Friday Four-Pack 9.20.24

Patriots embarrassed on TNF. Joe Castiglione retiring. Carrabis on the Sox. NFL Picks!

Sep 20, 2024

We’ll get to that abysmal Pats loss, NFL Picks, and all that good stuff below.

But when you’ve lost Carrabis…

We’ll start today’s Four-Pack with my buddy Jared Carrabis, star of the Section 10 Podcast, NESN, 98.5 The Sports Hub and wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy before any of that stardom, my Red Sox Review intern on WEEI.

I had to reach out on some Sox issues after his somber X.com post Wednesday.

MM: I’ve known you for a long time. Technically, I put you on the radio before you were a big star, but whatever. You’ve always tried to be positive. It seems like the Red Sox broke you this season. What happened?

JC: I think as I’ve gotten older, the naive aspect of my fandom wore off and I’m able to be more objective about what I’m looking at. I was in high school for 2004 so you kind of adopt this “anything can happen” mentality with the Red Sox and never lose hope, but 2004 was 20 years ago and this group was not that group. I was bitter coming into the season because I didn’t feel like they did enough to put a winning team on the field, which they didn’t. And then through the first two months, it was the same shit as the last two years with a .500 team. We were able to suspend reality for about a month and a half when they got to 11 games over, but then from there, it was right back to being the .500 team I thought they were all along. I’d rather be the ‘suspend belief fan’ and just have fun watching them all year and I don’t really enjoy being right about what I thought they were all along. It’s no fun.

MM: Look at you, getting older and more cynical. I felt like for a third straight trade deadline. This team blew it. Fair criticism?

JC: This one felt different just because they did something to actually help the team this year. Obviously, Chaim flubbed the 2022 deadline by not getting under the luxury tax, but he got Wilyer Abreu. Even though he did that, Wilyer wouldn’t help the team until two years later. This year, they at least got a couple bullpen arms that were rentals to help the actual current team. It didn’t work out obviously, but both of those guys were pitching well until they got here and then the wheels fell off. They didn’t go all in at the deadline, but in their defense, nobody did. The prices were absurd. They did something, but they didn’t do enough. Now they have to go all-out this winter.

MM: OK, but do you have faith they’ll actually go all-out this winter? I don’t given the last few years Is there a name at the top of the Carrabis FA wish list?

JC: I don’t, but they have to do something. I also don’t think it all has to be done this winter either. It’s starting to shape up to me like 2026 is the go-for-it year. Next year will be the next wave of prospects who are getting their feet wet, but you should never expect any of them to become immediate impact players the second they get to the big leagues. You can still add some pieces that will be in place for when you’re ready to go for it this winter, gradually integrate the prospects next season and then have another aggressive winter going into ‘26 and now you’re ready to roll. If they can flip Casas and a prospect package for one of Seattle’s starters, do that. You can sign Max Fried because they need a lefty in the rotation somewhere. I think the dream is a Casas trade for a starter, Raffy to first for a year, sign Vladdy to play first going into ‘26 and then have Raffy DH.

MM: There are some big IFs there. Your Section 10 podcast is already huge. Your Unobstructed Views alt cast on NESN was a hit… although Katie Nolan seemed annoyed you’ve never had Ben and Jerry’s before. Has NESN re-upped you already for next year? Is there a chance you replace Joe C in the radio booth? People are asking.

JC: All the feedback from NESN has been great. There’s already been talks about doing it again next year, but nothing officially signed yet or anything. I don’t really have aspirations to do anything bigger than the once-a-week stuff. I love doing Section 10 and Baseball is Dead. We’ve been doing more vlog content this year and it’s been awesome. The fans love seeing all the personalities out in the wild away from the actual podcast. I like living in my Underdog podcast universe with all my co-hosts and then dabbling in the mainstream stuff like the alt cast, Baseball Hour with Mazz once a week, and then the occasional MLB Network appearances. For how I like to cover baseball, I don’t think I belong in the traditional media space more than the once-a-week stuff.

MM: What is that terrible nickname Mazz has for you?

JC: Crabgrass

MM: Yeah, that has to go. Look forward to your off-season coverage and when you’re back on The Kirk Minihane Show. The Red Sox playoff chances are at 1%…are my chances of joining you next year on NESN for an Unobstructed View higher or lower than that?

JC: I would say they’re much higher than that. I want you on one. I want Kirk on one. I said I’ve retired from KMS appearances because I live a very boring life now to the KMS audience and I’m no longer living the bachelor Barstool bad boy lifestyle that the Minifans grew to love to hear stories about. But if there’s one person I would come out of retirement for, it’s Mike Mutnansky. Mut and Merloni forever.

MM: I forgot you were a, well THE, listener to that show. Well, you and my mom. Thanks for the time, Crabgrass.

JC: ☝️(That’s the emoji he ended the conversation with. I don’t know what it means.)

RIP Mut and Merloni.

The show, not the hosts. We’re still alive.

A BIG offseason for the Sox, for sure.

But before that, FOOTBALL and so much more in today’s Four-Pack.

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On your day-after Pats and Jets thoughts….

For the very pro-Patriots crowd taking in Pats vs. Jets Thursday night in the Mohegan Sun FanDuel Sportsbook, the highlight of the first half was former Patriot Rob Gronkowski firing promotional tee shirts into the crowd from the VIP Mezzanine section.

It really was the only thing worth cheering for.

After a few weeks of the local media in New England trying to twist themselves into a pretzel and explain why this Patriots team might not be so bad, reality set in Thursday night at MetLife Stadium.

Outmanned, outplayed, outefforted (not a real word, I know), the Pats vomited all over themselves in their only primetime game of the season.

At one point late in the first half, Amazon Prime flashed the graphic that the Patriots had run 15 plays for a total of 20 yards in just over seven minutes of possessing the football.

15 plays. 20 yards.

The vaunted defense wasn’t much better, allowing 400 yards to a Jets offense that had looked pedestrian through two weeks. The Jets were aided by a putrid Pats third-down defense that allowed 10 of 15 conversions.

It was all bad, but especially the team’s offensive line. And look, I hate OL talk too, but it has to be highlighted here.

This team had a bad OL last year, Eliot Wolf was here to see it. This offseason Wolf gets elevated to “executive vice president of player personnel,” and had a chance to fix it. His moves? Vederian Lowe, Chukwuma Okorafor and Caedan Wallace. Journeyman, journeyman, and rookie. Oh, rookie being asked to change positions.

It was simply not a functional unit on Thursday night. Jacoby Brissett and eventually Drake Maye were running for their lives against an NYJ defense that racked up seven sacks on just 33 Patriots dropbacks.

If you turned it off at halftime, I don’t blame you. The Pats fans at Mohegan Sun did the same, streaming out after the last of the promotional tee shirts were fired off. This team does not possess the firepower to come back from any real deficit.

Some other assorted thoughts on an ugly loss -

No, it is not time to start Drake Maye. Don’t be stupid. He flashed his athleticism late in the blowout Thursday. He can make plays with his feet, I get it. But putting him out there in Week 4 against the 49ers would be football malpractice.

He’s probably a better quarterback than Brissett right now, but there is no reason to play him while the line is so bad. As I’ve written before, it’s not that Drake Maye isn’t ready, it’s that Wolf and Co. didn’t build a team ready to protect a No. 3 overall pick.
Eliot Wolf is for sure the No. 1 loser coming off the blowout loss. A close No. 2 is offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt. He stinks.
Turns out the Pats wanted to bring back former tight ends coach Nick Caley - Albert Breer reported on Thursday’s Zolak and Bertrand the team offered him $3 million/year to come back and be the OC. He turned it down and got a promotion in LA. Then the Pats ended up with Van Pelt’s 1986 offense. Awesome!
I put very little of the loss on Brissett. What the hell was he supposed to do with that play-calling and offensive line?
Text from a friend during the game “Belichick went into a Viagra induced coma in the middle of the second quarter.” After avoiding giving the Pats any credit for their start in his various media spots, I’m guessing Bill will be more than happy to talk about this one all week!
I hope this loss quiets some of the local media’s push that this team is “not going to be that bad.” I would not call it cheerleading…maybe wishcasting by folks who want the team they cover to be relevant.
Jonathan Kraft laughing it up in the owner’s box as his team is getting embarrassed was not a good look.
You can bet the Pats +12 vs. the 49ers right now at Caesars. OR you can bet the Pats +1200 to have the worst record in football over on FanDuel. I think the latter is still in play and is worth a few bucks, given the team’s schedule and OL issues.

At some point, Drake Maye will start and the team will be interesting. Until then, they're simply the most boring team in the NFL.

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On the retirement of Joe Castiglione…

Like many Red Sox fans in their mid-40s, I grew up with Joe Castiglione and Jerry Trupiano as MY Red Sox announcers. Trup moved on after the 2006 season, but Castig stayed on.

And in the process, he became the voice of the Red Sox for a certain generation. His World Series calls are iconic in New England sports lore.

And Joe’s was a signature voice - whether it was on the Red Sox game call or voicing a Shaw’s produce commercial - didn’t matter. In a world of broadcasters who all sound the same, Joe’s voice stood out.

On Sunday that signature voice told a first radio and then TV audience that this season would be his last season behind the mic after 42 of them. Hard to imagine now in this day and age of media lasting 42 seasons in a broadcast booth for any one team.

It had been trending this way for a while, with Joe doing fewer games and fewer long road trips.

I worked behind Joe in the second row of the Red Sox radio booth for a few years, doing in-game updates along with pre and post-game shows. Joe was there early almost every day, getting down to the field to talk to players, management, media, etc. He sought out information on the opposing team from their broadcasters every series. I didn’t see one second of Joe ever mailing it in, even when the team was bad. His work ethic and commitment to the team - and in reality his listening audience - were impressive.

As was/is his commitment to the Jimmy Fund. Joe would do anything for them - including getting to Fenway Park at noon for an event and then staying all day before calling a Sox night game.

And Joe was awesome with visitors to the booth. Some people (myself included) would get annoyed with folks loitering in what was our workspace. Not Joe. He’d chat between innings and treat people like they were guests in his own home.

Rob Bradford alluded to this in his appreciation of Joe this week, but Castig LOVED to give the Yankees score when they were losing. He would be giddy when you’d get to tell him they lost or had a bad inning. I always got a kick out of the fact that after all these years, that still made him happy.

He was always kind to me, even when I had to rip the Sox in the postgame on his drive home. I wish him the best in retirement and was glad to see the decision to walk away and spend more time with his family was indeed his own.

So, what’s next for the Red Sox radio booth? It’s a story I’m working on.

The obvious choice might look like Will Flemming taking over as the full-time voice of the Red Sox and former infielder Lou Merloni becoming the almost full-time player analyst in the booth. Maybe a few other former players (Brock Holt, Rich Hill are two names I’ve heard) fill out the schedule.

Castiglione has pushed for Flemming to get the job both publically and privately. But it’s not that easy.

MutStack.com was the first to report earlier this year that the Red Sox will have team control of the radio booth beginning as soon as 2025: they’ll decide on the team broadcasters, the same way they control the TV side on NESN. The Boston Globe has since reported something similar.

Right now, Flemming, Castiglione, etc - they’re employed by Audacy. I’m told that could change as soon as next season, with the radio booth being employed directly by the team. One theory I’ve heard is that the Red Sox could “mix and match” between the radio and TV side during the season. Not that uncommon in MLB.

Do the Red Sox, like Castiglione, believe Will Flemming is the obvious choice? We’re going to find out in the next few months. Does Merloni want to commit to more games on TV and or radio? Not sure. As I said, a lot of moving parts here.

Safe to say whoever they bring in will have a hard time matching the longevity of impact Joe Castiglione.

On your media and sports betting notebook…

…Like, his shit has to stop.

How can you consider yourself a serious industry when you allow this to happen? This horse was 13-1 going into the gate and 3-1 once they broke. And of course he won.

There was clearly some sort of story here, as this 20-1 ML was actually the favorite in the Pick 3 pools. Someone knew something. But it does not take away from the fact that some guy on-track betting $10 to win feels like someone stole from him..even when he cashed! Racing has to be better.

…A caller tried to call into WEEI this week and promote MutStack.com and Sportsbook Live and was hung up on. Sad!

…You can’t take a victory lap for the scoop and then get upset when you get roasted for getting the scoop wrong. In this case for WEEI’s Courtney Cox, it was her report that the Bruins and goalie Jeremy Swayman had a “done deal.” Turns out they don’t and Swayman is likely to hold out until December 1. Take the L and don’t play the “I hate this app” card.

…The best take by far on the ‘retirement’ of Adrian Wojnarowski from ESPN came from Nick Kostos. Thanks to Nick for reminding us all how little Woj thought of sports bettors and his insane take on sports betting and drinking from a few years ago. We STILL can’t embed X.com videos here on Substack so watch here.

On our Week 3 NFL Picks…

Straight from Action Network - The betting public (51%+ of tickets) is 12-20-1 ATS this season. Tough start for a lot of people.

We’re off to an 0-2 start on sides. 4-0 on totals & props is saving us.

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Week 1: 2-1
Week 2: 2-1
Season: 4-2

The Side
Bears +1.5 at the Colts
This is the breakout week for rookie QB Caleb Williams and the Bears offense. Maybe. The Bears O get a Colts defense that ranks 30 of 32 teams in DVOA defense thru the first two weeks. In these first two games, the Colts have allowed 356 passing yards 3TD/0 INTS. On the ground, they’ve allowed a league-worst 474 yards. Anthony Richardson faces a Bears defense ranked 7th in DVOA - yes he’s had some big plays downfield but the overall body of work is not great. Richardson is completing just 49.1% of his passes and per Evan Abrams of Action Network, he is only the 5th QB since 2000 under 50% completion pct on 50+ attempts with 4+ interceptions through two games. Maybe its all my Best Ball and Fantasy shares of Caleb Williams talking here, but the Colts D can be had.

The Total
Chargers at the Steelers UNDER 35.5
Admittedly, the value has been sucked out of this one. It opened 39.5 and everyone is just HAMMERING the under here. And I get it. FTN’s pace numbers have the Steelers (6th) and the Chargers (13th) as two of the slower offenses in the league when it comes to neutral situation sec/play. And both teams are married to running the football - the Steelers are running the ball 61.4% (#1) of the time in those same neutral situation game scripts (anywhere between up 8 and down 8 points) while LAC clocks in at 53.8% (#4).

So, two slowish offenses that love to run the ball against the #1 (LAC) and #6 (PIT) DVOA defenses.

TL;DR - Hold your nose and play the under.

The Prop
Tyreek Hill O66.5 receiving yards
The Dolphins are desperate and desperate times call for getting your best offensive player the ball as much as possible. Mike McDaniel will be feeding Hill - just like the team did in that 2023 playoff game against the Bills when Skylar Thompson started and Hill racked up 15!!! targets. I expect more of the same Sunday in Seattle. Seahawks have faced the Broncos and Patriots receivers to start the season so their Pass D numbers are bound to look good. Hill is the best receiver they have seen. Can get this home with just one big play.

A lot more betting ideas and special guest Rob Gronkowski joined us this week on Sportsbook Live from Mohegan Sun.

We have for sure said it all.

BUT wait! Since I’ll be there at Parx to work with the track announcer and my friend Jessica Paquette handicapping all the races, a special Pennsylvania Derby Stack here tomorrow morning with picks and ideas for all 14 races. I’ll be in and around the paddock and the weather looks great. If you’re there to see Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion, come say hello.

Good luck with all your bets this weekend. Back tomorrow for PA Derby Picks. Thanks for reading.

Good weekend.