) as a deduction. That's $2,000 in income, on which you have to pay taxes."

Pretty dumb.

As a recreational gambler and sports bettor, I'm biased, but this whole thing feels like an attack on gambling in general. One member of the Finance Committee was asked about the provision and admitted, “I don’t know anything about it. I’m not sure what it does.” Your elected officials at work!

Even with two separate bills attempting to roll back this change, it could take some time; weeks, months, and maybe even into next year. And that’s significant, seeing as the new provisions kick in on Jan 1, 2026.

If you’re motivated, you can always reach out to the elected officials in your area. I did that last week and got a sweet auto-response a few minutes later, saying in part, “A Member of our team will look into your message and follow up as soon as they can.”

I’m not holding my breath.

We can only hope that the right lobbyists get in the ears of the right lawmakers and explain how silly this is, or we risk a major shift in the sports betting and gambling landscape in the United States.

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On the Celtics going ‘full tank’…

So this came up last week with The Big O.

And I generally agree with him. Tanking with this group next year does not make much sense. Sitting Jaylen Brown and asking Joe Mazzulla not to win as many games as possible feels like it could have long-term adverse effects on the team. There’s one caveat, which I’ll get to in a second.

Buried in the final minutes of the “Hoops Collective” podcast was this quote from ESPN’s Brian Windhorst as part of a conversation about the Celtics.

“I have talked to other teams that have said the Celtics are actively trying to trade Anfernee Simons…Whether they can or not is another thing.”

It led to a suggestion that the team try to really bottom out and find themselves in the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery.

I don’t see it. New owners, a legit star player in Brown, an all-star caliber player in Derrick White, and a maniac for a coach…yeah, the full tank seems very unlikely, even if Simons is dealt as a way to shed more payroll. Stevens mentioned new owner Bill Chisholm by name this week.

"Bill has been pretty clear from the get-go that he wants to make sure that we're prioritizing basketball assets and the ability to retool this thing at the highest level that we can," Stevens told the media this week. "The most important acquisition that we're going to be able to make in the next couple of years is getting Tatum out of a [walking] boot. We're not beating that one. So that's going to be the best thing that can happen for us."

Even with a Simons trade, the team is too good and the Eastern Conference is too weak to tank.

The ONLY path to a lottery pick via the full tank would be an injury to Brown. Or White. Or both. The team could take their time with rehab and quietly lose their way into a top pick. Fans would be okay with that, and the new owner would not take much heat for a lost year, in that scenario.

But healthy? No full tank. Just a Gap Year waiting for Tatum to return and for Stevens to build out the team’s next contending roster.

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On Tucker Carlson’s anti-sports betting rant…

I am a Tucker Carlson fan. I’m looking forward to listening to his conversation with The Maine Wire’s Steve Robinson on The Takeover of Maine by Chinese Drug Cartels. Anyone who leaves traditional media to blaze their own path is okay with me, and Tucker has done that (And so has Robinson).

But, when he asked on a recent episode of his podcast, somewhat rhetorically, “Why do people pay their gambling debts?” it becomes clear that he’s not super-informed about sports betting in the United States. Here, in the mobile sportsbook era, you must first deposit your hard-earned money before you can bet it. Like, DraftKings isn’t chasing you down to collect on all your losing Same Game Parlays every week.

But as part of a larger conversation about America, debt, credit cards, and the evils of technology, sports betting found itself in the crosshairs of Carlson and guest Saagar Enjeti. Enjeti seemed much more informed on the topic, and you can watch the 10-minute segment above. If you’re interested in the subject, I suggest you do.

“It’s the next opioid epidemic,” Enjeti declares in the segment. “Tens of millions of Americans are borderline addicted (to sports betting) right now,” he added. “It’s ruining the game.”

The pair goes on to call commercial sports books “predators.”

At no point does either host bring up personal responsibility or being accountable for your own actions. It’s all about the big, bad sports betting machine and young, adult men that they think are too stupid to know what they’re doing.

There is one part that Enjeti nails, and that’s the idea that betting with these big commercial sportsbooks is, in part, a rigged game.

“And what makes the story (of sports betting) even crazier is that FanDuel and DraftKings have a legal right, in the way that they run their business, where Tucker, you and I, if we were actually good at sports gambling, they would effectively ban us from the platform. They would no longer allow us to place bets larger than, say, $1.20. And the reason why is, their algorithms are detectable for anyone who is actually gambling smart. And so they will immediately ban you from being able to bet any sizeable portion of money.”

Enjeti is right. I’ve written about this for over a year here; big winners get banned, while big losers get VIP Hosts and juicy promotional deals. And winners don’t even get an explanation for why they’re banned or limited.

The Massachusetts Gaming Commission tried to address this issue last year, and even requested more information from the sportsbooks about why they were limiting winning players but rewarding losing ones. As of April 2025, the MGC says they have some data, but they are still looking for a professional to help sort through it. I’m hopeful they follow through with their plans to investigate this practice fully.

Tucker has a monster platform and real influence over lawmakers in this country. Hopefully, this point from Enjeti about sports betting’s uneven playing field hits home to some of them.

Because, yes, much of what the podcast said about sports betting and its evils was hyperbolic and painted sports bettors as victims; this particular issue should be addressed. As should the odds of the book’s pre-made, one-click, same-game parlays, but that’s for a different newsletter.

Betting on sports - and winning - is hard. Sportsbooks should not be allowed to make it even more difficult by banning winners and aggressively marketing to losers.

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On your MutStack Notes…

• Boston loved Lyndon Byers. From his time on the ice battling for the Bruins to his time behind the microphone for The Greg Hill Show on WAAF, LB was easy to relate to and someone you rooted for. So it was no surprise to see the outpouring of love when the news of his death became public last week.

His longtime co-host on WAAF, Danielle Murr, gave a beautiful tribute to LB on social media.

In just one example of how nice of a guy LB was, he would stick around after his own morning drive radio show (6-10 AM) to do Bruins segments with Lou and me on Mut and Merloni. And sometimes he had to wait an hour or more before he came on. I’m sure he wasn’t thrilled to stick around and help out a middling midday show on a different radio station, but he’d never complain, was full of energy when he came on, and always made us laugh. In my interactions with him, he was nothing but a great guy.

Condolences to LB’s family and friends.

⛳ I’ll admit, I always thought it was some long-game podcast/Barstool Sports bit.

When Dave Portnoy announced that Barstool would host a huge golf event, The Internet Invitational, Kirk Minihane was not listed as a participant. It became a topic on Kirk’s show and The Unnamed Show, resulting in great content. But in the back of my mind, I assumed that it would lead to Kirk being in the field once it was officially announced. I mean, his match at the Writer Cup vs. Portnoy has almost a million views on YouTube. Same for his best moments in Barstool mini golf events, in back-to-back years. It didn’t make any sense not to include him in the field.

Well, the official roster for the event was released on Wednesday.

The Jet? In.
The Duke? Of course, The Duke made the cut.
That guy who says, “What’s up, brotherrrrrrrrrrrr?” Yep, Sketch made the official roster.

Alas, no Minihane. Just a wild miss by the people involved in producing this thing. I don’t watch any golf content creator videos, but I do like drama. And Kirk would have provided that. Maybe that’s why he’s not involved, and The Duke got the call instead.

👀 This post from former Sports Radio WEEI/Comcast Sports TV host Greg Dickerson was tough. Greg was a guest of the MutStack Podcast last August, where he admitted it had been years since he talked to his longtime radio and TV partner, Gary Tanguay.

“I haven’t talked to Tanguay in probably eight years now,” Dickerson told me on the podcast. “I don’t know what happened…I honestly don’t know what it was. I must have said or done something… we have absolutely zero relationship. We don’t talk, we don’t text, nothing. I don’t know what it was.”

He went on to say that it was silly, but he “was afraid” to reach out to Tanguay. In talking to Greg again this week, I got the sense that not much had changed, and he has yet to reach out to his old friend, even after the post above.

Dickerson and Tanguay were a great team, both on the radio and on the old Mohegan Sun New England Sports Tonight TV show. Greg was in Gary’s wedding as an usher!

I don’t know what happened, and admittedly, I didn’t reach out to Gary to get his side of this story. Maybe there is a bigger problem here that Greg does not want to admit. But he was pretty honest about his own issues on the podcast. I’m not sure why he’d lie about his frayed friendship with Gary. But I hope at some point, one of them reaches out to the other—life is too short.

🏇🏻 While racetracks and casinos try desperately to push the horseplayer away, Mohegan Sun continues to welcome them in and reward them. On Saturday, July 26, the same day they’ll sponsor the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, Mohegan Sun will host a Race Players Appreciation Day in the FanDuel Sportsbook. They’ll be giving away thousands of dollars in wagering vouchers, just for betting on Saratoga with them. There’ll be giveaways and deals all day, and some very sharp guest handicappers. It’s going to be a fun day, and I hope to see you there.

🎙️ I did end up publishing The MutStack Podcast with The Big O in the podcast feed here and on Spotify. I wanted to have it there, and wish I had done that with the Dickerson podcast last summer.

And with that, I believe we have said it all.

Good luck with all your Scottish Open and Saratoga bets this weekend. I will have Saratoga coverage here this summer, but not this weekend. Jim Dandy Day and Travers Day, for sure.

And thanks for reading.