Jim Dandy Day Stack 7.26.25
Full-card handicap of Saratoga as the Kentucky Derby winner preps for the Travers and Mohegan Sun celebrates the horseplayer
I bet just one race on Friday’s card at Saratoga.
I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve bet one race, or zero races even, on a Friday card at Saratoga over the last…I don’t know, 20 years?
Saratoga is my favorite race meet of the year. I pour hours of work into each summer, trying to score a few times and win for the meet. It becomes both time-consuming and life-consuming.
But I couldn't muster any love for Friday’s card. It was a bad Saratoga card littered with six maiden races. There was just one winner that paid over $9.90 - a horse trained by Lisa Bartkowski, who worked for Phil Serpe but has run just six horses in her career as a trainer…and now two of them have won!
With no trip horses I was betting back and nothing appealing in the PPs, it was an easy pass day for me, even though it was a Friday at Saratoga.
But in racing - as in life - today is a new day.
NYRA has given us a super interesting 12-race slate with a bunch of fun betting races, at least on paper. The weather looks great. And we have the Kentucky Derby winner getting back to work in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun.
I give Brad Bryant and Mohegan Sun a lot of credit. As casinos and racetracks continue to push away the horseplayer, they just keep embracing them. They support racing through partnerships with NYRA to have their name on races like the Jim Dandy and the Woody Stephens.
And they continue to support horseplayers with events like Saturday’s Race Player’s Appreciation Day.
Just like you can count on one hand the number of Fridays I’ll pass on a Saratoga card, you can do the same with the number of racebooks or even racetracks in America that will be giving away thousands of dollars in free bets to their customers.
Mohegan Sun will be on Saturday, as they celebrate horseplayers in New England. And we need it, considering Massachusetts has said no to racing again, and the closest race track is 200 miles away in Saratoga Springs.
Looking forward to talking about the races with ‘The Big A’ Anthony Stabile and some loyal racing fans later Saturday at Mohegan.
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Just have to be right a few times to win today. Let’s look at Saturday’s card from Saratoga.
Race 1
Was between Otto the Conqueror and Friar Laurence, and I’ll go with the bigger price. Trainer Linda Rice had been good at claiming horses from Kentucky and running here. And it’s clear to this horseplayer that Kentucky and Churchill Downs have a much stronger dirt program than the NY circuit. This one beat Payne at a similar level last fall - Luis Saez also rode that day.
5-4-2
Race 2
A half to $800k earner, Kimbear, I’ll tab Further Ado on top. Shipped to Saratoga with a few bullet earned training at CD. Trainer Brad Cox 2yo, first-time starter, dirt, sprint SAR: 6 for his last 21, 29%, $3.81 ROI. Last five years 19% same category just at Saratoga. Soldier N Diplomat looks logical. Forever Man has some runners in his family, including 700K earner Corningstone.
6-4-7
Race 3
After bobbling last time and failing to get involved early, I’ll try Brave Buck in this low-level claimer. This guy made a small bid into the turn, then the jockey just held him together in the stretch. His race two-back wins this, and Irad sees fit to take the call. Tarpaulin had a tough start last time and fits here.
4-8-6
Race 4
Won’t spend much time trying to beat Arthur’s Ride. Last year’s Whitney winner has already shown he can win off a long layoff and has run well at Saratoga. Trademark was a pretty good horse a few years ago, and maybe his win last time woke him up a bit. Trainer Oliver had a lot of choices and shipped here with a horse that has early speed. Interesting exacta player.
1-2-3
Race 5
In an open turf sprint, I’ll try 10-1 Ready Set Twirl. Best career race came on the turf three back. Next time…well, that was not Prat’s finest ride of 2025. Now he drops in class and should be able to sit off the leader Korrongo. Trainer Malanie Giddings has two wins this meet, one of those in a turf sprint with this same jockey. Beyers fit and should be a price. Don’t settle for the chalk here.
11-9-6
Race 6
The ML favorite is trained by a trainer who is a 20% winner on the year but just a 10% winner here at Saratoga over the last five years. So, I was actively looking to bet against. I landed on #1 Roagna. Has run competitive races at this level for a year-plus. Last start was an obvious summer prep for a trainer who is 1-6, second off the layoff with these 6-month-plus breaks on the turf. BUT, he’s 4 for 6 hitting the board with those runners, with the only two failing to do it 49-1 and 57-1, respectively. Ready to fire his best race at a price, and that’s enough for me to take a swing. Have a soft spot for James H. Bond and Bond Stables, to be sure.
1-8-12
Race 7
The only filly in here with experience, Varja, also looks super quick from the gate. The trainer has strong second-start numbers and is clearly the horse to beat. Watch the board to see which firsters are getting bet. Immortalize and Tennessee Belle appear to be logical choices based on pedigree.
4-8-2
Race 8
In a statebred race on the dirt, why not a Finger Lakes shipper? Blamicker ran big last time. We’ve already seen 2x next-out winners from that race, and four runners who seem to validate the Beyer. Trainer used to pop with some prices here, but has just two wins in the last three Spa Summers - both in dirt sprints and both making their first start of the meet. Has a 23% hit rate with shippers over the last five years under these owners. Sir Kartrite might improve with Lasix for a good trainer.
4-8-9
Race 9
The three runners from the Wild Applause look tough here in this spot. Classic Q won that race, but did so on an inner turf course that was kind to speed horses on the inside. Meanwhile, Lavender Disaster had to stalk that one on the outside of the track. And Play with Fire could never run down the early speed. I like both of those better than the ML favorite here, and I’ll take the better price on top. If it’s not one of those three, maybe Good Long Cry at a price, as that one has faced good company and gets back to grass.
4-5-9
Update - Scratched into the 4 here, too bad.
Race 10 - The Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun
I’m probably being cute, but I’ll try to for the small upset with Baeza. He should have more early speed than the Derby winner on a track that plays well to inside/speed runners at this trip. Training very well for this race, and I love the confidence the connections are showing by shipping him here for this spot. This is a horse that still has some upside.
Sovereignty, of course, is the most likely winner and horse to beat. Training well, likes Saratoga, and should be able to sit a good trip. My thought is that he might not be fully cranked, as this is a clear prep for the Travers. He was in a similar spot in the Florida Derby when he was second to Tappan Street. I could see today’s race playing out like that one, where he runs well but is just second-best. It might also be true that his 85% is better than anyone’s 100% in here, and he just rolls. But at 3-1, I can back Baeza and sleep at night.
I’ll use the Top 2 as ‘As’ in the mandatory Pick 5 that ends with this race. I’ll play against Classic Q in the Lake George and hope to get my value back that way.
Mo Plex will be the early speed and he might be able to hang for a share. Sandman will be overbet, and Hill Road is just a slower version of Sovereignty.
1-5-3
Race 11
Don’t know how much of it was actually the jock’s fault, but a rough trip from Tahila at this level last time. Switches to a jockey who the trainer has three wins with already this summer. 6-1 would be a terrific price. Sassetti gets his own jockey upgrade and has run okay in two turf starts, the last one with some trouble early.
4-2-6
Race 12
Trainer Joe Sharp is a crazy 6 for 14 to start the 2025 Saratoga meet, and I like his horse here #8 Majorca. Best races have been showing speed, and this one adds blinkers after just missing at this level two-back. Sharp 25%, blinkers on, first off the claim, last five years. That includes a winner on the turf.
Edit - Tough scratch, but the race has definitely changed. I’ll take a shot with #6 Majestic Michael. Had early speed, and Justify had been a good influence on turf. Trainer is 3 for 7 early in her training career going dirt to turf. Go to the front and don’t look back.
6-10-7-11
🎪 Should be a fun card. Good luck if you’re playing, and safe trips for all. 🏇🏻
Obviously Sovereignty race on paper, but I'm going to try Mo Plex in the upset wire to wire