Friday Four-Pack 9.26.25
My boss is demanding more. The Red Sox appear playoff-bound. A great trip to Parx. NFL Picks and weekly MutStack notes
Editor’s Note from new Editor/Owner of MutStack.com, Dave Portnoy
It was an up-and-down week for the proprietor of MutStack.com, known as Mike Mutnansky. It came to my attention that despite 83% of his elevator pitch on why he deserved a job at Barstool was to blog about the Red Sox, he was in fact, not blogging about the Red Sox at all. While that was fairly disconcerting, he managed to redeem himself somewhat by having another outstanding Thursday Night prop performance on Thursday Night Football, of which I am now tailing. I am now demanding that Mut’s X.com profile, he changes his name to Mike “Mr. Thursday Night” Mutnansky as continued terms of his employment, as well as blogging about the Red Sox.
I woke up Thursday thinking about Cardinals receiver Greg Dortch. Don’t believe me??
Here are my messages from 8:02 AM, asking our friends at DraftKings if they’d be posting any Dortch props. I have no shame. With Zay Jones out, he figured to get plenty of run in the Cardinals’ 3 WR sets. A few hours later, and we had Dortch props - shoutout DraftKings!
Four out of five, pretty nice little Thursday. Since joining Barstool, I’m now 8-2 on Thursday Night Football plays—at least a few of those my new boss tailed on and scored. Love to see it. Two things can be true:
I’m a lifetime losing gambler
Running hot is an incredible feeling
I’m doing it in a much more pubic forum than most, but if you bet on sports, you know what I mean. You’re probably in a group chat with some buddies, cooking up plays and parlays every week. Once in a while, someone goes on a heater. And it’s amazing. Great vibes, chat going crazy - the best. Or when you give a friend a horse and they score out, same deal. You feel like a superhero for the next 20 minutes. Then your next horse runs off the board as you mutter about how you should have bet it straight and not played a Pick 3. Been there, done that.
The reality is, the run will come to an end at some point. But you have to enjoy it while you’re in it.
Admittedly, I have a hard time enjoying things. I am the type of person who starts counting down the days until I go home the second I arrive on vacation. Like, start to count backwards in my head, “Okay, we leave on Sunday, so six days. But we’ll have to pack the night before…” This is a constant conversation in my brain. I’ve been like that since I was a kid. I guess it’s my anxiety manifesting itself in its own way. I can see my youngest son doing the same thing sometimes. It’s not healthy. I am trying to improve at being present and thoroughly enjoying the moment. And this sports betting moment has been pretty great.
Am I proud that a few winning props saved me from a complete thrashing from my boss about my lack of Red Sox blogs? Nope. Gonna try to avoid needing winning bets to stay out of the doghouse in the future.
And yes, I’ll have some losers this weekend. Maybe even some of the picks below. But I’m going to enjoy the hell out of this Thursday Night run.
Dave’s the boss. So expect plenty of Red Sox blogs as the team plays in the postseason for the first time since 2021. Here is my updated X.com profile, as per Dave’s orders. How do I get a Barstool logo next to my name like all the cool kids? Let’s keep it going next Thursday.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned Red Sox are on the verge of the playoffs. It was a fun weekend at Parx. Trying to stay hot with Week 4 NFL Picks. And a radio update in the MutStack Notes.
All ahead in this week’s Four-Pack.
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On the Red Sox getting back to the MLB Postseason…
As of Friday morning, Fangraphs says the Red Sox have a 98.8% chance of making the playoffs. Simply put, win one game this weekend against the Tigers and you’re in. If the Astros lose just one game out west against the Angels, that would get them in, too. I am not jinxing it by saying for the first time since 2021, the Local Nine will be playing postseason baseball. Wrote this in March about your 2025 Red Sox—
“Their win total is set at a consensus 86.5 across the board for 2025, and I’ll be betting an over. The total went up after the Alex Bregman signing, so we’re not getting the best line here. But if you’re a baseball fan in Boston, you should have some pretty high expectations for this year’s team.”
The Sox ended up favored to win the AL East, but that won’t happen. But making the playoffs will make this a successful season for Boston.
They made the big move for Garrett Crochet in the offseason, spent real money on Alex Bregman, and watched their superstar of the future, Roman Anthony, flourish in his first season. These are all good things.
This team has had an annoying habit of falling apart post-All-Star break. When Craig Breslow failed to land Joe Ryan, you had to fear that might happen again. But credit the players and manager Alex Cora - they stayed locked in and avoided the big swoon. By going 4-2 on this road trip, they’re in position to get back to the payoffs without much stress this weekend.
And really, it’s hard to get too upset about Thursday’s loss when you consider the Sox will have the chance to set up Crochet for Game One against the Yankees/Jays/Astros/Tigers/Guardians. Toronto is already discussing pitching Kevin Gausman on Sunday if the AL East is on the line. Yikes.
Looking at the AL, there’s no reason the Red Sox can’t make a run to the ALCS. They’ll need Crochet to continue to be awesome. And then Bello or Giolito will have to step up. And the Whitlock/Chapman Combo will have to be elite. And Bregman will have to find his first-half form. But it’s not some crazy long shot. Teams much worse than this 2025 Red Sox team have found their way into a League Championship Series.
It’s the time of year to focus on baseball - not the failures of Breslow, or the smarm level of Sam Kennedy, or the recluse owner who has not addressed the media as a group in over 2,000 days. Plenty of time for all of that in the off-season.
At some point this weekend, the Fenway home clubhouse will be soaked in light beer and champagne. If some things break their way and some guys step up, it won’t be the only time that happens for the 2025 Boston Red Sox this postseason.
On a great weekend of racing at Parx…
A few takeaways from a fun few days at Parx for the Pennsylvania Derby.
🏇🏻 I had a break before the two Grade 1 races on Saturday—the Cotillion and the Derby. In the span of an hour or so, I ran into a dozen Barstool/Kirk Minihane Show Fans who are also big into racing.
The group from Philly who needed help finding the will-plays for the Keystone Double (you’re welcome and nice score). The KMS fans who attended the Preakness, got hooked on racing, and are now part owners of a PA-bred 2-year-old. The daughter of one of the owners of a horse in the PA, Debry, and her boyfriend, fired up to be in a big race. The Stoolies along the paddock in those Jonathan Kinchen shirts, betting every race. The other group of Stoolies who told me at 11 AM to bet on Texas Tech (I didn’t listen). It was awesome.
And it confirmed what I’ve written here for two years - there is a big-time crossover between Barstool supporters and racing fans, and Dave and Elio have helped usher them in. This is an excellent thing for racing. And it’s only going to get bigger once Dave’s Go Go Grey Stable horses start running - as soon as next week.
🏇🏻 It’s criminal we don’t have a thoroughbred track in New England proper. I know, I know - if you’re a long-time reader of this newsletter, you’ve heard me complain about this a dozen times. But seeing Parx filled with fans reinforced the sheer stupidity of not having something like that close to Boston. Doesn’t have to be huge - and yes, it would be a casino/sportsbook for most of the year. But you could host 8-12 long racing weekends or short racing weeks per year. It would be glorious. This newsletter has grown over 20% since Dave bought it from me. If someone out there knows Damon Thayer, tell him to come fix racing in New England. Please.
🏇🏻 Great to see Baeza get his Grade I. Between him, Sovereignty, Journalism, Fierceness, Sierra Leone, Mindframe, Forever Young for Japan…that’s a serious classic field.
Thanks to everyone who stopped me to say hello in Pennsylvania.
On your MutStack Week 4 NFL Picks…
Week 3 Results: 2-1 | ATD Adam Thielen ❌
On the Season: 4-5 | ATD bets 1 for 3
How did that Dallas/Chicago game not go over? For all the talk about how bad the Rams +3.5 beat was, that was right there as far as brutal beats go. A nice 4-2 bounce back after the 0-3 start. Let’s try to keep it going—odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning.
The Side
PATRIOTS -5.5 VS PANTHERS (-108)
The Patriots should have won last week. Even with five turnovers, they had a shot to beat the Steelers. They should have beaten the Steelers. I see people comparing Mike Vrabel’s Patriots to the Patriots of Jerod Mayo... cut it out. Vrabel is a real coach, and this operation will continue to get better game by game, week by week.
Drake Maye has had a few brutal turnovers, but has been overall solid through three games. Carolina gave up 20+ to both the Cardinals and the Jags before a 30-0 win over the Falcons, where Atlanta had more plays and more yards … and also more turnovers. Not a lucky win by the Panthers, just fluky. Now they’re on the road against a team that is coming off a fluky loss themselves, and might get No. 1 corner Christian Gonzalez back. I’ll lay the points with the Pats, and they’re a great teaser piece to use, if you play those sorts of bets.
The Total
BEARS AT RAIDERS OVER 47.5 (-120)
The Bears and the Cowboys game should have gone over. Here I am, simpleton sports bettor, right back in line to bet the Bears over again. Playing overs, I’m looking for bad defense and fast offense.
Las Vegas Raiders: 11th-worst DVOA defense and 7th-worst DVOA passing D.
Bears: 9th-worst DVOA defesne and 11th-worst DVOA passing D.
The Bears are operating at the 3rd fastest sec/snap pace in neutral situations, per FTN’s Pace Numbers. Vegas plays slower, but they pass the ball a ton - 5th highest pass rate in the NFL through three weeks. We get the game in Vegas, a pair of bad defenses, and at least one high-speed offense; that’s good enough for me.
The Prop
JARED GOFF OVER 20.5 COMPLETIONS (-123)
The Browns' run defense has been outrageous. They’ve allowed a league-low 172 yards on 75 carries - that’s a 2.3 YPC allowed. The Lions want to run the ball with Gibbs and Montgomery, but if they can’t, Goff can clear this number easily - he already has in two of the first three games this season.
There’s a scenario where Joe Flacco throws 3 INTS, two of those pick-sixes, and we’re cooked. I know that going in. But in a reasonably close game, I like the over here.
The ATD
Matthew Golden (+230) Packers should cook this Dallas defense. Golden a pure burner and Dallas D allows big plays.
On your weekly MutStack Notes…
➡️ If you cared about Boston sports or Boston sports media, even a little, then you probably read Bruce and his work at Boston Sports Media Watch. Bruce’s website/blog/newsletter/community propped up little-known media members and called the big guys on their bullshit.
I benefited from Bruce’s kindness, as he’d occasionally write about segments I was doing on New Hampshire Sports Radio. When I landed at WEEI, he was critical of Mut and Merloni (he was not alone) but was fair. His daily list of the links from Boston media was a must-read. As one of his fans wrote me this week, “After Simmons and Deadspin, Bruce’s site was always the next hit because he always had the best of the Boston news of the day.”
We exchanged emails over the years, and he was always kind, asking about my family. He loved sports, and that passion came through in his writing about both them and the sports media, which he continued to do in newsletter form. I never met him in person, but he seemed like a genuinely good man, and his work made it easier for Boston sports fans to stay informed about the teams and the people who covered them.
My deepest sympathies to his family and friends during this difficult time.
🎙️ I wrote last week about two Boston sports radio notes that I didn’t quite have 100% confirmation of. Now I do.
For the first time since 2019, Classic Rock WZLX beat 98.5 The Sports Hub’s Felger and Mazz. With Men25-54, in August, 2-6 PM, it was:
WZLX 11.2
Felger and Mazz 10.4
WEEI Afternoons 1.8
It’s a continuation of a year-long, mostly downward trend for Felger and Mazz. It’s worse, given they had a strong lead-in from Zolak and Bertrand, who registered a 12 rating for August.
Over at WEEI, they’d probably donate a kidney for a 10.4. For August, WEEI Afternoons, with Pats camp going on and the Red Sox surging, did a 1.8.
In the first week of September, it was Felger and Mazz 10, WEEI Afternoons 1.2.
One. Point. Two. Confirmed. Not even sure what to say, as that number says it all.
🎙️ One more Felger and Mazz note. Tony told his audience they sucked (“You guys SUCK”) over and over on Wednesday, because the first two callers were negative about the Red Sox even after they cut their magic number to clinch a playoff spot down to three. Like, really? Tony Massarotti has spent a decade telling you, the Boston sports fan, that you’re not allowed to be happy about anything good that happens to your teams. Now, when he needs fans to listen to his Baseball Show as the team gets towards the playoffs, he’s mad at all those Felger and Mazz Clone Callers who have adopted his own negative schtick as their own??? Give me an effin’ break, Mazz. An amazing lack of self-awareness from a man who still has replies turned off on his X.com posts. 🙄🙄🙄
📺 I was excellent filling in for Ryan Whitney on The Unnamed Show.
⛳ An embarrassing start for NBC’s coverage of the Ryder Cup Friday morning, not showing the tee shots for the first group of the day ON THEIR SECOND HOLE. Sky Sport coverage is superior, and if you have Xfinity 4K, you’ll be able to watch the broadcast there on Saturday and Sunday.
🏈 “Teams have the right to say whatever they want,” Goodell told CNBC’s Alex Sherman. “They don’t have to disclose information if they think it’s a conflict of interest. We have a lot of former players in those meetings who are close to their former teams. Our clubs are smart enough to say, ‘I’m not sharing something with him.’”
I rarely, if ever, applaud Roger Goodell, but he’s 100% right here. This Brady conflict-of-interest story feels more about generating clicks than it does about Brady obtaining insider secrets.
🏀 I really hope Jayson Tatum’s media tour this week is much more about his partnership with a pharmaceutical company and less about actually trying to come back and play this season. Maybe he and the team are trying to sell some hope heading into training camp. Fine. Just keep him off the court until late 2026.
And with that, we have indeed said it all.
Good luck with all your bets this weekend. And go Team USA.
Thanks for reading.