Friday Four-Pack 8.16.24
Friday Four-Pack 8.16.24
More Drake Maye! DraftKings punts on their proposed betting surcharge. A very questionable horse race you have to see. Notes!
Just kidding!
Look, I’ve made some bad decisions in my life. If we’re being honest, I’m guessing we all have.
In the case of DraftKings and their betting proposed surcharge, an obvious bad decision was followed by an equally obvious good one.
Less than two weeks after announcing plans to add a roughly 3% “tax” to all winning bets placed by their customers in some states, DraftKings abruptly decided to scrap their plans to alter the sports betting landscape in the United States.
It was a really bad idea. From the start.
And it hinged on their main competition, FanDuel, adding a similar surcharge.
We found out this week that was unlikely to happen.
FanDuel said Tuesday it would likewise skip the surcharge, instead offsetting the impact of high state taxes with more locally tailored marketing and promotions. The company anticipates a $40 million net impact in the second half of 2024.
Both Rush Street and Penn Gaming had already said they would not follow DraftKings’ lead and pass along the burden of a high tax rate to their winning customers. Once FanDuel joined them, DraftKings had no choice but to punt.
That doesn’t mean customers in those states with a higher tax rate won’t see changes in their betting menus.
This is the most likely change - we see bigger holds on all bets - including same-game parlays.
Right now, most NFL lines are -110. DraftKings could probably move to -112 and stay competitive with FanDuel.
All of this conversation - on surcharges, tax rates, and hold % - comes at a time when it is getting tougher than ever to actually WIN betting on sports.
From a Slate column this week titled “The Golden Age of Sports Betting is Over.”
But sportsbooks have lost money in the gold rush to recruit new bettors, and only a few of them are on solid financial footing. Regulators have kept a watchful eye over them. Now the sportsbooks have decided they’d like to actually make some money, and they have pared back their promotional offerings to spend less on “customer acquisition.” The little carrots designed to make betting a friendly financial proposition are dulling or just going away, and they’ll only come back in limited circumstances when new states legalize the industry. There’s not much meat left on that bone. The halcyon days are over, and for the first time since its widespread legalization, sports betting is getting noticeably worse.
Some headline hyperbole? Maybe. But the reality is betting on sports and winning is hard. Harder than ever. And as the sportsbooks start prioritizing profits over player acquisition, it will only get harder. It will be more important than ever to get the best of it when firing off your sports bets.
That means getting the best odds available to you on your bet, even if it means having funds in every legal account where you live. It means taking advantage of every bonus offer..if there are any left. And it for sure means using whatever information you can to make yourself sharper than the field.
This is all stuff we have harped on and written about for over a year: stuff we started talking about on WEEI years ago. And we’ll continue to talk about it through the football season. Which is basically already here.
So, no surcharge…for now. But the sportsbooks are clearly looking for ways to get more of your money. And we’ll continue to take a stand against it here when they do.
Meanwhile, Drake Maye looked great. A big story in sports betting media. And a very questionable horse race.
All part of today’s Four-Pack.
I never did catch Zappe Fever.
Hand up, I was a Mac Jones guy.
MutStack was a Mac Jones Substack.
So I was vaccinated against any strains of that disgusting Zappe Fever - the one that forced grown men to buy the jersey of a backup quarterback and chant his name at Gillette Stadium - I was vaccinated from that by the intoxicating whiff of potential there was in Mac Jones.
Does Mac Jones just stink? Maybe. Probably. But his presence here in New England protected me from cheering for a guy who will clear waivers and be on the Pats practice squad in two weeks. Zero Zappe Fever.
But whatever it is that makes you see a quarterback for a quarter and a half of a preseason football game and decide you have to see more of that guy and your team is moronic for not wanting to start him Week 1…yeah I have some symptoms. And I’m guessing much of Pats Nation feels the same way Friday morning.
We need More Maye.
In a vacuum, Drake Maye’s performance on Thursday against the Eagles was good. The numbers (6 of 11, 47 yards + a rushing TD) don’t provide a complete picture of how well the 21-year-old played.
He showed off a big arm - his best two throws were not even completed passes but they should have been. The deep shot to Javon Baker that he dropped. And the nice sideline pass where Baker got pushed out of bounds. It took like two series to see he has a bigger arm than Mac.
He showed off mobility - note the designed run for the touchdown. There’s been reporting on Maye’s basketball background/athleticism and he looked like a natural runner Thursday. Some quarterbacks have their running style described as ‘lumbering.’ Drake Maye does NOT lumber.
He showed good poise and athleticism in the pocket that helped him avoid trouble. My favorite Maye play of the night was when the Eagles sent a free rusher to his left that should have been an easy sack with Maye coming off a play-action fake. Instead, Maye was able to make a quick throw on the run, going to his left. I’m not comparing him to Josh Allen….but that looked like a play Josh Allen makes. Just sayin’.
He was really good.
NOW…add in the fact that his OL probably stinks. That he has not had many reps this season with the starters. That the narrative leading into the game was how bad the team had looked against the Eagles: Greg Bedard called the offense an “absolute trainwreck” a few days ago at one of the sessions. The deck was stacked against the kid making much of an impact…and he still played well.
We need More Maye.
The logical thing is to sit Maye to start the season and let him ease into the role of Next Franchise Quarterback. It’s logical to think the team is in tank rebuild mode and Jacoby Brissett is the perfect quarterback for a tanking rebuilding team. But Zappe Fever wasn’t logical and neither is this.
More. Maye.
The coach and general manager might push back against it…but what about the owner? It has been a rough stretch for the Krafts. Brady won a Super Bowl in Tampa. Their fingerprints were all over the bad press for Bill Belichick after his exit. Bill, for the most part, took the high road. The Krafts could use a ‘W” in the court of public football opinions.
Does playing Maye give them that, even if the Mayo and Wolf disagree? Would they ultimately play the ownership card and get involved with Maye’s timeline?
The fans will be there for More Maye. Maybe the owners will be there, too.
Me? I saw enough. Assuming the offensive line can protect to an even adequate level, play the kid. He’s mobile enough to avoid total disaster, based on Thursday night. Does it make complete football sense? Nope. But I’m in.
More. Maye.
Other Game Thoughts!™️ from Thursday night…
Week 2 of the “ZoCast” with Scott Zolak leading the McCourty Twins in the broadcast booth was much better than Week 1. Zolak sounded more comfortable running the show. He tried and bailed on detailed play-by-play early, but he identified new players and big plays much better than last week. He even mentioned the opposing team’s quarterback on their first drive! Brian Hoyer was less involved early, allowing Zo + McCourty Twins to do their own thing, with Zo as the ‘host.’ I’m not convinced it’s the best setup Kraft Sports + Entertainment could have put together, but credit to Zo and the producers for adjusting after Week 1.
The Pats WRs might not stink.
The Steve Burton/Rhamondre Stevenson sideline interview is worth watching if you bailed on the game early. 👀👀👀
More. Maye.
There were some real positives for Patriots fans after what has been an inauspicious preseason to date.
On the trade of Matthew Judon…
Then there’s this debacle.
I’m going to try and ignore the shiny object being dangled in front of us with this trade. You should too.
The bright and shiny object in this case is the amazing return the Patriots received in the Matthew Judon trade, which netted them a third-round draft pick from the Atlanta Falcons. Phil Perry of NBC Sports Boston had the details -
"I talked to a couple executives just tonight, about an hour or so ago, one of them used the word 'shocked' to describe the return that the Patriots got. (They) figured it would be a later-round pick," Perry said Wednesday night.
"I think even the Patriots, if you gave them some truth serum, were surprised that they ended up getting a third-round pick for Matthew Judon. So, the pick was valuable enough that you sort of had to make the deal."
Maybe it’s great value, but it should not overshadow two more important points on the trade and the team’s roster.
This situation was handled pretty terribly by the entire organization. They knew all offseason the player was not happy with this current deal. Rather than get something done then - either by trading him or extending his deal - they let it spill into training camp.
The team lets Judon speak to the media early in camp and he immediately confirms he does not believe his scheduled salary for the 2024 season is equal to his talent. It then leads to Judon parking himself on a trash can during the team’s first padded practice - a loud and public ‘middle finger’ to the team and the coach.
He eventually returns to practice and the coach has to come out and say he had a “great meeting” with the disgruntled player.
Then weeks before the season, they finally make a move. At this point, we can all see this is a massive rebuild. It would have made more sense to have traded the player before the draft and given the team a small jumpstart to that rebuild, in the form of a 2024 draft pick.
Maybe the end return is “shocking” to some executives, but the writing was on the wall for a while for Judon and the team…why did they wait so long to pull the trigger on what looked like the obvious move and result?There is just so little high-end talent on this team. Last month, Aaron Schatz listed each team’s “Blue Chip Players” under the age of 25. Drake Maye and Christian Gonzalez are the only two to make the cut for the Patriots, who were ranked 25 in the NFL based on their younger talent.
Judon does not qualify since he’s 32, but he was one of the team’s true Blue Chip Players. Rather than pay him, they were okay dealing him for a draft pick. I would not bet on that pick being better value than what Judon gave the team as a free agent signing from Baltimore.
They have plenty of money to sign Judon - the move gives the team $59 million in salary cap space - most in the NFL.
This post from Establish the Run’s Adam Levitan got major pushback from Pats fans for calling the team’s roster “the worst in the NFL,” but he’s right. And look, it’s probably part of some “plan” to tank in 2024, but it doesn't make it less true.
It was a bad roster before the trade and it was made worse by dealing Judon.
Drake Maye’s performance Thursday night put a positive spin on what was a mostly bad week for the Patriots.
On a wild horse race…
I mean, this looks pretty sketchy.
The #3 gets a terrible start. The #4 bolts on the turn and takes himself out of it. “Oh, wow the #3 is going to end up winning this,” was my reaction and I’m sure the reaction of many others.
I was NOT prepared for the final half-furlong, where the #3 appears to hit the breaks and the 24-1 shot in a four-horse field shoots up the rail to get the money.
Say what you want about sports betting, but it’s provided a mechanism to review questionable situations, like Jontay Porter player prop unders.
Shady results or just plain old bad race riding, if horse racing is serious about keeping its sport on the level, this will be reviewed and investigated.
By Belterra Park. By The Jockey Club. By HISA. There will be a report and a statement by everyone involved. Not providing that to your customers makes it look like you’re trying to hide something.
As of Friday morning, there has not been. Not a great look for racing.
On your Friday MutStack Notes…
The biggest news in sports media this week was ESPN firing both Robert Griffin III and Sam Ponder just weeks before the NFL season.
The biggest news in sports betting media was the announcement that Ken Barkley was leaving Nick Kostos and the popular sports betting afternoon show, You Better, You Bet.” It is a show that is so popular that one commenter here at MutStack.com suggested just last week that WEEI make it their afternoon show.
The mix of actionable betting advice with the elements of a classic sports talk show made this version of You Better You Bet the gold standard for sports betting shows. The chemistry between Nick and Ken was a big reason why.
Rather than try and recreate that show and chemistry, Kostos promised listeners a new version of the show with a new co-host, set to be announced officially on Monday, August 26.
Kostos is asking his audience to “trust him” with this new show. Given his success and passion for the space, it’s hard not to.
Barkley - who comes across as one of the most thoughtful, non-nonsense voices in sports betting media - is leaving the content game and is going to focus just on his own sports betting. Hope he crushes it.Back in May, ZERO legal sportsbooks operating in Massachusetts accepted invitations to join the Massachusetts Gaming Commission’s public hearing on how and why they limit winning players. We found out Thursday they’re going to try it again, sometime before October 1. "I hope, no, I expect, every operator will engage in this discussion with us," MGC Chair Jordan Maynard said during a scheduled meeting on Thursday. This could have a major impact on sports betting in the United States and will be worth watching, whenever it eventually happens.
Boston Herald Red Sox reporter Gabrielle Starr posted on X.com Monday, "Per source, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has requested a meeting with the Red Sox regarding the Jarren Duran incident." Duran was caught on camera using an anti-gay slur and was suspended by the team for two games. Mayor Wu requesting a meeting with the team would be a big deal if it happened.
Her office said it did not.
“Completely made up.” Yikes. Starr deleted the post, but it was a big miss. I’m curious if the Herald will have a comment on this at some point. They should, given the response harsh from Wu’s office.
We have for sure said it all.
Big weekend upstate as they’ll run the Alabama Stakes on Saturday at Saratoga - we’ll have some ideas for that race and tomorrow’s card in the Saratoga Stack. Hope to publish mid-morning, likely before scratches. And expect expanded Saratoga coverage next week for the 2024 Travers. Looks like a great race.
If anyone needs me, I’ll be on the beach dominating my family in KanJam for a few days.
Good luck with all your bets. Thanks for reading.
Good weekend.
