Friday Four-Pack 9.5.25
The Patriots are a playoff team. A savvy PR move from Bob Kraft. NFL Week 1 Picks. MutStack notes. I'm compared to a piece of beef.
What the haters see and hear: The founder of one of the most influential brands in America and two of his most high-profile and popular employees saying that I’m not remotely interesting, so fucking boring, flatline boring, a drunk (Sup, Whit), and a host of a terrible podcast. Dave Portnoy compares me to a big piece of meat that Rocky Balboa pounds the shit out of to train for his fights.
What I see and hear: The founder of one of the most influential brands in America and two of his most high-profile and popular employees promoting my brand-new and flourishing Locked on UConn podcast on a massive platform, calling my unique skillset “invaluable,” using words like “great” multiple times, and making it clear that I’m resilient. It sounded like Dave was just about to compare me to Louis Zamperini before he told the world that I’m a guy people want to have around.
Between this incredible endorsement of me, the new podcast, and, in not-so-many-unspoken-words, the MutStack brand in general…PLUS, having NFL Football back in our lives? To quote the great George Costanza, this is the type of day that almost makes you feel good to be alive.
Happy NFL Season, everyone!!!
Meanwhile, the Patriots are going to the playoffs. Bill Belichick had a bad week, and Bob Kraft is taking advantage: You get a loaded MutStack Notes and Week 1 NFL Picks.
All ahead in today’s Four-Pack.
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On my 2025 Patriots Prediction…
Shout out GRB (Goose Rocks Beach), nicest beach I’ve ever been to in Maine or anywhere.
Four reasons the Pats are a playoff team in 2025 in under four minutes.
On that Bill Belichick statue at Gillette Stadium…
It’s not going to happen.
And if it does, Bill’s not going to be there.
“When that great 20-year era ended, it was always my intention to commission a statue for both Tommy and Bill when their respective careers were over, playing and coaching,” Kraft told Roche Wednesday at Gillette Stadium. “When Bill’s coaching career ends, we look forward to sitting down with him and having a statue made to be right next to Tommy.
Bob Kraft began his public campaign to build a Bill Belichick statue this week, when he told Dan Roche of the team’s TV partner, WBZ-TV, that, in fact, it had always been the plan.
I wrote about this in detail just a few weeks ago. To sum it up, Bill Belichick could make The Krafts look pretty bad by not agreeing to take part in any sort of Bronze Belichick presentation. And since I wrote that, we have even more evidence that Bill has no use for Bob or Johnathan Kraft. While I was busy losing every race in Saratoga, Bill said this to the Boston Globe about the difference between coaching in college and coaching in the NFL.
“There’s no owner, there’s no owner’s son, there’s no cap, everything that goes with the marketing and everything else, which I’m all for that,” Bill said. 👀👀👀
Then we got word this week that Belichick has banned New England scouts from attending UNC practices to scout their players, per the Boston Herald.
“Why would we let them in our home after how he’s been treated since he left? We will help our players, but being treated fairly is a two-way street,” a UNC athletic source told the Herald, via text.
John Middlekauff of the “3 and Out Podcast” first broke the news and noted, “If you’re a scout for the New England Patriots, you are not allowed at the University of North Carolina — which is funny, but kind of embarrassing. “People get fired. But to ban the New England Patriots is like an ‘F-you’ to Robert Kraft.”
100%, John. They’re rather potentially hurt a players draft chances than let a Pats scout in the facilities at Chapel Hill. I’m surprised that this hasn't been a more common reaction; that Belichick hates Kraft so much, he’ll hurt a UNC player’s potential draft position by blocking a team from visiting.
But let’s circle back to Kraft. Is there a chance he announced this this week because he can sense some blood in the water with Bill? Got embarrassed on TV vs. TCU. He’s being a dink to the team. Let’s announce this, show everyone how gracious I am compared to how petty he’s being, and start to win back some of the fan base that has been anti-Kraft since the Tom Brady departure, Belichick's firing, and the subsequent Jerod Mayo debacle.
I think it’s possible. And it might work to make Bill look bad. Or petty. Well, both, really. Because he’s likely to hold a grudge, he probably won't be on video later this month when the team honors Bill Parcells and Julian Edelman at the team’s Hall of Fame Event. All those people who were mad at Kraft over the last few years (and there are many), they’ll start to point their annoyance at Bill for not wanting to be part of all these amazing memories they have about the team they love. They’re sick of mom and dad fighting, and Bill will take the heat for not being able to move on. Kraft put Bill in a tough spot here. But I think BB holds on tight to that grudge and ends up wanting no part of a statue next to Brady.
What if Kraft builds one without his blessing? Ha. That would be wild.
Bad, bad week for Belichick. Found myself rooting against him on Monday night - I’m a dink, I know. Brilliant PR move by the Krafts to put some added stress on the UNC Coach.
Now all we need is a cryptic post from Lady Belichick, Jordon Hudson, to really put a tent on this circus!
On your Week 1 NFL Picks Presented by Sharp Hunter…
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Good luck this year - let’s find some winners!
The Side
FALCONS +2 VS BUCS (-110, Cesears)
Did the favorites DOMINATE last year in the NFL? They sure did, with the best ATS season since 2017. Final numbers had them 195-77 straight up - that’s over 70%! Road favorites? Freakin’ 80-28 SU. As a dog bettor, it was not a good season, and I finished UNDER .500 with my published plays here.
So let’s jump right back into a home dog to start the season. The Bucs lost offensive guru Liam Coen (shoutout UMass) to the Jags. Josh Gizzard takes over the Baker Mayfield-run unit. It’s a unit that comes in banged up, with All-Pro LT Tristan Wirfs questionable and a DNP on Thursday. He joins Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan as missing pieces.
The Falcons should be able to run the ball - Bucs DT Vita Vea also missed a second straight practice Thursday. I don’t love the idea of backing Michael Pennix Jr., but OC Zac Robinson had the entire offseason to work with the second-year southpaw, and he has plenty of weapons. Oh, and Sharp Hunter is showing plenty of sharp money on the home dog Falcons.
The Total
PATRIOTS VS. RAIDERS OVER 43.5 (-112, FanDuel)
Based on a search over on Gambly and then a quick human check by me, the only legal sportsbook in Massachusetts offering odds on Maye’s rushing yards total for next season is Caesars. They’ve posted the total at 425.5 yards, with both the over and under priced at -115.
I really like the over.
I’m already heavily invested in Drake Maye’s OVER rushing prop on the season. I told you to bet it back in June, when the line was 425.5 yards. It’s now 475.5 - 500.5 yards.
Maybe I am a sharp?
Anyway, a big season for Maye is incoming. The Raiders revamped their offense with Geno Smith and Ashton Jeanty. The Pats cut Jabril Peppers and won’t have Christian Gonzalez. There will be points as Josh McDaniels runs it up over the team that fired him. OVER.
The Prop
JORDAN LOVE RUSHING YARDS OVER 4.5 YARDS (-115, ESPN BET)
Narrative Alert! Jordan Love was hurt much of last year, and he said it impacted his running the ball. He’s healthy to start the season and faces a Lions D that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards against opposing QBs a season ago. My toxic trait, well, one of many, is QB rushing yard props. This one feels like a great way to start the season.
The Anytime TD Play of the Week
JUSTIN FIELDS +200
Everyone loves an ATTD. Will track this separately this season.
On your MutStack Notes…
🎙️As Kirk Minihane said to open today’s Four-Pack, this week was the official relaunch of Locked on UConn, featuring your humble newsletter publisher.
UConn talk every day, Monday through Friday. I hit football and basketball this week, including the big Dan Hurley news from his new book. You can follow along on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. And if you’re a UConn fan, please share it with other UConn fans. It’s a big help.
Also, UConn +6.5 over Syracuse this weekend. Go Huskies.
⚾ A HORRENDOUS week for the Red Sox. Roman Anthony is probably out for the season. Jordan Hicks sucking out-loud, again. Jeff Passan says Alex Bregman is opting out and will be one of the Top 3 free agents this winter. Bad.
🎙️ With the Patriots kicking off their season Sunday and WEEI Afternoons, along with the entire WEEI Lineup, undergoing zero change, it’s time to take the ‘L’ on that prediction. I thought for sure they’d do SOMETHING after a terrible book and bad showing for the afternoon drive show in particular. As of Friday morning, no change seems imminent.
But since you’re here, how about another potentially ‘L” prediction?
Like Audacy (owners of WEEI), Beasley Media (owners of the Sports Hub) is facing financial issues. I’m told Beasley was late in getting their Boston hosts their bonus checks from the summer, in addition to being late on some commission checks. All have been paid out, but they were late.
Is there a chance WEEI is not making any moves because Audacy is planning on merging with Beasley? Or do they know that Beasley is about to be sold and changes are coming? The company is selling off its stations in parts of Florida, and the proceeds from these sales will be used to pay down debt as the company shifts to a "digital-first" focus. Interesting.
A long shot? Sure, but it might explain WEEI’s standing pat while they get smoked, again, by the competition.
🏈 NBC Sports Boston’s Phil Perry had an interesting week. Late in the summer, he suggested on his podcast with Tom E. Curran that Steph Diggs was starting to become a “pain in the posterior” for the Patriots. Diggs didn’t talk much this offseason, and his appearance on a boat with Cardi B got a lot of run.
Diggs took the podium and spoke this week, and directly addressed Perry’s characterization.
“I was referred to as a pain in the ass, pain in the posterior, but I’m going to say exactly what it really is. Obviously I don’t want to come across as that and I’ll say this: I want to be very clear that I’m an adult. I apologize and I’m not up here to ego trip.
“I’m not up here to rub anybody the wrong way or say anything for clickbait. If I rubbed anybody the wrong way, I really want to apologize. Moving forward, obviously we have a media-to-player relationship [that I want to make] as professional as I can be.”
He actually brought up Perry and Curran by name, which is a rare occurrence. Perry and Curran addressed it on TV and their podcast, and Perry reportedly apologized to Diggs in the team’s locker room.
I give Perry credit for apologizing, saying his line was “speculative,” and calling himself “cheesy” and “a loser.” This is Year One with Mike Vrabel, and my guess is Perry (and Curran) are not looking to sour that relationship out of the gate.
There’s ZERO doubt Diggs did this as a way to call out Perry and Curran in a public forum. Perry said he actually tried to apologize a week ago, and Diggs said they’d “talk next week.” That talk came at the podium with Diggs naming Perry and Curran in front of everyone. I’m sure he felt like Phil had done the same and wanted some payback.
“If somebody calls you an asshole and then they start acting like one. . . . I won’t,” Diggs said. “That’s not me. So I want to apologize if I ever came across as an asshole to anybody. But moving forward, I kind of want to get things off on the right foot.”
Some drama for Patriots fans to watch off the field this season.
🏈 The NFL was well on its way to adding “double-box” commercials to NFL Redzone well before the move to ESPN. Hell, they started last year! I’d bet that zero people complaining about it online plan on actually canceling because of the “typically four 15-second spots per broadcast” that are directly next to game action. These are not full commercials. Those are probably coming, but not yet.
📺 I pay Xfinity for The Red Zone Channel. Do I still need RedZone with ESPN getting…RedZone? Someone please let me know in the comments. If I go to turn it on Sunday and I don’t have it, I’m going to rip what’s left of my hair out.
🏇🏻 Jason Beem is the excellent racecaller at Tampa and Colonial. He also hosts one of the best racing podcasts around. He was nice enough to have me on as a guest this week, and you know what, I think we saved horse racing. You can listen here. And if you’re a racing fan, subscribe to Jason’s pod.
🏇🏻 Fort Erie has cleared jockey Kirk Johnson of any wrongdoing for his terrible ride last month. Glad it wasn't something more than just a bad ride, and it did look bad, but it's tough to back him as a bettor in the future.
🏇🏻 Saratoga is the best race meet in the world. And NYRA has been an industry leader in giving bettors some non-CAW pools to attack. That being said, the last two years we’ve had too much Saratoga, as NYRA has added extra racing days thanks to the rebuild of Belmont Park. “We’re really looking forward to getting back to 40 days,” New York Racing Association president and CEO Dave O’Rourke said. Appears the CEO would agree. The handle for the meet was down 1.6% on 40 days of racing compared to just 39 days last year.
The bettors, too, seem to agree that you can, in fact, have too much Saratoga. From DRF, “The day-to-day all-sources handle comparison was down on 14 of the last 17 days of the season.” See you this fall at Aqueduct.
🏈 You’re probably going to bet on the NFL this weekend. Please remember it’s Week One, no one knows anything, and don’t go firing off your whole bankroll. Easier said than done, I know, but it’s ONLY Week 1.
And with that, we have indeed said it all.
Good luck with all your college and NFL bets this weekend. Football!
Thanks for reading. And watching.
Michael Mutnansky > Louis Zamperini
Where is today’s Friday Four-Pack