Friday Four-Pack 9.13.24

NFL, Pats, Robert Kraft and the loss of an important voice in racing all part of this week's newsletter.

I get it, sports media in 2024 is MUCH different than it was 20 years ago…10 years ago…hell five years ago.

Sports media used to mean TV anchors or radio hosts or beat writers or sports columnists. Pretty basic.

Now sports media has to include BigCat and Jersey Jerry picking the TNF game. Or Jimmy from JomBoy Media doing one of his excellent lip-reading breakdowns. It’s now videos and live streams and going viral. The game has changed.

But there is still a place for good, detailed, investigative, well-written sports journalism in this new WE HAVE TO GO VIRAL landscape.

And we got that this week in the form of Don Van Natta Jr’s deep dive on Robert Kraft’s desperate pursuit of a Pro Football Hall of Fame induction.

And boy does it sound desperate. Go ahead and click the image above if you have not read the story yet. If you have any interest in the Patriots or the NFL, it is a must-read.

If you don’t want to read the whole thing, here are the three most important notes according to a Substack newsletter publisher who likes to bet on football and horse racing.

1.

But Kraft owns the film and television rights to "The Dynasty" book, according to documents obtained by ESPN. That means the book by acclaimed author Jeff Benedict could be turned into a film only with Kraft's permission. And according to emails, documents and sources, Kraft owns the docuseries, licensed it to Apple and sought editorial control.

Shortly after the book was published, Patriots PR chief Stacey James sent copies to at least five Hall of Fame voters as an argument for Kraft's induction. The Patriots sent one voter a copy two years in a row.

This seemed obvious to most people at the time, but the book and the docuseries were both cases of Kraft Family Fiction, in the sense that they had control over what was said and written. I did not know that The Dynatsy author Jeff Benedict was a “lifelong Patriots fan (who) proposed to set the record straight on Kraft's underappreciated role in keeping the team in New England and its 20-year run of unprecedented greatness.” The book read like it was written by a fan and the Krafts…turns out it really was!

2.

When the Gibney deal fell apart, Kraft and Benedict searched for a new production company. Within weeks, Kraft struck a deal with Brian Grazer's Imagine Entertainment to produce "The Dynasty" for Apple TV+.

The profit split in the Grazer-helmed film mirrored the terms in Gibney's failed negotiation, according to multiple sources with direct knowledge of the arrangement. The sources said they were uncertain whether Kraft maintained editorial control in the film produced by Grazer, his close friend.

This is the end of a long section in which Kraft reportedly tries to convince the initial producer of the Apple TV+ series (Gibney) to give him editorial control and not loop in Apple about it. I did not know until this story that the eventual producer of the series was a close friend of Kraft. That seems pretty important. But not surprising if you watched it

3.

A half dozen voters pointed to James' lobbying as another intangible in Kraft's annual Hall of Fame campaign. With each passing year, they say, James has become more insistent and impatient.

"I was repelled by the push -- this idea, we'll do anything to win your vote," a longtime voter said. "It was never articulated, but it felt that way... I don't need to talk to anyone. And I can make up my own mind."

One Hall of Fame voter said he urged James and Kraft's other supporters to "go lightly -- and that's advice they obviously didn't take."

"I've told Stacey James this before," another veteran voter said. "I don't think he should be in the position to overwhelm people with a mountain of information and a lot of pushing. I've told him, 'I have never seen it work.' ...

"Subtlety goes a long way."

In my few dealings with Pats PR maven Stacey James, he’s been great. His loyalty in trying to get Kraft into the HOF is admirable, but I felt bad for him reading this story. It comes across like he’s begging for his boss to get in..and has been doing it for a while.

Look, I’m with most rational people - Robert Kraft should be in the Hall of Fame. His impact on the game and the most important NFL team of the last 20 years is obvious. Given the new rules where contributors (like Kraft) are now in a separate category for the HOF, it’s not a matter of if but when.

But as Chief Grady said in one of the great comedies of our time Super Troopers, “Desperation is a stinky cologne.”

And the desperation reeks in this deep-dive from Van Natta. Great stuff. Excellent reporting.

Meanwhile, we have Week 2 NFL Picks. The Pats win was important but they’re still not going to be good. A full media and sports betting notebook. And a tribute to Chuck Simon.

All in today’s Four-Pack.

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On the importance of the Patriots’ upset win over the Bengals…

You don’t need my game thoughts five days later…but that was a lucky Pats win.

The Bengals played a LIFELESS game. They fumbled twice. They dropped a TD pass. Joe Burrow is clearly hurt. No Tee Higgins. Cinci’s D dropped a Jacoby Brissett INT in the endzone. BAD.

It was wild to hear Felger and Mazz and Murray talk about how GREAT the game was. I can’t get there. Low-scoring football where the Pats were lucky to win. And the Bengals sucked.

BUT…it was an important win for Jerod Mayo. And the organization.

Because it gives him (and them) some space to operate without being under a large media and fan microscope. No one is clamoring for Drake Maye to play this week. Or for the team to fire Alex Van Pelt. Or ripping the rookie head coach for some dumb decision.

It’s all about Mayo and the team’s “Take them to the Hill!” rallying cry.

As a married man, I’ve been here. You probably have been, too.

When you do something nice…like clean the house or replace the sink your wife hates or take the kids out for a few hours and let her have the place to herself…you’re afforded some leeway.

It’s a great feeling! You can go to Thursday night golf league without a scowl as you walk out the door. You can watch eight hours of uninterrupted football without the purposeful slamming of cabinets that make sure you know that she knows you’re still watching football. That’s big! And Mayo and the team earned their own leeway with the upset win over Cincinnati.

At some point, reality will set in, right? The offense is pedestrian. The defense will face tougher challenges. And the fans will start calling for the No. 3 overall pick to play. Mayo will be asked about losses and not catchphrases. He’ll be unfairly compared to Bill Belichick.

But the win over the Bengals delays all of that for now. A win over the Seahawks on Sunday would delay it even more.

My view has not changed - they’re still a bottom-five team that will struggle to keep up with competent offenses. But for an extra week or two, no one will focus on that.

And while not season-changing, that little extra honeymoon period for the coach and the team is a good thing to start the season.

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On the passing of Chuck Simon…

Chuck Simon and his tag-team partner Barry Spears

“Most people’s opinions suck!”

Those were the words from retired trainer turned racing media star Chuck Simon this past January.

Chuck - alongside his co-host and good friend Barry Spears - was ranting on his Going in Circles podcast about the folks who vote on the Eclipse Awards. For non-racing fans, the Eclipse Awards are racing’s once-a-year awards. People get dressed up. The winners (the humans not the horses) make speeches. It creates an annual debate on racing and the way the voters vote.

The irony of Chuck yelling that during one of his marathon podcasts was that whether he realized it or not - when it came to racing and racing matters - his opinion did not suck: those opinions were important, usually right, and were a breath of fresh air for the sport of horse racing.

Chuck’s brutal honesty about the issues that face racing stood out at a time when people in the game bend over backward to defend it at every turn.

Even in his most recent column from July, he attacks racing out of the gate.

It’s been awhile since I wrote a post and well….a lot has happened since. Today’s words aren’t about me, though at some point I will tell the tales of some amazing people that I have been fortunate to have in my life. No sir this is piece about other juicy stuff like delusion, selfishness, greed, politics, an absence of vision and a general lack of understanding of the mechanics of horseracing.

Chuck loved the game but was also unwilling to bite his tongue when it came to its issues: like SuperTrainers™️ getting all the horses and pushing the small trainers out. Or the CAWs messing with the regular, weekend horseplayer. Or the countless dumb track management decisions made all over the country. Or a steward’s terrible call.

Many folks in the game would share Chuck’s opinions on these issues. But because they’re tied to a track or an ADW or a sponsor, they keep those opinions to themselves or private text threads.

Not Chuck. His X.com feed is filled with posts and replies about the issues facing racing. His podcast and Substack are more of the same. He loved talking about racing and was not afraid to critique a game in need of a critical pair of eyes.

But he was not just critical - he was an exceptional writer. His column the day after Maple Leaf Mel broke down last summer at Saratoga is something I’ve gone back to read multiple times.

Sadness 🍁

Talented trainer Cherie DeVaux worked for Chuck and credits him for convincing her to get more serious about her work with horses and be less of a night owl. Chuck continued to support Cherie when she found big success going out on her own.

Retired after a good career as a trainer and before that assistant trainer, he was a natural at talking and writing about the game. When he wasn’t doing that, he was helping people all around it.

Chuck was a champion for his podcast co-host Barry Spears when he started making appearances on TVG and other shows, showcasing his handicapping skills. The list of people around the game that Chuck Simon went out of his way to befriend and support goes on and on and on.

I was one of the many lucky ones on the receiving end of Chuck’s kindness to the racing community.

Last summer when I started writing about racing and doing videos for NYRA Bets, he began linking to my stuff in his newsletter. Then he started doing the same with this Four-Pack column. And letting people know about my work at the PA Derby. This was all out of nowhere. It gave me major credibility with racing fans to have someone as respected as Chuck promoting my writing. At a time when I was just starting out, he helped me grow this newsletter by sending me subscribers through his recommendations.

This spring, I was lucky to collaborate with Chuck on handicapping a few Derby Prep races, and eventually the Kentucky Oaks and Derby. We got to do our own little, independent Talking Horses on two of the biggest races of the year.

I loved every second of it.

A few weeks later when he didn’t host his podcast or write about the Preakness, it was clear something was wrong. In early June, he let us all know that he was sick. Just four months after he was first diagnosed, he was gone, taken by cancer this past Sunday at the way-too-young age of 57. Just brutal.

To get an idea of how much he’ll be missed, go look through his X.com mentions over the past week. Or listen to his friend Steve Byk this past Monday, fighting through tears to tell great Chuck Simon stories.

I was lucky to text with Chuck quite a bit this year. About our writing ideas. About his Dolphins. About the Pats draft. About racing coverage on TV. He was never short on opinions.

I regret not thanking him for all his support. Or telling him how much it meant to me. Thank you, Chuck.

Aqueduct, Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Monmouth Park are all scheduled to run races in Chuck’s honor this Sunday. He was a Saratoga native and hopefully NYRA finds a way to honor him at Saratoga Race Course.

His voice, personality, and presence around the game he loved will be missed. Condolences to his friends and family during this tough time.

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On your sports media and sports betting notes…

• Let’s start with sports media. 98.5 The Sports Hub announced Friday that former Lowell Spinners and Lowell Devils voice Ryan Johnston would be the new radio voice of the Boston Bruins. Johnston has filled in on B’s broadcasts and has been a part-time staple at The Sports Hub for years. He was the obvious choice for the job. I will not pretend to listen to much hockey play-by-play on the radio, but we will always root for Middlesex County here at MutStack.com.

• This will end Sports Radio WEEI’s pursuit of Johnston as a potential afternoon show host. I’m told my note last week about their interest in Boston Globe columnist Chris Gasper is “real,” but that Gasper seems unlikely to make the move. Back to the drawing board, I guess.

• Ironically, I texted Tyler Murray a few weeks ago trying to see if he got the Bruins job. The word around both the Red Sox and WEEI was he had landed a full-time professional play-by-play job. Murray is part of the WooSox broadcast team and has done some Red Sox radio games for the last two years. Turns out it wasn’t the Bruins - the lifelong Knicks fan was named their radio play-by-play voice Thursday. Murray - just 34 years old - will be one of the youngest broadcasters in the NBA. Big week for the local guys.

• On the national level, Tom Brady was not good in his Fox debut. BUT…Kevin Burkhardt didn’t do him any favors by “interviewing” Brady during the game. It felt WAY too formal. WAY too stiff. Maybe that was Brady’s nerves, but he seemed much more loose in the lead-up to Sunday. The good news here is that, unlike Tony Romo, there won’t be universal praise that goes straight to TB12’s head out of the gate. I am the ultimate Brady honk, but I think he will get much better. Fox has Pats/Seahawks at the same time Brady is calling Cowboys/Saints, so it will be tough to have a full review locally of his Week 2 call.

• The much-anticipated Massachusetts Gaming Commission’s public hearing on the limiting of winning sports bettors took place on Wednesday. The MGC tried this back in May, but none of the operators showed up. This time they did, with reps from FanDuel and Fanatics doing most of the talking.
  
  There were two sessions - one with operators and one with journalists + gambling and industry veterans.
  
  First, an expert’s take. Steve Ruddock writes about the sports betting and gaming industry on his own Substack, Straight To The Point. I asked him for his reaction to Wednesday’s two-session meeting.

  
  “The takeaway from Wednesday’s Massachusetts Gaming Commission panel on limiting bettors was that both sides did a good job stating their case. Several statements seemed to resonate with commissioners, including journalist David Hill’s comment that offshore sportsbooks told him customers they lost following PASPA’s repeal are trickling back after being limited, and Joe Brennan Jr.'s statement that a sportsbook limiting sharp bettors is like the stock market limiting Goldman Sachs.

  
  For its part, the MGC was hyper-focused on casual bettors getting swept up in sportsbook actions against advantage bettors and violators of the site’s terms & conditions.
  

  So, what happens next? Nothing soon, as MGC Interim Chair Jordan Maynard stressed the Commission's deliberative nature and threw cold water on anyone hoping for near-term change. If regulatory action is taken, it will likely be along the lines of books communicating with limited bettors (something the MGC seemed very interested in), which is nothing more than a feel-good regulation that would accomplish little to nothing.

  
  Still, the MGC kicked off a difficult conversation that needs to be had in every legal jurisdiction.”
  
  Steve is well-versed on all this and wrote much more extensively about it on his Substack so check it out here. Me? I’m certainly not an expert. I’m a losing sports bettor who cares about this stuff, especially when it’s us - the sports bettors - that are getting screwed.
  
  My take on the meetings: Most sportsbooks just don’t want to deal with smart sports bettors. If you find a bad line or take advantage of their mistakes, they will limit you, it’s that simple. They admitted that on Wednesday.
  
  These sportsbooks want you firing off 20 same-game-parlays and 20 more 10-team teasers every weekend. When you hit big, they’ll ask to use your winning ticket on social media to entice other bettors to sign up and take wild swings at huge paydays. But win too much, or in a way that deems you an “advantage player,” and you’re gone.
  
  It is you against them. Period. Get the best of it while you can, because they get to decide when you’ve won too much and in a way they don’t like. And when they do that, you’ll be limited in how much you can bet.

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On our Week 2 NFL Picks…

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Week 1 Record: 2-1.
Carolina +4 was dead in the first quarter. Turns out the Panthers do indeed suck. Just a terrible call.

The Side
Rams +1.5 at Cardinals
Week Two in the NFL has been a week to play the underdogs. From Action Network - the last three seasons dogs of less than six points are 40-16 ATS in Week 2. With that as the primer, happy to play the Rams here getting a point and a half at Arizona. If you’d rather take the ML at +105 or so, I get it.

The Cardinals’ defense was bad in Buffalo: dead last for the week in DVOA and dead last vs. the pass. Josh Allen didn’t throw a ton, but he completed 80% of his passes and had over 10 yards per attempt. The Rams should be able to throw it all day on Arizona and Cooper Kupp looked elite in Week 1 - 14 catches on 21!!! targets. I guess that market moved the game toward the Cards because Puka Nacua is out. Demarcus Robinson is a fine replacement not worried about that.

Some trends I’m leaning on: Sean McVay 27-17-1 ATS vs NFC West and 12-2-1 ATS vs Arizona. Kyler Murray is just 1-8 in his career vs the Rams.

The Total
49ers at Vikings UNDER 46.5 (FanDuel)
Admittedly burned by the under in SF/NYJ on Monday night, but happy to fire on this game for a few reasons.

We know the 49ers want to play slow - after being one of the slowest teams in the league last year, Week 1 had them 3rd slowest. The Vikings are in no hurry with Sam Darnold back there, operating as Week 1’s 12th slowest team. Both teams ran the ball on over 50% of their plays, which can help the under by running the clock.

This is also a matchup of the 4th (MIN) and 8th (SF) ranked DVOA defenses in Week 1.

Two teams happy to play slow. Two teams that want to run. Two teams that might employ plus defenses. It sounds like a good UNDER play to me.

The Prop
Jamaal Williams O3.5 carries (-120, FanDuel)
I don’t get it. The Saints have Alvin Kamara. They have Taysom Hill, who they can use as a runner. And then they have Kamara’s backup, Jamaal Williams. Williams had 11 carries last week and cleared this number 10 times last season (some of those games were with Kamara hurt). The Saints’ other RB Kendre Miller is out. They use Williams to spell Kamara and at the goalline. DraftKings had this line at 4.5 and pulled it down. BetMGM has it at 5.5 carries! Don’t love the -120, but this one is a strong play for me at O3.5 carries.

We have for sure said it all.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Comments open below. And thanks for reading.

Good weekend.