Friday Four-Pack 9.12.25
Presented (well, owned) by Barstool Sports
Editor’s Note from new Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy
Hi everybody. My name is Dave Portnoy. I am the new owner of MutStack.com. I know many of you are wondering what will happen to MutStack now that there is new ownership. I want to reassure each and every one of you that even though I own Mut’s entire existence now, I don’t plan on making any changes in the near future to MutStack.com. You will get the same hard-hitting coverage you’ve come to expect from Mut over the years. Welcome to the Barstool Family.
Note from the Original Founder/Publisher of MutStack.com, Mut.
Hell yeah!
Look at that fat face.
So, yeah, an interesting Thursday.
And like, yeah, I should have made the pitch a year ago. Or at the end of Sportsbook Live. Or last month at the Travers. But I finally made it on Thursday to Dave Portnoy on Unnamed.
I think I crushed it.
Made a compelling case for me as a DK Horse guy. Blogging about horse racing, Red Sox, Boston sports, and sports media. All the things I have been writing here for the last two-plus years, to you, the loyal MutStack reader.
Dave said it sucked. All of it. And that none of it would add any value to his mega company. But thankfully, I had help.
Thanks to some badgering from Kirk and Whit, Dave eventually came around to the idea that hiring a balding old guy who says a lot of dumb things and loves horse racing was a good idea.
See? Dave knows he made a great hire—#noregerts. And now you all know my salary.
As part of the one-year deal with Barstool, Dave Portnoy now owns the IP to MutStack.com in perpetuity. I Googled IP after agreeing to it on the show.
"Owning the IP" means that one party legally owns intellectual property (IP), such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, or trade secrets. IP ownership can be a complex issue, particularly in employment and contract situations, and is often governed by specific agreements.
So, yeah, he owns MutStack.com. And think in perpetuity is just a fancy way for rich people to say forever. So yeah, forever.
What does that mean for this newsletter?
I have no idea. Based on the editor’s note above, I get to keep writing here every week. It’s been a great outlet for me since being fired not being renewed by WEEI at the end of 2022.
I tried hard to keep MutStack.com, but I got bullied in the negotiation. Dave is Dave for a reason. But it was 100% worth it to join Barstool full-time.
We’re not even 24 hours since I was verbally hired, so I’m still in the early stages of this. But I’ll be writing for Barstool (I think), whether it’s here or elsewhere, wherever Dave says to write, I’ll be writing.
And doing videos, podcasts, shows, whatever is asked of me. Everyone I’ve talked to said Dave will let you do whatever you want. Some things will work, some won’t.
As I said on Unnamed, I have a fear of rejection, which is also a fear of failure. I’ve had it since I was very young, and it can be paralyzing. But that can’t be an excuse anymore.
I would really like to create horse racing content. I have written this 5x times now, but Dave is America’s most popular horseplayer. And with Go Go Grey Stables, he’ll end up being America’s most popular horse owner. Seeing hundreds of fans in Saratoga wearing their Barstool Racing gear on Travers Day confirmed that. I would love to work with Elio on racing content. And if they need someone to carry the briefcase at Breeders’ Cup or the NHC or Derby or Travers, I’ll be there. I know there are a ton of Stoolie Horseplayers out there.
But there are other ideas I have, too. This is an unbelievable opportunity. Thanks to Dave for taking a chance on me. Thanks to Kirk and Whit for pushing Dave on Thursday and for all their support on Unnamed.
The Minifans/#MutSluts… thank you. 💓
And I know none of this happens without Kirk Seamus Minihane. I’ll continue to be on his show once a week. Can a contest winner still ban me from the show on Black Friday? I’m guessing yes.
Kirk HATES compliments, but he’s been a good friend, and no way I’m writing this today without his support. #ThankYouKirk
To my loyal MutStack Subscribers… thank you. I hope you’ll stay faithful no matter what Dave eventually does with the IP.
Rafe and Colby at Sharp Hunter. Bomber Brad at Mohegan. Mike and Leslie at The Brook… I appreciate the support you've provided over the years.
To everyone who has reached out via text and DM, thank you.
If you’re a new subscriber - welcome. My perspective here is Boston sports-based, having grown up here and then spent almost two decades on the radio talking Boston sports. We’ll see if that focus changes with the new editor.
A new day for me. A new day for MutStack.com. I’m fired up to see where it goes.
Viva.
Meanwhile, Awful Announcing made an awful list. I’m not worried at all about my Patriots playoff prediction. And we started the year 0-3 in NFL Picks.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
Barstool!
MutStack!
You heard Dave, we ride on! Hit that subscribe button!
On my ‘Pats are a Playoff Team’ Prediction…
I’m not wavering.
Kirk Minhane Show Producer and Supposed Grill Master Justin Trudell predicted the Patriots would be 15-2 this season. After the loss to the Raiders on Sunday, he changed his prediction to 6-11. He’s rattled.
I’m not.
Week 1 Drake Maye … not awesome. His interception was horrible. Digging deeper, it was precisely the type of interception you hoped he wouldn’t throw this season. Gets pressure from Maxx Crosby, sails one to Steph Diggs, INT. It was a game-changer - in a bad way - for the Patriots.
Then the defense gave up a 36-yard play on 3rd and 20, another back breaker. FA Carlton Davis has had better days in the NFL.
You score three points in the second half, and you deserve to lose.
It was a bad loss. Gillette Stadium sounded SILENT on TV in that second half. Talk radio in Boston all week has played the HOW CONCERNED ARE YOU??? Game.
Here’s how I’m staying positive.
🏈 Drake Maye’s first real game in the Josh McDaniels system. I have complete confidence that both guys will adjust. A reminder that ONLY J.J. McCarthy is a younger starting quarterback in the NFL.
🏈 It sounds like former Ohio State coach and now Raiders OC Chip Kelly made sure the Vegas defense keyed on Treveyon Henderson. McDaniels will adjust to this, too, and I won’t be surprised when he has a breakout game against the Dolphins on Sunday. He’s electric, and even after one game, you can argue he’s Maye’s best weapon.
🏈 His second-best weapon might be Kayshon Boutte. Looked solid. Between Boutte, Henderson, Diggs, and Hunter Henry, I can’t complain that Maye doesn’t have good talent around him. Elite? Nope. But better than his rookie year.
🏈 The defense will eventually get Christian Gonzalez back, and he’ll make them a better team immediately.
🏈 Mike Vrabel is too competitive. There’s no tank this year for one of the NFL’s best underdog coaches over the last 10 years.
🏈 The schedule still has two with the Dolphins, two with the Jets, and games with Carolina, NYG, and CLE. Those are some bad teams that could find themselves fighting for the NFL’s #1 Draft Pick next spring.
Kirk mentioned on his show on Wednesday that the team could really hit rock bottom and win like three games. I don’t see it…barring maybe a Maye injury or multiple injuries on defense.
Remember how awesome everyone felt after Jerod Mayo’s team shocked the Bengals last season in Week 1?
Week 1 means nothing.
I’m still firmly on the Patriots Playoff Bandwagon.
On this Awful Announcing list…
We can debate spots #2 through #25.
I mean, come on, Dave should be higher than Doris Burke - Pat McAfee and PMT are in the Portnoy Coaching Tree. Dave should be No. 2, especially when you consider all the media companies and content factories that have tried to copy what Dave was doing way back in Milton, MA.
Jim Nantz is the voice of Masters’ Sunday, but has he been influential? Tony Romo’s energy and prediction bit have changed the game a bit - I heard Troy Aikman pull a Romo and predict the Vikings would run a bootleg for J.J. McCarthy to open the game Monday night. And he was right - they did that exact same thing early in their first series.
But #1 should be no debate; it has to be Kornheiser and Wilbon.
Their format - two guys who like each other and just ping-pong on sports - has been copied over and over since their launch. Even the rundown of what they’ll be talking about…THAT’S EVERYWHERE. From network TV to Twitch streams, you see that rundown.
Mike and Tony are and were the gold standard. That show has given guys like Dan LeBatard a much higher profile. Their successes launched hundreds of other shows that copied their playbook.
This list only goes back 25 years. If it went back further, Mike and the Mad Dog could argue themselves for the top spot. Put two guys on the air who can battle, like each other, but also create some tension — and there you go. That was Mike and Chris.
In Boston in 2025, that’s Felger and Mazz. Well, without the tension. They’ve found a way to be successful without really disagreeing about, well, anything. Pretty wild. Credit to Jim Murray for occasionally speaking out, and even to producer Jimmy Stewart for being a voice of dissent. Mazz does not provide that, no matter what Joon Lee writes.
Bill Simmons made it okay to be a fan AND write about your team. He took a lot of shit from traditional journalists like Dan Shaughnessy, but you can argue he launched the fan blog revolution. He’s definitely in the Top 5, for sure.
But Mike and Tony had a formula. Without it, an entire format might not exist. They should be No. 1 on this list.
On your Week 2 NFL Picks…
Week 1: 0-3 | Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown +200 ✅
Missed the Falcons’ pick because of a kicker. And missed on the Jordan Love rushing prop by half a yard. Half. A. Yard. And we’re back, baby!
All of the odds are from DraftKings as of 8 AM Friday or so.
The Side
Patriots +2.5 at Dolphins (-112, DK)
As bad as it looked for the Pats on Sunday, it was worse for the Dolphins. Tua had a 51 QB Rating and a -15.3 EPA en route to a 33-8 stomping at the hands of the Colts. Their offensive DVOA was 2nd to last in Week 1, not a shock when your quarterback plays that poorly.
Since then, they’ve lost two starting offensive linemen to injury and held the dreaded “Players Only Meeting” after Week 1. The word was out that this team would stink, and nothing from the first week-plus of the season says otherwise.
The Patriots missed some plays against the Raiders, but their defense was keyed on stud rookie RB Treveyon Henderson. After playing less than 40% of the snaps last week, my guess is he’s unleashed on Sunday.
The Patriots should have a significant edge in the DL/OL matchup and at the head coach. I thought the Pats would be the favorite here, so I have to bet them +2.5.
Trends that are favorable for us: Vrabel is strong as an underdog. Dogs in matchups of two 0-1 teams are 53-28-3 (65%). Week 1 teams that lose by 21+ points and then find themselves Week 2 favorites are 5-12-2 ATS since 2005.
Pats plus or moneyline for many brave souls.
The Total
Jets vs Bills UNDER 46.5 (-110, DK)
The Jets’ 41 rush attempts in Week 1 were the second-most in the NFL. The Bills - even in a shootout - still ran the ball the seventh-most times last week. They were trending towards playing at the slowest pace of the week before they had to rally late.
The Jets don’t want to be in a shootout here as home dogs and up against a more talented team. Both games between these two teams last year yielded under 120 plays, and I don’t see why this week is not more of the same. And coming off the shootout, could see the Bills try to shorten the game.
Neither defense seems scary, so there is some high point total potential in the range of outcomes. But not enough to talk me off the under.
The Prop
Bills WR Josh Palmer UNDER 31.1 REC YARDS (-115, DK)
The WR3 for the Bills could get left out if the team decides to pound the ball with James Cook and play a slow game (see above). Fellow WR Khalil Shakir could cook in the slot after a 6 for 64 Week 1. The idea here is slow game, Bills run more, more Shakir and Dalton Kincaid = Palmer UNDER.
The Anytime TD Play of the Week
CALEB WILLIAMS +450 👑
On your MutStack Notes…
🏈 So this worked out, but holy crap, this was the most nerve-racking cover of all time.
And honestly? It was the most nervous I have ever been watching a game. Dave fell asleep, I think, but I was wired. Way, way too close. Heart rate 110 for two hours. As someone who has given out plenty of losers - and will do so in the future, I’m sure - this one felt good—seemed like a lot of people tailed, which I love to see.
Career 1-0 on days I was verbally hired by Barstool. Go Pack Go.
🏀 So yeah, no more Locked on UConn. The people there behind the scenes were great. I got some help and support from them and a few of the other Locked on Hosts. If you’re a UConn DieHard with an interest in media or podcasting, reach out to them about the opening. Even DM me on Twitter, I’ll point you in the right direction.
🏈 “It's clear I'm not welcome there at their facility. So they're not welcome at ours. It’s pretty simple.” Bill Belichick … the man can hold a grudge. And of course it’s not that simple, since barring Pats’ scouts from UNC could hurt his own players’ chances at being drafted.
🎙️ Credit to WEEI’s Chris Curtis for asking Mike Vrabel about Belichick’s comments about it on Monday, getting Vrabel to point out that Bill was back for Tom Brady’s event at Gillette Stadium.
The 2025 Patriots Hall of Fame induction ceremony for Julian Edelman and Bill Parcells will take place on Saturday, September 20, at 4:00 p.m. ET at Patriot Place. Both guys have HUGE ties to Belichick. UNC plays, so Bill won’t be there in person, but what are the chances he does some sort of video recognition?
10%? 20% Less?
⚾ Legit BIG series for the Red Sox this weekend against the Yankees at Fenway. It feels like the Sox got swallowed up by the Pats and being on the West Coast over the last week, but they’re just 3.5 games back in the division and just half a game back of the Yankees from the top Wild Card spot and the #4 seed. The four-seed gets to host all three games in the Wild Card round, so it’s a huge deal.
🏇🏻 Great move by Prairie Meadows to reward human customers on track with a 10% win bonus. As weekend horseplayers continue to battle the computer teams, I love seeing things like this.
And with that, we have indeed said it all.
I’ll be reporting live next week from Parx Race Course for Pennsylvania Derby Weekend. Looks like a loaded race. I’ll be in the paddock making picks on Friday and Saturday. Follow along on social media or the Parx feed from the track.
Please come say hello. Got a bunch of messages from Stoolies saying they’re going, so don’t be shy!
Good luck with all your college and NFL bets this weekend. Football!
What a week. Thanks for reading.
The Iliad. Crime and Punishment. Hamlet.
All pale in comparison to Mutstack. Dave Portnoy made a smart investment in this purchase.
Congrats Mut! Well deserved, excited for the next chapter!