Friday Four-Pack 8.22.25
Pats leap more about Maye than Vrabel. Some interesting mailbag questions. Felger's weird relationship with his co-workers. It's Travers Week!
A Travers Week tradition unlike any other - me telling you the best part of Saratoga Race Course is being there in the morning before the races start.
Okay, that’s a lie.
The best part is being there with friends and family in the afternoon, cashing big winners at a picnic table in the backyard. BUT…a close second is Breakfast at Saratoga. Open most days at 7 AM, free to come in before the races, and super family-friendly, it gets a strong MutStack push.
When you’re here, the multitude of issues that face horse racing all become background noise. CAWs, cheating trainers, clueless racing executives, terrible stewards' decisions…sure, they’re still there, but they take a back seat for a bit. Well, until another NYRA exacta comes in light thanks to the computers, and you’re left muttering expletives under your breath.
Saratoga is special. And the place is packed with license plates from Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Vermont, and Connecticut. These plates litter the local parking lots all summer and serve as a reminder that if you’re looking for thoroughbred racing, Saratoga Springs has become the home track for New Englanders.
Suffolk Downs, closed. Rockingham Park, gone, now a humongous shopping and living center. Great Barrington, Narragansett Park, the old Massachusetts Fair Circuit…long, long gone.
The first racetrack I ever visited was Saratoga. One trip here with a few old radio colleagues and I was hooked. But I’d bet many more people had their first track visit to places like Suffolk Downs; that was their entry to the game. As all these smaller tracks close, there’s less of a chance to develop new fans. Betting on the races on your phone is convenient, but being at a place like Saratoga to see it live is an experience.
The live action. The energy. The characters - the race track attracts some interesting people. None of that plays well, if at all, on your iPhone.
It’s not just New England. Bay Meadows and Hollywood Park in California. Arlington Park outside of Chicago. These tracks were located in significant metropolitan areas and now…just no longer exist. All these closures make it harder to create new fans, and that’s a problem for the game that doesn’t get talked about enough. Add it to the list above of all the issues facing the sport in 2025.
But this weekend, for a few days? That’s background noise. The focus will be on the great racing and a Travers that features the best horse of his generation looking to put on a show late Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, I have what might be a pretty obvious Pats take. It’s hard to pick against the favorite in the Travers. The MutStack Mailbag returns, along with a media-heavy MutStack Notes.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
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On a quick and maybe obvious Patriots point…
I didn’t watch much of the Pats game Thursday. Sorry, no Ben Wooldridge takes from me. But I was curious to see if Amazon made any changes to the broadcast, given that the Netflix NFL games were so much better than theirs last season.
I caught this in open from Al and Kirk, with Michaels asking Herbstreit to make the case for the Patriots being a “significantly better” team this season.
“I think you just gotta say Mike Vrabel,” was Herbstreit’s short answer.
And like, I get it. Mike Vrabel is a better coach than Jerod Mayo. A lot of coaches (most, if not all) would have been an upgrade over Mayo. I like the stuff I’ve seen from Vrabel this summer. He’s jumping into piles with opposing players. He’s being a dink to Ben Volin. His team out-played the Vikings on both sides of the ball last Saturday, and did so with a real physical edge. These are all good things. The Patriots will be functionally better this year because they’ll have an actual head coach on their sideline.
But for them to be significantly better this season? That will be tied into how well Drake Maye plays in Year Two.
There’s a limit to just how much better Vrabel or any head coach can make a team. You might win what, two or three more games, thanks to a new coach? You can only do so much from the sideline. But with a significant improvement at the most crucial position in all of sports, you’re talking four, five, maybe six game improvements.
This is not to shit on Bill Belichick, but we saw this right in front of our own eyes for two decades with Tom Brady- the quarterback is more impactful than the head coach.
They’ll be better for having Vrabel there instead of Mayo. But this season, if they’re going to be significantly better, we’ll be talking about how much better Year Two Drake Maye is. I’m surprised the former quarterback Herbstreit pushed Vrabel as his answer.
Is Maye ready to make that leap? I don’t know. But I’m not prepared for this crap in August.
We’ll have a whole season to analyze his play. And if he plays a lot better, it will have a bigger impact on the team than the new head coach.
We’ll go on the record with some actual Pats Predictions over the next few weeks.
As for the Amazon Prime NFL product…yeah, Netflix is just much better. I thought Amazon might upgrade after Netflix debuted to so much fanfare last year, but based on Thursday night, it was just more of the same. Not great.
On the 156th running of the Travers at Saratoga…
The 2024 running of the Travers had the distinction of being the most competitive edition of the race I’d ever seen.
A year later, the 2025 Travers gets the award for the least competitive field I’ve ever seen for the Mid-Summer Derby.
And it’s too bad. It’s been a good year for three-year-olds. Between Sovereignty, Journalism, and Baeza, the top of the class has been especially good. So to get just the Derby/Belmont winner into the gate for the Travers is disappointing. It sounds like Baeza will headline a deep Pennsylvania Derby field, but it would have been nice to see him here. Seeing Burnahm Square and Sandman show up as possibles for that ridiculous turf race at Kentucky Downs rather than in Saratoga is much more annoying.
Rather than a collection of the best three-year-olds meeting to close out the summer, it feels like a Sovereignty Coronation Party.
Thankfully, there will be other chances to make some money on a loaded Travers Day card. I’ll have full-card ideas and picks tomorrow in a special Saratoga Stack - Travers Edition.
As for the Travers -
#1 Magnitude (2-1) - The buzz on track the last few days has been this guy; that he’s going to the lead and take them all the way for the upset win. The Risen Star win looked shaky at the time, but that race has produced a few runners. He beat no one in Iowa last time. No doubt he’s sitting on a huge effort, and he’s the best of this crop that Sovereignty has not bested, yes. Here’s the issue…
#2 Bracket Buster (20-1) - …this guy is the issue. His only chance is to be involved early. With jockey Luis Saez aboard, the intent is clear - they’ll be going. Magnitude’s best races have come alone on the lead, and he’s not getting that today with Buster involved. Timeform says this one is quicker early, but I could see both horses battling early. Both horses being in here hurts the chances of either one wiring the field.
#3 Strategic Focus (6-1) - Blinkers go on for this Chad Brown runner after hitting the gate at the break in his last two starts. Trainer’s numbers just 1 for 14 making this move in graded stakes races, but note that lone win was Sierra Leone getting blinkers in last year’s Risen Star. Slow on speed figures, but if he breaks well, he might sit a good trip. Jockey Prat has nine wins (9 for 28) with Chad the last 20 days, and he’s been riding lights out. If I were playing exactas (I probably won’t be), this guy would be my partner with the favorite.
#4 Sovereignty (2/5) - And here’s the favorite. Best of his age group, he scared off the competition and for good reason. Already 2 for 2 at the distance, it looked like he was just getting going in the final furlong of the Jim Dandy. Reportedly working well, and Mott has had this spot pointed out for months. The only loss in 2025 was when he was not fully cranked in that Florida Derby and ran into Tappan Street. Benefits from any speed duel between the two inside runners and is simply the horse to beat.
#5 McAfee (20-1) - This half-brother to superstar Thorpedo Anna is 0 for 6 in races longer than six furlongs. Doesn’t this guy get caught up with the other speeds, assuming they’re trying to win the race? Went from Kentucky to Ohio, back to Kentucky, then to West Virginia, then back to Kentucky … and now here. Credit to the connections for lining up here, but it's tough to make a real case.
I hate to eat the chalk in a spot like this, but Sovereignty is fast, has been pointed here for months, will get a good setup, and is facing a weak field. Unless the track is playing to speed on Saturday and/or Bracket Buster gets scratched, I’ll be single ‘A” here in the Late Pick 5.
We’ll go through the rest of the card tomorrow morning. It’s a great betting card, even if this race isn’t a great betting race.
On your MutStack Mailbag Questions…
A Travers Week mailbag for the people. A sampling of the questions - thanks to everyone who sent one in.
When will you get a real job? - KickStand68
Again, a bunch like this. Newsletter publisher. Event host/Emcee. Paddock handicapper. Soon to be a daily podcast host. What more do you people want?
Do you think Dan Hurley's sideline behavior is pathetic? - FloatieLive
If Dan Hurley weren't UConn's coach, would you think he's an a-hole like the rest of America?- Bama Bob
Some bad calls went against his team, but I thought his antics last year in Maui, where he was constantly showing up the officials, were rough. Other than that, he’s been a wildly entertaining and successful head coach for the best basketball program in the country. And quite frankly, he’s one of the best personalities in all of sports. Scratch that, one of the best human beings on the planet.
And I’m not just saying that so he’ll come on Locked on UConn to talk about his book when it comes out next month.
Ik u have discussed caws, but do u have a comment on the after-the-gate caw action that is obviously happening - margretssong
Yeah, the CAW thing is not going away (more on this below).
As far as betting after the gates open, I wrote about the race at Finger Lakes that I think you’re alluding to last week. It doesn't look good. In this case, it seems like some bettors were able to cancel bets after the jock fell off as the gates opened. Mike Maloney has written about ‘past post’ betting before, and he wrote about the Finger Lakes issues, “Very damming evidence and not an isolated incident. But the suits tell us the wagering pools are secure.” This is a guy who was betting millions of dollars a year on horses for over a decade. So yes, I think it’s probably happening at some tracks. How much, I don’t know.
It’s concerning that, as best I can tell, there has been no investigation into the Finger Lakes race. Racing needs to look into these issues, especially since people are betting real money on the results.
Are you going to PA Derby again? - Colin S
Indeed, Colin, I’m headed back to Bensalem, PA, next month to do some paddock hosting and handicapping for Pennsylvania Derby Day. Parx added a PA Bred card the day before, so I’ll be lucky to work that one, too. I look forward to putting on my best Milton’s suit and being live in the paddock all day.
For as short as the Travers field is, it looks like the PA Derby field will be a good one, led by Baeza. It’s a long shot, but don’t completely rule out our Journalism coming East for that one…
When your oldest son gets addicted to gambling well before hitting 21…. What do you think will be the first thing he pawns? - FlaxenMage
By teaching him how to handicap the races, I’m teaching him math. I’m teaching him value. I’m teaching him budgeting. I’m teaching him risk-reward. These are valuable lessons for any child - or adult - to learn in life. Also, he had the winner in the 10th on Thursday and is flush for Travers Weekend.
So, I guess my question is, how far do you think the Sox can make it? A follow-up would be your hopes for the offseason. - Jeremy L
Sports! Thank you, Jeremy. Their ceiling is capped by not getting a #2 starter at the deadline. Even in the win on Thursday, Lucas Giolito was pretty shaky. I guess they could win a Wild Card round, especially if they get the #4 seed and host two of those three games at Fenway, but that’s about it. In the offseason, get Joe Ryan. Pretty simple.
Also, the three-game Wild Card series is dumb. MLB had a good thing with those one-game, win-or-go-home Wild Card games. That format was much better.
Is your bald head just a solar panel for your sex machine?
I think that’s enough MutStack Mailbag for today. Appreciate all the great questions.
On your MutStack Notes…
Credit to BostonMedia781 on X.com for the clip
🗣️ So yeah, Mike Felger and Jim Murray admitted this week on the Felger and Mazz Off-Air Show that they don’t talk much…off the air. Not just them, but their whole show.
And yes, I find it weird.
It’s weird that Murray found out on the air that Felger had a bad bike accident and had to be airlifted off Nantucket to a Boston hospital. Like, I don’t expect the show to be talking a lot of sports off the air, but something like that? How was it not mentioned?
Maybe it’s healthy for them - or any coworkers - not to be friends? But yeah, I found this odd. But watch the clip, the guys clearly see nothing weird about it.
💰 I got tagged in this a few times yesterday. America’s most popular horseplayer, Dave Portnoy, continues to rip the low exacta payouts at Saratoga. As I’ve written more than a few times, the Computer Assisted Wagering (CAW) groups are HEAVY in the exactas in NY, playing as many combos as their models tell them are worth playing. The obvious combos get hit hard, but so do the lower % combos like this one. Because they’re getting good rebates (better than you and me), they’re just trying to cover as many combos as they can, thus lowering the payouts for everyone.
Like Dave, I love playing exactas, but it’s just not been worth it this summer.
The best pools to play in at Saratoga are the Win Pool, the Daily Double Pool, and the Late Pick 5 - all of which have less CAW play than the others. Just look at some of the generous win prices yesterday - there’s nothing wrong with betting to win.
🎙️🏇🏻 If you’re really interested in this stuff and want an expert deep dive on CAW play, the podcast Bet with The Best and host Chris Larmey did a two-part episode this week with horse owner and economist Marshall Gramm. There’s a lot of math and modeling talk, but I don’t think there has ever been a deep dive like this, in audio form. Again, if you’re interested, I cannot recommend it enough. You can find it at this link.
🏇🏻 The Barstool Crew will be back at Saratoga for a second straight year, streaming live all day on Travers. Great for racing and will bring new eyeballs to the sport. After being hidden in the backyard last year, it sounds like they’ll be set up near the paddock on Saturday. It sounds like Dave said on The Unnamed Show that I could come on for a race, which would be fun. I have some fresh MutStack business cards to show him.
📻 Bad July book. Post Jimmy Fund Radio Telethon. Still not football season. If WEEI is going to make any changes in their lineup, next week would be the time to do it. The most likely changes will happen with WEEI Afternoons, where I’m told by one source that Nick ‘Fitzy’ Stevens is not super thrilled about his situation/role on the show. We’ll see how it plays out next week.
💰 July was a strong month for sports betting in Massachusetts. And as Bill Speros notes, DraftKings has almost 50% of the market.
⛳ It’s going to be weird when Russell Henley wires the field and wins the PGA Tour Championship after the monster year that Scottie had. But I planned to bet Russ and forgot, so he’s a lock. Glad they got rid of that terrible staggered scoring.
And with that, I believe we have said it all.
Back tomorrow with full Travers Day ideas. First race is 11:10 AM, so get some rest.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And thanks for reading.
You forgot (or maybe never even heard of) Lincoln Downs, Green Mountain Park, Berkshire Downs, Scarborough Downs, and Foxboro Raceway. I was at all of them.
- Lincoln Downs (RI) eventually became a greyhound track, but it was thoroughbreds for many years.
- Green Mountain Park (Pownal, VT) had the first Sunday racing in America and the place used to be packed on Sunday, There was even a special Sunday train from NYC to bring the track junkies up from the Big Apple. Eventually became trotters and then greyhounds.
- Berkshire Downs (Hancock, MA) had a brief run in the 60's and early 70's. According to Wikipedia, Frank Sinatra was an investor, and the mafia was involved too. Only made it there once.
- Foxboro Park (aka Bay State Raceway) - yes, mainly a harness track but it had a brief run as a thoroughbred venue in 1992 when it managed to run about 30 of 70 granted throughbred racing days before throwing in the towel.
- Scarborough Downs located just off the Maine Turnpike had, I think, the first night throughbred racing in America. I vividly remember going there at night as a teenager in the 1960's when we used to spend summers in Rye, NH.
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