Always informative and interesting but I do take exception to the constant focus on CAW groups. i.e. Korean syndicates, etc. Larger players have always received perks and rebates, but they are uniformly available to all - just get personal ROIs close to even to benefit - big deal. I'd love to hear from data driven humans like Fogle or Paine here on Sub Stack or from probably human/ maybe AI writers like Ariel Calista Miller and get their take. My take it makes little sense you are leaving a game (KD betting) due to what you perceive is a stacked deck, but you will bet on the first Pats game next week. I will let one of the probability and data experts explain that more fully as they are far sharper than me.
It's more about not wanting to support what Kentucky Downs is doing. I'm looking to support tracks that help and support the player, rather than just being greedy. Kentucky Downs could have 0% takeout based on their setup, but it's all about greed. No thanks.
Am I to understand then that you shun sports betting as well, with many books now earning "holds" at the equivalent dollars of KD takeout? If it is a takeout issue, agreed that it sucks, but there are equivalent and worse in the racing sphere today so now you have to quit them too. Funny thing, KD might give a big bettor 8-12% rebates while the sportsbook gives away 1% with caveats. The days of Rockingham Park and Green Mountain are long gone. We live in a data world now and if you don't play by those rules, you definitely are 'just playing' and not playing to win. If you cannot best a collective parimutuel pot with true multi-modal ML neural model building today, then you are not trying. I really wish one of these super analytic wizards on Sub Stack would attack this as proof of concept and to run those pesky syndicates up against the wall. That is your answer Mutt, not turning your back on the game.
The gold digger trademark rubs me the wrong way, but at the same time the fact that no one has trademarked that phrase in the arena of jewelery yet kind of puts a little bit of the culpability on us for being so naive.
Really appreciate the support. Audio podcast will be available wherever you get audio podcasts - just search Locked on UConn. Audio in the morning (by 10AM) and then YouTube at Noon.
Cora has had a good year but not an awesome weekend..Tolle should have stayed in on Friday night!
Agreed on Cora, Duran run fast. I know Duran has a contract for next year and even with a down year, he is the life of the team right now IMO. Love the rookies when they are successful and it's weird the red sox have a solid closer and ace starter. Like Cora, just gotta ignore Chapman's history.
I have yet to find a podcast I like, I assume every music app, and I have had YouTube Premium since it was called Red lol. Look out for a Banana, 👍
I am just excited you got a consistent gig now, hopefully we can slide in some baseball talk lol.
Appreciate you being the sports guy for me, like I said, ever since Mut and Merloni, I was still a teenager and now I am in my 30's.
Also, idk the comment email went to my spam but when you liked my comment the email went to my primary, I fixed it but weird shit with substack emails lately.
TJ will be out at WEEI. WEEI WILL HAVE A MIX OF BASEBALL ON DUE T0 A LONG RED SOX PLAYAOFF RUN. BC WILL WIN MORE GAMES THAN THE PATRIOTS. GOOD LUCK ON THE PODC
The CAW rants are important in many ways. I didn’t know they were allowing them till I heard it hear on the MutStack! Also, #MutSluts let’s go Sox and can’t wait for the NFL to start….good weekend
I understand why some people see what Kentucky Downs is doing as unfair. The new takeout is high, yes, but it’s still only a few points above the sportsbooks—where holds are creeping toward 15 percent, and a few points below Saratoga with respect to triples and multirace bets. What surprises me is that these CAW syndicates are still using coding techniques from 5–6 years ago, before deep ML models became ubiquitous! Beating it just means developing sharper numbers. That is easier today than it was years ago. Horseracing data is cheap, more evenly distributed than in sports, and if these new system numbers are made public via subscription, the game only gets sharper, which naturally mitigates the CAW edge. Worrying about late odds drops or sharper players existing is wasted energy, because every betting market has them. What doesn’t make sense is avoiding a pari-mutuel pool against outdated code while happily betting into sportsbooks’ massive AI models with holds nearly as high. The new game is data driven.
A true quant enters to save my inadequate explanation above! Thank you. Exactly, I grew up in Saratoga and still have a broodmare farm there so there is no need for anyone to explain to me why Mut can show pics sitting in the on-air table with a smile ear to ear. But the NYRA takeout is 4 points HIGER than KD on triples and most multi race bets (yes, 1 pt lower on WPS and .75 points lower on exactas) so the idea of being all smiles at the NYRA facility and avoiding a Kentucky facility WHEN KD does far more for horsemen (which is imp for the sport too, Mut), just seems illogical. Unless of course you factor in NYRA giving the fans that final two minutes to adjust which is far more valuable to a fair weather gambler than a true handicapper. Somebody gives me better horses, fuller races and huge incentives to bet $600,000 today versus $60, I won't be mad at them for stacking me up in a game with bettors who are marginally better prepared than the masses. If I don't suck, it is only slightly more difficult to take a share of the Korean syndicate money than it is Bernie the retirees. This whole issue is a great point for racing, and I appreciate Mut bringing it up. Can't wait to see a model builder like you step in one day and blow this up sky high. I will be first in line for that subscription to the real models. regardless of its cost.
Always informative and interesting but I do take exception to the constant focus on CAW groups. i.e. Korean syndicates, etc. Larger players have always received perks and rebates, but they are uniformly available to all - just get personal ROIs close to even to benefit - big deal. I'd love to hear from data driven humans like Fogle or Paine here on Sub Stack or from probably human/ maybe AI writers like Ariel Calista Miller and get their take. My take it makes little sense you are leaving a game (KD betting) due to what you perceive is a stacked deck, but you will bet on the first Pats game next week. I will let one of the probability and data experts explain that more fully as they are far sharper than me.
It's more about not wanting to support what Kentucky Downs is doing. I'm looking to support tracks that help and support the player, rather than just being greedy. Kentucky Downs could have 0% takeout based on their setup, but it's all about greed. No thanks.
Am I to understand then that you shun sports betting as well, with many books now earning "holds" at the equivalent dollars of KD takeout? If it is a takeout issue, agreed that it sucks, but there are equivalent and worse in the racing sphere today so now you have to quit them too. Funny thing, KD might give a big bettor 8-12% rebates while the sportsbook gives away 1% with caveats. The days of Rockingham Park and Green Mountain are long gone. We live in a data world now and if you don't play by those rules, you definitely are 'just playing' and not playing to win. If you cannot best a collective parimutuel pot with true multi-modal ML neural model building today, then you are not trying. I really wish one of these super analytic wizards on Sub Stack would attack this as proof of concept and to run those pesky syndicates up against the wall. That is your answer Mutt, not turning your back on the game.
Thank you for acknowledging the #MutSluts. Another great Stack as always.
The 30 for 30 on the KMS Fans repping #MutSluts will be something, David.
Can’t wait for that! Lol
You FINALLY get to talk some college football again! Well, it's Uconn but I guess it still counts!
Great read as always Mut. #MutSluts
Defending Fenway Bowl champs , Bama.
Isn't that like being the 3rd largest city in Rhode Island?
/Blocked
The gold digger trademark rubs me the wrong way, but at the same time the fact that no one has trademarked that phrase in the arena of jewelery yet kind of puts a little bit of the culpability on us for being so naive.
Yep. We were all asleep at the wheel, PRC.
Good stuff, Mutt!
Hey Jeff, thanks for reading a commenting really appreciate it.
As, I have mentioned before, not a big basketball fan and especially no college sports. LOL
A few questions, what time is your podcast live and/or are you able to take questions during such?
Are you going to be able to not only education me on basketball and actually get me into it? LOL
Once baseball ends, I got nothing besides football, Hockey is too fast paced for me lol. So, it would be appreciated.
Regardless, I am excited to listen to you on your own shit.
I guess I have to admit it now, begrudgingly, that Alex Cora is a good manager, no way we would be doing this good if he wasn't.
Good looks, looking forward to Monday.
Jeremy -
Really appreciate the support. Audio podcast will be available wherever you get audio podcasts - just search Locked on UConn. Audio in the morning (by 10AM) and then YouTube at Noon.
Cora has had a good year but not an awesome weekend..Tolle should have stayed in on Friday night!
Agreed on Cora, Duran run fast. I know Duran has a contract for next year and even with a down year, he is the life of the team right now IMO. Love the rookies when they are successful and it's weird the red sox have a solid closer and ace starter. Like Cora, just gotta ignore Chapman's history.
I have yet to find a podcast I like, I assume every music app, and I have had YouTube Premium since it was called Red lol. Look out for a Banana, 👍
I am just excited you got a consistent gig now, hopefully we can slide in some baseball talk lol.
Appreciate you being the sports guy for me, like I said, ever since Mut and Merloni, I was still a teenager and now I am in my 30's.
Also, idk the comment email went to my spam but when you liked my comment the email went to my primary, I fixed it but weird shit with substack emails lately.
Anywho, talk soon
Re-signing Chapman is a big deal!
TJ will be out at WEEI. WEEI WILL HAVE A MIX OF BASEBALL ON DUE T0 A LONG RED SOX PLAYAOFF RUN. BC WILL WIN MORE GAMES THAN THE PATRIOTS. GOOD LUCK ON THE PODC
TJ is out at WEEI? Sox might just play two playoff games David. Don't think that matters.
Red Sox could get to WS. If I was in charge of WEEI, TJ would be out. I a person to work 20 hours a week.
The CAW rants are important in many ways. I didn’t know they were allowing them till I heard it hear on the MutStack! Also, #MutSluts let’s go Sox and can’t wait for the NFL to start….good weekend
Payton Tolle must have made a shitload of money buying beer for classmates in high school. Have a great weekend Mut! I’ll be locked on Monday morning!
He looks like the guy Kadick from Barstool. Thanks DTH, have a great weekend.
I understand why some people see what Kentucky Downs is doing as unfair. The new takeout is high, yes, but it’s still only a few points above the sportsbooks—where holds are creeping toward 15 percent, and a few points below Saratoga with respect to triples and multirace bets. What surprises me is that these CAW syndicates are still using coding techniques from 5–6 years ago, before deep ML models became ubiquitous! Beating it just means developing sharper numbers. That is easier today than it was years ago. Horseracing data is cheap, more evenly distributed than in sports, and if these new system numbers are made public via subscription, the game only gets sharper, which naturally mitigates the CAW edge. Worrying about late odds drops or sharper players existing is wasted energy, because every betting market has them. What doesn’t make sense is avoiding a pari-mutuel pool against outdated code while happily betting into sportsbooks’ massive AI models with holds nearly as high. The new game is data driven.
A true quant enters to save my inadequate explanation above! Thank you. Exactly, I grew up in Saratoga and still have a broodmare farm there so there is no need for anyone to explain to me why Mut can show pics sitting in the on-air table with a smile ear to ear. But the NYRA takeout is 4 points HIGER than KD on triples and most multi race bets (yes, 1 pt lower on WPS and .75 points lower on exactas) so the idea of being all smiles at the NYRA facility and avoiding a Kentucky facility WHEN KD does far more for horsemen (which is imp for the sport too, Mut), just seems illogical. Unless of course you factor in NYRA giving the fans that final two minutes to adjust which is far more valuable to a fair weather gambler than a true handicapper. Somebody gives me better horses, fuller races and huge incentives to bet $600,000 today versus $60, I won't be mad at them for stacking me up in a game with bettors who are marginally better prepared than the masses. If I don't suck, it is only slightly more difficult to take a share of the Korean syndicate money than it is Bernie the retirees. This whole issue is a great point for racing, and I appreciate Mut bringing it up. Can't wait to see a model builder like you step in one day and blow this up sky high. I will be first in line for that subscription to the real models. regardless of its cost.